Sector Rotation Hedging With Volatility Index [TradeDots]The "Sector Rotation Hedging Strategy With Volatility Index" is a comprehensive trading indicator developed to optimally leverage the S&P500 volatility index. It is designed to switch between distinct ETF sectors, strategically hedging to moderate risk exposure during harsh market volatility.
HOW DOES IT WORK
The core of this indicator is grounded on the S&P500 volatility index (VIX) close price and its 60-day moving average. This serves to determine whether the prevailing market volatility is above or below the quarterly average.
In periods of elevated market volatility, risk exposure escalates significantly. Traders retaining stocks in sectors with disproportionately high volatility face increased vulnerability to negative returns. To tackle this, our indicator employs a two-pronged approach utilizing two sequential candlestick close prices to confirm if volatility surpasses the average value.
Upon confirming above-average volatility, a hedging table is deployed to spotlight ETFs with low volatility, such as the Utilities Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLU), to derisk the overall portfolio.
Conversely, in low-volatility conditions, sectors yielding higher returns like the Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLK) are preferred. The hedging table is utilized to earmark high-return sector ETFs.
Thus, during highly volatile market periods, the strategy recommends enhancing portfolio allocation to low-volatility ETFs. During low-volatility windows, the portfolio is calibrated towards high-volatility ETFs for heightened returns.
IMPORTANT CONSIDERATION
In real trading, additional considerations encompassing trading commissions, management fees, and ancillary rotation costs should be factored in. False signals may arise, potentially leading to losses from these fees.
RISK DISCLAIMER
Trading entails substantial risk, and most day traders incur losses. All content, tools, scripts, articles, and education provided by TradeDots serve purely informational and educational purposes. Past performances are not definitive predictors of future results.
Forecasting
Fair ValueThis indicator is designed to provide a valuation perspective based on a specified length and deviations from a base value. This code calculates fair value levels relative to a chosen source (typically closing prices) using simple moving averages (SMA) or exponential moving averages (EMA). Please note that this is purely educational and should not be considered financial advice.
Key Features:
1. Valuation Calculation: The indicator computes a base value using either SMA or EMA, providing a reference point for fair value.
2. Deviation Levels: Additional levels of valuation are defined as deviations from the base value, indicating potential overvalued or undervalued conditions.
3. Currency-Specific Display: It displays valuation levels in different currency symbols based on the asset's trading currency.
4. Visual Representation: The indicator plots fair value lines and shades areas to highlight potential deviations.
5. Line Projection: A projection line shows potential future movement based on the calculated slope. This feature forecasts future price movement using a linear regression line's slope, dynamically projecting the trend forward. It provides traders with valuable insight into potential future price behavior. The implementation involves complex mathematical computations to determine the slope and iterative drawing of projected segments.
Educational Purpose: This indicator is for educational purposes only. It does not guarantee accuracy or suitability for trading decisions.
Please use caution and consider consulting a financial professional before making any investment decisions based on this indicator. Keep in mind that market conditions can change rapidly, and historical performance may not predict future results.
Price Prediction With Rolling Volatility [TradeDots]The "Price Prediction With Rolling Volatility" is a trading indicator that estimates future price ranges based on the volatility of price movements within a user-defined rolling window.
HOW DOES IT WORK
This indicator utilizes 3 types of user-provided data to conduct its calculations: the length of the rolling window, the number of bars projecting into the future, and a maximum of three sets of standard deviations.
Firstly, the rolling window. The algorithm amasses close prices from the number of bars determined by the value in the rolling window, aggregating them into an array. It then calculates their standard deviations in order to forecast the prospective minimum and maximum price values.
Subsequently, a loop is initiated running into the number of bars into the future, as dictated by the second parameter, to calculate the maximum price change in both the positive and negative direction.
The third parameter introduces a series of standard deviation values into the forecasting model, enabling users to dictate the volatility or confidence level of the results. A larger standard deviation correlates with a wider predicted range, thereby enhancing the probability factor.
APPLICATION
The purpose of the indicator is to provide traders with an understanding of the potential future movement of the price, demarcating maximum and minimum expected outcomes. For instance, if an asset demonstrates a substantial spike beyond the forecasted range, there's a significantly high probability of that price being rejected and reversed.
However, this indicator should not be the sole basis for your trading decisions. The range merely reflects the volatility within the rolling window and may overlook significant historical price movements. As with any trading strategies, synergize this with other indicators for a more comprehensive and reliable analysis.
Note: In instances where the number of predicted bars is exceedingly high, the lines may become scattered, presumably due to inherent limitations on the TradingView platform. Consequently, when applying three SD in your indicator, it is advised to limit the predicted bars to fewer than 80.
RISK DISCLAIMER
Trading entails substantial risk, and most day traders incur losses. All content, tools, scripts, articles, and education provided by TradeDots serve purely informational and educational purposes. Past performances are not definitive predictors of future results.
Symbol CorrelationThe "Symbol Correlation" indicator calculates and displays the correlation between the chosen symbol's price and another selected source over a specified period. It also includes a moving average (SMA) of this correlation to provide a smoothed view of the relationship.
Why SMA and Table Display ?
The inclusion of SMA (Simple Moving Average) with adjustable length (SMA Length) enhances the indicator's utility by smoothing out short-term fluctuations in correlation, allowing for clearer trend identification. The SMA helps to visualize the underlying trend in correlation, making it easier to spot changes and patterns over time.
The table display of the correlation SMA value offers a concise summary of this trend. By showcasing the current correlation SMA alongside its historical values, traders can quickly gauge the relationship's strength relative to previous periods.
Interpreting the Indicator:
1. Correlation Values: The primary plot shows the raw correlation values between the symbol's price and the specified source. A value of 1 indicates a perfect positive correlation, -1 signifies a perfect negative correlation, and 0 suggests no linear relationship.
2. Correlation SMA: The SMA line represents the average correlation over a defined period (SMA Length). Rising SMA values indicate strengthening correlation trends, while declining values suggest weakening correlations.
3. Choosing SMA Length: Traders can adjust the SMA Length parameter to tailor the moving average to their specific analysis horizon. Shorter SMA lengths react quickly to price changes but may be more volatile, while longer SMA lengths smooth out noise but respond slower to recent changes.
In summary, the "Symbol Correlation" indicator is a valuable tool for assessing the evolving relationship between a symbol's price and an external source. Its use of SMA and tabular presentation facilitates a nuanced understanding of correlation trends, aiding traders in making informed decisions based on market dynamics.
Previous Candle + Inside/OutsideThe script uses the previous candle of the current timeframe to assess the state of the current candle.
1. Previous candle high/low and midpoint are displayed
2. Highlights current bar if INSIDE previous candle
3. Highlights current bar if POTENTIAL OUTSIDE bar. This condition uses the logic that if the previous high/low has been swept and price then reaches previous bar 50%, then an OUTSIDE bar is possible.
4. If current candle breaks previous high/low, a label is added to identify.
5. If above condition is true and current candle color is opposite of previous, then label is highlighted to show possible bull/bear condition.
6. If current candle live price is below previous midpoint, a BEAR label is shown
7. If current candle live price is above previous midpoint, a BULL label is shown
I personally use the indicator on Daily/Weekly/Monthly charts to help with my overall market assessment. However users may find their own use for the indicator...or modify it to their own preferences.
As ever, the indicator should only be used with live trading accounts after thorough backtesting using a large data range.
London Killzone + Deviations[MK]For traders that use the London Killzone session high/low to project possible take profit targets.
The indicator will determine the current day London killzone high and low range and draw a range box to the right of the last candle on the chart. Drawing to the right of the chart keeps the workspace cleaner.
The high/low range is then used to project Standard Deviation levels above and below the London range.
Levels projected are +/- 1, 2, 2.5, 3, 4.
Users of the script should conduct proper backtesting using a large data range before applying to live accounts.
[Sharpe projection SGM]Dynamic Support and Resistance: Traces adjustable support and resistance lines based on historical prices, signaling new market barriers.
Price Projections and Volatility: Calculates future price projections using moving averages and plots annualized standard deviation-based volatility bands to anticipate price dispersion.
Intuitive Coloring: Colors between support and resistance lines show up or down trends, making it easy to analyze quickly.
Analytics Dashboard: Displays key metrics such as the Sharpe Ratio, which measures average ROI adjusted for asset volatility
Volatility Management for Options Trading: The script helps evaluate strike prices and strategies for options, based on support and resistance levels and projected volatility.
Importance of Diversification: It is necessary to diversify investments to reduce risks and stabilize returns.
Disclaimer on Past Performance: Past performance does not guarantee future results, projections should be supplemented with other analyses.
The script settings can be adjusted according to the specific needs of each user.
The mean and standard deviation are two fundamental statistical concepts often represented in a Gaussian curve, or normal distribution. Here's a quick little lesson on these concepts:
Average
The mean (or arithmetic mean) is the result of the sum of all values in a data set divided by the total number of values. In a data distribution, it represents the center of gravity of the data points.
Standard Deviation
The standard deviation measures the dispersion of the data relative to its mean. A low standard deviation indicates that the data is clustered near the mean, while a high standard deviation shows that it is more spread out.
Gaussian curve
The Gaussian curve or normal distribution is a graphical representation showing the probability of distribution of data. It has the shape of a symmetrical bell centered on the middle. The width of the curve is determined by the standard deviation.
68-95-99.7 rule (rule of thumb): Approximately 68% of the data is within one standard deviation of the mean, 95% is within two standard deviations, and 99.7% is within three standard deviations.
In statistics, understanding the mean and standard deviation allows you to infer a lot about the nature of the data and its trends, and the Gaussian curve provides an intuitive visualization of this information.
In finance, it is crucial to remember that data dispersion can be more random and unpredictable than traditional statistical models like the normal distribution suggest. Financial markets are often affected by unforeseen events or changes in investor behavior, which can result in return distributions with wider standard deviations or non-symmetrical distributions.
Tweet/X Post Timestamp - By LeviathanThis script allows you to generate visual timestamps of X/Twitter posts directly on your chart, highlighting the precise moment an X post/tweet was made. All you have to do is copy and paste the post URL.
◽️ Use Cases:
- News Trading: Traders can use this indicator to visually align market price actions with news or announcements made on X (formerly Twitter), aiding in the analysis of news impact on market volatility.
- Behavioral Analysis: Traders studying the influence of social media on price can use the timestamps to track correlations between specific posts and market reactions.
- Proof of Predictions: Traders can use this indicator to timestamp their market forecasts shared on X (formerly Twitter), providing a visual record of their predictions relative to actual market movements. This feature allows for transparent verification of the timing and accuracy of their analyses
◽️ Process of Timestamp Calculation
The calculation of the timestamp from a tweet ID involves the following steps:
Extracting the Post ID:
The script first parses the input URL provided by the user to extract the unique ID of the tweet or X post. This ID is embedded in the URL and is crucial for determining the exact posting time.
Calculating the Timestamp:
The post ID undergoes a mathematical transformation known as a right shift by 22 bits. This operation aligns the ID's timestamp to a base reference time used by the platform.
Adding Base Offset:
The result from the right shift is then added to a base offset timestamp (1288834974657 ms, the epoch used by Twitter/X). This converts the processed ID into a UNIX timestamp reflecting the exact moment the post was made.
Date-Time Conversion:
The UNIX timestamp is further broken down into conventional date and time components (year, month, day, hour, minute, second) using calculations that account for leap years and varying days per month.
Label Placement:
Based on user settings, labels displaying the timestamp, username, and other optional information such as price changes or pivot points are dynamically placed on the chart at the bar corresponding to the timestamp.
Psychosis - BitcoinPsychosis - Bitcoin is a cutting-edge TradingView indicator inspired by the "spiderline" methodology, which has gained acclaim for its precision in marking critical market junctures. Our script uniquely adapts this method by plotting key lines from significant price movements between 2018 and the peak of 2019. Remarkably, these lines have not been updated since 2019, yet the market continues to respect them, highlighting their continued relevance and effectiveness.
Key Features:
Persistent Historical Lines: This indicator leverages lines established from 2018 to 2019, which continue to be pivotal in market analysis, demonstrating the enduring influence of these historical levels on current price action.
Dynamic Customization: Users can tailor the visibility, color, and width of the lines to match their trading preferences, ensuring a seamless integration into personal trading strategies.
Strategic Trade Boxes: Based on the proximity of current prices to these historical lines, our script automatically plots color-coded 'Buy' and 'Sell' boxes, simplifying the decision-making process by providing clear visual cues for potential trades.
Benefits:
Enhances technical analysis by using time-tested support and resistance lines that remain pertinent, providing traders with a reliable foundation for predicting price movements.
Adaptable to multiple markets, proving the method's robustness and wide-ranging applicability beyond just the cryptocurrency sector.
Intuitive visual aids and customization features make it easy for traders to adapt their strategies quickly, especially useful in the fast-paced cryptocurrency market.
Usage Guide:
To utilize this indicator, add it to your Bitcoin chart from the TradingView library. Configure the settings as desired, and employ the historical spiderlines along with the buy/sell boxes to pinpoint strategic trading opportunities. These lines serve as a guide for potential market responses, aiding in more informed trading decisions.
Originality and Utility:
"Psychosis - Bitcoin" revitalizes the traditional spiderline approach by focusing on historically significant lines that have proven their value over time, without the need for constant updates. This enduring relevance makes our script an indispensable tool for traders looking to leverage historical data for future gains.
Yield Curve SpaghettiDisplays the difference in yield between multiple bond pairs for a given country.
Currently supports US, DE, and GB bonds
Edge AI Forecast [Edge Terminal]This indicator inputs the previous 150 closing prices in a simple two-layer neural network, normalizes the network inputs using a sigmoid function, uses a feedforward calculation to send it to the second layer, shows the MSE loss curve and uses both automatic and manual backpropagation (user input) to find the most likely forecast values and uses the analog forecasting algorithm to adjust and optimize the data furthermore to display potential prices on the chart.
Here's how it works:
The idea behind this script is to train a simple neural network to predict the future x values based on the sample data. For this, we use 2 types of data, Price and Volume.
The thinking behind this is that price alone can’t be used in this case because it doesn’t provide enough meaningful pattern data for the network but price and volume together can change the game. We’re planning to use more different data sets and expand on this in the future.
To avoid a bad mix of results, we technically have two neural networks, each processing a different data type, one for volume data and one for price data.
The actual prediction is decided by the way price and volume of the closing price relate to each other. Basically, the network passes the price and volume and finds the best relation between the two data set outputs and predicts where the price could be based on the upcoming volume of the latest candle.
The network adjusts the weights and biases using optimization algorithms like gradient descent to minimize the difference between the predicted and actual stock prices, typically measured by a loss function, (in this case, mean squared error) which you can see using the error rate bubble.
This is a good measure to see how well the network is performing and the idea is to adjust the settings inputs such as learning rate, epochs and data source to get the lowest possible error rate. That’s when you’re getting the most accurate prediction results.
For each data set, we use a multi-layer network. In a multi-layer neural network, the outputs of neurons in one layer serve as inputs to neurons in the next layer. Initially, the input layer of the neural network receives the historical data. Each input neuron represents a feature, such as previous stock prices and trading volumes over a specific period.
The hidden layers perform feature extraction and transformation through a series of weighted connections and activation functions. Each neuron in a hidden layer computes a weighted sum of the inputs from the previous layer, applies an activation function to the sum, and passes the result to the next layer using the feedforward (activation) function.
For extraction, we use a normalization function. This function takes a value or data (such as bar price) and divides it up by max scale which is the highest possible value of the bar. The idea is to take a normalized number, which is either below 1 or under 2 for simple use in the neural network layers.
For the activation, after computing the weighted sum, the neuron applies an activation function a(x). To introduce non-linearity into the model to pass it to the next layer. We use sigmoid activation functions in this case. The main reason we use sigmoid function is because the resulting number is between 0 to 1 and is better for models where we have to predict the probability as an output.
The final output of the network is passed as an input to the analog forecasting function. This is an algorithm commonly used in weather prediction systems. In this case, this is used to make predictions by comparing current values and assuming the patterns might repeat in the future.
There are many different ways to build an analog forecasting function but in our case, we’re used similarity measurement model:
X, as the current situation or set of current variables.
Y, as the outcome or variable of interest.
Si as the historical situations or patterns, where i ranges from 1 to n.
Vi as the vector of variables describing historical situation Si.
Oi as the outcome associated with historical situation Si.
First, we define a similarity measure sim(X,Vi) that quantifies the similarity between the current situation X and historical situation Si based on their respective variables Vi.
Then we select the K most similar historical situations (KNN Machine learning) based on the similarity measure sim(X,Vi). We denote the rest of the selected historical situations as {Si1, Si2,...Sik).
Then we examine the outcomes associated with the selected historical situations {Oi1, Oi2,...,Oik}.
Then we use the outcomes of the selected historical situations to forecast the future outcome Y^ using weighted averaging.
Finally, the output value of the analog forecasting is standardized using a standardization function which is the opposite of the normalization function. This function takes a normalized number and turns it back to its original value by multiplying it by the max scale (highest value of the bar). This function is used when the final number is produced by the network output at the end of the analog forecasting to turn the final value back into a price so it can be displayed on the chart with PineScript.
Settings:
Data source: Source of the neural network's input data.
Sample Bars: How many historical bars do you want to input into the neural network
Prediction Bars: How many bars you want the script to forecast
Show Training Rate: This shows the neural network's error rate for the optimization phase
Learning Rate: how many times you want the script to change the model in response to the estimated error (automatic)
Epochs: the network cycle or how many times you want to run the data through the network from the first layer to the last one.
Usage:
The sample bars input determines the number of historical bars to be used as a reference for the network. You need to change the Epochs and Learning Rate inputs for each asset and chart timeframe to get the lowest error rate.
On the surface, the highest possible epoch and learning rate should produce the most effective results but that's not always the case.
If the epochs rate is too high, there is a chance we face overfitting. Essentially, you might be over processing good data which can make it useless.
On the other hand, if the learning rate is too high, the network may overshoot the optimal solution and diverge. This is almost like the same issue I mentioned above with a high epoch rate.
Access:
It took over 4 months to develop this script and we’re constantly improving it so it took a lot of manpower to develop this script. Also when it comes to neural networks, Pine Script isn’t the most optimal language to build a neural network in, so we had to resort to a few proprietary mathematical formulas to ensure this runs smoothly without giving out an error for overprocessing, specially when you have multiple neural networks with many layers.
The optimization done to make this script run on Pine Script is basically state of the art and because of this, we would like to keep the code closed source at the moment.
On the other hand we don’t want to publish the code publicly as we want to keep the trading edge this script gives us in a closed loop, for our own small group of members so we have to keep the code closed. We only accept invites from expert traders who understand how this script and algo trading works and the type of edge it provides.
Additionally, at the moment we don’t want to share the code as some of the parts of this network, specifically the way we hand the data from neural network output into the analog method formula are proprietary code and we’d like to keep it that way.
You can contact us for access and if we believe this works for your trading case, we will provide you with access.
Nadaraya-Watson Probability [Yosiet]The script calculates and displays probability bands around price movements, offering insights into potential market trends.
Setting Up the Script
Window Size: Determines the length of the window for the Nadaraya-Watson estimation. A larger window smooths the data more but might lag current market conditions.
Bandwidth: Controls the bandwidth for the kernel regression, affecting the smoothness of the probability bands.
Reading the Data Table
The script dynamically updates a table positioned at the bottom right of your chart, providing real-time insights into market probabilities. Here's how to interpret the table:
Table Columns: The table is organized into three columns:
Up: Indicates the probability or relative change percentage for the upper band.
Down: Indicates the probability or relative change percentage for the lower band.
Table Rows: There are two main rows of interest:
P%: Shows the price change percentage difference between the bands and the closing price. A positive value in the "Up" column suggests the upper band is above the current close, indicating potential upward momentum. Conversely, a negative value in the "Down" column suggests downward momentum.
R%: Displays the relative inner change percentage difference between the bands, offering a measure of the market's volatility or stability within the bands.
Utilizing the Insights
Market Trends: A widening gap between the "Up" and "Down" percentages in the "P%" row might indicate increasing market volatility. Traders can use this information to adjust their risk management strategies accordingly.
Entry and Exit Points: The "R%" row provides insights into the relative position of the current price within the probability bands. Traders might consider positions closer to the lower band as potential entry points and positions near the upper band as exit points or take-profit levels.
Conclusion
The Nadaraya-Watson Probability script offers a sophisticated tool for traders looking to incorporate statistical analysis into their trading strategy. By understanding and utilizing the data presented in the script's table, traders can gain insights into market trends and volatility, aiding in decision-making processes. Remember, no indicator is foolproof; always consider multiple data sources and analyses when making trading decisions.
Mag7 IndexThis is an indicator index based on cumulative market value of the Magnificent 7 (AAPL, MSFT, NVDA, TSLA, META, AMZN, GOOG). Such an indicator for the famous Mag 7, against which your main security can be benchmarked, was missing from the TradingView user library.
The index bar values are calculated by taking the weighted average of the 7 stocks, relative to their market cap. Explicitly, we are multiplying each bar period's total outstanding stock amount by the OHLC of that period for each stock and dividing that value by the combined sum of outstanding stock for the 7 corporations. OHLC is taken for the extended trading session.
The index dynamically adjusts with respect to the chosen main security and the bars/line visible in the chart window; that is, the first close value is normalized to the main security's first close value. It provides recalculation of the performance in that chart window as you scroll (this isn't apparent in the demo chart above this description).
It can be useful for checking market breadth, or benchmarking price performance of the individual stock components that comprise the Magnificent 7. I prefer comparing the indicator to the Nasdaq Composite Index (IXIC) or S&P500 (SPX), but of course you can make comparisons to any security or commodity.
Settings Input Options:
1) Bar vs. Line - view as OHLC colored bars or line chart. Line chart color based on close above or below the previous period close as green or red line respectively.
2) % vs Regular - the final value for the window period as % return for that window or index value
3) Turn on/off - bottom right tile displaying window-period performance
Inspired by the simpler NQ 7 Index script by @RaenonX but with normalization to main security at start of window and additional settings input options.
Please provide feedback for additional features, e.g., if a regular/extended session option is useful.
US CPIIntroducing "US CPI" Indicator
The "US CPI" indicator, based on the Consumer Price Index (CPI) of the United States, is a valuable tool for analyzing inflation trends in the U.S. economy. This indicator is derived from official data provided by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) and is widely recognized as a key measure of inflationary pressures.
What is CPI?
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a measure that examines the average change in prices paid by consumers for a basket of goods and services over time. It is an essential economic indicator used to gauge inflationary trends and assess changes in the cost of living.
How is "US CPI" Calculated?
The "US CPI" indicator in this script retrieves CPI data from the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) using the FRED:CPIAUCSL symbol. It calculates the rate of change in CPI over a specified period (typically 12 months) and applies technical analysis tools like moving averages (SMA and EMA) for trend analysis and smoothing.
Why Use "US CPI" Indicator?
1. Inflation Analysis: Monitoring CPI trends provides insights into the rate of inflation, which is crucial for understanding the overall economic health and potential impact on monetary policy.
2. Policy Implications: Changes in CPI influence decisions by policymakers, central banks, and investors regarding interest rates, fiscal policies, and asset allocation.
3. Market Sentiment: CPI data often impacts market sentiment, influencing trading strategies across various asset classes including currencies, bonds, and equities.
Key Features:
1. Customizable Smoothing: The indicator allows users to apply exponential moving average (EMA) smoothing to CPI data for clearer trend identification.
2. Visual Representation: The plotted line visually represents the inflation rate based on CPI data, helping traders and analysts assess inflationary pressures at a glance.
Sources and Data Integrity:
The CPI data used in this indicator is sourced directly from FRED, ensuring reliability and accuracy. The script incorporates robust security protocols to handle data requests and maintain data integrity in a trading environment.
In conclusion, the "US CPI" indicator offers a comprehensive view of inflation dynamics in the U.S. economy, providing traders, economists, and policymakers with valuable insights for informed decision-making and risk management.
Disclaimer: This indicator and accompanying analysis are for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Users are encouraged to conduct their own research and consult with professional advisors before making investment decisions.
Evolving RThe "Evolving R" script is a script that allows to calculate a dynamic reward-to-risk ratio at any given point of time during the trade. Its fundamentals are based on Tom Dante's concept of an evolving reward-to-risk. The script requires a user to input their preferred stop loss price and the target price for a specific asset, and calculates the ratio between two differences: (a) the absolute difference between the target price and the current price and (b) the absolute difference between the stop loss price and the current price.
The output of the script displays the ratio discussed as a value called "Evolving R" in the table. In order to use it successfully, the user of the script has to input:
(a) Stop loss price for the asset
(b) Target price for the asset
Theoretically, as long as the evolving R value holds above or equal to 0.25, the trade is worth holding. However, if the evolving R value drops below 0.25, the table turns red and signifies that such a trade possesses more risk than there is a reward remaining: this alerts the user to possibly take profits prematurely without risking their unrealized gains for a minor amount of additional gain.
The graphics of the script are represented by green and red areas: the green area indicates the area between the current price and the target price, while the red area shows the distance between the current price and the stop loss price. This visual representation allows users to understand the relative reward-to-risk ratio graphically in addition to the given evolving R value output.
The script is used for any type of trading: whether trend-trading or in a ranging market, it doesn't suggest a user which market conditions they should use.
STIC bullish and bearish hunter with FVGSmart Trading and Investment Companion (STIC) is a sophisticated tool designed to identify and visualize inducement, market structure, market trends, track liquidity, and project and forecast price action for all applicable assets. it has been tested to work on all timeframes and has been traded on stock, forex, and crypto assets.
This script is an upgraded version of previous STIC indicator, which you can use in addition to it or separately as you deem fit
Traders/ investor that are familiar with market structure, inducement, candlestick psychology, trend-following indicatorsand Fair Value Gap FVG will find it easy to adopt this trading and investment companion. As stated below, this is how it works.
Features and how to use
1st of all, after adding the indicator to yoursuperchart, you want to endusre to set your to so as to enable you see the text labeling clearly. to do that, after adding the indicator to your chart, right click it on the list, you will se the Visual order option.
Special Extreme Alert!
By analyzing the trends and dimensions, we are able to predict market extremes conditions, especially in pump and dump scenarios. (the bullish or bearish P/D extreme alerts).
Market flip arrow
The arrows trigger to indicate when the market flips to bullish (green) or bearish (red) conditions. note that this arrow is just a market flip confirmation and it it triggered by market trends, it does not come one time and sometimes later after market trigger conditions had been met.
circled in white.
Buy or sell potential {The tiny yelow(sell) and blue(buy) triangle}
By analyzing market extreme conditions, market sentiment, and liquidity, the buy/sell potential alert trigger is able to determine the state of the market, This can and should be used in combination with the market flip line (MFL) [the yellow line from , market flip trigger (MFT) (purple line), and market support/resistance line (MSR)(blue line) .
Market flip Line (Blue line) (MFL): the MFL is useful to also understand the market phase; a candle close above the MFL is bullish, while a candle close Below, the MFL is bearish. You are, however, expected to experience market retests and rejections coupled with support and resistance to follow through with the predicted direction. Patience is a valuable virtue in trading.
Extended sell or buy hunt (Red and Green Triangle)
this is real-time triangles indicator just like every other indicator on theis chart that indicates the market direction labeled with buy and sell. Note that the market-extended extreme can occur multiple times in the same direction. Hence, we'll advise having multiple trade entries.
The flip support line
Market Flip Trigger Line (MFTL) (Magenta): When the market crosses and closes below or above the Market Flip Trigger Line, you should wait for a confirmation. a confirmation is usually a retest or rejection of the line. A candle close and reject indicates the market as flip direction and it is going for a correction or major reversal. it is applicable on all timeframe.
As mentioned earlier, if you understand market structure and sentiment, using the uFVG, iFVG, upLQTY, downLQTY and BOS will be easy. however, this is how it works, you may need tohave and expanded readbout market structure for additional knowledge.
upLQTY (Bullish liquidity inducement)
The indicator appear at the close and confirmation on the 3rd candle and it is extended to only appear on 200 bars applicable on all timeframes.
This is a bullish sentiment and liquidty inducement order block that occurs, leading to the break of trend structure and change of character. Meaning the market sentiment as change which is backed up by liquidity in that region, which mostly gets filled, especially on lower timeframes before the price action continues. If price revese breaks and hold above this region, it invalidates the order block. This will always appear when there is a confirmed change of character CHoCH to the bullish side.
downLQTY (Bearish liquidity inducement) The indicator appear at the close and confirmation on the 3rd candle and it is extended to only appear on 200 bars applicable on all timeframes. It is and inverse of the upLQTY.
like order block, these are supply and demand zones that has the potential to change the direction of a trade. This is a bearish order block that occurs, leading to the break of structure and change of character. Meaning there is bearish liquidity yet to be accounted for in the region, which mostly gets filled, especially on lower timeframes before the price action continues. If broken, it invalidates the order block. This will always appear when there is a confirmed change of character from CHoCH to the bearish side.
Fair Value Gap
From general knowledge, FVG also know as Fair value gaps are inbalnace created by a 3 candlestick pattern where the top of the bottom candles doesn't cross the bottom of the top candle. like order block, these are supply and demand zones that has the potential to change the direction of a trade. This mostly indicate the presense of big plays in the market. for STIC indicator, FVG are labeled as listed below;
UFVG, also FVGup, {Colour green box} = bullish imbalance fair value gap
IFVG, aka FVGdown, {Red box} = bearish imbalance fair value gap
OIFVG, {Yellow box, no label} = other imbalances fair value gab
You should not that FG has upper, lower and middle band, any of the this area can be induced and filled by price.
Alert Conditions!
Buy alert conditions
- Any bullish buy alert
- Bullish hunt
- Re-entry Buy
- Sharp Market Sell rejection
- Buy potential
- upLQTY
Long position Exit conditions
- ExtremeB
- Profit
- Sell hunt
The Entry, exit and trail profit alert trigger should be used as position exit conditions either for a Long (Buy) or Short (Sell) situation and should be set as OPB (Once Per Bar). Using it as entry for exit or vice versa as shown not to be very profitable. hence the need to combine with other order entry alerts like the Any bullish or Bearish alerts
Sell alert conditions ( NOTE: All Sell alert are not yet included in this current version as this is targeted towards bullrun.)
- Sell potential
- Sell triangle (Sell hunt)
- downLQTY
and any trail profit alert, this alert put into consideration all the conditions required to trail profit.
Risk management advice
Patience and a good risk management strategy are required to be profitable trader using this tool. You need to ensure not to overleverage, and you should have multiple entries in case the buy coditions/alert shows again below the previous buy alert before a sell condition/alert occurs.
[KVA] ICT Dealing rangesNaive aproach of Dynamic Detection of Dealing Ranges:
The script dynamically identifies dealing ranges based on sequences of upward or downward price movements. It uses arrays to track the highest highs and lowest lows after detecting two consecutive up or down bars, a fundamental step towards understanding market structure and potential shifts in momentum.
ICT Concept: Order Blocks & Fair Value Gaps. This aspect can be linked to the identification of order blocks (bullish or bearish) and fair value gaps. Order blocks are essentially the last bearish or bullish candle before a significant price move, which this script could approximate by identifying the highs and lows of potential reversal zones.
Red and Green Ranges for Bullish and Bearish Movements:
The script separates these movements into red (bearish) and green (bullish) ranges, effectively categorizing potential areas of selling and buying pressure.
ICT Concept: Liquidity Pools. Red ranges could be indicative of areas where selling might occur, potentially leading to liquidity pools below these ranges. Conversely, green ranges might indicate potential buying pressure, with liquidity pools above. These areas are critical for ICT traders, as they often represent zones where price may return to "hunt" for liquidity.
Horizontal Lines for High and Low Points:
The indicator draws horizontal lines at the high and low points of these ranges, offering visual cues for significant levels.
ICT Concept: Breaker Blocks & Mitigation Sequences. The high and low points of these ranges can be seen as potential breaker blocks or areas for future mitigation sequences. In ICT terms, breaker blocks are areas where institutional orders have overwhelmed retail stop clusters, creating potential entry points for trend continuation or reversal. The high and low points marked by the indicator could serve as references for these sequences, where price might return to retest these levels.
Customizability and Historical Depth:
With inputs like rangePlot and maxBarsBack, the indicator allows for customization of the number of ranges to display and how far back in the chart history it looks to identify these ranges. This flexibility is crucial for tailoring the analysis to different trading strategies and timeframes.
ICT Concept: Market Structure Analysis. The ability to adjust the depth and number of ranges plotted caters to a detailed market structure analysis, an essential component of ICT methodology. Traders can adjust these parameters to better understand the distribution of buying and selling pressure over time and how actions have shaped price movements.
ATR Price Targets w/POC
ATR Price Targets with Point of Control (POC):
This script is designed to help traders identify key price target levels based on configurable multipliers of the the Average True Range (ATR) and the volume based Point of Control (POC). It is intended for intraday traders looking to capture significant price movements.
Features:
ATR Price Targets: The script calculates three levels of price targets above and below the first bar of the day, based on the ATR of the last 22 days (assuming 5-minute candles). These targets are adjustable through the settings, allowing traders to set their own ATR multipliers.
Point of Control (POC): The POC is determined as the price level of the highest volume bar since the start time, providing an indication of the most traded price within the specified period.
Customizable Start Time: Traders can set their desired start time for the calculation of price targets and POC, allowing for flexibility in aligning the indicator with their trading strategy.
Plot Lines: The ATR price targets are plotted as lines for easy visualization on the chart.
Usage:
The ATR price targets can be used as potential take-profit or stop-loss levels.
The POC can serve as a key level for assessing market sentiment and potential reversals.
Traders can adjust the ATR multipliers and start time based on their specific trading style and market conditions.
Settings:
ATR Price Targets 1, 2, 3: Adjust the multipliers for the ATR price targets. By default, these are set to 1*ATR for T1+/T1-, 3*ATR for T2+/T2- and ATR*6 for T3+/T3-. Adjust with caution as the price targets found in defaults have proven to be more accurate over intraday cycles for volatile stocks.
Start Hour & Start Minute: Set the starting hour and minute for the calculations. By default, these are set to the opening 5 minute intraday bar, but can also be set to the opening bar of pre-market hours.
WinningWave - Devrim - By [Sercan.B]WinningWave - Devrim is an extremely advanced technical analysis tool designed to understand fluctuations in the financial markets and provide investors with reliable buying and selling decisions based on this information. This tool integrates various analysis methods to detect market trends and potential reversal points.
Fundamentally, WinningWave - Devrim deeply examines market movements using ZigZag analyses, harmonic pattern recognition, and various indicators such as RSI. ZigZag analyses filter out the noise of short-term price movements, offering a cleaner view of market trends and identifying significant peaks and troughs. The harmonic pattern recognition feature utilizes the recurring nature of specific price patterns to indicate potential buying and selling areas. These patterns provide clues about the possible future directions of price movements.
The strength of WinningWave - Devrim lies not only in identifying specific patterns and trends but also in presenting this information in a way that can be integrated into investors' strategies. Investors can clearly see when to enter or exit the market, thanks to the visual signals and patterns provided by the indicator.
Moreover, WinningWave - Devrim offers a set of customizable settings according to user preferences. This feature is critical for adapting to different market conditions and investment strategies. For example, an investor can adjust the ATR period, which measures volatility, to receive the most suitable signals for the current market condition.
Thanks to the specially tailored artificial intelligence coding for pattern finding for each time period, it alerts the user as a formation by analyzing the possible start and end areas of Trends specific to time periods. Additionally, a buy and sell signal compatible with harmonic pattern-based trend scanning technique accompanies harmonic formations. The buy or sell signal that comes immediately after the formation is created provides detailed awareness for the user to enter or exit the game.
The option to set separate alerts for the formation of each pattern and for every buy-sell signal frees users from the necessity of monitoring the screen constantly.
Lastly, WinningWave - Devrim offers investors a broad perspective for market analysis. With this tool, investors can identify market trends, potential reversal points, and buying and selling opportunities, optimize risk management, and apply their investment strategies more consciously.
Note: In line with my principle of personal neutrality, the description and usage of the indicator have been written by analyzing the codes through ChatGPT.
- Adhering to buy and sell signals is crucial for securing transactions at points where harmonic patterns form. This importance stems from the fact that the legs of harmonic formations can extend according to Fibonacci values. In other words, a harmonic formation signal does not have to occur immediately when it is received. Therefore, buy and sell signal labels, transformed into signals with settings compatible with formations and based on ATR, aim to minimize the margin of error in transactions.
- Harmonic formations are an analysis method in financial markets that is based on specific mathematical properties and ratios of price movements. These formations rely on mathematical concepts such as the Fibonacci number sequence and are used to predict how price movements may behave in the future. The idea behind harmonic formations is that certain patterns tend to repeat in market price movements. These patterns are used to identify potential buying and selling points.
- Paintings are representative. It was drawn for those who cannot see that zigzag lines and formation labels create mathematics and a formation.
- The Super Trend ATR (Average True Range) is a popular trend-following indicator used in financial markets. This indicator creates a line that moves above or below the price as a function of the Average True Range (ATR), indicating the direction of the trend. The Super Trend is used both to determine the direction of the trend and to identify potential entry and exit points.
The Super Trend indicator is based on two main parameters: a period of the ATR and a multiplier. The indicator measures the volatility of price movements over the specified ATR period and applies a multiplier based on this volatility. Then, this calculated value is placed above or below the price to determine the direction of the trend. If the price is above the line, the market is considered to be in an uptrend, and if below, in a downtrend.
Buy and Sell signals were written in the most compatible way with harmonic formations for the Super Trend ATR and adjusted according to the most accurate areas of Fibonacci values. Thus, if the signal following the formation of harmonic formations is entering an uptrend or downtrend, it helps us find the most suitable entry and exit points.
- Zigzag Indicator
The Zigzag indicator is a tool that filters out minor price fluctuations and noise to better see the direction of price movements. This indicator ignores price movements until they reach a specified percentage change and only connects the movements that exceed this change with a line. As a result, investors can more easily identify the main trends and potential reversal points in the market.
The Zigzag indicator is particularly effective in identifying the maximum and minimum points in the market and when used in conjunction with other technical analysis tools like Fibonacci retracement.
Pivot Points
Pivot points are a type of indicator used to determine the general trend of the market. This calculation is made using the high, low, and closing prices of the previous period. The basic pivot point is calculated by taking the average of these three values. Around this basic pivot point, resistance and support levels are also calculated. Resistance levels represent potential obstacles that the price may encounter moving upwards, while support levels represent potential "floor" areas when the price is moving downwards.
Pivot points are especially useful for daily trading activities because traders can use these points to predict the likely direction of market movements within the day. These points can also serve as potential buying and selling areas.
Both indicators assist investors and traders in analyzing market movements and making decisions, but it is always recommended to use them in conjunction with other analysis methods and consider market conditions.
Buffett IndicatorThis is an open-source version of the Buffett indicator. The old version was code-protected and broken, so I created another version.
It's computed simply as the entire SPX 500 capitalization divided by the US GDP. Since TradingView does not have data for the SPX 500 capitalization, I used quarterly values of SPX devisors as a proxy.
I tried to create another version of the Buffett indicator for other countries/indexes, but I can't find the data. If you can help me find data for index divisors, I can add more choices to this indicator.
It's interesting to see how this indicator's behavior has changed in the last few years. Levels that looked crazy are not so crazy anymore.
Disclaimer
Please remember that past performance may not be indicative of future results.
Due to various factors, including changing market conditions, the strategy may no longer perform as well as in historical backtesting.
This post and the script don’t provide any financial advice.
Murrey Math
The Murrey Math indicator is a set of horizontal price levels, calculated from an algorithm developed by stock trader T.J. Murray.
The main concept behind Murrey Math is that prices tend to react and rotate at specific price levels. These levels are calculated by dividing the price range into fixed segments called "ranges", usually using a number of 8, 16, 32, 64, 128 or 256.
Murrey Math levels are calculated as follows:
1. A particular price range is taken, for example, 128.
2. Divide the current price by the range (128 in this example).
3. The result is rounded to the nearest whole number.
4. Multiply that whole number by the original range (128).
This results in the Murrey Math level closest to the current price. More Murrey levels are calculated and drawn by adding and subtracting multiples of the range to the initially calculated level.
Traders use Murrey Math levels as areas of possible support and resistance as it is believed that prices tend to react and pivot at these levels. They are also used to identify price patterns and possible entry and exit points in trading.
The Murrey Math indicator itself simply calculates and draws these horizontal levels on the price chart, allowing traders to easily visualize them and use them in their technical analysis.
HOW TO USE THIS INDICATOR?
To use the Murrey Math indicator effectively, here are some tips:
1. Choose the appropriate Murrey Math range : The Murrey Math range input (128 by default in the provided code) determines the spacing between the levels. Common ranges used are 8, 16, 32, 64, 128, and 256. A smaller range will give you more levels, while a larger range will give you fewer levels. Choose a range that suits the volatility and trading timeframe you're working with.
2. Identify potential support and resistance levels: The horizontal lines drawn by the indicator represent potential support and resistance levels based on the Murrey Math calculation. Prices often react or reverse at these levels, so they can be used to spot areas of interest for entries and exits.
3. Look for price reactions at the levels: Watch for price action like rejections, bounces, or breakouts at the Murrey Math levels. These reactions can signal potential trend continuation or reversal setups.
4. Trail stop-loss orders: You can place stop-loss orders just below/above the nearest Murrey Math level to manage risk if the price moves against your trade.
5. Set targets at future levels: Project potential profit targets by looking at upcoming Murrey Math levels in the direction of the trend.
7. Adjust range as needed: If prices are consistently breaking through levels without reacting, try adjusting the range input to a different value to see if it provides better levels.
In which asset can this indicator perform better?
The Murrey Math indicator can potentially perform well on any liquid financial asset that exhibits some degree of mean-reversion or trading range behavior. However, it may be more suitable for certain asset classes or trading timeframes than others.
Here are some assets and scenarios where the Murrey Math indicator can potentially perform better:
1. Forex Markets: The foreign exchange market is known for its ranging and mean-reverting nature, especially on higher timeframes like the daily or weekly charts. The Murrey Math levels can help identify potential support and resistance levels within these trading ranges.
2. Futures Markets: Futures contracts, such as those for commodities (e.g., crude oil, gold, etc.) or equity indices, often exhibit trading ranges and mean-reversion trends. The Murrey Math indicator can be useful in identifying potential turning points within these ranges.
3. Stocks with Range-bound Behavior: Some stocks, particularly those of large-cap companies, can trade within well-defined ranges for extended periods. The Murrey Math levels can help identify the boundaries of these ranges and potential reversal points.
4. I ntraday Trading: The Murrey Math indicator may be more effective on lower timeframes (e.g., 1-hour, 30-minute, 15-minute) for intraday trading, as prices tend to respect support and resistance levels more closely within shorter time periods.
5. Trending Markets: While the Murrey Math indicator is primarily designed for range-bound markets, it can also be used in trending markets to identify potential pullback or continuation levels.
Momentum Ghost Machine [ChartPrime]Momentum Ghost Machine (ChartPrime) is designed to be the next generation in momentum/rate of change analysis. This indicator utilizes the properties of one of our favorite filters to create a more accurate and stable momentum oscillator by using a high quality filtered delayed signal to do the momentum comparison.
Traditional momentum/roc uses the raw price data to compare current price to previous price to generate a directional oscillator. This leaves the oscillator prone to false readings and noisy outputs that leave traders unsure of the real likelihood of a future movement. One way to mitigate this issue would be to use some sort of moving average. Unfortunately, this can only go so far because simple moving average algorithms result in a poor reconstruction of the actual shape of the underlying signal.
The windowed sinc low pass filter is a linear phase filter, meaning that it doesn't change the shape or size of the original signal when applied. This results in a faithful reconstruction of the original signal, but without the "high frequency noise". Just like any filter, the process of applying it requires that we have "future" samples resulting in a time delay for real time applications. Fortunately this is a great thing in the context of a momentum oscillator because we need some representation of past price data to compare the current price data to. By using an ideal low pass filter to generate this delayed signal we can super charge the momentum oscillator and fix the majority of issues its predecessors had.
This indicator has a few extra features that other momentum/roc indicators dont have. One major yet simple improvement is the inclusion of a moving average to help gauge the rate of change of this indicator. Since we included a moving average, we thought it would only be appropriate to add a histogram to help visualize the relationship between the signal and its average. To go further with this we have also included linear extrapolation to further help you predict the momentum and direction of this oscillator. Included with this extrapolation we have also added the histogram in the extrapolation to further enhance its visual interpretation. Finally, the inclusion of a candle coloring feature really drives how the utility of the Momentum Machine .
There are three distinct options when using the candle coloring feature: Direct, MA, and Both. With direct the candles will be colored based on the indicators direction and polarity. When it is above zero and moving up, it displays a green color. When it is above zero and moving down it will display a light green color. Conversely, when the indicator is below zero and moving down it displays a red color, and when it it moving up and below zero it will display a light red color. MA coloring will color the candles just like a MACD. If the signal is above its MA and moving up it will display a green color, and when it is above its MA and moving down it will display a light green color.
When the signal is below its MA and moving down it will display a red color, and when its below its ma and moving up it will display a light red color. Both combines the two into a single color scheme providing you with the best of both worlds. If the indicator is above zero it will display the MA colors with a slight twist. When the indicator is moving down and is below its MA it will display a lighter color than before, and when it is below zero and is above its MA it will display a darker color color.
Length of 50 with a smoothing of 100
Length of 50 with a smoothing of 25
By default, the indicator is set to a momentum length of 50, with a post smoothing of 2. We have chosen the longer period for the momentum length to highlight the performance of this indicator compared to its ancestors. A major point to consider with this indicator is that you can only achieve so much smoothing for a chosen delay. This is because more data is required to produce a smoother signal at a specified length. Once you have selected your desired momentum length you can then select your desired momentum smoothing . This is made possible by the use of the windowed sinc low pass algorithm because it includes a frequency cutoff argument. This means that you can have as little or as much smoothing as you please without impacting the period of the indicator. In the provided examples above this paragraph is a visual representation of what is going on under the hood of this indicator. The blue line is the filtered signal being compared to the current closing price. As you can see, the filtered signal is very smooth and accurately represents the underlying price action without noise.
We hope that users can find the same utility as we did in this indicator and that it levels up your analysis utilizing the momentum oscillator or rate of change.
Enjoy
Price Action Fractal Forecasts [AlgoAlpha]🔮 Price Action Fractal Forecasts - Unleash the Power of Historical Patterns! 🌌✨
Dive into the future with AlgoAlpha's Price Action Fractal Forecasts ! This innovative indicator utilizes the mesmerizing complexity of fractals to predict future price movements, offering traders a unique edge in the market. By analyzing historical price action and identifying repeating patterns, this tool forecasts future price trends, providing visually engaging and actionable insights.
Key Features:
🔄 Flexible Data Series Selection: Choose your preferred data series for precise analysis.
🕰 Flexible Training and Reference Data Windows: Customize the length of training data and reference periods to match your trading style.
📈 Custom Forecast Length: Adjust the forecast horizon to suit your strategic objectives.
🌈 Customizable Visual Elements: Tailor the colors of forecast deviation cones, data reference areas, and more for optimal chart readability.
🔄 Anticipatory and Repetitive Forecast Modes: Select between anticipating future trends or identifying repetitive patterns for forecasts.
🔎 Enhanced Similarity Search: Leverages correlation metrics to find the most similar historical data segments.
📊 Forecast Deviation Cone: Visualize potential price range deviations with adjustable multipliers.
🚀 Quick Guide to Maximizing Your Trading with Price Action Fractal Forecasts:
🛠 Add the Indicator: Search for "Price Action Fractal Forecasts" in TradingView's Indicators & Strategies. Customize settings according to your trading strategy.
📊 Strategic Forecasting: Monitor the forecast deviation cone and forecast directional changes for insights into potential future price movements.
🔔 Alerts for Swift Action: Set up notifications based on forecast changes to stay ahead of market movements without constant monitoring.
Behind the Magic: How It Works
The core of the Price Action Fractal Forecasts lies in its ability to compare current market behavior with historical data to unearth similar patterns. It first establishes a training data window to analyze historical prices. Within this window, it then defines a reference length to identify the most recent price action that will serve as the basis for comparison. The indicator searches through the historical data within the training window to find segments that closely match the recent price action in the reference period.
Depending on whether you choose the anticipatory or repetitive forecast mode, the indicator either looks ahead to predict future prices based on past outcomes following similar patterns or focuses on the repeating patterns within the reference period itself for forecasts. The forecast's direction can be configured to reflect the mean average of forecasted prices or the end-point relative to the start-point of the forecast, offering flexibility in how forecasts are interpreted.
To enhance the comprehensiveness and visualization, the indicator features a forecast deviation cone. This cone represents the potential range of price movements, providing a visual cue for volatility and uncertainty in the forecasted prices. The intensity of this cone can be adjusted to suit individual preferences, offering a visual guide to the level of risk and uncertainty associated with the forecasted price path.
Embrace the fractal magic of markets with AlgoAlpha's Price Action Fractal Forecasts and transform your trading today! 🌟🚀
