ARIMA Moving Average and Forecaster [SS]Finally releasing this. This took months, over 3 months to be precise, to figure out, code and troubleshoot! I honestly was going to give up on this project, but I finally got it to actually work fairly reliably. So hopefully you like it!
This is a very basic ARIMA modeler. It can do the following:
1. Provide you with an ARIMA based Moving Average;
2. Provide you with a standard error band;
3. Auto-select a lag length for assessment based on stationarity;
3. Provide you with the option of extending the error range by a user selected amount of standard deviations; and
4. Forecasting and plotting the forecast on the chart.
I will go over each function individually, but before I do, I think its important to talk a bit about what an ARIMA Model is and does:
ARIMA stands for AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Average and is an approach to modeling and time series forecasting. In simple terms, it combines autoregressive (AR) and moving average (MA) components to capture the underlying patterns in a time series data. The "AutoRegressive" part accounts for the relationship between an observation and its previous values, while the "Moving Average" part considers the relationship between an observation and a residual error from past observations. The "Integrated" component involves differencing the time series to make it stationary, which aids in stabilizing the model. ARIMA models help predict future values based on patterns observed in historical data, making them useful for forecasting in various fields such as economics, finance, and weather prediction.
The benefits to ARIMA is it will forecast based on the current trend, but it also provides for both the up and down scenario of the trend (i.e., if we are in a downtrend, what it would look like and what values we could expect if the trend reverses and vice versa). All of this is within the scope of this indicator, believe it or not!
If you would like more information on ARIMA, you can check out my educational post about it here:
Alrighty, now for the indicator functions.
ARIMA Moving Average and Standard Error Band
The ARIMA moving average is very simple, it takes the SMA of the current trend, lags it and plots out the lagged SMA. You can toggle the auto-select lag on, or you can pick your own lag manually. The above image is an auto-selected lag, but if we manually lag it by 5, this is what it looks like:
Its simply a lagged average of the 5 SMA (that is essentially how ARIMA works, by creating a moving average and lagging the moving average).
There are some implications to selecting a lag factor when it comes to forecasting, but I will cover this in the forecasting section. But I do want to make mention, you can use the ARIMA moving average in lieu of other moving averages. The advantage to doing this is it will be able to plot out the error bands. For example, if we wanted to get an ARIMA MA of the 200 SMA, we can toggle on the error bands and this is what we get:
Or the 50 MA:
NOTE: You ABSOLUTELY SHOULD NEVER use more than a lag of 4 or 5 for Forecasting (will be discussed later).
Auto-Select Lag
The indicator pulls the ARIMA modeler framework from my Forecasting library and pulls the stationarity assessment from my SPTS library. When you are doing an ARIMA model for forecasting, we need to ensure the data is stationary. Thus, if you want to forecast out the current trend, its highly recommended you select the "Auto Determine Lag Length" to find the most appropriate lag and forecast accordingly.
You can, however, chose your own lag order (model order), but this should never be above 4 or 5.
You should never select a lag of more than 5 because you are introducing too much "trendiness" into the equation, and you will get astronomical readings. ARIMA models never generally exceed a lag of 3 or 4 at most, as they are supposed be stationary and de-trended.
Extending by Standard Deviation
There is an option to select a standard deviation extension band. This is helpful for active day trading. Here is NIO extended by 2 standard deviations:
General suggestion is to only extend by 2 standard deviations and this is sufficient for most stocks.
Forecasting
The hallmark of an ARIMA model is the ability to use it for forecasting. Thus, the forecasting feature is a large portion of this indicator. You can see it displayed in the main chart above, but let's show some other examples:
NIO on the 1 hour:
TSLA on the 4 hour:
You can also display a forecasting table:
The result row shows the most likely, conservative, price at each time increment.
The Upper Confidence and Lower Confidence show what the trend would look like if it continued up or down at the current rate and the 95% confidence intervals show the values that the true source is likely to fall between at various increments in time with a 95% confidence (i.e. 95% probability that it should fall between these levels at period xyz assuming normal distribution).
The important levels, in my opinion, are the upper and lower confidence levels. These show you the current rate of decline or increase that the stock is expecting and what the trend would look like with a continuation or a reversal. This is ARIMA's biggest strength, as it has the ability to plot both outcomes assuming the current trend rate and time remains constant.
And that is the indicator! ARIMA is a bit of a complex process, but its a very powerful tool when used properly!
Troubleshooting:
One thing of note. Sometimes when autoselecting a length for forecasting, if there has been a heavy trend in one direction, you will not get the upper or lower confidence levels because of the lack of any up or down movement. In this case, manually select a lag of 3 to 5 to correct for this.
Let me know if you have any questions below and safe trades everyone!
Forecasting
MVRV Z-ScoreThe MVRV ratio was created by Murad Mahmudov & David Puell. It simply compares Market Cap to Realised Cap, presenting a ratio (MVRV = Market Cap / Realised Cap). The MVRV Z-Score is a later version, refining the metric by normalising the peaks and troughs of the data.
Forecast: PastFluxDelta PredictionThe theory is that time periods and the conditions during these periods repeat themselves. Especially if it is the same day of the week in the past, there is a high probability that price fluctuations will roughly repeat themselves.
Eternal return (or eternal recurrence) is a philosophical concept which states that time repeats itself in an infinite loop, and that exactly the same events will continue to occur in exactly the same way, over and over again, for eternity.
History does repeat itself.
The stock market is a manifest example.
Chief market strategist at Miller Tabak + Co. Matt Maley pointed out the strong resemblance between the stock market recently and that in the past.
Various scientific studies and articles show that there could be something to this theory
Most of the investors are ignoring the parallels between stocks today and "heady" years 1929, 1999 and 2007…
Post Labor Day sees investors returning to the S&P 500 near all-time highs and some dark economic shadows lurking …
So how should we regard these inescapable results?
Nietzsche said we should embrace them, accept them, and love them. Once they stop, expect them to start again.
But remember that the future is fundamentally uncertain and that past results are by no means a guarantee of future performance.
Based on this, this indicator uses historical trading data from a year, a week or a day ago and compares price fluctuations in the past with current conditions.
"Bars to predict" can be used to indicate how far into the future the indicator is looking.
"Amount of bars to show" determines how many bars are generally displayed. A high value allows you to see how accurate the method was in the past.
Weighted Alpha with Zero line indicatorDescription:
This script introduces an Enhanced Weighted Alpha Indicator, designed for traders and analysts who seek a more nuanced view of market momentum and trend strength. The Weighted Alpha is a sophisticated measure that combines the concepts of price change and consistency of trend over a specified period. This version of the indicator is enhanced with a customizable lambda value, allowing users to fine-tune the sensitivity according to their trading strategy.
Key Features:
Weighted Alpha Calculation: The script calculates the Weighted Alpha based on the daily return of the asset, adjusted by a decay factor (lambda). This provides a smoothed, long-term view of the asset's momentum.
Customizable Lambda: Users can adjust the lambda value to modify the rate at which older data decreases in relevance. A higher lambda value gives more weight to recent data, making the indicator more sensitive to recent price movements.
Zero Line Indicator: A dotted red horizontal line at the 0 value on the y-axis serves as a quick visual reference. This line helps in identifying when the Weighted Alpha crosses from positive to negative or vice versa, indicating potential shifts in market momentum.
Separate Chart Pane: The Weighted Alpha is plotted on a separate pane below the main chart, providing a clear and uncluttered view.
Usage:
Trend Analysis: A positive Weighted Alpha indicates an upward trend, while a negative value suggests a downward trend. The magnitude of the Weighted Alpha gives an idea of the trend's strength.
Crossover Signals: Watch for the Weighted Alpha line crossing the zero line. Such crossovers can signal potential trend reversals.
Customization: Experiment with different lambda values to match the indicator's sensitivity with your trading style. A lower lambda smooths out the line more, while a higher lambda makes it more responsive to recent price changes.
Conclusion:
This Enhanced Weighted Alpha Indicator is a powerful tool for traders looking to analyze and anticipate market trends with greater precision. Its customization options and clear visual representation make it a valuable addition to any trader's toolkit.
SandTigerSandTiger is an auto-counting tool that counts naturally occurring events in a price series. This version has been reduced to 377 lines of code and should run faster than previous versions. Although not shown here, I highly recommend running my 'ELB' script with SandTiger. ELB is an 'event locator' and will mark all points that SandTiger numbers - giving you visual cues as to where these points are located. ELB also displays support/resistance levels.
SandTiger is designed to be used with MAGENTA - a counting system for Forex and other markets.
MAGENTA is a free and open framework for understanding and explaining price movement in financial markets. Any materials associated with MAGENTA are strictly for educational purposes only.
SandTiger tracks Component Values, Dyads, and Sum Table Values (STV's) over straight and curved trends, allowing a trader to discern where directional shifts are likely to occur.
SandTiger requires just 3 things to function accurately:
1) A correct starting point (this will typically be an obvious trend turn high or low in a series of price moves).
2) A 'push 1' count ('push 1' runs from the starting point to the event prior to the first terminal of the first FCT or Fractured Counter-Trend).
3) A 'high prime' value (the high prime count runs from the starting point through to the second terminal of the first FCT with no skips).
FRAMEWORK OVERVIEW: 'Component' values are filtered from the prime set (including the half prime and further reductions). Once we have the comp table we add the values to get a 'total'. With the 'total' we divide and multiply by two to get two additional values. 'Derivatives' are based on various calculations using these three values.
We're looking for 'total/2' to count into either itself, 'total', 'total*2', or a derivative. Comp counts are in Tx form and counted from trend start. If the trend doesn't turn on a comp value it will likely turn on a Dyad or STV value. If that also doesn't happen it's likely you have a 'curved' trend/sequence that will turn on one of the above after moving away from its high/low. This can also be traded using SandTiger's 'Seg Terminals' skip option.
Sum tables and Dyad values are drawn from the 'primes' and Dyads use the 'push1' value as well. In a structural trend, primes are gotten by counting pushpulls 1 & 2 in 'Ti' form. Comps, Sum table values, and Dyads are equivalent, sequences can turn on either value type belonging to the 1st or 2nd prime set. Both STV's and Dyads are counted in 'Tx' form (except where count-through signals occur).
Types and antitypes correlate and are associated with a 12-count 'cycle.' (Ti = 'Terminals Included'; Tx = 'Terminals eXcluded'; both refer to FCT terminals)
THE STRATEGY:
For Structures: Trade Comps, Dyads, and STV's from sets 1 (all) and 2 (Dyads and STV's only) in the 'main' segment then on the 'carry-over' by skipping segment terminals. If a PC or cycle caps the sequence, trade that as well.
For NSM's: Trade movements that flash a signal prior to the end of the initial cycle. The mark will be the push1 value. Twelve will be the 'high prime.' Skip interrupts and trade carry-over values.
The first version of SandTiger was conceived/planned/authored by Erek A.D. and coded by Erek A.D. and @SimpleCryptoLife beginning in August 2022 and finishing in Dec. 2022
The current version was written and developed July 3, 2023 and has been refined and upgraded by Erek A.D. through Jan. 2024...
Whalemap [BigBeluga]The Whalemap indicator aims to spot big buying and selling activity represented as big orders for a possible bottom or top formation on the chart.
🔶 CALCULATION
The indicator uses volume to spot big volume activity represented as big orders in the market.
for i = 0 to len - 1
blV.vol += (close > close ? volume : 0)
brV.vol += (close < close ? volume : 0)
When volume exceeds its own threshold, it is a sign that volume is exceeding its normal value and is considered as a "Whale order" or "Whale activity," which is then plotted on the chart as circles.
🔶 DETAILS
The indicator plots Bubbles on the chart with different sizes indicating the buying or selling activity. The bigger the circle, the more impact it will have on the market.
On each circle is also plotted a line, and its own weight is also determined by the strength of its own circle; the bigger the circle, the bigger the line.
Old buying/selling activity can also be used for future support and resistance to spot interesting areas.
The more price enters old buying/selling activity and starts producing orders of the same direction, it might be an interesting point to take a closer look.
🔶 EXAMPLES
The chart above is showing us price reacting to big orders, finding good bottoms in price and good tops in confluence with old activity.
🔶 SETTINGS
Users will have the options to:
Filter options to adjust buying and selling sensitivity.
Display/Hide Lines
Display/Hide Bubbles
Choose which orders to display (from smallest to biggest)
Bias DailyThis indicator shows in a different way how to evaluate the BIAS Daily.
Evaluate yesterday's closed candle and that of the day before yesterday
The conditions are:
LONG BIAS =
Candle closed above High Candle [2 ]
- In this condition a long continuation can be considered
SHORT BIAS =
The candle closed below the low candle [2 ]
- In this condition a short continuation can be considered
IN THE RANGE =
The candle did not close below or above the Low and High candle
- In this condition it is better not to risk it
The user has the possibility to:
- Choose to show high or low BIAS levels
- Shows the Table in which the BIAS D is marked
The indicator should be used as TTrades shows in its videos, it can also be implemented in ICT strategies.
The indicator takes into consideration the last 2 candles already closed, so on the candle that is forming you can expect reactions in the Pd Array of the Candle Range , below I show examples of how to use it in Multitimeframe
BIAS LONG =
BIAS SHORT =
Fibonacci Timing Pattern IIThe Fibonacci Timing Pattern II is a price-based counter that seeks to determine medium-term reversals in price action. It is based on the following set of conditions:
* For a bullish Fibonacci timing signal II: The current close must be lower than the close prices from one and two periods ago. Simultaneously, the close price from two periods ago must be lower than the close price from three periods ago, and the close price from three periods ago must be lower than the close price from five periods ago. The Fibonacci sequence continues until the close price from thirty four periods ago which must be above the close price from fifty five periods ago.
* For a bearish Fibonacci timing signal II: The current close must be higher than the close prices from one and two periods ago. Simultaneously, the close price from two periods ago must be higher than the close price from three periods ago, and the close price from three periods ago must be higher than the close price from five periods ago. The Fibonacci sequence continues until the close price from thirty four periods ago which must be lower the close price from fifty five periods ago.
The signals of the pattern are ideally used in a sideways market or used in tandem with the trend (bullish signals are taken in a bullish market and bearish signals are taken in a bearish market).
Z-Score Forecaster[SS]Hello everyone,
I just released a neat library for Forecasting stock and equities. In it, it has a couple of novel approaches to forecasting (namely, a Moving Average forecaster and a Z-Score Forecaster). These were accomplished applying basic theories on Autoregression, ARIMA modelling and Z-Score to make new approaches to forecasting.
This is one of the novel approaches, the Z-Score forecaster.
How this function works is it identifies the current trend over the duration of the Z-Score assessment period. So, if the Z-Score is being assessed over the previous 75 candles, it will identify the trend over the previous 75 candles. It will then plot out the forecasted levels according to the trend, up to a maximum of the max Z-Score the ticker has reached within its period. At that point, it will show a likely trend reversal.
Here is an example:
This shows that SPY may go to 475.42 before reversing, as 475.42 is the highest z-score that has been achieved in the current trend.
When it is in an uptrend, the forecast line will be green, when in a downtrend, it will be red.
The forecasting line is accomplished through pinescript's new polyline feature.
In addition to the line, you can also have the indicator plot out a forecast table. The Z-Score Forecast table was formatted in a similar way to ARIMA, where it makes no bias about trend, it simply plots out both ends of the spectrum. So, if an uptrend were to continue, it will list the various uptrend targets along the way, vice versa for downtrends.
It will also display what Z-Score these targets would amount to. Here is an example:
Looking at SPY on the daily, we can see that a likely upside target would be around 484 at just over 2 Standard Deviations (Z-Score).
Its not liklely to go higher than that because then we are getting into 3 and 4 standard deviations.
Remember, everything generally should be within 1 and -1 standard deviations of the mean. So if we look at the table, we can see that would be between 466 and 430.
Customization
You can customize the Z-Score length and source. You can also toggle off and on alerts. The alerts will pop up when a ticker is trading at a previous maximum or previous minimum.
I have also added a manual feature to plot the Z-Score SMA, which is simply the SMA over the desired Z-Score lookback time.
And that's the indicator!
If you are interested in the library, you can access it here .
Thanks for checking this out and leave your questions below!
VWAP, MFI, RSI with S/R StrategyBest for 0dte/intraday trading on AMEX:SPY with 1 minute chart
Strategy Concept
This strategy aims to identify potential reversal points in a price trend by combining momentum indicators (RSI and MFI), volume-weighted price (VWAP), and recent price action trends. It looks for conditions where the price is poised to change direction, either bouncing off a support level in a potential uptrend or falling from a resistance level in a potential downtrend.
By incorporating both price level analysis (support/resistance) and momentum indicators, the strategy seeks to increase the likelihood of identifying significant trend reversals, taking into consideration both recent price movements and the current price's position relative to historical highs and lows.
VWAP (Volume-Weighted Average Price)
VWAP acts as a benchmark to determine the general market trend. It's an average price weighted by volume.
A price above VWAP is often considered bullish, and a price below VWAP is seen as bearish.
MFI (Money Flow Index) and RSI (Relative Strength Index) Parameters
MFI is a volume-weighted RSI, used to identify overbought (above 70) or oversold (below 30) conditions.
RSI is a momentum indicator that measures the magnitude of recent price changes to identify overbought or oversold conditions, similar to MFI.
The script uses standard overbought (70) and oversold (30) thresholds for both MFI and RSI.
Trend Check Function
The function trendCheck analyzes the past pastBars candles to count how many were bullish (closing price higher than the opening price) and bearish.
This function is used to assess the recent trend direction.
Support and Resistance Detection
The script calculates the highest high (highestHigh) and lowest low (lowestLow) over the last lookbackSR (50) periods to identify potential support and resistance levels.
isNearSupport and isNearResistance are conditions to check if the current price is within 0.08% of these identified levels, indicating proximity to support or resistance.
Buy and Sell Logic
Buy Signal:
The RSI crosses over the oversold threshold (30).
The MFI is also below its oversold level (30).
The current price is above the VWAP.
The recent trend (past 20 bars) has been predominantly bearish.
The price is near the identified support level.
Sell Signal:
The RSI crosses under the overbought threshold (70).
The MFI is above its overbought level (70).
The current price is below the VWAP.
The recent trend has been predominantly bullish.
The price is near the identified resistance level.
ICT Handle CounterThe "Handle Counter" is a unique TradingView script designed for ease and effectiveness in tracking price movements. It's particularly useful for traders who follow ICT methodologies. Users manually input their trade entry price, and the script then dynamically calculates and displays the number of Handles, or price changes, in a clear box above the latest candle on the chart. This real-time updating feature provides traders with crucial, current data on price movement, aiding in informed decision-making and a better understanding of market dynamics.
The "Handle Counter" script operates in the following way:
User Input: It starts by allowing you to input your trade's entry price. This is the price level from which the script will measure price movement.
Handles Calculation: The script calculates "Handles," which represent the price difference from your entry point to the current market price. This is done using a mathematical formula that finds the absolute value of this difference.
Display Mechanism: The calculated Handles are then displayed in a box, which is positioned above the latest candle on your trading chart. This box updates in real-time, giving you an ongoing view of how many Handles (price changes) have occurred since your entry point.
This script is designed to be straightforward and easy to use, providing clear, real-time information.
How to use:
Add the Indicator.
Open the Menu by clicking on the 'Settings' icon.
Navigate to the 'Inputs' tab and enter your entry price.
Click 'OK.' The indicator should immediately place a box above the latest candle, showing the current handles.
Additional Settings
Change Color of the Box
Change Color of the Font
Stock's Intrinsic Value| DCF modelScript Description
This pine script is based on a YouTube video titled: Warren Buffett: How to Calculate the Intrinsic Value of a Stock. Warren Buffett is a famous value investor who follows the principles of his mentor Benjamin Graham. He looks for companies that have strong competitive advantages, consistent earnings, and low debt. He also considers the intrinsic value of a company, which is the present value of its future cash flows, and compares it to the market price. He prefers to buy stocks that are trading below their intrinsic value and hold them for a long time.
One of the methods that Buffett uses to estimate the intrinsic value of a company is the discounted cash flow (DCF) model. This involves projecting the free cash flow (FCF) of the company for several years and then discounting it back to the present using an appropriate discount rate. The discount rate is usually the weighted average cost of capital (WACC) of the company, which reflects its cost of equity and debt. The sum of the discounted FCFs and terminal value is the intrinsic value of the company.
Lastly, a margin of safety is included when using the DCF method for stock valuation because of uncertainty and error in estimating future cash flows and the intrinsic value of the company.
When the current price is below margin of safety, it means that the stock is currently undervalued and being price at significantly below its intrinsic value.
Guideline for determining each variable in this script
FCF growth rate: This is the annual rate at which the free cash flow (FCF) of the company is expected to grow over a forecast 10-year period. You can use historical FCF growth rates, industry averages, analyst estimates, or your assumptions to project the FCF growth rate. The higher the FCF growth rate, the higher the intrinsic value will be.
Discount rate: This is the rate of return that you require to invest in the company. It reflects the risk and opportunity cost of investing in the company. You can use the weighted average cost of capital (WACC) of the company, capital pricing model (CAPM), hurdle rate, or market rate as the discount rate. The lower the discount rate, the higher the intrinsic value.
The margin of safety: Provides a cushion against errors in the valuation or adverse events that may affect the company. The margin of safety depends on your personal preference and risk tolerance. Normally is at 15% - 30%, the higher the margin of safety you set, the lower the chance that the stock will hit that level.
How to use this script
Step 1: This script only works for stocks that have financial data of free cash flow and total common shares outstanding
Step 2: Please use a yearly chart (12-month chart)
Step 3: You are required to determine a growth rate that will grow the free cash flow 10 years into the future
Step 4: You are required to determine a discount rate for the calculations
Step 5: You are required to add a margin of safety (Accounting for uncertainty)
Step 6: The rest of the calculations will be done automatically.
Disclaimer when using this script
I'm not a financial advisor
This script is for education purposes only
There are risks involved with stock market investing and investors should not act upon the content or information found here without first seeking advice from an accountant, financial planner, lawyer or other professional.
I can’t guarantee that this script will be error-free as I still consider myself a Pinescript beginner
Before making any decisions, investors should always research companies individually
I'll not be liable for any loss incurred, arising from the use of, or reliance on, this script
Limitations of this script
This script only works on the yearly chart (12 monthly charts)
The intrinsic value of a company will be negative if the company have a negative forecasted free cash flow
You need to make an educated guess about the growth rate, discount rate and margin of safety
This script uses free cash flow instead of owner's earnings (Operating cash flow - Maintenance capital expenditure), therefore it can't accurately estimate the maintenance capital expenditure.
Need at least 6 years’ worth of financial data
Market capitalisation uses total common shares outstanding multiplied by the closing price instead of using company-level total outstanding shares multiplied by the closing price
MA+ ProjectionThe "MA+ Projection" indicator is designed to visualize the potential future direction of a moving average, taking into account the impact of historical data loss. It is primarily aimed at providing a practical perspective on how moving averages could evolve as older data points are no longer considered.
Key Features:
Supported Moving Averages: SMA, EMA, WMA, VWMA, and VAWMA (Volume Adjusted WMA).
Flexible Time Span Settings: Customize the moving average length in bars, minutes, or days.
Adjustable Projection Scope: Set a percentage of the measurement to project forward.
Projection 'Cone': Show/hide the deviation and control the multiple.
Use Last Source Value: An option to add the latest known value to the moving window instead of only letting the window shrink. (Enabled by default.)
How It Works:
Given the specified parameters, it takes the selected moving average type (a known formula like SMA, EMA, or WMA), and projects the future data points by continuing to move the data 'window' forward without adding any more data. By default, it extends the average by assuming the price hasn't changed after the last bar. Alternatively, the projection can be the result of shrinking the window as it moves forward without adding any new data points.
Note:
This tool is for visual projection, not prediction. Its purpose is to aid in the analysis of potential future trends based on historical data, not to provide definitive market forecasts.
Seek liquidityGuided by ICT tutoring, I create this versatile "Seek liquidity" indicator.
This indicator shows an easy way to view the Liquidity that has been Created - Eliminated - and what liquidity is left to eliminate.
Liquidity levels appear after the sessions are over, and the lines get stuck on the candle that eliminates them.
Timing session =
//---Asian
- 18:00-00:00
//---London
- 00:00-02:00
- 02:00-05:00
- 00:00-06:00
//---New York
- 06:00-12:00
- 09.30-12.00
//---Lunch
- 12:00-13:30
//---PM
- 1.30pm - 4.00pm
- 12:00-18:00
The user has the possibility to:
- Choose whether or not to view sessions
- Choose to show levels from previous sessions
- Choose to show today's session levels
- Choose whether to view the boxes
- Choose to view the division is open daily
The indicator should be used as ICT shows in its concepts, the indicator takes into consideration both the previous and today's Liquidity, and the session levels can be used for a reversal as in the example below:
FX Forecasting Model [TrendX_]FX Forecasting Model indicator is a forecasting tool that takes advantages of macroeconomic analysis and market surveillance to predict Exchange rate movement.
*** Customize the macro data for home country (base currency) and foreign country
USAGE
This consists of 4 editable options align with 4 Forecasting Models
TrendX Model)
TrendX Model is a type of multiple linear regression, which is a statistical method that estimates the relationship between the currency exchange rate and various macroeconomic indicators.
*** Remember the 1st thing to do is to customize the macro data for home country (base currency) and foreign country, before take any further steps.
Purchasing Power Parity (PPP Model)
The PPP model is a conceptual model of currency exchange. The model illustrates how the exchange rate between two countries’ currencies is influenced by the variations in the prices of goods and services in those countries, which depend on the inflation rate. The activity of buying and selling goods and services internationally will shift the exchange rate to balance the prices in both countries.
Interest Rate Parity (IRP Model)
Interest Rate Parity (IRP) model is a theoretical model that relates the interest rates and the exchange rates of two countries. According to IRP, the difference between the forward and spot exchange rates of two currencies should be equal to the difference between their interest rates. IRP helps traders to determine the fair value of a currency pair and compare it with the market value. If the market value deviates from the fair value, then there is a potential for arbitrage or hedging.
Combined Forecast Model (Mixed Model)
Since each model has its own advantages, many people are interested in the concept of using a mix of forecasts to get better results than any single forecast. Mix Model is a method that uses different proportions of the forecasts from three models: TrendX, PPP and IRP models. The default proportion is 0.2 for TrendX, and 0.4 for both PPP and IRP. You can change these proportions according to your liking.
CONCLUSION
FX Forecasting Model Indicator is very practical for FOREX traders who wants to make informed and rational decisions based on Macroeconomic Analysis. It can help find arbitrage opportunity in currency exchange market. Accordingly, it can also be helpful for traders to use alongside other forms of Technical Analysis.
DISCLAIMER
The results achieved in the past are not all reliable sources of what will happen in the future. There are many factors and uncertainties that can affect the outcome of any endeavor, and no one can guarantee or predict with certainty what will occur.
Therefore, you should always exercise caution and judgment when making decisions based on past performance.
Advanced Buy and Sell SignalsThis script for TradingView is designed for technical traders seeking a more comprehensive and discerning market analysis. The script combines buy and sell signals from multiple popular technical indicators, providing a holistic view that can be useful for short to medium-term trading strategies. It incorporates the following features:
EMA Trend Cloud:
Two Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) are calculated: a fast EMA and a slow EMA.
A "cloud" is formed on the chart, changing color as the EMAs cross, indicating potential trend shifts.
Additional Indicators:
RSI (Relative Strength Index): Used to identify overbought or oversold conditions.
Stochastic Oscillator: Helps determine the strength or weakness of the price.
OBV (On-Balance Volume) with EMA: Combines volume and price to show how volume might be influencing price direction.
Combined Buy and Sell Signals:
Buy and sell signals are generated based on a combination of the following criteria:
Crossings of the EMAs (indicative of trend changes).
Conditions of the RSI (identifying potential market extremes).
Crossings of the Stochastic Oscillator (indicating momentum).
Crossings of the OBV with its EMA (assessing the influence of volume on price movement).
Buy signals are indicated by green triangles below the price bars, while sell signals are indicated by red triangles above the price bars.
Alerts:
The script also includes alert conditions to notify the user when potential buy or sell signals are detected.
Application:
This script is suitable for traders who utilize technical analysis and seek to confirm their trading decisions with multiple sources of information. It is particularly useful in volatile markets, where the combination of different indicators can provide more reliable insights.
Note:
It is important to remember that no script or indicator can guarantee success in trading, and one should always consider risk and conduct thorough analysis before making trading decisions.
This script is most effective when used in conjunction with fundamental analysis and a solid understanding of the market.
FVG in MACROGuided by ICT tutoring, I created this versatile indicator to scan the FVG in MACRO time.
This indicator combines the MACRO time with the Fair value GAP (FVG) in an alternative way, showing a simple way of viewing the FVG within the MACRO time, so you can have a clearer view of which direction the MACRO is influencing
''MACRO is a delivery time frame of the interbank price in which it undergoes a series of controls and is likely to move towards liquidity.''
The user has the possibility to:
- Choose the relevant MACRO time
- Choose whether to view all FVGs in the MACROS
- Choose to view only the First FVG at each MACRO
The indicator should be used as shown by the ICT in its concepts, during the MACRO time the price can consolidate or can head towards liquidity.
The probability that the direction is correct increases with respect for the FVG, in this way it is possible to evaluate the entry zone in the FVG and the Take profit zone for Liquidity
As in the following example:
TrendFriendOverview
TrendFriend (TF) combines various technical analysis components, including trend calculations, moving averages, RSI signals, and Fair Value Gaps (FVG) detection to determine trend reversal and continuation points. The FVG feature identifies potential consolidation periods and displays mitigation levels.
Features
Trend Analysis: Utilizes short and long-term Running Moving Averages (RMA) to identify trends.
Average True Range (ATR): Plots ATR to depict market volatility.
RSI Signals: Calculates RSI and provides buy/sell signals based on RSI conditions.
Fair Value Gaps (FVG): Detects FVG patterns and offers options for customization, including dynamic FVG, mitigation levels, and auto threshold.
Usage
Buy Signals: Generated based on pullback conditions, contra-buy signals, and crossovers of specified moving averages.
Sell Signals: Generated based on pullback conditions, contra-sell signals, and crossunders of specified moving averages.
Visualization: FVG areas are visually represented on the chart, and unmitigated levels can be displayed.
Configuration
Adjustable parameters for trend periods, ATR length, RSI settings, FVG threshold, and display preferences.
Dynamic FVG detection and mitigation level visualization can be enabled/disabled.
Usage Example
Trend Analysis: Identify trends with short and long-term moving averages.
RSI Signals: Interpret RSI signals for potential reversals.
FVG Detection: Visualize Fair Value Gaps and mitigation levels on the chart.
Buy/Sell Signals: Receive alerts for buy/sell signals based on specified conditions.
Disclaimer
This Pine Script code is subject to the terms of the Mozilla Public License 2.0. Use this code at your own risk, and always conduct additional analysis before making trading decisions.
Author
Author: devoperator84
License: Mozilla Public License 2.0
ICT IPDAGuided by ICT tutoring, I create this versatile indicator "IPDA".
This indicator shows a different way of viewing the “IPDA” by calculating from START
(-20 / -40 / -60) to (+20 /+40 /+60) Days, showing the Highs and Lows of the IPDA of the Previous days and both of the subsequent ones, the levels of (-20 / -40 / -60) Days can be taken into consideration as objectives to be achieved in the range of days (+20 /+40 /+60)
The user has the possibility to:
- Choose whether to display IPDAs before and after START
- Choose to show High and Low levels
- Choose to show Prices
The indicator should be used as ICT shows in its concepts.
Example on how to evaluate a possible Start IPDA:
Example for Entry targeting IPDAs :
If something is not clear, comment below and I will reply as soon as possible.
Potential Profit at ATHUsage:
Enter how much of the particular coin you are holding within the settings area.
What this indicator does:
Grabs the current All Time High (ATH).
Uses the ATH to calculate the potential profit in percentage from the current price to ATH.
Calculates the potential profit in EUR based on the percentage in the previous calculation.
Displays the above-mentioned values on the screen as labels.
You now have a forecast of the potential profit you can make when you hodl to the ATH.
Attention: "The example uses 1 coin as default.
For a calculation of your holdings, make sure you enter the amount of the current coin you are holding"
ICT Premium/DiscountGuided by ICT mentorship and help from TraderTim and its community, I created this versatile indicator to mark a "Premium/Discount" price range.
This indicator shows the Premium and Discount Zones in an alternative way, manually setting the start of the band and automatically shows the HTF and LTF FVG present only in the set band, having a cleaning of the graph from possible other distractions, so as to be able to have a clear vision clear of the set trading range
The user has the possibility to:
- Choose the start of the interval from the graph by moving the start line
- Choose to show levels 50% - 75% - 25% of the range
- Choose the color, style and size of the lines
- Choose to display FVG LTF or HTF in range
- Choose the FVG mitigation mode
The indicator must be used as shown by the ICT in its concepts, the Premium and Discount zones are nothing more than zones where the price risks retracing, and consequently we can evaluate making entries in the Premium Zone, Sell is evaluated, in the Discoutn Zone they are evaluated as Buy, taking the opposite area as Take Profit
As in the example below:
If anything is unclear, comment below and I will get back to you as soon as possible.
How to change range:
Historical Volatility StudyThe goal of this script it to provide you an idea to forecast the future momentum by looking at historical volatility.
This chart has basically three parts.
1. Three lines are there. The multi color line represents the historical annualized volatility in terms of minimum look back period . The white line represents the historical annualized volatility in terms of medium term look back period . The green line represents the historical annualized volatility in terms of longer term look back period .
2. The back ground color has three components. Green zone is the zone where overall volatility is on the lower side. Red zone is the zone where overall volatility is on the higher side. Purple zone means fluctuating volatility.
3. The multi color line has three colors. Red color means volatility moving towards extreme low. Yellow means it is moving towards extreme high. Purple means it is in normal course of action.
This tool can be used as a confirmation tool with other studies to aid you to make better decisions. For example- look at the diagram below.
Make your thorough study before making any trading decision. Thanks.
One Setup for Life ICTGuided by ICT tutoring, I create this versatile 'One Trading Set Up For Life' indicator
This indicator shows a different way of viewing the "Highs and Lows" of Previous Sessions, drawing from the current day until 09:30 AM, the time at which the Highs and Lows of the previous day's sessions can be taken into consideration for a Reversal or for a Take profit.
Levels tested after 9.30am will be blocked so you have a good and clear view of the levels affected
Timing Session =
London: 02:00 to 05:00
New York: 9.30am to 12.30pm
Lunch: 12.30pm to 1pm
PM Session: 1.30pm to 4pm
The user has the possibility to:
- Choose to view sessions or not
- Choose to show levels from previous sessions
- Choose to show today's session levels
- Choose between 08:30 and 09:30 the starting time for the Liquidity taken
- Choose to view High and Low only from the previous day
- See both the name of the Sessions and the price of the levels
The indicator must be used as ICT shows in its concepts, the indicator takes into consideration both previous sessions and today's sessions, and the session levels can be used both for a reversal and for a possible Take Profit like the example here under
Reversal =
Possible Take Profit =
If something is not clear, comment below and I will reply as soon as possible.
