AI x Meme Impulse Tracker [QuantraSystems]AI x Meme Impulse Tracker
Quantra Systems guarantees that the information created and published within this document and on the Tradingview platform is fully compliant with applicable regulations, does not constitute investment advice, and is not exclusively intended for qualified investors.
Important Note!
The system equity curve presented here has been generated as part of the process of testing and verifying the methodology behind this script.
Crucially, it was developed after the system was conceptualized, designed, and created, which helps to mitigate the risk of overfitting to historical data. In other words, the system was built for robustness, not for simply optimizing past performance.
This ensures that the system is less likely to degrade in performance over time, compared to hyper-optimized systems that are tailored to past data. No tweaks or optimizations were made to this system post-backtest.
Even More Important Note!!
The nature of markets is that they change quickly and unpredictably. Past performance does not guarantee future results - this is a fundamental rule in trading and investing.
While this system is designed with broad, flexible conditions to adapt quickly to a range of market environments, it is essential to understand that no assumptions should be made about future returns based on historical data. Markets are inherently uncertain, and this system - like all trading systems - cannot predict future outcomes.
Introduction
The AI x Meme Impulse Tracker is a cutting-edge, fast-acting rotational algorithm designed to capitalize on the strength of assets within pre-selected categories. Using a custom function built on top of the RSI Pulsar, the system measures momentum through impulses rather than traditional trend following methods. This allows for swifter reallocations based on short bursts of strength.
This system focuses on precision and agility - making it highly adaptable in volatile markets. The strategy is built around three independent asset categories - with allocations only made to the strongest asset in each - ensuring that capital movement (in particular between blockchains) is kept to a minimum for efficiency purposes while maintaining exposure to the highest performing tokens.
Legend
Token Inputs:
The Impulse Tracker is designed with dynamic asset selection - allowing traders to customize the inputs for each category. This feature enables flexible system management, as the number of active tokens within each category can be adjusted at any time. Whether the user chooses the default of 13 tokens per category, or fewer, the system will automatically recalibrate. This ensures that all calculations, from relative strength to individual performance assessments, adjust as required. Disabled tokens are treated by the system as if they don’t exist - seamlessly updating performance metrics and the Impulse Tracker’s allocation behavior to maintain the highest level of efficiency and accuracy.
System Equity Curve:
The Impulse Tracker plots both the rotational system’s equity and the Buy-and-Hold (or ‘HODL’) benchmark of Bitcoin for comparison. While the HODL approach allocates the entire portfolio to Bitcoin and functions as an index to compare to, the Impulse Tracker dynamically allocates based on strength impulses within the chosen tokens and categories. The system equity curve is representative of adding an equal capital split between the strongest assets of each category. The relative strength system does handle ‘ties’ of strength - in this situation multiple tokens from a single category can be included in the final equity curve, with the allocated weight to that category split between the tied assets.
TABLES:
Equity Stats:
This table is held in Quantra System's typical UI design language. It offers a comprehensive snapshot of the system’s performance, with key metrics organized to help traders quickly assess both short-term and cumulative results. The left side provides details on individual asset performance, while the right side presents a comparison of the system’s risk-adjusted metrics against a simple BTC Hodl strategy.
The leftmost column of the Equity Stats table showcases performance indicators for the system’s current allocations. This provides quick identification of the current strongest tokens, based on confirmed and non-repainting data as soon as the current opens and the last bar closes.
The right-hand side compares the performance differences between the system and Hodl profits, both on a cumulative basis and analyzing only the previous bar. The total number of position changes is also tracked in this table - an important metric when calculating total slippage and should be used to determine how ‘hands-on’ the strategy will be on the current timeframe.
The lower part of the table highlights a direct comparison of the AI x Memes Impulse strategy with buy-and-hold Bitcoin. The risk adjusted performance ratios, Sharpe, Sortino and Omega, are shown side by side, as well as the maximum drawdown experienced by both strategies within the set testing window.
Screener Table:
This table provides a detailed breakdown of the performance for each asset that has been the strongest in its category at some point and thus received an allocation. The table tracks several key metrics for each asset - including returns, volatility, Sharpe ratio, Sortino ratio, Omega ratio, and maximum drawdown. It also displays the signals for both current and previous periods, as well as the assets weight in the theoretical portfolio. Assets that have never received a signal are also included, giving traders an overview of which assets have contributed to the portfolio's performance and which have not played a role so far.
The position changes cell also offers important insights, as it shows the frequency of not just total position changes, but also rebalancing events.
Detailed Slippage Table:
The Detailed Slippage Table provides a comprehensive breakdown of the calculated slippage and fees incurred throughout the strategy’s operations. It contains several key metrics that give traders a granular view of the costs associated with executing the system:
Selected Slippage - Displays the current slippage rate, as defined in the input menu.
Removal Slippage - This accounts for any slippage or fees incurred when removing an allocation from a token.
Reallocation Slippage - Tracks the slippage or fees when reallocating capital to existing positions.
Addition Slippage - Measures the slippage or fees incurred when allocating capital to new tokens.
Final Slippage - Is the sum of all the individual slippage points and provides a quick view of the total slippage accounted for by the system.
The table is also divided into two columns:
Last Transaction Slippage + Fees - Displays any slippage or fees incurred based on position changes within the current bar.
Total Slippage + Fees - Shows the cumulative slippage and fees incurred since the portfolio’s selected start date.
Visual Customization:
Several customizable features are included within the input menu to enhance user experience. These include custom color palettes, both preloaded and user-selectable. This allows traders to personalize the visual appearance of the tables, ensuring clarity and consistency with their preferred interface themes and background coloring.
Additionally, users can adjust both the position and sizes of all the tables - enabling complete tailoring to the trader’s layout and specific viewing preferences and screen configurations. This level of customization ensures a more intuitive and flexible interaction with the system’s data.
Core Features and Methodologies
Advanced Risk Management - A Unique Filtering Approach:
The Equity Curve Activation Filter introduces an innovative way to dynamically manage capital allocation, aligning with periods of market trend strength. This filter is rooted in the understanding that markets move cyclically - altering between periods trending and mean-reverting periods. This cycle is especially pronounced in the crypto markets, where strong uptrends are often followed by prolonged periods of sideways movements or corrections as participants take profits and momentum fades.
The Cyclical Nature of Markets and Trend Following:
Financial markets do not trend indefinitely. Each uptrend or downtrend, whether over high and low timeframes, tends to culminate in a phase where momentum exhausts - leading to the sideways or corrective phases. This cycle results from the natural dynamics of market participants: during extended trends, more participants jump in, riding the momentum until profit taking causes the trend to slow down or reverse. This cyclical behavior occurs across all timeframes and in all markets - making it essential to adapt trading strategies in attempt to minimize losses during less favorable conditions.
In a trend following system, profitability often mirrors this cyclical pattern. Trend following strategies thrive when markets are moving directionally, capturing gains as price moves with strength in a single direction. However in phases where the market chops sideways, trend following strategies will usually experience drawdowns and reduced returns due to the impersistent nature of any trends. This fluctuation in trend following profitability can actually serve as one of the best coincident indicators of broader market regime change - when profitability begins to fade, it often signals a transition to drawn out unfavorable trend trading conditions.
The Equity Curve as a Market Signal
Within the Impulse Tracker, a continuous equity curve is calculated based upon the system's allocation to the strongest tokens. This equity curve effectively tracks the system’s performance under all market conditions. However, instead of solely relying on the direct performance of the selected tokens, the system applies additional filters to analyze the trend strength of this equity curve itself.
In the same way you only want to purchase an asset that is moving up in price, you only want to allocate capital to a strategy whose equity curve is trending upwards!
The Equity Curve Activation Filter consistently monitors the trend of this equity curve through various filter indicators, such as the “Wave Pendulum Trend”, the “Quasar QSM” and the “MAQSM” (an aggregate of multiple types of averages). These filters help determine whether the equity curve is trending upwards, signaling a favorable period for trend following. When the equity curve is in a positive trend, capital is allocated to the system as normal - allowing it to capture gains during favorable market conditions, Conversely, when the trend weakens and the equity curves begins to stagnate or decline, the activation filter shifts the system into a “cash” positions - temporarily halting allocations in order to prevent market exposure during choppy or mean reverting phases.
Timing Allocation With Market Conditions
This unique filtering approach ensures that the system is primarily active during periods when market trends are most supportive. By aligning capital allocations with the uptrend in trend following profitability, the system is designed to enter during periods of strong momentum and move to cash when momentum with the equity curve wanes. This approach reduces the risk of overtrading in less favorable conditions and preserves capital for the next favorable trend.
In essence the Equity Curve Allocation Filter serves as a dynamic risk management layer that leverages the cyclicality of trend following profitability in order to navigate shifting market phases.
Sensitivity and Signal Responsiveness:
The Quasar Sensitivity Setting allows users to fine-tune the system’s responsiveness to asset signals. High sensitivity settings lead to quicker position changes, making the system highly reactive to short term strength impulses. This is especially useful in fast moving markets where token strength can shift rapidly. The Sensitive setting might be more applicable to higher volatility or lower market cap assets - as the increased volatility increases the necessity of faster position cutting in order to front run the crowd. Of course - a balanced approach is ideal, as if the signals are too fast there will be too many whips and false signals. (And extra fees + slippage!)
The benefit of this script is because of the advanced slippage calculations, false signals are sufficiently punished (unlike systems without fees or slippage) - so it will become immediately apparent if the false signals have a significantly detrimental impact on the system’s equity curve.
Asset specific signals within each category are re-evaluated after the close of each bar to ensure that capital is always allocated to the highest performing asset. If a token’s momentum begins to fade the system swiftly reallocates to the next strongest asset within that category.
Category Filter - Allocates only to the Strongest Asset per group
One of the core innovations of the AI x Meme Impulse Tracker is the customizable Category Filter, which ensures that only the strongest-performing asset within each predefined group receives capital allocation. This approach not only increases the precision of asset selection but also allows traders to tailor the system to specific token narratives or categories. Sectors can include trending themes such as high-attention meme tokens, AI-driven tokens, or even categorize assets by blockchain ecosystems like Ethereum, Solana, or Base chain. This flexibility enables users to align their strategies with the latest market narratives or to optimize for specific groups, focusing on high-beta tokens within well defined sectors for a more targeted exposure. By keeping the focus on category leaders, the system avoids diluting its impact across underperforming assets, thereby maximizing capital efficiency and reducing unnecessary trading costs.
Dynamic Asset Reallocation:
Dynamic reallocation ensures that the system remains nimble and adapts to changing market conditions. Unlike slower systems, the Quasar method continually monitors for changes in asset strength and reallocates capital accordingly - ensuring that the system is always positioned in the highest performing assets within each category.
Position Changes and Slippage:
The Impulse Tracker places a strong emphasis on realistic simulation, prioritizing accuracy over inflated backtest results. This approach ensures that slippage is accounted for in a more aggressive manner than what may be experienced in real-world execution.
Each position change within the system - whether it’s buying, selling, reallocating, or rebalancing between assets - incurs slippage. Slippage is applied to both ends of every transaction: when a position is entered and exited, and when reallocating capital from one token to another. This dynamic behavior is further enhanced by a customizable slippage/fees input, allowing users to simulate realistic transaction costs based on their own market conditions and execution behaviors.
The slippage model works by applying a weighted slippage to the equity curve, taking into account the actual amount of capital being moved. Slippage is not applied in a blanket manner but rather in proportion to the allocation changes. For example, if the system reallocates from a single 100% position to two 50% allocations, slippage will be applied to the 50% removed from the first asset and the 50% added to the new asset, resulting in a 1x slippage multiplier.
This process becomes more granular when multiple assets are involved. For instance, if reallocating from two 50% positions to three 33% positions, slippage will be incurred on each of the changes, but at a reduced rate (⅔ x slippage), reflecting the smaller percentage of portfolio equity being moved. The slippage model accounts for all types of allocation shifts, whether increasing or decreasing the number of tokens held, providing a realistic assessment of system costs.
Here are some detailed examples to illustrate how slippage is calculated based on different scenarios:
100% → 50% / 50%: 1x slippage applied to both position changes (2 allocation changes).
50% / 50% → 33% / 33% / 33%: ⅔ x slippage multiplier applied across 3 allocation changes.
33% / 33% / 33% → 100%: 4/3 x slippage multiplier applied across 3 allocation changes.
In practice, not every position change will be rebalanced perfectly, leading to a lower number of transactions and lower costs in practice. Additionally, with the use of limit orders, a trader can easily reduce the costs of entering a position, as well as ensuring a competitive entry price.
By simulating slippage in this granular manner, the system captures the absolute maximum level of fees and slippage, in order to ensure that backtest results lean towards an underrepresentation - opposed to inflated results compared with practical execution.
A Special Note on Slippage
In the image above, the system has been applied to four different timeframes - 20h, 15h, 10h, and 5h - using identical settings and a selected slippage amount of 2%. By isolating a recent trend leg, we can illustrate an important concept: while the 15h timeframe is more profitable than the 20h timeframe, this difference stems from a core trading principle. Lower timeframes typically provide more data points and allow for quicker entries and exits in a robust system. This often results in reduced downside and compounding of gains.
However, slippage, fees, and execution constraints are limiting factors, especially in volatile, low-cap cryptocurrencies. Although lower timeframes can improve performance by increasing trade frequency, each trade incurs heavy slippage costs that accumulate - impacting the portfolio’s capital at a compounding rate. In this example, the chosen slippage rate of 2% per trade is designed to reflect the realistic trading costs, emphasizing how lower timeframe trading comes at the cost of increased slippage and fees
Finding the optimal balance between timeframe and slippage impact requires careful consideration of factors such as portfolio size, liquidity of selected tokens, execution speed, and the fee rate of the exchange you execute trades on.
Equity Curve and Performance Calculations
To provide a benchmark, the script also generates a Buy-and-Hold (or "HODL") equity curve that represents a complete allocation to Bitcoin. This allows users to easily compare the performance of the dynamic rotation system with that more traditional benchmark strategy.
The script tracks key performance metrics for both the dynamic portfolio and the HODL strategy, including:
Sharpe Ratio
The Sharpe Ratio is a key metric that evaluates a portfolio’s risk-adjusted return by comparing its ‘excess’ return to its volatility. Traditionally, the Sharpe Ratio measures returns relative to a risk-free rate. However, in our system’s calculation, we omit the risk-free rate and instead measure returns above a benchmark of 0%. This adjustment provides a more universal comparison, especially in the context of highly volatile assets like cryptocurrencies, where a traditional risk-free benchmark, such as the usual 3-month T-bills, is often irrelevant or too distant from the realities of the crypto market.
By using 0% as the baseline, we focus purely on the strategy's ability to generate raw returns in the face of market risk, which makes it easier to compare performance across different strategies or asset classes. In an environment like cryptocurrency, where volatility can be extreme, the importance of relative return against a highly volatile backdrop outweighs comparisons to a risk-free rate that bears little resemblance to the risk profile of digital assets.
Sortino Ratio
The Sortino Ratio improves upon the Sharpe Ratio by specifically targeting downside risk and leaves the upside potential untouched. In contrast to the Sharpe Ratio (which penalizes both upside and downside volatility), the Sortino Ratio focuses only on negative return deviations. This makes it a more suitable metric for evaluating strategies like the AI x Meme Impulse Tracker - that aim to minimize drawdowns without restricting upside capture. By measuring returns relative to a 0% baseline, the Sortino ratio provides a clearer assessment of how well the system generates gains while avoiding substantial losses in highly volatile markets like crypto.
Omega Ratio
The Omega Ratio is calculated as the ratio of gains to losses across all return thresholds, providing a more complete view of how the system balances upside and downside risk even compared to the Sortino Ratio. While it achieves a similar outcome to the Sortino Ratio by emphasizing the system's ability to capture gains while limiting losses, it is technically a mathematically superior method. However, we include both the Omega and Sortino ratios in our metric table, as the Sortino Ratio remains more widely recognized and commonly understood by traders and investors of all levels.
Usage Summary:
While the backtests in this description are generated as if a trader held a portfolio of just the strongest tokens, this was mainly designed as a method of logical verification and not a recommended investment strategy. In practice, this system can be used in multiple ways.
It can be used as above, or as a factor in forming part of a broader asset selection system, or even a method of filtering tokens by strength in order to inform a day trader which tokens might be optimal to look for long-only trading setups on an intrabar timeframe.
Final Summary:
The AI x Meme Impulse Tracker is a powerful algorithm that leverages a unique strength and impulse based approach to asset allocation within high beta token categories. Built with a robust risk management framework, the system’s Equity Curve Activation Filter dynamically manages capital exposure based on the cyclical nature of market trends, minimizing exposure during weaker phases.
With highly customizable settings, the Impulse Tracker enables precise capital allocation to only the strongest assets, informed by real-time metrics and rigorous slippage modeling in order to provide the best view of historical profitability. This adaptable design, coupled with advanced performance analytics, makes it a versatile tool for traders seeking an edge in fast moving and volatile crypto markets.
Robust
Bullrun Profit Maximizer [QuantraSystems]Bullrun Profit Maximizer
Quantra Systems guarantees that the information created and published within this document and on the Tradingview platform is fully compliant with applicable regulations, does not constitute investment advice, and is not exclusively intended for qualified investors.
Important Note!
The system equity curve presented here has been generated as part of the process of testing and verifying the methodology behind this script.
Crucially, it was developed after the system was conceptualized, designed, and created, which helps to mitigate the risk of overfitting to historical data. In other words, the system was built for robustness, not for simply optimizing past performance.
This ensures that the system is less likely to degrade in performance over time, compared to hyper optimized systems that are tailored to past data. No tweaks or optimizations were made to this system post backtest.
Even More Important Note!!
The nature of markets is that they change quickly and unpredictably. Past performance does not guarantee future results - this is a fundamental rule in trading and investing.
While this system is designed with broad, flexible conditions to adapt quickly to a range of market environments, it is essential to understand that no assumptions should be made about future returns based on historical data. Markets are inherently uncertain, and this system - like all trading systems - cannot predict future outcomes.
Introduction
The "Adaptive Pairwise Momentum System" is not a prototype to the Bullrun Profit Maximizer (BPM) . The Bullrun Profit Maximizer is a fully re-engineered, higher frequency momentum system.
The Bullrun Profit Maximizer (BPM) uses a completely different filter logic and refines momentum calculations, specifically to support higher frequency trading on Crypto's Blue Chip assets. It correctly calculates fees and slippage by compounding them against System Profit before plotting the equity curve.
Unlike prior systems, this script utilizes a completely new filter logic and refined momentum calculation, specifically built to support higher frequency trading on blue-chip assets, while minimizing the impact of fees and slippage.
While the APMS focuses on Macro Trend Alignment, the BPM instead applies an equity curve based filter, allowing for targeted precision on the current asset’s trend without relying on broader market conditions. This approach delivers more responsive and asset specific signals, enhancing agility in today’s fast paced crypto markets.
The BPM dynamically optimizes capital allocation across up to four high performing assets, ensuring that the portfolio adapts swiftly to changing market conditions. The system logic consists of sophisticated quantitative methods, rapid momentum analysis and alpha cyclicality/seasonality optimizations. The overarching goal is to ensure that the portfolio is always invested in the highest performing asset based on dynamic market conditions, while at the same time managing risk through rapid asset filters and internal mechanisms like alpha cyclicality, volatility and beta analysis.
In addition to these core functionalities, the BPM comes with the typical Quantra Systems UI design, structured to reduce data clutter and provide users with only the most essential, impactful information. The BPM UI format delivers clear and easy to read signals. It enables rapid decision making in a high frequency environment without compromising on depth or accuracy.
Bespoke Logic Filtering with Equity Curve Precision
The BPM script utilizes a completely new methodology and focuses on intraday rotations of blue-chip crypto assets, while previously built systems were designed with a longer term focus in mind.
In response to the need for more precise signal generation, the BPM replaces the previous macro trend filter with a new, highly specific equity curve activation filter. This unique logic filter is driven solely by the performance trends of the asset currently held by the system. By analyzing the equity curve directly, this system can make more targeted, timely allocations based on asset specific momentum, allowing for quick adjustments that are more relevant to the held asset rather than general market conditions.
The benefits of this new, unique approach are twofold: first, it avoids premature allocation shifts based on broader macro movements, and second, it enables the system to adapt dynamically to the performance of each asset individually. This asset specific filtering allows traders to capitalize on localized strength within individual blue-chip cryptoassets without being affected by lags in the overall market trend.
High Frequency Momentum Calculation for Enhanced Flexibility
The BPM incorporates a newly designed momentum calculation that increases its suitability across lower timeframes. This new momentum indicator captures and processes more data points within a shorter window than ever before, rather than extending bar intervals and potentially losing high frequency detail. This creates a smooth, data rich featureset that is especially suited for blue-chip assets, where liquidity reduces slippage and fees, making higher frequency trading viable.
By retaining more data, this system captures subtle shifts in momentum more effectively than traditional approaches, offering higher resolution insights. These modifications result in a system capable of generating highly responsive signals on faster timeframes, empowering traders to act quickly in volatile markets.
User Interface and Enhanced Readability
The BPM also features a reimagined, streamlined user interface, making it easier than ever to monitor essential signals at a glance. The new layout minimizes extraneous data points in the tables, leaving only the most actionable information for traders. This cleaner presentation is purpose built to help traders identify the strongest asset in real time, with clear, color coded signals to facilitate swift decision making in fast moving markets.
Equity Stats Table : Designed for clarity, the stats table focuses on the current allocation’s performance metrics, emphasizing the most critical metrics without unnecessary clutter.
Color Coded Highlights : The interface includes the option to highlight both the current top performing asset, and historical allocations - with indicators of momentum shifts and performance metrics readily accessible.
Clear Signals : Visual cues are presented in an enhanced way to improve readability, including simplified line coloring, and improve visualization of the outperforming assets in the allocation table.
Dynamic Asset Reallocation
The BPM dynamically allocates capital to the strongest performing asset in a selected pool. This system incorporates a re-engineered, pairwise momentum measurement designed to operate at higher frequencies. The system evaluates each asset against others in real time, ensuring only the highest momentum asset receives allocation. This approach keeps the portfolio positioned for maximum efficiency, with an updated weighting logic that favors assets showing both strength and sustainability.
Position Changes and Slippage Calculation
Position changes are optimized for faster reallocation, with realistic slippage and fee calculations factored into each trade. The system’s structure minimizes the impact of these costs on blue-chip assets, allowing for more active management on short timeframes without incurring significant drag on performance.
A Special Note on Fees + Slippage
In the image above, the system has been applied to four different timeframes - 12h, 8h, 4h and 1h - using identical settings and a selected slippage and fees amount of 0.2%. In this stress test, we isolate the choppy downwards period from the previous Bitcoin all time high - set in March 2024, to the current date where Bitcoin is currently sitting at around the same level.
This illustrates an important concept: starting at the 12h, the system performed better as the timeframes decreased. In fact, only on the 4hr chart did the system equity curve make a new all time high alongside Bitcoin. It is worth noting that market phases that are “non-trending” are generally the least profitable periods to use a momentum/trend system - as most systems will get caught by false momentum and will “buy the top,” and then proceed to “sell the bottom.”
Lower timeframes typically offer more data points for the algorithm to compute over, and enable quicker entries and exits within a robust system, often reducing downside risk and compounding gains more effectively - in all market environments.
However, slippage, fees, and execution constraints are still limiting factors. Although blue-chip cryptocurrencies are more liquid and can be traded with lower fees compared to low cap assets, frequent trading on lower timeframes incurs cumulative slippage costs. With the BPM system set to a realistic slippage rate of 0.2% per trade, this example emphasizes how even lower fees impact performance as trade frequency increases.
Finding the optimal balance between timeframe and slippage impact requires careful consideration of factors such as portfolio size, liquidity of selected tokens, execution speed, and the fee rate of the exchange you execute trades on.
Number of Position Changes
Understanding the number of position changes in a strategy is critical to assessing its feasibility in real world trading. Frequent position changes can lead to increased costs due to slippage and fees. Monitoring the number of position changes provides insight into the system’s behavior - helping to evaluate how active the strategy is and whether it aligns with the trader's desired time input for position management.
Equity Curve and Performance Calculations
To provide a benchmark, the script also generates a Buy-and-Hold (or "HODL") equity curve that represents a 100% allocation to Bitcoin, the highest market cap cryptoasset. This allows users to easily compare the performance of the dynamic rotation system with that of a more traditional investment strategy.
The script tracks key performance metrics for both the dynamic portfolio and the HODL strategy, including:
Sharpe Ratio
The Sharpe Ratio is a key metric that evaluates a portfolio’s risk adjusted return by comparing its ‘excess’ return to its volatility. Traditionally, the Sharpe Ratio measures returns relative to a risk-free rate. However, in our system’s calculation, we omit the risk-free rate and instead measure returns above a benchmark of 0%. This adjustment provides a more universal comparison, especially in the context of highly volatile assets like cryptocurrencies, where a traditional risk-free benchmark, such as the usual 3-month T-bills, is often irrelevant or too distant from the realities of the crypto market.
By using 0% as the baseline, we focus purely on the strategy's ability to generate raw returns in the face of market risk, which makes it easier to compare performance across different strategies or asset classes. In an environment like cryptocurrency, where volatility can be extreme, the importance of relative return against a highly volatile backdrop outweighs comparisons to a risk-free rate that bears little resemblance to the risk profile of digital assets.
Sortino Ratio
The Sortino Ratio improves upon the Sharpe Ratio by specifically targeting downside risk and leaves the upside potential untouched. In contrast to the Sharpe Ratio (which penalizes both upside and downside volatility), the Sortino Ratio focuses only on negative return deviations. This makes it a more suitable metric for evaluating strategies like the Bullrun Profit Maximizer - that aim to minimize drawdowns without restricting upside capture. By measuring returns relative to a 0% baseline, the Sortino ratio provides a clearer assessment of how well the system generates gains while avoiding substantial losses in highly volatile markets like crypto.
Omega Ratio
The Omega Ratio is calculated as the ratio of gains to losses across all return thresholds, providing a more complete view of how the system balances upside and downside risk even compared to the Sortino Ratio. While it achieves a similar outcome to the Sortino Ratio by emphasizing the system's ability to capture gains while limiting losses, it is technically a mathematically superior method. However, we include both the Omega and Sortino ratios in our metric table, as the Sortino Ratio remains more widely recognized and commonly understood by traders and investors of all levels.
Usage Summary:
While the backtests in this description are generated as if a trader held a portfolio of just the strongest tokens, this was mainly designed as a method of logical verification and not a recommended investment strategy. In practice, this system can be used in multiple ways.
It can be used as above, or as a factor in forming part of a broader asset selection tool, or even a method of filtering tokens by strength in order to inform a day trader which tokens might be optimal to look at, for long-only trading setups on an intrabar timeframe.
Summary
The Bullrun Profit Maximizer is an advanced tool tailored for traders, offering the precision and agility required in today’s markets. With its asset specific equity curve filter, reworked momentum analysis, and streamlined user interface, this system is engineered to maximize gains and minimize risk during bullmarkets, with a strong focus on risk adjusted performance.
Its refined approach, focused on high resolution data processing and adaptive reallocation, makes it a powerful choice for traders looking to capture high quality trends on clue-chip assets, no matter the market’s pace.
Trend Titan Neutronstar [QuantraSystems]Trend Titan NEUTRONSTAR
Credits
The Trend Titan NEUTRONSTAR is a comprehensive aggregation of nearly 100 unique indicators and custom combinations, primarily developed from unique and public domain code.
We'd like to thank our TradingView community members: @IkKeOmar for allowing us to add his well-built "Normalized KAMA Oscillator" and "Adaptive Trend Lines " indicators to the aggregation, as well as @DojiEmoji for his valuable "Drift Study (Inspired by Monte Carlo Simulations with BM)".
Introduction
The Trend Titan NEUTRONSTAR is a robust trend following algorithm meticulously crafted to meet the demands of crypto investors. Designed with a multi layered aggregation approach, NEUTRONSTAR excels in navigating the unique volatility and rapid shifts of the cryptocurrency market. By stacking and refining a variety of carefully selected indicators, it combines their individual strengths while reducing the impact of noise or false signals. This "aggregation of aggregators" approach enables NEUTRONSTAR to produce a consistently reliable trend signal across assets and timeframes, making it an exceptional tool for investors focused on medium to long term market positioning.
NEUTRONSTAR ’s powerful trend following capabilities provide investors with straightforward, data driven analysis. It signals when tokens exhibit sustained upward momentum and systematically removes allocations from assets showing signs of weakness. This structure aids investors in recognizing peak market phases. In fact, one of NEUTRONSTAR ’s most valuable applications is its potential to help investors time exits near the peak of bull markets. This aims to maximize gains while mitigating exposure to downturns.
Ultimately, NEUTRONSTAR equips investors with a high precision, adaptable framework for strategic decision making. It offers robust support to identify strong trends, manage risk, and navigate the dynamic crypto market landscape.
With over a year of rigorous forward testing and live trading, NEUTRONSTAR demonstrates remarkable robustness and effectiveness, maintaining its performance without succumbing to overfitting. The system has been purposefully designed to avoid unnecessary optimization to past data, ensuring it can adapt as market conditions evolve. By focusing on aggregating valuable trend signals rather than tuning to historical performance, the NEUTRONSTAR serves as a reliable universal trend following system that aligns with the natural market cycles of growth and correction.
Core Methodology
The foundation of the NEUTRONSTAR lies in its multi aggregated structure, where five custom developed trend models are combined to capture the dominant market direction. Each of these aggregates has been carefully crafted with a specific trend signaling period in mind, allowing it to adapt seamlessly across various timeframes and asset classes. Here’s a breakdown of the key components:
FLARE - The original Quantra Signaling Matrix (QSM) model, best suited for timeframes above 12 hours. It forms the foundation of long term trend detection, providing stable signals.
FLAREV2 - A refined and more sophisticated model that performs well across both high and low timeframes, adding a layer of adaptability to the system.
NEBULA - An advanced model combining FLARE and FLAREV2. NEBULA brings the advantages of both components together, enhancing reliability and capturing smoother, more accurate trends.
SPARK - A high speed trend aggregator based on the QSM Universal model. It focuses on fast moving trends, providing early signals of potential shifts.
SUNBURST - A balanced aggregate that combines elements of SPARK and FLARE, confirming SPARK’s signals while minimizing false positives.
Each of these models contributes its own unique perspective on market movement. By layering fast, medium, and slower trend following signals, NEUTRONSTAR can confirm strong trends while filtering out shorter term noise. The result is a comprehensive tool that signals clear market direction with minimized false signals.
A Unique Approach to Trend Aggregation
One of the defining characteristics of NEUTRONSTAR is its deliberate choice to avoid perfectly time coherent indicators within its aggregation. In simpler terms, NEUTRONSTAR purposefully incorporates trend following indicators with slightly different signal periods, rather than synchronizing all components to a single signaling period. This choice brings significant benefits in terms of diversification, adaptability, and robustness of the overall trend signal.
When aggregating multiple trend following components, if all indicators were perfectly time coherent - meaning they responded to market changes in exactly the same way and over the time periods - the resulting signal would effectively be no different from a single trend following indicator. This uniformity would limit the system’s ability to capture a variety of market conditions, leaving it vulnerable to the same noise or false signals that any single indicator might encounter. Instead, NEUTRONSTAR leverages a balanced mix of indicators with varied timing: some fast, some slower, and some in the medium range. This choice allows the system to extract the unique strengths of each component, creating a combined signal that is stronger and more reliable than any single indicator.
By incorporating different signal periods, NEUTRONSTAR achieves what can be thought of as a form of edge accumulation. The fast components within NEUTRONSTAR , for example, are highly sensitive to quick shifts in market direction. These indicators excel at identifying early trend signals, enabling NEUTRONSTAR to react swiftly to emerging momentum. However, these fast indicators alone would be prone to reacting to market noise, potentially generating too many premature signals. This is where the medium term indicators come into play. These components operate with a slower reaction time, filtering out the short term fluctuations and confirming the direction of the trend established by the faster indicators. The combination of these varying signal speeds results in a balanced, adaptive response to market changes.
This approach also allows NEUTRONSTAR to adapt to different market regimes seamlessly. In fast moving, volatile markets, the faster indicators provide an early alert to potential trend shifts, while the slower components offer a stabilizing influence, preventing overreaction to temporary noise. Conversely, in steadier or trending markets, the medium and slower indicators sustain the trend signal, reducing the likelihood of premature exits. This flexible design enhances NEUTRONSTAR ’s ability to operate effectively across multiple asset classes and timeframes, from short term fluctuations to longer term market cycles.
The result is a powerful, multi-layered trend following tool that remains adaptive, capturing the benefits of both fast and medium paced reactions without becoming overly sensitive to short term noise. This unique aggregation methodology also supports NEUTRONSTAR ’s robustness, reducing the risk of overfitting to historical data and ensuring that the system can perform reliably in forward testing and live trading environments. The slightly staggered signal periods provide a greater degree of resilience, making NEUTRONSTAR a dependable choice for traders looking to capitalize on sustained trends while minimizing exposure during periods of market uncertainty.
In summary, the lack of perfect time coherence among NEUTRONSTAR ’s sub components is not a flaw - but a deliberate, robust design choice.
Risk Management through Market Mode Analysis
An essential part of NEUTRONSTAR is its ability to assess the market's underlying behavior and adapt accordingly. It employs a Market Mode Analysis mechanism that identifies when the market is either in a “Trending State” or a “Mean Reverting State.” When enough confidence is established that the market is trending, the system confirms and signals a “Trending State,” which is optimal for maintaining positions in the direction of the trend. Conversely, if there’s insufficient confidence, it labels the market as “Mean Reverting,” alerting traders to potentially avoid trend trades during likely sideways movement.
This distinction is particularly valuable in crypto, where asset prices often oscillate between aggressive trends and consolidation periods. The Market Mode Analysis keeps traders aligned with the broader market conditions, minimizing exposure during periods of potential whipsaws and maximizing gains during sustained trends.
Zero Overfitting: Design and Testing for Real World Resilience
Unlike many trend following indicators that rely heavily on backtesting and optimization, NEUTRONSTAR was built to perform well in forward testing and live trading without post design adjustments. Over a year of live market exposure has all but proven its robustness, with the system’s methodology focused on universal applicability and simplicity rather than curve fitting to past data. This approach ensures the aggregator remains effective across different market cycles and maintains relevance as new data unfolds.
By avoiding overfitting, NEUTRONSTAR is inherently more resistant to the common issue of strategy degradation over time, making it a valuable tool for traders seeking reliable market analysis you can trust for the long term.
Settings and Customization Options
To accommodate a range of trading styles and market conditions, NEUTRONSTAR includes adjustable settings that allow for fine tuning sensitivity and signal generation:
Calculation Method - Users can choose between calculating the NEUTRONSTAR score based on aggregated scores or by using the state of individual aggregates (long, neutral, short). The score method provides faster signals with slightly more noise, while the state based approach offers a smoother signal.
Sensitivity Threshold - This setting adjusts the system’s sensitivity, defining the width of the neutral zone. Higher thresholds reduce sensitivity, allowing for a broader range of volatility before triggering a trend reversal.
Market Regime Sensitivity - A sensitivity adjustment, ranging from 0 to 100, that affects the sensitivity of the sub components in market regime calculation.
These settings offer flexibility for users to tailor NEUTRONSTAR to their specific needs, whether for medium term investment strategies or shorter term trading setups.
Visualization and Legend
For intuitive usability, NEUTRONSTAR uses color coded bar overlays to indicate trend direction:
Green - indicates an uptrend.
Gray - signals a neutral or transition phase.
Purple - denotes a downtrend.
An optional background color can be enabled for market mode visualization, indicating the overall market state as either trending or mean reverting. This feature allows traders to assess trend direction and strength at a glance, simplifying decision making.
Additional Metrics Table
To support strategic decision making, NEUTRONSTAR includes an additional metrics table for in depth analysis:
Performance Ratios - Sharpe, Sortino, and Omega ratios assess the asset’s risk adjusted returns.
Volatility Insights - Provides an average volatility measure, valuable for understanding market stability.
Beta Measurement - Calculates asset beta against BTC, offering insight into asset volatility in the context of the broader market.
These metrics provide deeper insights into individual asset behavior, supporting more informed trend based allocations. The table is fully customizable, allowing traders to adjust the position and size for a seamless integration into their workspace.
Final Summary
The Trend Titan NEUTRONSTAR indicator is a powerful and resilient trend following system for crypto markets, built with a unique aggregation of high performance models to deliver dependable, noise reduced trend signals. Its robust design, free from overfitting, ensures adaptability across various assets and timeframes. With customizable sensitivity settings, intuitive color coded visualization, and an advanced risk metrics table, NEUTRONSTAR provides traders with a comprehensive tool for identifying and riding profitable trends, while safeguarding capital during unfavorable market phases.
The Adaptive Pairwise Momentum System [QuantraSystems]The Adaptive Pairwise Momentum System
QuantraSystems guarantees that the information created and published within this document and on the Tradingview platform is fully compliant with applicable regulations, does not constitute investment advice, and is not exclusively intended for qualified investors.
Important Note!
The system equity curve presented here has been generated as part of the process of testing and verifying the methodology behind this script.
Crucially, it was developed after the system was conceptualized, designed, and created, which helps to mitigate the risk of overfitting to historical data. In other words, the system was built for robustness, not for simply optimizing past performance.
This ensures that the system is less likely to degrade in performance over time, compared to hyper-optimized systems that are tailored to past data. No tweaks or optimizations were made to this system post-backtest.
Even More Important Note!!
The nature of markets is that they change quickly and unpredictably. Past performance does not guarantee future results - this is a fundamental rule in trading and investing.
While this system is designed with broad, flexible conditions to adapt quickly to a range of market environments, it is essential to understand that no assumptions should be made about future returns based on historical data. Markets are inherently uncertain, and this system - like all trading systems - cannot predict future outcomes.
Introduction
The Adaptive Pairwise Momentum System is not just an indicator but a comprehensive asset rotation and trend-following system. In short, it aims to find the highest performing asset from the provided range.
The system dynamically optimizes capital allocation across up to four high-performing assets, ensuring that the portfolio adapts swiftly to changing market conditions. The system logic consists of sophisticated quantitative methods, rapid momentum analysis, and robust trend filtering. The overarching goal is to ensure that the portfolio is always invested in the highest-performing asset based on dynamic market conditions, while at the same time managing risk through broader market filters and internal mechanisms like volatility and beta analysis.
Legend
System Equity Curve:
The equity curve displayed in the chart is dynamically colored based on the asset allocation at any given time. This color-coded approach allows traders to immediately identify transitions between assets and the corresponding impact on portfolio performance.
Highlighting of Current Highest Performer:
The current bar in the chart is highlighted based on the confirmed highest performing asset. This is designed to give traders advanced notice of potential shifts in allocation even before a formal position change occurs. The highlighting enables traders to prepare in real time, making it easier to manage positions without lag, particularly in fast-moving markets.
Highlighted Symbols in the Asset Table:
In the table displayed on the right hand side of the screen, the current top-performing symbol is highlighted. This clear signal at a glance provides immediate insight into which asset is currently being favored by the system. This feature enhances clarity and helps traders make informed decisions quickly, without needing to analyze the underlying data manually.
Performance Overview in Tables:
The left table provides insight into both daily and overall system performance from inception, offering traders a detailed view of short-term fluctuations and long-term growth. The right-hand table breaks down essential metrics such as Sharpe ratio, Sortino ratio, Omega ratio, and maximum drawdown for each asset, as well as for the overall system and HODL strategy.
Asset-Specific Signals:
The signals column in the table indicates whether an asset is currently held or being considered for holding based on the system's dynamic rankings. This is a critical visual aid for asset reallocation decisions, signaling when it may be appropriate to either maintain or change the asset of the portfolio.
Core Features and Methodologies
Flexibility in Asset Selection
One of the major advantages of this system is its flexibility. Users can easily modify the number and type of assets included for comparison. You can quickly input different assets and backtest their performance, allowing you to verify how well this system might fit different tokens or market conditions. This flexibility empowers users to adapt the system to a wide range of market environments and tailor it to their unique preferences.
Whole System Risk Mitigation - Macro Trend Filter
One of the features of this script is its integration of a Macro-level Trend Filter for the entire portfolio. The purpose of this filter is to ensure no capital is allocated to any token in the rotation system unless Bitcoin itself is in a positive trend. The logic here is that Bitcoin, as the cryptocurrency market leader, often sets the tone for the entire cryptocurrency market. By using Bitcoins trend direction as a barometer for overall market conditions, we create a system where capital is not allocated during unfavorable or bearish market conditions - significantly reducing exposure to downside risk.
Users have the ability to toggle this filter on and off in the input menu, with five customizable options for the trend filter, including the option to use no filter. These options are:
Nova QSM - a trend aggregate combining the Rolling VWAP, Wave Pendulum Trend, KRO Overlay, and the Pulse Profiler provides the market trend signal confirmation.
Kilonova QSM - a versatile aggregate combining the Rolling VWAP, KRO Overlay, the KRO Base, RSI Volatility Bands, NNTRSI, Regression Smoothed RSI and the RoC Suite.
Quasar QSM - an enhanced version of the original RSI Pulsar. The Quasar QSM refines the trend following approach by utilizing an aggregated methodology.
Pairwise Momentum and Strength Ranking
The backbone of this system is its ability to identify the strongest-performing asset in the selected pool, ensuring that the portfolio is always exposed to the asset showing the highest relative momentum. The system continually ranks these assets against each other and determines the highest performer by measure of past and coincident outperformance. This process occurs rapidly, allowing for swift responses to shifts in market momentum, which ensures capital is always working in the most efficient manner. The speed and precision of this reallocation strategy make the script particularly well-suited for active, momentum-driven portfolios.
Beta-Adjusted Asset Selection as a Tiebreaker
In the circumstance where two (or more) assets exhibit the same relative momentum score, the system introduces another layer of analysis. In the event of a strength ‘tie’ the system will preference maintaining the current position - that is, if the previously strongest asset is now tied, the system will still allocate to the same asset. If this is not the case, the asset with the higher beta is selected. Beta is a measure of an asset’s volatility relative to Bitcoin (BTC).
This ensures that in bullish conditions, the system favors assets with a higher potential for outsized gains due to their inherent volatility. Beta is calculated based on the Average Daily Return of each asset compared to BTC. By doing this, the system ensures that it is dynamically adjusting to risk and reward, allocating to assets with higher risk in favorable conditions and lower risk in less favorable conditions.
Dynamic Asset Reallocation - Opposed to Multi-Asset Fixed Intervals
One of the standout features of this system is its ability to dynamically reallocate capital. Unlike traditional portfolio allocation strategies that may rebalance between a basket of assets monthly or quarterly, this system recalculates and reallocates capital on the next bar close (if required). As soon as a new asset exhibits superior performance relative to others, the system immediately adjusts, closing the previous position and reallocating funds to the top-ranked asset.
This approach is particularly powerful in volatile markets like cryptocurrencies, where trends can shift quickly. By reallocating swiftly, the system maximizes exposure to high-performing assets while minimizing time spent in underperforming ones. Moreover, this process is entirely automated, freeing the trader from manually tracking and measuring individual token strength.
Our research has demonstrated that, from a risk-adjusted return perspective, concentration into the top-performing asset consistently outperforms broad diversification across longer time horizons. By focusing capital on the highest-performing asset, the system captures outsized returns that are not achievable through traditional diversification. However, a more risk-averse investor, or one seeking to reduce drawdowns, may prefer to move the portfolio further left along the theoretical Capital Allocation Line by incorporating a blend of cash, treasury bonds, or other yield-generating assets or even include market neutral strategies alongside the rotation system. This hybrid approach would effectively lower the overall volatility of the portfolio while still maintaining exposure to the system’s outsized returns. In theory, such an investor can reduce risk without sacrificing too much potential upside, creating a more balanced risk-return profile.
Position Changes and Fees/Slippage
Another critical and often overlooked element of this system is its ability to account for fees and slippage. Given the increased speed and frequency of allocation logic compared to the buy-and-hold strategy, it is of vital importance that the system recognises that switching between assets may incur slippage, especially in highly volatile markets. To account for this, the system integrates realistic slippage and fee estimates directly into the equity curve, simulating expected execution costs under typical market conditions and gives users a more realistic view of expected performance.
Number of Position Changes
Understanding the number of position changes in a strategy is critical to assessing its feasibility in real world trading. Frequent position changes can lead to increased costs due to slippage and fees. Monitoring the number of position changes provides insight into the system’s behavior - helping to evaluate how active the strategy is and whether it aligns with the trader's desired time input for position management.
Equity Curve and Performance Calculations
To provide a benchmark, the script also generates a Buy-and-Hold (or "HODL") equity curve that represents an equal split across the four selected assets. This allows users to easily compare the performance of the dynamic rotation system with that of a more traditional investment strategy.
The script tracks key performance metrics for both the dynamic portfolio and the HODL strategy, including:
Sharpe Ratio
The Sharpe Ratio is a key metric that evaluates a portfolio’s risk-adjusted return by comparing its ‘excess’ return to its volatility. Traditionally, the Sharpe Ratio measures returns relative to a risk-free rate. However, in our system’s calculation, we omit the risk-free rate and instead measure returns above a benchmark of 0%. This adjustment provides a more universal comparison, especially in the context of highly volatile assets like cryptocurrencies, where a traditional risk-free benchmark, such as the usual 3-month T-bills, is often irrelevant or too distant from the realities of the crypto market.
By using 0% as the baseline, we focus purely on the strategy's ability to generate raw returns in the face of market risk, which makes it easier to compare performance across different strategies or asset classes. In an environment like cryptocurrency, where volatility can be extreme, the importance of relative return against a highly volatile backdrop outweighs comparisons to a risk-free rate that bears little resemblance to the risk profile of digital assets.
Sortino Ratio
The Sortino Ratio improves upon the Sharpe Ratio by specifically targeting downside risk and leaves the upside potential untouched. In contrast to the Sharpe Ratio (which penalizes both upside and downside volatility), the Sortino Ratio focuses only on negative return deviations. This makes it a more suitable metric for evaluating strategies like the Adaptive Pairwise Momentum Strategy - that aim to minimize drawdowns without restricting upside capture. By measuring returns relative to a 0% baseline, the Sortino ratio provides a clearer assessment of how well the system generates gains while avoiding substantial losses in highly volatile markets like crypto.
Omega Ratio
The Omega Ratio is calculated as the ratio of gains to losses across all return thresholds, providing a more complete view of how the system balances upside and downside risk even compared to the Sortino Ratio. While it achieves a similar outcome to the Sortino Ratio by emphasizing the system's ability to capture gains while limiting losses, it is technically a mathematically superior method. However, we include both the Omega and Sortino ratios in our metric table, as the Sortino Ratio remains more widely recognized and commonly understood by traders and investors of all levels.
Case Study
Notes
For the sake of brevity, the Important Notes section found in the header of this text will not be rewritten. Instead, it will be highlighted that now is the perfect time to reread these notes. Reading this case study in the context of what has been mentioned above is of key importance.
As a second note, it is worth mentioning that certain market periods are referred to as either “Bull” or “Bear” markets - terms I personally find to be vague and undefinable - and therefore unfavorable. They will be used nevertheless, due to their familiarity and ease of understanding in this context. Substitute phrases could be “Macro Uptrend” or “Macro Downtrend.”
Overview
This case study provides an in-depth performance analysis of the Adaptive Pairwise Momentum System , a long-only system that dynamically allocates to outperforming assets and moves into cash during unfavorable conditions.
This backtest includes realistic assumptions for slippage and fees, applying a 0.5% cost for every position change, which includes both asset reallocation and moving to a cash position. Additionally, the system was tested using the top four cryptocurrencies by market capitalization as of the test start date of 01/01/2022 in order to minimize selection bias.
The top tokens on this date (excluding Stablecoins) were:
Bitcoin
Ethereum
Solana
BNB
This decision was made in order to avoid cherry picking assets that might have exhibited exceptional historical performance - minimizing skew in the back test. Furthermore, although this backtest focuses on these specific assets, the system is built to be flexible and adaptable, capable of being applied to a wide range of assets beyond those initially tested.
Any potential lookahead bias or repainting in the calculations has been addressed by implementing the lookback modifier for all repainting sensitive data, including asset ratios, asset scoring, and beta values. This ensures that no future information is inadvertently used in the asset allocation process.
Additionally, a fixed lookback period of one bar is used for the trend filter during allocations - meaning that the trend filter from the prior bar must be positive for an allocation to occur on the current bar. It is also important to note that all the data displayed by the indicator is based on the last confirmed (closed) bar, ensuring that the entire system is repaint-proof.
The study spans the 2022 cryptocurrency bear market through the subsequent bull market of 2023 and 2024. The stress test highlights how the system reacted to one of the most challenging market downturns in crypto history - which includes events such as:
Luna and TerraUSD crash
Three Arrows Capital liquidation
Celsius bankruptcy
Voyager Digital bankruptcy
FTX collapse
Silicon Valley + Signature + Silvergate banking collapses
Subsequent USDC deppegging
And arguably more important, 2022 was characterized by a tightening of monetary policy after the unprecedented monetary easing in response to the Covid pandemic of 2020/2021. This shift undeniably puts downward pressure on asset prices, most probably to the extent that this had a causal role to many of the above events.
By incorporating these real-world challenges, the backtest provides a more accurate and robust performance evaluation that avoids overfitting or excessive optimization for one specific market condition.
The Bear Market of 2022: Stress Test and System Resilience
During the 2022 bear market, where the overall crypto market experienced deep and consistent corrections, the Adaptive Pairwise Momentum System demonstrated its ability to mitigate downside risk effectively.
Dynamic Allocation and Cash Exposure:
The system rotated in and out of cash, as indicated by the gray period on the system equity curve. This allocation to cash during downtrending periods, specifically in late 2022, acted as the systems ‘risk-off’ exposure - the purest form of such an exposure. This prevented the system from experiencing the magnitude of drawdown suffered by the ‘Buy-and-Hold (HODL) investors.
In contrast, a passive HODL strategy would have suffered a staggering 75.32% drawdown, as it remained fully allocated to chosen assets during the market's decline. The active Pairwise Momentum system’s smaller drawdown of 54.35% demonstrates its more effective capital preservation mechanisms.
The Bull Market of 2023 and 2024: Capturing Market Upside
Following the crypto bear market, the system effectively capitalized on the recovery and subsequent bull market of 2023 and 2024.
Maximizing Market Gains:
As trends began turning bullish in early 2023, the system caught the momentum and promptly allocated capital to only the quantified highest performing asset of the time - resulting in a parabolic rise in the system's equity curve. Notably, the curve transitions from gray to purple during this period, indicating that Solana (SOL) was the top-performing asset selected by the system.
This allocation to Solana is particularly striking because, at the time, it was an asset many in the market shunned due to its association with the FTX collapse just months prior. However, this highlights a key advantage of quantitative systems like the one presented here: decisions are driven purely from objective data - free from emotional or subjective biases. Unlike human traders, who are inclined (whether consciously or subconsciously) to avoid assets that are ‘out of favor,’ this system focuses purely on price performance, often uncovering opportunities that are overlooked by discretionary based investors. This ability to make data-driven decisions ensures that the strategy is always positioned to capture the best risk-adjusted returns, even in scenarios where judgment might fail.
Minimizing Volatility and Drawdown in Uptrends
While the system captured substantial returns during the bull market it also did so with lower volatility compared to HODL. The sharpe ratio of 4.05 (versus HODL’s 3.31) reflects the system's superior risk-adjusted performance. The allocation shifts, combined with tactical periods of cash holding during minor corrections, ensured a smoother equity curve growth compared to the buy-and-hold approach.
Final Summary
The percentage returns are mentioned last for a reason - it is important to emphasize that risk-adjusted performance is paramount. In this backtest, the Pairwise Momentum system consistently outperforms due to its ability to dynamically manage risk (as seen in the superior Sharpe, Sortino and Omega ratios). With a smaller drawdown of 54.35% compared to HODL’s 75.32%, the system demonstrates its resilience during market downturns, while also capturing the highest beta on the upside during bullish phases.
The system delivered 266.26% return since the backtest start date of January 1st 2022, compared to HODL’s 10.24%, resulting in a performance delta of 256.02%
While this backtest goes some of the way to verifying the system’s feasibility, it’s important to note that past performance is not indicative of future results - especially in volatile and evolving markets like cryptocurrencies. Market behavior can shift, and in particular, if the market experiences prolonged sideways action, trend following systems such as the Adaptive Pairwise Momentum Strategy WILL face significant challenges.
RSI Pulsar [QuantraSystems]RSI Pulsar
Introduction
The RSI Pulsar is an advanced and multifaceted tool designed to cater to the varying needs of traders, from long-term swing traders to higher-frequency day traders. This indicator takes the Relative Strength Index (RSI) to new heights by combining several unique methodologies to provide clear, actionable signals across different market conditions. With its ability to analyze impulsive trend strength, volatility, and binary market direction, the RSI Pulsar offers a holistic view of the market that assists traders in identifying robust signals and rotational opportunities within a volatile market.
The integration of dynamic color coding further aids in quick visual assessments, allowing traders to adapt swiftly to changing market conditions, making the RSI Pulsar an essential component in the arsenal of modern traders aiming for precision and adaptability in their trading endeavors.
Legend
The RSI Pulsar encapsulates various modes tailored to diverse trading strategies. The different modes are the:
Impulse Mode:
Focuses on strong outperformance, ideal for capturing movements in highly dynamic tokens.
Trend Following Mode:
A classical perpetual trend-following approach and provides binary long and short signal classifications ideal for medium term swing trading.
Ribbon Mode:
Offers quicker signals that are also binary in nature. Perfect for a confirmation signal when building higher frequency day trading systems.
Volatility Spectrum:
This feature projects a visual 'cloud' representing volatility, which helps traders spot emerging trends and potential breakouts or reversals.
Compressed Mode:
A condensed view that displays all signals in a clean and space-efficient manner. It provides a clear summary of market conditions, ideal for traders who prefer a simplified overview.
Methodology
The RSI Pulsar is built on a foundation of dynamic RSI analysis, where the traditional RSI is enhanced with advanced moving averages and standard deviation calculations. Each mode within the RSI Pulsar is designed to cater to specific aspects of the market's behavior, making it a versatile tool allowing traders to select different modes based on their trading style and market conditions.
Impulse Mode:
This mode identifies strong outperformance in assets, making it ideal for asset rotation systems. It uses a combination of RSI thresholds and dynamic moving averages to pinpoint when an asset is not just trending positively, but doing so with significant strength.
This is in contrast to typical usage of a base RSI, where elevated levels usually signal overbought and oversold periods. The RSI Pulsar flips this logic, where more extreme values are actually interpreted as a strong trend.
Trend Following Mode:
Here, the RSI is compared to the midline (the default is level 50, but a dynamic midline can also be set), to determine the prevailing trend. This mode simplifies the trend-following process, providing clear bullish or bearish signals based on whether the RSI is above or below the midline - whether a fixed or dynamic level.
Ribbon Mode:
This mode employs a series of calculated values derived from modified Heikin-Ashi smoothing to create a "ribbon" that smooths out price action and highlights underlying trends. The Ribbon Mode is particularly useful for traders who need quick confirmations of trend reversals or continuations.
Volatility Spectrum:
The Volatility Spectrum takes a unique approach to measuring market volatility by analyzing the size and direction of Heikin-Ashi candles. This data is used to create a volatility cloud that helps traders identify when volatility is rising, falling, or neutral - allowing them to adjust their strategies accordingly.
When the signal line breaks above the cloud, it signals increasing upwards volatility. When it breaks below it signifies increasing downwards volatility.
This can be used to help identify strengthening and weakening trends, as well as imminent volatile periods, allowing traders to position themselves and adapt their strategies accordingly. This mode also works as a great volatility filter for shorter term day trading strategies. It is incredibly sensitive to volatility divergences, and can give additional insights to larger market turning points.
Compressed Mode:
In Compressed Mode, all the signals from the various modes are displayed in a simplified format, making it easy for traders to quickly assess the market's overall condition without needing to delve into the details of each mode individually. Perfect for only viewing the exact data you need when live trading, or back testing.
Case Study I:
Utilizing ALMA Impulse Mode in High-Volatility Environments
Here, the RSI Pulsar is configured with an RSI length of 9 and an ALMA length of 2 in Impulse Mode. The chart example shows how this setup can identify significant price movements, allowing traders to enter positions early and capture substantial price moves. Despite the fast settings resulting in occasional false signals, the indicator's ability to catch and ride out major trends more than compensates, making it highly effective in volatile environments.
This configuration is suitable for traders seeking to trade quick, aggressive movements without enduring prolonged drawdowns. In Impulse Mode, the RSI Pulsar seeks strong trending zones, providing actionable signals that allow for timely entries and exits.
Case Study II:
SMMA Trend Following Mode for Ratio Analysis
The RSI Pulsar in Trend Following mode, configured with the SMMA with default length settings. This setup is ideal for analyzing longer-term trends, particularly useful in cryptocurrency pairs or ratio charts, where it’s crucial to identify robust directional moves. The chart showcases strong trends in the Solana/Ethereum pair. The RSI Pulsar’s ability to smooth out price action while remaining responsive to trend changes makes it an excellent tool for capturing extended price moves.
The image highlights how the RSI Pulsar efficiently tracks the strength of two tokens against each other, providing clear signals when one asset begins to outperform the other. Even in volatile markets, the SMMA ensures that the signals are reliable, filtering out noise and allowing traders to stay in the trend longer without being shaken out by minor corrections. This approach is particularly effective in ratio trading in order to inform a longer term swing trader of the strongest asset out of a customized pair.
Case Study III:
Monthly Analysis with RSI Pulsar in Ribbon Mode
This case study demonstrates the versatility and reliability of the RSI Pulsar in Ribbon mode, applied to a monthly chart of Bitcoin with an RSI length of 8 and a TEMA length of 14. This setup highlights the indicator’s robustness across multiple timeframes, extending even to long-term analysis. The RSI Pulsar effectively smooths out noise while capturing significant trends, as seen during Bitcoin bull markets. The Ribbon mode provides a clear visual representation of momentum shifts, making it easier for traders to identify trend continuations and reversals with confidence.
Case Study IV:
Divergences and Continuations with the Volatility Spectrum
Identifying harmony/divergences can be hit-or-miss at times, but this unique analysis method definitely has its merits at times. The RSI Pulsar, with its Volatility Spectrum feature, is used here to identify critical moments where price action either aligns with or diverges from the underlying volatility. As seen in the Bitcoin chart (using default settings), the indicator highlights areas where price trends either continue in harmony with volatility or diverge, signaling potential reversals. This method, while not always perfect, provides significant insight during key turning points in the market.
The Volatility Spectrum's visual representation of rising and falling volatility, combined with divergence and harmony analysis, enables traders to anticipate significant shifts in market dynamics. In this case, multiple divergences correctly identified early trend reversals, while periods of harmony indicated strong trend continuations. While this method requires careful interpretation, especially during complex market conditions, it offers valuable signals that can be pivotal in making informed trading decisions, especially if combined with other forms of analysis it can form a critical component of an investing system.
Weighted Average Volume Depth [QuantraSystems]Weighted Average Volume Depth
Introduction
The Weighted Average Volume Depth (𝓦𝓐𝓥𝓓) indicator is calibrated to provide extensive insights, calculated using volumetric price action and volume depth, and provides dynamic adjustments based upon historical volatility.
This indicator is a valuable asset for traders and investors, aiming to capture trends, measure dynamic volatility, and provide market reversion analysis in a systematic way.
Legend
Volumetric Top Cap: Plotted at y = 0, this line represents the probabilistic maximum value, or ‘cap’ for the signal line. It is colored using a binary color scheme, and indicates the dominant trend direction - green for an uptrend and purple for a downtrend.
Base Line: Calculated using a volume-weighted volatility measurement, this line is used as the benchmark to calculate momentum in the 𝓦𝓐𝓥𝓓 indicator.
Signal Line: The signal line represents the volume and volatility weighted measurements, and oscillates between the Base Line and Top Cap. Its position between these levels provides the depth of insights available in this script.
When the signal line is remaining in close proximity to the base line, this is indicative of a low volatility market environment. These periods are also reflected as muted bar coloring when the ‘Trend Intensity’ setting is enabled.
Conversely, when the signal line approaches, or even breaks above the Top Cap, this is characteristic of an unsustainable trending action - and probabilistically speaking, a reversion or consolation is likely to occur at these levels.
Highlighting: When this setting is enabled, background coloring is applied when the Signal Line breaks above the Top Cap. This highlights green as an oversold zone, and purple as an overbought zone.
Reversal Signals: When price begins to reverse from a zone of overextension, a signal is plotted when this reversion occurs from a high probability zone.
Circle - Shows a possible bullish reversal.
Cross - Shows a possible bearish reversal.
Case Study
In the above image, we showcase three distinct trades in short succession, showcasing the 𝓦𝓐𝓥𝓓’s speed and accuracy under the right conditions.
The first long trade was initiated upon receiving a bullish reversal signal. The trade was then closed after the price experienced a sharp upwards movement - and an overbought signal was indicated by the purple shading.
The second, short trade was entered on the next bar, after a bearish reversal signal was printed by the indicator (a white cross). Similarly, this trade was closed upon the oversold signal.
Once again, a reversal signal was indicated by the 𝓦𝓐𝓥𝓓 indicator. This time a bullish signal (a white circle), and hence a long position was opened. However, this trade was held until a negative trend confirmation (signaled by the Top Cap’s shift in color). This makes apparent the indicator’s flexible nature, and showcases the multiple signaling types available for traders to use.
Recommended Settings
The optimal settings for the 𝓦𝓐𝓥𝓓 indicator will vary upon the chosen asset’s average level volatility, as well as the timeframe it is applied to.
Due to increased volatility levels on lower timeframes, it is recommended to increase the 'Top Cap Multiplier' to take into account the increased frequency of false signals found in these trading environments. The same can be said when used on highly volatile assets - a trader will likely benefit from using a higher 'Top Cap Multiplier.'
On more price-stable assets, as well as any asset on higher timeframes, there is merit to tightening the length of the 'Top Cap Multiplier,' due to the slower nature of price action.
Methodology
The 𝓦𝓐𝓥𝓓 starts with calculating the volume weighted average price and the volume weighted variance - which is the expectation of the squared deviation of a variable from its mean, giving insights into the distribution of trading volume.
Using the volume weighted variance, a standard deviation value is calculated based on user input. This value acts as the ‘Volumetric Top Cap’ - seen in the 𝓦𝓐𝓥𝓓 indicator window as the zero line.
The signal line is calculated as the difference between the current price and the theoretical upper or lower VWAP deviation bands. This line acts as the trigger for identifying prevailing trends and high probability reversal points.
The base line serves as a reference point for historical momentum. It is calculated using an exponential moving average of the lowest signal line values over a defined lookback period. This baseline helps in assessing whether the current momentum is high or low relative to historical norms.
Notes
Bar coloring can be turned off - especially useful when stacking multiple indicators as recommended, or set to 'Trend Intensity,' or 'Binary Trend' (which reflects the top cap coloring).
It is always recommended to never rely on a single indicator - and instead build and test multiple strategies utilizing more than one indicator as confirmation.
Rate of Change Suite [QuantraSystems]Rate of Change Suite
Introduction
The "Rate of Change Suite" (𝓡𝓸𝓒 𝓢𝓾𝓲𝓽𝓮) refines traditional RoC concepts by incorporating additional elements that provide more nuanced views of market trends, potential reversions, and momentum shifts.
Its main benefits are that it allows traders to detect momentum changes and frontrun trend shifts.
The suite is designed to be highly adaptable, catering to various trading styles, timeframes and market conditions. It is comprised of 3 metrics:
The RoC base line plots the rate of change, the Signal Histogram to confirm trends, and the Signal Confirmation Oscillator to inform reversal probabilities. For the early detection of trend shifts, the 𝓡𝓸𝓒 𝓢𝓾𝓲𝓽𝓮 is a comprehensive tool for the toolkit of modern traders.
A core component of the 𝓡𝓸𝓒 𝓢𝓾𝓲𝓽𝓮 is the ability to apply its processing techniques to any other indicator found on TradingView - essentially leveraging the signal power of existing analysis methods. This is achieved by modifying the ‘Source’ input.
Legend
𝓡𝓸𝓒 base line: The primary component of the suite, the RoC Line, offers a direct view of market momentum. An upward trending RoC line informs the potential for a long position, while a downward trend might signal the opportunity for a short position. Both include a secondary confirmation by the color change of the line itself. The Heikin Ashi transformed version of the RoC line provides greater resistance to rapid movements, or outliers.
Signal Histogram: This feature works in tandem with the base RoC Line, providing an additional third confirmation of trends. A rising histogram supports the presence of an upward trend. Conversely, a declining histogram aligns with downward trends.
Signal Confirmation Oscillator: This dotted-line is crucial for detecting peaks or troughs in market momentum: These can precede reversals or shifts in the prevailing trend. Traders can use this signal to anticipate and prepare for potential changes quicker than others.
Case Study
Primarily a tool to follow trends, the 𝓡𝓸𝓒 𝓢𝓾𝓲𝓽𝓮 implies much more – you can trade with a confirmed trend signal entry and a mean reversion signal for the exit:
Here we see two practical cases of the 𝓡𝓸𝓒 𝓢𝓾𝓲𝓽𝓮 on the 1h BTC chart.
In the first scenario, the trader waits for three confirmations from the indicator.
The 𝓡𝓸𝓒 baseline to lead the run and looks for confirmation two and three:
𝓡𝓸𝓒 base line color shifts
and the Signal Histogram follows past the null midline.
The trader has adjusted their risk beforehand and enters the long position.
The 𝓡𝓸𝓒 𝓢𝓾𝓲𝓽𝓮 shows traders when to take profit:
The Signal Confirmation Oscillator (SCO, dotted line) moves beyond the 𝓡𝓸𝓒 baseline and the Signal Histogram. The trader can take 50% of the profit already.
The trader waits patiently, and if the SCO reverses, the rest of the position is closed.
The same works inversely for the second trade, which successfully frontran the decline shortly after.
Recommended Settings
Day Trading (1H chart)
Length: 30
Smooth Length: 10
Display Variant: Classic
Choose Mode: Trend Following
Investing – Follow Trend (1D chart)
Default settings
Notes
Quantra Standard Value Contents:
The Heikin-Ashi (HA) candle visualization smoothes out the signal line to provide more informative insights into momentum and trends. This allows earlier entries and exits by observing the indicator values transformed by the HA.
Various visualization options are available to adjust the indicator to the user’s preference: Aside from HA, a classic line, or a hybrid of both.
A special feature of Quantra’s indicators is that they are probabilistically built - therefore they work well as confluence and can easily be stacked to increase signal accuracy.
To add to Quantra's indicators’ utility we have added the option to change the price bars’ colors based on different signals:
Choose Mode for Coloring
Trend Following (Indicator above mid line counts as uptrend, below is downtrend)
Extremes (Everything beyond the SD bands is highlighted to signal mean reversion)
Candles (Color of HA candles as barcolor)
Reversions (Only for HA) (Reversion Signals via the triangles if HA candles change trend while beyond the SD bands, high probability entries/exits)
Divergence Sensitivity: Quantra’s 𝓡𝓸𝓒 𝓢𝓾𝓲𝓽𝓮 is finely tuned to detect divergences, a key feature for identifying possible trend reversals.
Trend Following and Reversions: Primarily a tool for trend following, the 𝓡𝓸𝓒 𝓢𝓾𝓲𝓽𝓮 is also adept at spotting potential reversions and slowdowns in momentum.
Range Trading Compatibility: In its Heikin Ashi Candles mode, the suite becomes particularly effective for range trading strategies.
High Customizability: Traders can customize the suite with various visualization options, including classic line representation, HA transformation, and bar coloring. These can be based on Heikin Ashi Candles or Trend Following approaches, providing flexibility to adapt to different trading scenarios.
Methodology
The 𝓡𝓸𝓒 𝓢𝓾𝓲𝓽𝓮 is built on a foundation of functions that define and calculate the Rate of Change. They employ a variety of moving average types (SMA, EMA, DEMA, TEMA, WMA, etc.) which can be selected to optimize the RoC line.
A bespoke function to calculate Heikin-Ashi values is engineered to offer a more consistent view of the trend.
The Signal Histogram is derived by mathematically processing the base RoC signal. The Signal Confirmation Oscillator is based on a modified formula, adjusted to align with the RoC dynamics.
With a range of customization options for its visual presentation, including color schemes and display styles, the 𝓡𝓸𝓒 𝓢𝓾𝓲𝓽𝓮 is designed to cater to both trend following indications as well as finding signals for mean reversion trades. This multifaceted approach enables the 𝓡𝓸𝓒 𝓢𝓾𝓲𝓽𝓮 to allow the trader to combine signals of both types to de-risk his positions.
Regression Sloped RSI [QuantraSystems]Regression Sloped RSI
Introduction
The Regression Sloped RSI (𝓡𝓢-𝓡𝓢𝓘) enhances the classical RSI by incorporating a form of linear regression analysis, which adjusts the traditional RSI in relation to the calculated slope over a specified lookback period.
Its innovative approach reduces the occurrence of false signals compared to the classical RSI. Furthermore, it is particularly effective in markets characterized by strong trends. This is because it responds faster while retaining a high level of whipsaw resistance. The Heikin-Ashi style processing is critical to this.
It also provides robust reversal signals from dynamic overbought and oversold zones to further enhance mean-reversion trading.
Legend
The coloring of the 𝓡𝓢-𝓡𝓢𝓘 changes based on trend direction: A bright green when upwards, lilac when downwards. The strength of the trend is expressed in its distance to Null. Its acceleration is found in the Heikin-Ashi (HA) candles.
The 𝓡𝓢-𝓡𝓢𝓘 in combination with the HA bars can be used to achieve earlier entries, when the former passes across the latter in an obvious divergence.
Case Study
In this example the 𝓡𝓢-𝓡𝓢𝓘 is used to make a few intra-day trades on the Ethereum 15 minute chart. Each trade was open for approximately 5 hours. On the first trade we enter a long in an early entry. The indicator gives us three confirmations which we should all check for. First we have a positive candle developing, secondly the 𝓡𝓢-𝓡𝓢𝓘 (line) rises above the Heikin-Ashi candles, thirdly the classical RSI (the saturated surface in the background) rises as well.
The trader should then calculate their position sizing responsibly and enter into a short daytrade. Please always have invalidation rules, for example a) if the initial HA candle closes negative b) you can place your stop loss at 1SD into the opposite direction.
Always use adequate risk management, never risk more than 1% of your portfolio, unless you are a seasoned trader with your own calculated position sizes.
Always forward test your rules, assets, timeframe and settings sufficiently.
It is always recommended to use multiple Quantra indicators to add confirmations to your signals - this is by design.
Recommended Settings
Please reset to defaults before enabling recommended settings.
Intra-Day Trading (15min chart)
RSI Length: 22
LR Length: 25
Smoothing: EMA
Toggle SD Bands: On
Mode for Coloring: Candles
Trend Following (4H chart)
RSI Length: 40
LR Length: 35
Smoothing: LSMA
Toggle SD Bands: Off
Mode for Coloring: Extremes or Trend Following
Notes
Quantra Standard Value Contents:
The Heikin-Ashi (HA) candle visualization smoothes out the signal line to provide more informative insights into momentum and trends. This allows earlier entries and exits by observing the indicator values transformed by the HA.
Various visualization options are available to adjust the indicator to the user’s preference: Aside from HA, a classic line, or a hybrid of both.
A special feature of Quantra’s indicators is that they are probabilistically built - therefore they work well as confluence and can easily be stacked to increase signal accuracy.
To add to Quantra's indicators’ utility we have added the option to change the price bars colors based on different signals:
Choose Mode for Coloring
Trend Following (Indicator above mid line counts as uptrend, below is downtrend)
Extremes (Everything beyond the SD bands is highlighted to signal mean reversion)
Candles (Color of HA candles as barcolor)
Reversions (Only for HA) (Reversion Signals via the triangles if HA candles change trend while beyond the SD bands, high probability entries/exits)
The 𝓡𝓢-𝓡𝓢𝓘 is finely tuned to detect divergences.
Primarily utilized for trend following, the 𝓡𝓢-𝓡𝓢𝓘 also demonstrates effectiveness in identifying reversions, intensity of movements and the navigation of range-bound markets.
Allows for easy identification of slowdowns in momentum and thus negative rate of change.
Methodology
The 𝓡𝓢-𝓡𝓢𝓘 takes the classical RSI using a specified lookback length and computes the slope of a linear regression line applied to the RSI values. This slope is used to adjust the RSI.
This sloped RSI can be further smoothed using various Moving Averages with customizable lengths.
For a more nuanced view of market trends, the 𝓡𝓢-𝓡𝓢𝓘 applies a specialized Heikin Ashi method. This transformation modifies the Sloped RSI values in order to weigh and reflect the average price, offering a smoother representation compared to traditional candlestick patterns.
The 𝓡𝓢-𝓡𝓢𝓘 calculates upper and lower bounds based on a specified standard deviation multiplier and adjustable lookback period, providing a dynamic framework to identify extrema and thus overbought and oversold conditions.
Particularly in the Heikin Ashi mode, the 𝓡𝓢-𝓡𝓢𝓘 can display reversion signals. These are plotted as shapes on the chart, indicating high probability reversal points in the market trend.
Wave Pendulum Trend [QuantraSystems]Wave Pendulum Trend
Introduction
The Wave Pendulum Trend (𝓟𝓮𝓷𝓭𝓾𝓵𝓾𝓶 𝓣𝓻𝓮𝓷𝓭) extrapolates market trends using physical principles derived from waves and pendulums. This indicator is a bespoke build, and its performance and behavior cannot be compared to existing indicators.
It is designed for trend following but is also effective for identifying mean reversions, momentum strength, and shows range-bound market periods within the dynamic bands.
In order to ascertain a smooth yet rapid trend direction of the market, the 𝓟𝓮𝓷𝓭𝓾𝓵𝓾𝓶 𝓣𝓻𝓮𝓷𝓭 combines several factors. A bespoke set of functions captures the momentum of price movements and dynamically weighs it over time. The indicator then extrapolates acceleration from the change in delta of price movements.
Legend
With bar coloring enabled, the price section mirrors current trend conditions. Please keep this feature disabled if you intend to use multiple indicators to avoid confusion.
The 𝓟𝓮𝓷𝓭𝓾𝓵𝓾𝓶 𝓣𝓻𝓮𝓷𝓭 presents extensive market insights. The purple and green bands around the oscillator signal the selected standard deviation (default σ = 2), for the trader to calculate how common the trending movements are in relation to the selected asset’s history.
The inner, dynamic thresholds, indicated by the blue “Range-bound market” label in the graphic above, border the area that signals a ranging market if both 𝓐𝓬𝓬𝓮𝓵𝓮𝓻𝓪𝓽𝓲𝓸𝓷 and 𝓜𝓸𝓶𝓮𝓷𝓽𝓾𝓶 signals remain inside. If either line exceeds these thresholds, care is advised as a shift in market behavior is underway.
“Trend strength” in the graphic provides a good estimate for the trending movements strength.
If the signal lines exceed the set standard deviation in non-classic mode, a reversal is very likely.
Case Study
As shown in the above case study we see two profitable swing trades on the 4H chart of Ethereum. Please note the display variant here is set to “Heikin-Ashi”.
We always recommend using a multitude of indicators to attain multiple signals on the likelihood of opening the correct position. However, this standalone scenario serves as an example on how the 𝓟𝓮𝓷𝓭𝓾𝓵𝓾𝓶 𝓣𝓻𝓮𝓷𝓭 added two profitable swing trades.
The first short trade was opened after the 𝓐𝓬𝓬𝓮𝓵𝓮𝓻𝓪𝓽𝓲𝓸𝓷 and 𝓜𝓸𝓶𝓮𝓷𝓽𝓾𝓶 reversed after crossing the threshold of standard deviation. This trade offered a late entry only, these two factors were followed late by the third signal in this case – the trend reversal. Such a trade would require additional indicators to signal at the same time, so the trader can get more confirmations. The trade was closed after 6D with an 8% gain on a 1x short position.
The second trade is a long position that enters in the same manner. The trader takes the reversal beyond the select standard deviation as a likely entry. After 7D a triple confirmation was received, as indicated by the triangle, that a reversal or at least a plateau is extremely likely. The trade was closed after 7D with a 17.23% gain on a 1x long position.
Recommended Settings
Trend Following / Investing (1D chart)
Please use the default settings!
Swing Trading (4H chart)
Wave MA - Type: TEMA
Wave MA – Length: 30
Display Variant: Heikin-Ashi
Bar Coloring: Off
Choose Mode for Coloring: Signal
Notes
Quantra Standard Value Contents:
The Heikin-Ashi (HA) candle visualization smoothes out the signal line to provide more informative insights into momentum and trends. This allows earlier entries and exits by observing the indicator values transformed by the HA.
Various visualization options are available to adjust the indicator to the user’s preference: Aside from HA, a classic line, or a hybrid of both.
A special feature of Quantra’s indicators is that they are probabilistically built - therefore they work well as confluence and can easily be stacked to increase signal accuracy.
To add to Quantra's indicators’ utility we have added the option to change the price bars colors based on different signals:
Settings: TEMA and DEMA length settings should be longer compared to other Moving Averages (MAs). Due to its complex calculations, the indicator requires a larger amount of historical data for accurate computation.
Sensitivity to Divergences: The Wave Pendulum Trend is particularly sensitive to divergences, making it a useful tool in spotting potential trend reversals or continuations.
Trend Following and Reversions: While it is primarily used for trend following, it also excels in identifying market reversions.
Momentum and Acceleration: The interaction between momentum and acceleration is a key feature of this indicator.
Visualization: The indicator offers various visualization options, including bar coloring based on HA Candles and extremes and trends. It also introduces a novel approach to visualizing the oscillator in the "Classic" mode and provides an adjustable Standard Deviation (SD) measure for reversal signals in non-classic modes.
Choose Mode for Coloring
Trend Following (Indicator above mid line counts as uptrend, below is downtrend)
Extremes (Everything beyond the SD bands is highlighted to signal mean reversion)
Candles (Color of HA candles as barcolor)
Reversions (Only for HA) (Reversion Signals via the triangles if HA candles change trend while beyond the SD bands, high probability entries/exits)
Methodology
The methodology behind the Wave Pendulum Trend is inspired by wave and pendulum theories to extrapolate market moves. By calculating the momentum and its acceleration from price data, it provides a nuanced view of the market trend.
Traders should observe the color coding, which reflects the interplay between momentum, acceleration, and set thresholds for acceleration. The Signal Mode is particularly useful for quickly identifying trend, momentum, and acceleration exhaustions.
Additionally, the indicator can help filter out ranges with insufficient momentum acceleration. Traders are encouraged to experiment with this mode and adjust the threshold settings to suit their strategies.
Scalper's Volatility Filter [QuantraSystems]Scalpers Volatility Filter
Introduction
The 𝒮𝒸𝒶𝓁𝓅𝑒𝓇'𝓈 𝒱𝑜𝓁𝒶𝓉𝒾𝓁𝒾𝓉𝓎 𝐹𝒾𝓁𝓉𝑒𝓇 (𝒮𝒱𝐹) is a sophisticated technical indicator, designed to increase the profitability of lower timeframe trading.
Due to the inherent decrease in the signal-to-noise ratio when trading on lower timeframes, it is critical to develop analysis methods to inform traders of the optimal market periods to trade - and more importantly, when you shouldn’t trade.
The 𝒮𝒱𝐹 uses a blend of volatility and momentum measurements, to signal the dominant market condition - trending or ranging.
Legend
The 𝒮𝒱𝐹 consists of a signal line that moves above and below a central zero line, serving as the indication of market regime.
When the signal line is positioned above zero, it indicates a period of elevated volatility. These periods are more profitable for trading, as an asset will experience larger price swings, and by design, trend-following indicators will give less false signals.
Conversely, when the signal line moves below zero, a low volatility or mean-reverting market regime dominates.
This distinction is critical for traders in order to align strategies with the prevailing market behaviors - leveraging trends in volatile markets and exercising caution or implementing mean-reversion systems in periods of lower volatility.
Case Study
Here we can see the indicator's unique edge in action.
Out of the four potential long entries seen on the chart - displayed via bar coloring, two would result in losses.
However, with the power of the 𝒮𝒱𝐹 a trader can effectively filter false signals by only entering momentum-trades when the signal line is above zero.
In this small sample of four trades, the 𝒮𝒱𝐹 increased the win rate from 50% to 100%
Methodology
The methodology behind the 𝒮𝒱𝐹 is based upon three components:
By calculating and contrasting two ATR’s, the immediate market momentum relative to the broader, established trend is calculated. The original method for this can be credited to the user @xinolia
A modified and smoothed ADX indicator is calculated to further assess the strength and sustainability of trends.
The ‘Linear Regression Dispersion’ measures price deviations from a fitted regression line, adding further confluence to the signals representation of market conditions.
Together, these components synthesize a robust, balanced view of market conditions, enabling traders to help align strategies with the prevailing market environment, in order to potentially increase expected value and win rates.
RSI Volatility Bands [QuantraSystems]RSI Volatility Bands
Introduction
The RSI Volatility Bands indicator introduces a unique approach to market analysis by combining the traditional Relative Strength Index (RSI) with dynamic, volatility adjusted deviation bands. It is designed to provide a highly customizable method of trend analysis, enabling investors to analyze potential entry and exit points in a new and profound way.
The deviation bands are calculated and drawn in a manner which allows investors to view them as areas of dynamic support and resistance.
Legend
Upper and Lower Bands - A dynamic plot of the volatility-adjusted range around the current price.
Signals - Generated when the RSI volatility bands indicate a trend shift.
Case Study
The chart highlights the occurrence of false signals, emphasizing the need for caution when the bands are contracted and market volatility is low.
Juxtaposing this, during volatile market phases as shown, the indicator can effectively adapt to strong trends. This keeps an investor in a position even through a minor drawdown in order to exploit the entire price movement.
Recommended Settings
The RSI Volatility Bands are highly customisable and can be adapted to many assets with diverse behaviors.
The calibrations used in the above screenshots are as follows:
Source = close
RSI Length = 8
RSI Smoothing MA = DEMA
Bandwidth Type = DEMA
Bandwidth Length = 24
Bandwidth Smooth = 25
Methodology
The indicator first calculates the RSI of the price data, and applies a custom moving average.
The deviation bands are then calculated based upon the absolute difference between the RSI and its moving average - providing a unique volatility insight.
The deviation bands are then adjusted with another smoothing function, providing clear visuals of the RSI’s trend within a volatility-adjusted context.
rsiVal = ta.rsi(close, rsiLength)
rsiEma = ma(rsiMA, rsiVal, bandLength)
bandwidth = ma(bandMA, math.abs(rsiVal - rsiEma), bandLength)
upperBand = ma(bandMA, rsiEma + bandwidth, smooth)
lowerBand = ma(bandMA, rsiEma - bandwidth, smooth)
long = upperBand > 50 and not (lowerBand < lowerBand and lowerBand < 50)
short= not (upperBand > 50 and not (lowerBand < lowerBand and lowerBand < 50))
By dynamically adjusting to market conditions, the RSI trend bands offer a unique perspective on market trends, and reversal zones.
Least Median of Squares Regression | ymxbThe Least Median of Squares (LMedS) is a robust statistical method predominantly used in the context of regression analysis. This technique is designed to fit a model to a dataset in a way that is resistant to outliers. Developed as an alternative to more traditional methods like Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) regression, LMedS is distinguished by its focus on minimizing the median of the squares of the residuals rather than their mean. Residuals are the differences between observed and predicted values.
The key advantage of LMedS is its robustness against outliers. In contrast to methods that minimize the mean squared residuals, the median is less influenced by extreme values, making LMedS more reliable in datasets where outliers are present. This is particularly useful in linear regression, where it identifies the line that minimizes the median of the squared residuals, ensuring that the line is not overly influenced by anomalies.
STATISTICAL PROPERTIES
A critical feature of the LMedS method is its robustness, particularly its resilience to outliers. The method boasts a high breakdown point, which is a measure of an estimator's capacity to handle outliers. In the context of LMedS, this breakdown point is approximately 50%, indicating that it can tolerate corruption of up to half of the input data points without a significant degradation in accuracy. This robustness makes LMedS particularly valuable in real-world data analysis scenarios, where outliers are common and can severely skew the results of less robust methods.
Rousseeuw, Peter J.. “Least Median of Squares Regression.” Journal of the American Statistical Association 79 (1984): 871-880.
The LMedS estimator is also characterized by its equivariance under linear transformations of the response variable. This means that whether you transform the data first and then apply LMedS, or apply LMedS first and then transform the data, the end result remains consistent. However, it's important to note that LMedS is not equivariant under affine transformations of both the predictor and response variables.
ALGORITHM
The algorithm randomly selects pairs of points, calculates the slope (m) and intercept (b) of the line, and then evaluates the median squared deviation (mr2) from this line. The line minimizing this median squared deviation is considered the best fit.
DISCLAIMER
In the LMedS approach, a subset of the data is randomly selected to compute potential models (e.g., lines in linear regression). The method then evaluates these models based on the median of the squared residuals. Since the selection of data points is random, different runs may select different subsets, leading to variability in the computed models.
Simple Neural Network Transformed RSI [QuantraSystems]Simple Neural Network Transformed RSI
Introduction
The Simple Neural Network Transformed RSI (ɴɴᴛ ʀsɪ) stands out as a formidable tool for traders who specialize in lower timeframe trading.
It is an innovative enhancement of the traditional RSI readings with simple neural network smoothing techniques.
This unique blend results in fairly accurate signals, tailored for swift market movements. The ɴɴᴛ ʀsɪ is particularly resistant to the usual market noise found in lower timeframes, ensuring a clearer view of short-term trends.
Furthermore, its diverse range of visualization options adds versatility, making it a valuable tool for traders seeking to capitalize on short-duration market dynamics.
Legend
In the Image you can see the BTCUSD 1D Chart with the ɴɴᴛ ʀsɪ in Trend Following Mode to display the current trend. This is visualized with the barcoloring.
Its Overbought and Oversold zones start at 50% and end at 100% of the selected Standard Deviation (default σ = 2), which can indicate extremely rare situations which can lead to either a softening momentum in the trend or even a mean reversion situation.
Here you can also see the original Indicator line and the Heikin Ashi transformed Indicator bars - more on that now.
Notes
Quantra Standard Value Contents:
To draw out all the information from the indicator calculation we have added a Heikin-Ashi (HA) Candle Visualization.
This HA transformation smoothens out the indicator values and gives a more informative look into Momentum and Trend of the Indicator itself.
This allows early entries and exits by observing the HA transformed Indicator values.
To diversify, different visualization options are available, either a classic line, HA transformed or Hybrid, which contains both of the previous.
To make Quantra's Indicators as useful and versatile as possible we have created options
to change the barcoloring and thus the derived signal from the indicator based on different modes.
Option to choose different Modes:
Trend Following (Indicator above mid line counts as uptrend, below is downtrend)
Extremities (Everything going beyond the Deviation Bands in a Mean Reversion manner is highlighted)
Candles (Color of HA candles as barcolor)
Reversion (HA ONLY) (Reversion Signals via the triangles if HA candles change state outside of the Deviation Bands)
- Reversion Signals are indicated by the triangles in the Heikin-Ashi or Hybrid visualization when the HA Candles revert
from downwards to upwards or the other way around OUTSIDE of the SD Bands.
Depending on the Indicator they signal OB/OS areas and can either work as high probability entries and exits for Mean Reversion trades or
indicate Momentum slow downs and potential ranges.
Please use another indicator to confirm this.
Case Study
To effectively utilize the NNT-RSI, traders should know their style and familiarize themselves with the available options.
As stated above, you have multiple modes available that you can combine as you need and see fit.
In the given example mostly only the mode was used in an isolated fashion.
Trend Following:
Purely relied on State Change - Midline crossover
Could be combined with Momentum or Reversion analysis for better entries/exits.
Extremities:
Ideal entry/exit is in the accordingly colored OS/OB Area, the Reversion signaled the latest possible entry/exit.
HA Candles:
Specifically applicable for strong trends. Powerful and fast tool.
Can whip if used as sole condition.
Reversions:
Shows the single entry and exit bars which have a positive expected value outcome.
Can also be used as confirmation or as last signal.
Please note that we always advise to find more confluence by additional indicators.
Traders are encouraged to test and determine the most suitable settings for their specific trading strategies and timeframes.
In the showcased trades the default settings were used.
Methodology
The Simple Neural Network Transformed RSI uses a simple neural network logic to process RSI values, smoothing them for more accurate trend analysis.
This is achieved through a linear combination of RSI values over a specified input length, weighted evenly to produce a neural network output.
// Simple neural network logic (linear combination with weighted aggregation)
var float inputs = array.new_float(nnLength, na)
for i = 0 to nnLength - 1
array.set(inputs, i, rsi1 )
nnOutput = 0.0
for i = 0 to nnLength - 1
nnOutput := nnOutput + array.get(inputs, i) * (1 / nnLength)
nnOutput
This output is then compared against a standard or dynamic mean line to generate trend following signals.
Mean = ta.sma(nnOutput, sdLook)
cross = useMean? 50 : Mean
The indicator also incorporates Heikin Ashi candlestick calculations to provide additional insights into market dynamics, such as trend strength and potential reversals.
// Calculate Heikin Ashi representation
ha = ha(
na(nnOutput ) ? nnOutput : nnOutput ,
math.max(nnOutput, nnOutput ),
math.min(nnOutput, nnOutput ),
nnOutput)
Standard deviation bands are used to create dynamic overbought and oversold zones, further enhancing the tool's analytical capabilities.
// Calculate Dynamic OB/OS Zones
stdv_bands(_src, _length, _mult) =>
float basis = ta.sma(_src, _length)
float dev = _mult * ta.stdev(_src, _length)
= stdv_bands(nnOutput, sdLook,sdMult/2)
= stdv_bands(nnOutput, sdLook, sdMult)
The Standard Deviation bands take defined parameters from the user, in this case sigma of ideally between 2 to 3,
to help the indicator detect extremely improbable conditions and thus take an inversely probable signal from it to forward to the user.
The parameter settings and also the visualizations allow for ample customizations by the trader.
For questions or recommendations, please feel free to seek contact in the comments.
Median of Means Estimator Median of Means (MoM) is a measure of central tendency like mean (average) and median. However, it could be a better and robust estimator of central tendency when the data is not normal, asymmetric, have fat tails (like stock price data) and have outliers. The MoM can be used as a robust trend following tool and in other derived indicators.
Median of means (MoM) is calculated as follows, the MoM estimator shuffles the "n" data points and then splits them into k groups of m data points (n= k*m). It then computes the Arithmetic Mean of each group (k). Finally, it calculate the median over the resulting k Arithmetic Means. This technique diminishes the effect that outliers have on the final estimation by splitting the data and only considering the median of the resulting sub-estimations. This preserves the overall trend despite the data shuffle.
Below is an example to illustrate the advantages of MoM
Set A Set B Set C
3 4 4
3 4 4
3 5 5
3 5 5
4 5 5
4 5 5
5 5 5
5 5 5
6 6 8
6 6 8
7 7 10
7 7 15
8 8 40
9 9 50
10 100 100
Median 5 5 5
Mean 5.5 12.1 17.9
MoM 5.7 6.0 17.3
For all three sets the median is the same, though set A and B are the same except for one outlier in set B (100) it skews the mean but the median is resilient. However, in set C the group has several high values despite that the median is not responsive and still give 5 as the central tendency of the group, but the median of means is a value of 17.3 which is very close to the group mean 17.9. In all three cases (set A, B and C) the MoM provides a better snapshot of the central tendency of the group. Note: The MoM is dependent on the way we split the data initially and the value might slightly vary when the randomization is done sevral time and the resulting value can give the confidence interval of the MoM estimator.
Setting-Less Trend-Step FilteringIntroduction
Indicators settings have been a major concern in trading strategies, in order to provide the best results each indicators involved in the strategy must have its settings optimized, when using only 1 indicator this task can easily be achieved, but an increasing number of indicators involve more slower computations, lot of softwares will use brute force for indicators settings optimization, this involve testing each indicator settings and see which setting/combination maximize the equity, in order to fasten this process softwares can use a user defined range for the indicator settings. Nonetheless the combination that maximize the equity at time t might be different at time t+1...n .
Therefore i propose an indicator without any numerical setting that aim to filter small price variations using the architecture of the T-step lsma, such indicator can provide robust filtering and can therefore be used as input for other indicators.
Robustness Vs Non Robustness
Robustness is often defined as the ability of certain statistical tools to be less affected by outliers, outliers are defined as huge variations in a data-set, high volatility movements and large gaps might be considered as outliers. However here we define robustness as the ability of an indicator to be non affected by price variations that are not correlated with the main trend, which can be defined in technical analysis as pullbacks.
Some small pullbacks in INTEL, the indicator is not affected by them, which allow the indicator to filter the price in a "smart" way.
This effect is made possible by using exponential averaging in the indicator, exponential averaging is defined as y = sc*x + (1-sc)*y , with 1 > sc > 0 . Here sc is calculated in a similar way as the kalman gain, which is in the form of a/(a + b) , in our case this is done with :
sc = abs(input - nz(b ))/(abs(input - nz(b )) + nz(a ))
Non Robust Version Of The Indicator
The user is allowed to use the non robust version of the indicator by unchecking "robust" in the setting panel, this allow a better fit with the price at the cost of less filtering.
robust checked
robust unchecked
Conclusion
I proposed a technical indicator that aim to filter short frequencies without the use of parameters, the indicator proven to be robust to various pullbacks and therefore was able to follow the main trend, although using the term trend for such small price variations might be wrong. Removing high frequencies is always beneficial in trading, noisy series are harder to manipulate, this is why you'll see a lot of indicators using median price often defined as hl2 instead of the closing price.
Like previous settings-less indicators i published this one can behave differently depending on the time frame selected by the user, lower time frames will make the indicator filter more. I'll try to make more setting-less indicators that will correct this effect.
Acknowledgements
The support and interest of the community is only thing that allowed me to be where i'am today, i'am thankful. Special thanks to the tv staff, LucF, and my family who may not have believed in this project but are still proud of their son.
Efficient Trend Step - Spotting Trends EfficientlyIntroduction
The trend-step indicator (or auto-line) was based on volatility and aimed to spot trends in an adaptive way, however the indicator was only based on volatility and didn't gave much attention to the trend, later on i would publish an efficient version of it (efficient auto-line) based on the efficiency ratio who could adapt to the trend and eliminate potential whipsaws trades, however this approach included many settings that would require changes if the user switched markets, which reduce the utility of the indicator and make it actually super inefficient.
This is why i had to propose this indicator who remove all the flaws the efficient auto-line had without removing the core idea of it.
The Indicator
The indicator is based on recursion, when the price is superior/inferior to the indicator precedent value +/- volatility metric, then the indicator is equal to the closing price, this allow the indicator to fit the price relatively well. The volatility metric used is based on 2 standard deviations, one fast and one slow and the efficiency ratio, basically when price is trending the volatility metric will be closer to the value of the fast standard deviations, which would allow the indicator to be closer to the price, else the metric will be closer to the slow standard deviation which restrain the indicator from changing, therefore the volatility metric act as a threshold.
length control the period of the efficiency ratio, lower values of length will result in a volatility metric way closer to the fast standard deviation thus making the indicator more inclined toward making false signals.
Lower values for slow will make the indicator more reactive.
The indicator can be reactive but can also be really conservative, thus even remaining unchanged in some contrary movements of the main trend, this is called robustness and has its pro's and con's.
Conclusion
The trend-step indicators family might get to an end, or not, nonetheless they can provide precise entries and be extremely robust, which is great. Using low settings might prove to be useful to remove some noise. I hope this version find its use amongst the community. Thanks for reading !
Distance Weighted Moving AverageAdopted to Pine from systemtradersuccess.com
They wrote that this average is designed to be a robust version of a moving average to reduce the impact of outliers, but I dont see a significant difference comparing it with SMA. So, I published it for the educational purposes.
To learn more about the robust filters and averages google Hampel Filter, Interquartile Range Filter and Recursive Median Filter (or any other filter that is based on quartiles).
Good luck!
