VWAP it GOODWhy: Instead of having 5 individual VWAP indicators, I found it beneficial for one view with a clean display. This VWAP indicator combines the daily, weekly, monthly, quarterly and annual into one color coded view. These colors and styles can be modified by the user.
A user can turn any timeframe off, but this is how I personally like to trade since it helps me better understand potential bounce or pullback areas.
Do your own research for what is best for you.
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VOLUME DIRECTION INDICATORDesigned for the 1-hour chart, this indicator shows:
Green Line: Volume when price rises, suggesting buying.
Red Line: Volume when price falls, indicating selling.
How to Use:
Watch for Crossover: When the Green Line moves above the Red, it might signal a budding uptrend.
Check Retracement: If the Green Line pulls back but stays above the Red, the uptrend could be strengthening.
Price Check: Look for a small price drop but not a reversal.
Trade Entry:
Enter at the high of the retracement candle.
Or wait for the Green Line to rise again.
For Precision: Draw a line at the retracement peak and switch to a shorter timeframe to find entry patterns above this line.
Remember: Use this with other tools for better trading decisions.
The Volume Direction Indicator provides a visual representation of market activity by assuming volume can be attributed to buying or selling based on price action within each bar. When the price closes higher than it opened, the volume for that period is considered as 'Bought Shares', plotted in green. Conversely, if the price closes lower, the volume is treated as 'Sold Shares', shown in red. This indicator resets daily to give a fresh perspective on trading activity each day.
Key Features:
Buying Pressure: Green line represents the cumulative volume during periods where the price increased.
Selling Pressure: Red line indicates the cumulative volume during price decreases.
Daily Reset: Accumulated values reset at the start of each new trading day, focusing on daily market sentiment.
Note: This indicator simplifies market dynamics by linking volume directly to price changes. It does not account for complex trading scenarios like short selling or market manipulations. Use this indicator as a tool to gauge general market direction and activity, not for precise transaction data.
Bar count with New day Markerbased on bar count, highlight the first Bar with special colour on every day.
30D Vs 90D Historical VolatilityVolatility equals risk for an underlying asset's price meaning bullish volatility is bearish for prices while bearish volatility is bullish. This compares 30-Day Historical Volatility to 90-Day Historical Volatility.
When the 30-Day crosses under the 90-day, this is typically when asset prices enter a bullish trend.
Conversely, When the 30-Day crosses above the 90-Day, this is when asset prices enter a bearish trend.
Peaks in volatility are bullish divergences while troughs are bearish divergences.
Advanced Physics Financial Indicator Each component represents a scientific theory and is applied to the price data in a way that reflects key principles from that theory.
Detailed Explanation
1. Fractal Geometry - High/Low Signal
Concept: Fractal geometry studies self-similar patterns that repeat at different scales. In markets, fractals can be used to detect recurring patterns or turning points.
Implementation: The script detects pivot highs and lows using ta.pivothigh and ta.pivotlow, representing local turning points in price. The fractalSignal is set to 1 for a pivot high, -1 for a pivot low, and 0 if there is no signal. This logic reflects the cyclical, self-similar nature of price movements.
Practical Use: This signal is useful for identifying local tops and bottoms, allowing traders to spot potential reversals or consolidation points where fractal patterns emerge.
2. Quantum Mechanics - Probabilistic Monte Carlo Simulation
Concept: Quantum mechanics introduces uncertainty and probability into systems, much like how future price movements are inherently uncertain. Monte Carlo simulations are used to model a range of possible outcomes based on random inputs.
Implementation: In this script, we simulate 100 random outcomes by generating a random number between -1 and 1 for each iteration. These random values are stored in an array, and the average of these values is calculated to represent the Quantum Signal.
Practical Use: This probabilistic signal provides a sense of randomness and uncertainty in the market, reflecting the possibility of price movement in either direction. It simulates the market’s chaotic nature by considering multiple possible outcomes and their average.
3. Thermodynamics - Efficiency Ratio Signal
Concept: Thermodynamics deals with energy efficiency and entropy in systems. The efficiency ratio in financial terms can be used to measure how efficiently the price is moving relative to volatility.
Implementation: The Efficiency Ratio is calculated as the absolute price change over n periods divided by the sum of absolute changes for each period within n. This ratio shows how much of the price movement is directional versus random, mimicking the concept of efficiency in thermodynamic systems.
Practical Use: A high efficiency ratio suggests that the market is trending smoothly (high efficiency), while a low ratio indicates choppy, non-directional movement (low efficiency, or high entropy).
4. Chaos Theory - ATR Signal
Concept: Chaos theory studies how complex systems are highly sensitive to initial conditions, leading to unpredictable behavior. In markets, chaotic price movements can often be captured through volatility indicators.
Implementation: The script uses a very long ATR period (1000) to reflect slow-moving chaos over time. The Chaos Signal is computed by measuring the deviation of the current price from its long-term average (SMA), normalized by ATR. This captures price deviations over time, hinting at chaotic market behavior.
Practical Use: The signal measures how far the price deviates from its long-term average, which can signal the degree of chaos or extreme behavior in the market. High deviations indicate chaotic or volatile conditions, while low deviations suggest stability.
5. Network Theory - Correlation with BTC
Concept: Network theory studies how different components within a system are interconnected. In markets, assets are often correlated, meaning that price movements in one asset can influence or be influenced by another.
Implementation: This indicator calculates the correlation between the asset’s price and the price of Bitcoin (BTC) over 30 periods. The Network Signal shows how connected the asset is to BTC, reflecting broader market dynamics.
Practical Use: In a highly correlated market, BTC can act as a leading indicator for other assets. A strong correlation with BTC might suggest that the asset is likely to move in line with Bitcoin, while a weak or negative correlation might indicate that the asset is moving independently.
6. String Theory - RSI & MACD Interaction
Concept: String theory attempts to unify the fundamental forces of nature into a single framework. In trading, we can view the RSI and MACD as interacting forces that provide insights into momentum and trend.
Implementation: The script calculates the RSI and MACD and combines them into a single signal. The formula for String Signal is (RSI - 50) / 100 + (MACD Line - Signal Line) / 100, normalizing both indicators to a scale where their contributions are additive. The RSI represents momentum, and MACD shows trend direction and strength.
Practical Use: This signal helps in detecting moments where momentum (RSI) and trend strength (MACD) align, giving a clearer picture of the asset's direction and overbought/oversold conditions. It unifies these two indicators to create a more holistic view of market behavior.
7. Fluid Dynamics - On-Balance Volume (OBV) Signal
Concept: Fluid dynamics studies how fluids move and flow. In markets, volume can be seen as a "flow" that drives price movement, much like how fluid dynamics describe the flow of liquids.
Implementation: The script uses the OBV (On-Balance Volume) indicator to track the cumulative flow of volume based on price changes. The signal is further normalized by its moving average to smooth out fluctuations and make it more reflective of price pressure over time.
Practical Use: The Fluid Signal shows how the flow of volume is driving price action. If the OBV rises significantly, it suggests that there is strong buying pressure, while a falling OBV indicates selling pressure. It’s analogous to how pressure builds in a fluid system.
8. Final Signal - Combining All Physics-Based Indicators
Implementation: Each of the seven physics-inspired signals is combined into a single Final Signal by averaging their values. This approach blends different market insights from various scientific domains, creating a comprehensive view of the market’s condition.
Practical Use: The final signal gives you a holistic, multi-dimensional view of the market by merging different perspectives (fractal behavior, quantum probability, efficiency, chaos, correlation, momentum/trend, and volume flow). This approach helps traders understand the market's dynamics from multiple angles, offering deeper insights than any single indicator.
9. Color Coding Based on Signal Extremes
Concept: The color of the final signal plot dynamically reflects whether the market is in an extreme state.
Implementation: The signal color is determined using percentiles. If the Final Signal is in the top 55th percentile of its range, the signal is green (bullish). If it is between the 45th and 55th percentiles, it is orange (neutral). If it falls below the 45th percentile, it is red (bearish).
Practical Use: This visual representation helps traders quickly identify the strength of the signal. Bullish conditions (green), neutral conditions (orange), and bearish conditions (red) are clearly distinguished, simplifying decision-making.
CSP Key Level Finder This script is designed for option sellers, particularly those using strategies like cash-secured puts (CSPs), to help automate the process of identifying key levels in the market. The core functionality is to calculate a specific price level where a 5% return can be achieved based on the historical volatility of the underlying asset. This level is visually plotted on a chart to guide traders in making more informed decisions without manually calculating the thresholds themselves.
The script incorporates implied volatility (IV) data to determine the volatility rank of the asset and calculates historical volatility (HV) based on price movements. These volatility measures help assess market conditions. The resulting key level is drawn as a line on the chart, along with a label that includes relevant information about volatility, making it easier for traders to evaluate potential option selling strategies.
Additionally, the script includes user input options, allowing users to control when to display the key level on the chart, offering flexibility based on individual needs. Overall, the script provides a visual aid for option sellers to streamline the process of identifying attractive entry points.
ATR PercentageThe ATR is a great indicator, but for me, it does not define the volatility of an asset I am looking at well enough. So I've adjusted it to be displayed as the usual ATR and a percentage of the closing prince (which to me tells a better story). I find this useful if I am looking through many assets and have to create a quick picture of volatility.
Indicator Definition: The script starts by defining an indicator named "ATR Percentage" that will be displayed in a separate pane (not overlayed on the price chart).
Input for ATR Period: The user can set the period for calculating the ATR through an input field.
ATR Calculation: The ta.atr function calculates the Average True Range based on the specified period.
ATR Percentage Calculation: The ATR value is converted to a percentage of the current closing price using (atrValue / close) * 100.
Plotting:
The script plots both the ATR value and its percentage on the chart.
A horizontal line at zero is added for reference.
Label Display: An optional label displays the current ATR percentage at every 10th bar to avoid cluttering the chart.
Background Color: A light blue background is added to visually separate the ATR indicator from other indicators.
VIDYA with Dynamic Length Based on ICPThis script is a Pine Script-based indicator that combines two key concepts: the Instantaneous Cycle Period (ICP) from Dr. John Ehlers and the Variable Index Dynamic Average (VIDYA). Here's an overview of how the script works:
Components:
Instantaneous Cycle Period (ICP):
This part of the indicator uses Dr. John Ehlers' approach to detect the market cycle length dynamically. It calculates the phase of price movement by computing the in-phase and quadrature components of the price detrended over a specific period.
The ICP helps adjust the smoothing length dynamically, giving a real-time estimate of the dominant cycle in price action. The script uses a phase calculation, adjusts it for cycle dynamics, and smoothes it for more reliable readings.
VIDYA (Variable Index Dynamic Average):
VIDYA is a moving average that dynamically adjusts its smoothing length based on the market conditions, in this case, using the RSI (Relative Strength Index) as a weight.
The length of VIDYA is determined by the dynamically calculated ICP, allowing it to adapt to changing market cycles.
This indicator performs several recursive layers of VIDYA smoothing (applying VIDYA multiple times) to provide a more refined result.
Key Features:
Dynamic Length: The length for the VIDYA calculation is derived from the smoothed ICP value, meaning that the smoothing adapts to the detected cycle length in real-time, making the indicator more responsive to market conditions.
Multiple VIDYA Layers: The script applies multiple layers of VIDYA smoothing (up to 5 iterations), further refining the output to smooth out market noise while maintaining responsiveness.
Plotting: The final smoothed VIDYA value and the smoothed ICP length are plotted. Additionally, overbought (70) and oversold (30) horizontal lines are provided for visual reference.
Application:
This indicator helps identify trends, smooths out price data, and adapts dynamically to market cycles. It's useful for detecting shifts in momentum and trends, and traders can use it to identify overbought or oversold conditions based on dynamically calculated thresholds.
Optimized WaveletsThe script, High-Resolution Volume-Price Pressure Indicator with Wavelets, utilizes wavelet transforms and high-resolution data to analyze market pressure based on volume and price dynamics. The approach combines volume data from smaller timeframes (1 second) with non-linear transformation techniques to generate a refined view of market conditions. Here’s a detailed breakdown of how it works:
Key Components:
Wavelet Transform:
A wavelet function is applied to the price and volume data to capture patterns over a set time period. This technique helps identify underlying structures in the data that might be missed with traditional moving averages.
High-Resolution Data:
The indicator fetches 1-second high-resolution data for price movements and volume. This allows the strategy to capture granular price and volume changes, crucial for short-term trading decisions.
Normalized Difference:
The script calculates the normalized difference in price and volume data. By comparing changes over the selected length, it standardizes these movements to help detect sudden shifts in market pressure.
Sigmoid Transformation:
After combining the price and volume wavelet data, a sigmoid function is applied to smooth out the resulting values. This non-linear transformation helps highlight significant moves while filtering out minor fluctuations.
Volume-Price Pressure:
The up and down volume differences, together with price movements, are combined to create a "Volume-Price Pressure Score." The final indicator reflects the pressure exerted on the market by both buyers and sellers.
Indicator Plot:
The final transformed score is plotted, showing how price and volume dynamics, combined through wavelet transformation, interact. The indicator can be used to identify potential market turning points or pressure buildups based on volume and price movement patterns.
This approach is well-suited for traders looking for advanced signal detection based on high-frequency data and can provide insight into areas where typical indicators may lag or overlook short-term volatility.
Fluid Dynamics-Inspired Indicator with Bidirectional ScalingThe "Enhanced Fluid Dynamics-Inspired Indicator with Bidirectional Scaling" is a sophisticated technical analysis tool that draws inspiration from the principles of fluid dynamics to measure both upward and downward price movements, while also incorporating volatility and momentum into its calculations. The indicator aims to provide traders with a clear understanding of market dynamics by analyzing "streamflow" (price and volume movements) in both directions, enhanced with adaptive scaling techniques.
Key Features:
Bidirectional Price Momentum:
The indicator separately calculates positive and negative momentum using the price's rate of change. This allows for independent analysis of upward and downward price movements, providing a balanced view of the market's direction.
Streamflow Model:
The "streamflow" is calculated by multiplying volume flow with price momentum. This approach treats the market as a fluid system, where the momentum and volume of trades influence the flow of prices in both upward and downward directions. Streamflow is calculated independently for each direction.
Adaptive Volatility Scaling:
Volatility is dynamically calculated using the Average True Range (ATR) and is weighted to adjust to varying market conditions. An adaptive logarithmic scaling factor is applied to the volatility to capture the dynamic nature of market environments.
DRMA (Displaced Rolling Moving Average):
The indicator uses the DRMA function to smooth out price and volume data, improving the accuracy of its measurements. This allows the indicator to capture longer-term trends while still being responsive to short-term fluctuations.
Non-Linear Scaling and Normalization:
To ensure that the output values are within a usable range, the indicator employs a sigmoid-based non-linear scaling function. This helps normalize the composite output, making it easier to interpret overbought and oversold conditions.
Visual Representation:
The indicator plots two separate lines for upward and downward market movements, making it easy to distinguish between bullish and bearish trends. Background colors are also used to highlight periods of strong upward or downward momentum, as well as high volatility.
Overbought/Oversold Conditions:
Upper and lower thresholds are used to signal potential overbought and oversold conditions. Alerts are triggered when the market moves into extreme levels, helping traders identify potential entry and exit points.
Usage:
This indicator is designed for traders who are looking for a more nuanced and dynamic tool to measure both bullish and bearish trends. By using bidirectional scaling, it provides clearer signals for market direction, while adaptive volatility and momentum adjustments ensure the indicator responds to different market environments. The alert conditions make it especially useful for timing trades in highly volatile conditions or when price movements reach extreme levels.
Fractal & Entropy Market Dynamics with Mexican Hat WaveletThis indicator combines fractal analysis, entropy, and wavelet theory to model market dynamics using a customized approach. It integrates advanced mathematical techniques to assess the complexity and structure of price action, while also incorporating volume and price volatility.
Key Concepts and Features:
Volume-Weighted Price:
The script calculates a volume-adjusted price using a moving average of volume to give more weight to periods with higher volume. This allows the indicator to account for the impact of trading volume on price movements, enhancing its sensitivity to significant price shifts.
Mexican Hat Wavelet Approximation:
The script employs the Mexican Hat Wavelet, a mathematical tool that approximates price movements based on the Laplacian of the price series. This helps capture localized oscillations in price, acting as a filter to highlight certain price dynamics over the specified length. This wavelet is commonly used to identify key inflection points and trends in financial data.
Fractal Dimension Calculation:
The fractal dimension is calculated to quantify the market's complexity. It measures how price moves between intervals, with higher values indicating chaotic or more volatile market behavior. This dimension captures the self-similarity in price movements across different time frames, a key feature of fractals.
Shannon Entropy Calculation:
Shannon Entropy is used to measure the randomness or uncertainty in the price action. It calculates the degree of unpredictability based on the price changes, providing insight into the market's informational efficiency. Higher entropy indicates more randomness, while lower entropy suggests more predictable trends.
Custom Normalization:
The script includes a custom normalization function that processes the composite score (derived from fractal dimension and entropy). This normalization helps scale the values into a consistent range, making it easier to interpret the output. The smoothing factor and RSI-based approach ensure that the normalized value reacts smoothly to the changes in market dynamics.
Composite Score:
The composite score is a weighted combination of the fractal dimension and entropy. This score aims to provide a holistic view of the market by combining the structural complexity (fractal) and randomness (entropy) into one unified metric.
Plotting and Visuals:
The indicator plots the normalized composite score on a scale where a baseline of 50 is provided for reference. The resulting plot helps traders visualize market dynamics, with the score fluctuating based on changes in the market's fractal dimension and entropy. A score above or below the baseline of 50 indicates potential market shifts.
Use Case:
The "Enhanced Fractal and Entropy Market Dynamics with Mexican Hat Wavelet" is useful for traders looking to identify market conditions where there is a balance between price structure and randomness. By integrating wavelets, fractals, and entropy, the indicator can provide insights into market complexity, helping traders recognize potential trend reversals, periods of consolidation, or increased volatility. This can be particularly effective for those employing swing trading or trend-following strategies
Bernoulli Price Dynamics with IntraBar Volume (Bidirectional)This indicator adapts the principles of Bernoulli’s equation from fluid dynamics to analyze price and volume dynamics in the market. By incorporating intrabar volume data and splitting price movements into upward and downward components, it provides a bidirectional view of the market's kinetic and potential energies. This approach helps assess market pressure in both upward and downward directions, offering insights into potential price movement with energy-based mechanics.
Key Features:
Intrabar Volume Integration: The indicator collects up and down volume data from a lower timeframe, such as seconds or minutes, to provide more granular insights.
Bidirectional Market Pressure: By separating upward and downward price movements, it calculates market pressure in both directions, which is akin to fluid pressure. The separation enables tracking of distinct upward and downward energy flows in the market.
Energy Calculation:
Kinetic Energy: This represents the "movement" aspect of the price, weighted by volume. It is calculated for both upward and downward movements based on price velocity squared.
Potential Energy: This represents the "position" aspect of the price, calculated as the product of volume and the current price level. It is also separated into upward and downward components.
Market Pressure: The difference between the total energy (sum of kinetic and potential energies) and the highest observed total energy over a defined period (N). This provides an insight into the current momentum of price movement in both directions.
Visualization:
Market Pressure Up/Down: Plots the calculated market pressure for upward (green) and downward (red) movements.
Kinetic and Potential Energies: Provides individual plots for kinetic and potential energy in both directions to analyze the behavior of price and volume in more detail.
This indicator can be used to track market momentum and potential reversals by understanding the energy and pressure dynamics in both upward and downward price movements.
SMI Ergodic Indicator/Oscillator▮ Introduction
The Stochastic Momentum Index Ergodic Indicator (SMII) is a technical analysis tool designed to predict trend reversals in the price of an asset.
It functions as a momentum oscillator, measuring the ratio of the smoothed price change to the smoothed absolute price change over a given number of previous periods.
The Ergodic SMI is based on the True Strength Index (TSI) and integrates a signal line, which is an exponential moving average (EMA) of the SMI indicator itself.
It provides a clearer picture of market trends than the traditional stochastic oscillator by incorporating the concept of "ergodicity", which helps remove market noise.
On ther other hand, the Stochastic Momentum Index Ergodic Oscillator (SMIO) is a histogram that measures the difference between TSI and it's signal line.
By default, in TradingView both SMII and SMIO are provided independently.
Here in this script these two indicators are combined, providing a more comprehensive view of price direction and market strength.
▮ Motivation: why another indicator?
The intrinsic value of this indicator lies in the fact that it allows fine adjustments in both calculation parameters, data source and visualization, features that are not present in the standard indicators or similar.
Also, trend lines breakouts and divergences detector were added.
▮ What to look for
When using the indicator, there are a few things to look out for.
First, look at the SMI signal line.
When the line crosses above -40, it is considered a buy signal, while the crossing below +40 is considered a sell signal.
Also, pay attention to divergences between the SMI and the price.
If price is rising but the SMI is showing negative divergence, it could indicate that momentum is waning and a reversal could be in the offing.
Likewise, if price is falling but the SMI is showing positive divergence, this could indicate that momentum is building and a reversal could also be in the offing.
Divergences can be considered in both indicator and/or histogram.
Examples:
▮ Notes
The indicator presented here offers both the "SMII" and the "SMIO", that is, the "Stochastic Momentum Index Ergodic Indicator" together with the "Stochastic Momentum Index Ergodic Oscillator" (histogram), as per the documentation described in reference links.
So it is important to highlight the differences in relation to my other indicator, Stochastic Momentum Index (SMI) Refurbished .
This last one is purely based on the **SMI**, which is implemented using smoothed ratio between the relative range and the high/low range.
Although they may seem the same in some situations, the calculation is actually different. The TSI tends to be more responsive at the expense of being noisier, while the SMI tends to be smoother. Which of these two indicators is best depends on the situation, the context, and the analyst's personal preference.
Please refer to reference links to more info.
▮ References
SMI documentation
SMII documentation
SMIO documentation
Distance between EMA 50-100/100-150This script calculates and plots the percentage difference between the 50-period, 100-period, and 150-period Exponential Moving Averages (EMA) on a TradingView chart. The aim is to provide a clear visual representation of the market's momentum by analyzing the distance between key EMAs over time.
Key features of this script:
1. EMA Calculation : The script computes the EMA values for 50, 100, and 150 periods and calculates the percentage difference between EMA 50 and 100, and between EMA 100 and 150.
2. Custom Threshold : Users can adjust a threshold percentage to highlight significant divergences between the EMAs. A default threshold is set to 0.1%.
3. Visual Alerts : When the percentage difference exceeds the threshold, a visual marker appears on the chart:
Green Circles for bullish momentum (positive divergence),
Red Circles for bearish momentum (negative divergence),
Diamonds to indicate the first occurrence of new bullish or bearish signals, allowing users to catch fresh market trends.
4. Dynamic Plotting : The script plots two lines representing the percentage difference for each EMA pair, offering a quick and intuitive way to monitor trends.
Ideal for traders looking to gauge market direction using the relationship between multiple EMAs, this script simplifies analysis by focusing on key moving average interactions.
thinkCNE - Key with Multiple ColoursCustomisable Key with Multi-Coloured Highlights for Chart Annotations
Overview:
This Customizable Key indicator is designed to provide traders with a clear and visually customizable legend that can be displayed on their chart. It allows users to annotate their charts with up to 10 distinct labels, each paired with a unique color-coded square. This feature is especially useful when you need to visually differentiate between various technical elements on your chart, such as support/resistance levels, Fair Value Gaps (FVGs), or important pivot points.
Key Features:
Customizable Labels and Colors: Each row in the table can be customized with unique text and background colors. This flexibility allows traders to create a personalized key that reflects the specific elements they are tracking, such as monthly FVGs, daily supports, volume-based zones, or any other custom annotations.
Flexible Number of Rows: The user can enable or disable rows as needed, which ensures that the table only shows relevant information. If fewer than 10 rows are required, the unused rows can be hidden from view, maintaining a clean and uncluttered chart.
Dynamic Table Placement: The key can be placed at different positions on the chart (top-right, middle-right, or bottom-right), giving users control over where the key appears to avoid covering important parts of their technical analysis.
Adjustable Size and Text Format: Users can customize the size of the color squares, the text, and even the overall appearance of the table. The text size can range from small to huge, making the labels easy to read based on personal preferences.
Use Cases:
Annotating Key Technical Zones: The indicator is perfect for annotating multiple technical zones or levels that require consistent attention. For example, traders can label areas like "Monthly FVG," "Daily Support," "Key Resistance," or even "Volume Spike," and color-code them accordingly for quick reference.
Drawing Clarity: A well-organized chart is essential for clear decision-making. This indicator enhances clarity by visually categorizing different chart features, making it easier to quickly interpret the chart without confusion. The customizable color squares ensure that users can quickly identify which technical element corresponds to which label on the chart.
Visual Aid for Strategy Execution: For traders using strategies involving multiple indicators, support and resistance lines, or patterns, this key helps keep track of all the elements, especially when several overlapping annotations might clutter the chart. It allows users to draw specific attention to key areas of interest and explain the rationale for each one.
Educational & Presentational Tool: If you're conducting trading education sessions or presentations, this indicator can serve as a powerful tool to explain concepts in real-time. You can present your chart with clearly marked zones or levels, where each color and label explains the reasoning behind your analysis. It’s a professional tool for walkthroughs or strategy breakdowns.
Benefits:
Enhanced Visual Organization: The color-coded squares and corresponding labels make it easier to maintain organization within a busy chart. Traders can distinguish between multiple chart elements at a glance, which enhances their focus on critical zones or setups.
Improved Decision-Making: By clearly labeling and color-coding areas of importance, traders can reduce the time it takes to assess the chart and make decisions, as the key provides a concise reference.
Customizable to Individual Needs: Traders can adapt the indicator to their specific trading style and chart elements, whether they're swing traders marking longer-term zones or day traders focusing on short-term levels.
Clarity on Complex Charts: For traders using charts with several indicators and drawings, the ability to clearly define what each color and label represents ensures that the chart remains understandable, even with multiple overlays.
Money Wave Script (Visual Adaptive MFI)This Script is a visual modification of the Money Flow Index (MFI)
//@version=5
indicator(title="Money Flow Index", shorttitle="MFI", format=format.price, precision=2, timeframe="", timeframe_gaps=true)
length = input.int(title="Length", defval=14, minval=1, maxval=2000)
src = hlc3
mf = ta.mfi(src, length)
plot(mf, "MF", color=#7E57C2)
overbought=hline(80, title="Overbought", color=#787B86)
hline(50, "Middle Band", color=color.new(#787B86, 50))
oversold=hline(20, title="Oversold", color=#787B86)
fill(overbought, oversold, color=color.rgb(126, 87, 194, 90), title="Background")
This Money Wave Script is culled from. the Money Flow Index with visual representation to help traders identify money flow. In addition, the waves can be smoothened. Here’s a detailed overview based on its functionality, color coding, usage, risk management, and a concluding summary.
Functionality
The Money Wave Script operates as an oscillator that measures the inflow and outflow of money into an asset over a specified period. It calculates the MFI by considering both price and volume, which allows it to assess buying and selling pressures more accurately than traditional indicators that rely solely on price data.
Color Coding
The indicator employs a color-coded scheme to enhance visual interpretation:
Green Area: Indicates bullish conditions when the normalized Money wave is above zero, suggesting buying pressure.
Red Area: Indicates bearish conditions when the normalized Money wave is below zero, suggesting selling pressure.
Background Colors: The background changes to green when the MoneyWave exceeds the upper threshold (overbought) and red when it falls below the lower threshold (oversold), providing immediate visual cues about market conditions.
Usage
Traders utilize the Money Wave indicator in various ways:
Identifying Overbought and Oversold Levels: By observing the MFI readings, traders can determine when an asset may be overbought or oversold, prompting potential entry or exit points.
Spotting Divergences: Traders look for divergences between price and the MFI to anticipate potential reversals. For example, if prices are making new highs but the MFI is not, it could indicate weakening momentum.
Trend Confirmation: The indicator can help confirm trends by showing whether buying or selling pressure is dominating.
Customizable Settings: Users can adjust parameters such as the MFI length , Smoothen index and overbought/oversold thresholds to tailor the indicator to their trading strategies.
Conclusion
The Money Wave indicator is a powerful tool for traders seeking to analyze market conditions based on the flow of money into and out of assets. Its combination of price and volume analysis, along with clear visual cues, makes it an effective choice for identifying overbought and oversold conditions, spotting divergences, and confirming trends.
Price Action UltimateThe Price Action Ultimate indicator is an innovative tool designed to provide traders with a comprehensive view of price action based on either volume or touches. By default, the indicator displays touches, offering a unique perspective on price levels that have been frequently interacted with by the market.
At its core, the indicator divides the price range of a specified lookback period into a number of rows (default 25). For each row, it calculates either the volume traded or the number of times the price touched that level. This data is then visualized in two ways: as a histogram and as horizontal lines on the chart.
The histogram, displayed on the right side of the chart, represents the distribution of touches (or volume) across different price levels. Each bar in the histogram shows the number of touches and the percentage of total touches for that price level. The color of the bars ranges from a user-defined low activity color to a high activity color, providing a quick visual reference for the most active price levels.
The horizontal lines drawn across the chart represent the most significant levels based on touches (or volume). By default, the indicator displays the top 3 levels, but this can be adjusted. The thickness of these lines corresponds to the relative importance of each level - thicker lines indicate more touches or higher volume. This feature allows traders to quickly identify key support and resistance levels based on historical price action.
One of the most innovative aspects of this indicator is the option to fade older levels over time. When enabled, this feature gradually increases the transparency of lines as they age, with newer levels appearing more prominently. This helps traders focus on the most recent and relevant price action while still maintaining awareness of older, potentially significant levels.
The indicator offers flexibility in its display options. Users can choose to show levels based on volume, touches, or both. This allows traders to compare and contrast different perspectives on price action. Additionally, the indicator includes options to display a volume profile and a background fill for the analysis range, further enhancing its visual appeal and informational content.
What makes this indicator particularly valuable is its ability to provide a clear, uncluttered view of key price levels without relying on complex calculations or multiple indicators. It distills price action down to its essence - where price has spent the most time or where the most trading activity has occurred. This can be incredibly useful for identifying potential support and resistance levels, areas of consolidation, or possible breakout points.
For traders focused on price action strategies, this indicator offers a powerful tool to enhance their analysis. It provides a data-driven approach to identifying significant price levels, which can be used to inform entry and exit decisions, set stop losses, or anticipate potential market reactions.
This indicator is a tool to aid in market analysis and should not be used as the sole basis for trading decisions. Always combine multiple forms of analysis and practice proper risk management when trading. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
MTF Regression with Forecast### **MTF Regression with Forecast, Treasury Yield, Additional Variable & VWAP Filter - Enhanced with Long Regression**
Unlock advanced market insights with our **MTF Regression** indicator, meticulously designed for traders seeking comprehensive multi-timeframe analysis combined with powerful forecasting tools. Whether you're a seasoned trader or just starting out, this indicator offers a suite of features to enhance your trading strategy.
#### **🔍 Key Features:**
- **Multi-Timeframe (MTF) Regression:**
- **Fast, Slow, & Long Regressions:** Analyze price trends across multiple timeframes to capture both short-term movements and long-term trends.
- **Customizable Price Inputs:**
- **Flexible Price Selection:** Choose between Close, Open, High, or Low prices to suit your trading style.
- **Price Transformation:** Option to apply Exponential Moving Averages (EMA) for smoother trend analysis.
- **Diverse Regression Methods:**
- **Multiple Algorithms:** Select from Linear, Exponential, Hull Moving Average (HMA), Weighted Moving Average (WMA), or Spline regressions to best fit your analysis needs.
- **Integrated External Data:**
- **10-Year Treasury Yield:** Incorporate macroeconomic indicators to refine regression accuracy.
- **Additional Variables:** Enhance your analysis by integrating data from other tickers (e.g., NASDAQ:AAPL).
- **Advanced Filtering Options:**
- **VWAP Filter:** Align signals with the Volume Weighted Average Price for improved trade entries.
- **Price Action Filter:** Ensure price behavior supports the generated signals for higher reliability.
- **Enhanced Signal Generation:**
- **Bullish & Bearish Signals:** Identify potential trend reversals and continuations with clear visual cues.
- **Predictive Signals:** Forecast future price movements with forward-looking arrows based on regression slopes.
- **Slope & Acceleration Thresholds:** Customize minimum slope and acceleration levels to fine-tune signal sensitivity.
- **Forecasting Capabilities:**
- **Projection Lines:** Visualize future price trends by extending regression lines based on current slope data.
- **User-Friendly Interface:**
- **Organized Settings Groups:** Easily navigate through price inputs, regression settings, integration options, and more.
- **Customizable Alerts:** Stay informed with configurable alerts for bullish, bearish, and predictive signals.
#### **📈 Why Choose MTF Regression Indicator?**
- **Comprehensive Analysis:** Combines multiple regression techniques and external data sources for a well-rounded market view.
- **Flexibility:** Highly customizable to fit various trading strategies and preferences.
- **Enhanced Decision-Making:** Provides clear signals and forecasts to support informed trading decisions.
- **Efficiency:** Optimized to deliver reliable performance without overloading your trading platform.
Elevate your trading game with the **MTF Regression with Forecast, Treasury Yield, Additional Variable & VWAP Filter** indicator. Harness the power of multi-timeframe analysis and predictive forecasting to stay ahead in the dynamic markets.
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*Feel free to reach out for more information or support. Happy Trading!*
Unlock the Power of Seasonality: Monthly Performance StrategyThe Monthly Performance Strategy leverages the power of seasonality—those cyclical patterns that emerge in financial markets at specific times of the year. From tax deadlines to industry-specific events and global holidays, historical data shows that certain months can offer strong opportunities for trading. This strategy was designed to help traders capture those opportunities and take advantage of recurring market patterns through an automated and highly customizable approach.
The Inspiration Behind the Strategy:
This strategy began with the idea that market performance is often influenced by seasonal factors. Historically, certain months outperform others due to a variety of reasons, like earnings reports, holiday shopping, or fiscal year-end events. By identifying these periods, traders can better time their market entries and exits, giving them an advantage over those who solely rely on technical indicators or news events.
The Monthly Performance Strategy was built to take this concept and automate it. Instead of manually analyzing market data for each month, this strategy enables you to select which months you want to focus on and then executes trades based on predefined rules, saving you time and optimizing the performance of your trades.
Key Features:
Customizable Month Selection: The strategy allows traders to choose specific months to test or trade on. You can select any combination of months—for example, January, July, and December—to focus on based on historical trends. Whether you’re targeting the historically strong months like December (often driven by the 'Santa Rally') or analyzing quieter months for low volatility trades, this strategy gives you full control.
Automated Monthly Entries and Exits: The strategy automatically enters a long position on the first day of your selected month(s) and exits the trade at the beginning of the next month. This makes it perfect for traders who want to benefit from seasonal patterns without manually monitoring the market. It ensures precision in entering and exiting trades based on pre-set timeframes.
Re-entry on Stop Loss or Take Profit: One of the standout features of this strategy is its ability to re-enter a trade if a position hits the stop loss (SL) or take profit (TP) level during the selected month. If your trade reaches either a SL or TP before the month ends, the strategy will automatically re-enter a new trade the next trading day. This feature ensures that you capture multiple trading opportunities within the same month, instead of exiting entirely after a successful or unsuccessful trade. Essentially, it keeps your capital working for you throughout the entire month, not just when conditions align perfectly at the beginning.
Built-in Risk Management: Risk management is a vital part of this strategy. It incorporates an Average True Range (ATR)-based stop loss and take profit system. The ATR helps set dynamic levels based on the market’s volatility, ensuring that your stops and targets adjust to changing market conditions. This not only helps limit potential losses but also maximizes profit potential by adapting to market behavior.
Historical Performance Testing: You can backtest this strategy on any period by setting the start year. This allows traders to analyze past market data and optimize their strategy based on historical performance. You can fine-tune which months to trade based on years of data, helping you identify trends and patterns that provide the best trading results.
Versatility Across Asset Classes: While this strategy can be particularly effective for stock market indices and sector rotation, it’s versatile enough to apply to other asset classes like forex, commodities, and even cryptocurrencies. Each asset class may exhibit different seasonal behaviors, allowing you to explore opportunities across various markets with this strategy.
How It Works:
The trader selects which months to test or trade, for example, January, April, and October.
The strategy will automatically open a long position on the first trading day of each selected month.
If the trade hits either the take profit or stop loss within the month, the strategy will close the current position and re-enter a new trade on the next trading day, provided the month has not yet ended. This ensures that the strategy continues to capture any potential gains throughout the month, rather than stopping after one successful trade.
At the start of the next month, the position is closed, and if the next month is also selected, a new trade is initiated following the same process.
Risk Management and Dynamic Adjustments:
Incorporating risk management with this strategy is as easy as turning on the ATR-based system. The strategy will automatically calculate stop loss and take profit levels based on the market’s current volatility, adjusting dynamically to the conditions. This ensures that the risk is controlled while allowing for flexibility in capturing profits during both high and low volatility periods.
Maximizing the Seasonal Edge:
By automating entries and exits based on specific months and combining that with dynamic risk management, the Ultimate Monthly Performance Strategy takes advantage of seasonal patterns without requiring constant monitoring. The added re-entry feature after hitting a stop loss or take profit ensures that you are always in the game, maximizing your chances to capture profitable trades during favorable seasonal periods.
Who Can Benefit from This Strategy?
This strategy is perfect for traders who:
Want to exploit the predictable, recurring patterns that occur during specific months of the year.
Prefer a hands-off, automated trading approach that allows them to focus on other aspects of their portfolio or life.
Seek to manage risk effectively with ATR-based stop losses and take profits that adjust to market conditions.
Appreciate the ability to re-enter trades when a take profit or stop loss is hit within the month, ensuring that they don't miss out on multiple opportunities during a favorable period.
In summary, the Ultimate Monthly Performance Strategy provides traders with a comprehensive tool to capitalize on seasonal trends, optimize their trading opportunities throughout the year, and manage risk effectively. The built-in re-entry system ensures you continue to benefit from the market even after hitting targets within the same month, making it a robust strategy for traders looking to maximize their edge in any market.
Risk Disclaimer:
Trading financial markets involves significant risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The Monthly Performance Strategy is designed to help traders identify seasonal trends, but past performance does not guarantee future results. It is important to carefully consider your risk tolerance, financial situation, and trading goals before using any strategy. Always use appropriate risk management and consult with a professional financial advisor if necessary. The use of this strategy does not eliminate the risk of losses, and traders should be prepared for the possibility of losing their entire investment. Be sure to test the strategy on a demo account before applying it in live markets.
D_Rock's MA IndicatorD_Rock's Moving Average Indicator
This is an indicator version of my strategy linked here
**Overview:**
The basic concept of this indicator is to generate a signal when a faster/shorter length moving average crosses over (for Longs) or crosses under (for Shorts) a medium/longer length moving average. All of which are customizable. This indicator can work on any timeframe, however the daily is the timeframe used for the default settings and screenshots, as it was designed to be a multi-day swing strategy. Once a signal has been confirmed with a candle close, based on user options, the strategy is to enter the trade on the open of the next candle.
The crossover strategy is nothing new to trading, but what can make this strategy unique and helpful, is the addition of further confirmation points before a signal is generated along with the ability to show multiple moving averages on the chart if you choose. Each moving average pair can also be turned into a "cloud" instead of the traditional lines, for additional viewing preferences. Just about everything visual can be toggled on/off as well.
This indicator is a Trend (MA) indicator with optional confirmation points using a Momentum (MACD) indicator. While a Volume-based indicator is not shown here, one could consider using their favorite from that category to further compliment the signal idea.
If you would like to see the backtesting results for your favorite moving average crossover/under, please see my strategy version linked here .
Shoutout given to Ripster's Clouds Indicator as pieces of that code were taken and modified to create both the Cloud visualization effects, and the Moving Average Pair Plots that are implemented in this strategy.
MOVING AVERAGE OPTIONS
Select between and change the length & type of up to 5 pairs (10 total) of moving averages
The "Show Cloud-x" option will display a fill color between the "a" and "b" pairs
All moving averages lines can be toggled on/off in the "Style" tab, as well as adjusting their colors.
Visualization features do not affect calculations, meaning you could have all or nothing on the chart and the strategy will still produce results
SIGNAL CHOICES
Choose the fast/shorter length MA and the medium/longer length MA to determine the entry signal
CONFIRMATION OPTIONS
Both of these have customizable values and can be toggled on/off
A candle close over a slower/much longer length moving average
An additional cross-over (cross-under for Shorts) on the MACD indicator using default MACD values. While the MACD indicator is not necessary to have on the chart, it can help to add that for visualization. The calculations will perform whether the indicator is on the chart or not.
ADDITIONAL PLOTS
MACD (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence):
- The MACD is an optional confirmation indicator for this strategy.
- Plotting the indicator is not necessary for the strategy to work, but it can be helpful to visually see the status and position of the MACD if this feature is enabled in the strategy
- This helps to identify if there is also momentum behind the entry signal
Trend Following ADX + Parabolic SAR### Strategy Description: Trend Following using **ADX** and **Parabolic SAR**
This strategy is designed to follow market trends using two popular indicators: **Average Directional Index (ADX)** and **Parabolic SAR**. The strategy attempts to enter trades when the market shows a strong trend (using ADX) and confirms the trend direction using the Parabolic SAR. Here's a breakdown:
### Key Indicators:
1. **ADX (Average Directional Index)**:
- **Purpose**: ADX measures the strength of a trend, regardless of direction.
- **Usage**: The strategy uses ADX to confirm that the market is trending. When ADX is above a certain threshold (e.g., 25), it indicates a strong trend.
- **Directional Indicators**:
- **DI+ (Directional Indicator Plus)**: Indicates upward movement strength.
- **DI- (Directional Indicator Minus)**: Indicates downward movement strength.
2. **Parabolic SAR**:
- **Purpose**: Parabolic SAR is a trend-following indicator used to identify potential reversals in the price direction.
- **Usage**: It provides specific price points above or below which the strategy confirms buy or sell signals.
### Strategy Logic:
#### **Entry Conditions**:
1. **Long Position** (Buy):
- **ADX** is above the threshold (default: 25), indicating a strong trend.
- **DI+ > DI-**, indicating the upward trend is stronger than the downward.
- The price is above the **Parabolic SAR** level, confirming the upward trend.
2. **Short Position** (Sell):
- **ADX** is above the threshold (default: 25), indicating a strong trend.
- **DI- > DI+**, indicating the downward trend is stronger than the upward.
- The price is below the **Parabolic SAR** level, confirming the downward trend.
#### **Exit Conditions**:
- Positions are closed when an opposite signal is detected.
- For example, if a long position is open and the conditions for a short position are met, the long position is closed, and a short position is opened.
### Parameters:
1. **ADX Period**: Defines the length of the period for the ADX calculation (default: 14).
2. **ADX Threshold**: The minimum value of ADX to confirm a strong trend (default: 25).
3. **Parabolic SAR Start**: The initial step for the SAR (default: 0.02).
4. **Parabolic SAR Increment**: The step increment for SAR (default: 0.02).
5. **Parabolic SAR Max**: The maximum step for SAR (default: 0.2).
### Example Trade Flow:
#### **Long Trade**:
1. ADX > 25, confirming a strong trend.
2. DI+ > DI-, indicating the market is trending upward.
3. The price is above the Parabolic SAR, confirming the upward direction.
4. **Action**: Enter a long (buy) position.
5. Exit the long position when a short signal is triggered (i.e., DI- > DI+, price below Parabolic SAR).
#### **Short Trade**:
1. ADX > 25, confirming a strong trend.
2. DI- > DI+, indicating the market is trending downward.
3. The price is below the Parabolic SAR, confirming the downward direction.
4. **Action**: Enter a short (sell) position.
5. Exit the short position when a long signal is triggered (i.e., DI+ > DI-, price above Parabolic SAR).
### Strengths of the Strategy:
- **Trend-Following**: It performs well in markets with strong trends, whether upward or downward.
- **Dual Confirmation**: The combination of ADX and Parabolic SAR reduces false signals by ensuring both trend strength and direction are considered before entering a trade.
### Weaknesses:
- **Range-Bound Markets**: This strategy may perform poorly in choppy, non-trending markets because both ADX and SAR are trend-following indicators.
- **Lagging Nature**: Since both ADX and SAR are lagging indicators, the strategy may enter trades after the trend has already started, potentially missing early profits.
### Customization:
- **ADX Threshold**: You can increase the threshold if you only want to trade in very strong trends, or lower it to capture more moderate trends.
- **SAR Parameters**: Adjusting the SAR `start`, `increment`, and `max` values will make the Parabolic SAR more or less sensitive to price changes.
### Summary:
This strategy combines the ADX and Parabolic SAR to take advantage of strong market trends. By confirming both trend strength (ADX) and trend direction (Parabolic SAR), it aims to enter high-probability trades in trending markets while minimizing false signals. However, it may struggle in sideways or non-trending markets.
For Educational purposes only !!!
(Early Test) Weekly Seasonality with Dynamic Kelly Criterion# Enhancing Trading Strategies with the Weekly Seasonality Dynamic Kelly Criterion Indicator
Amidst this pursuit to chase price, a common pitfall emerges: an overemphasis on price movements without adequate attention to risk management, probabilistic analysis, and strategic position sizing. To address these challenges, I developed the **Weekly Seasonality with Dynamic Kelly Criterion Indicator**. It is designed to refocus traders on essential aspects of trading, such as risk management and probabilistic returns, thereby catering to both short-term swing traders and long-term investors aiming for tax-efficient positions.
## The Motivation Behind the Indicator
### Overemphasis on Price: A Common Trading Pitfall
Many traders concentrate heavily on price charts and technical indicators, often neglecting the underlying principles of risk management and probabilistic analysis. This overemphasis on price can lead to:
- **Overtrading:** Making frequent trades based solely on price movements without considering the associated risks.
- **Poor Risk Management:** Failing to set appropriate stop-loss levels or position sizes, increasing the potential for significant losses.
- **Emotional Trading:** Letting emotions drive trading decisions rather than objective analysis, which can result in impulsive and irrational trades.
### The Need for Balanced Focus
To achieve sustained trading success, it is crucial to balance price analysis with robust risk management and probabilistic strategies. Key areas of focus include:
1. **Risk Management:** Implementing strategies to protect capital, such as setting stop-loss orders and determining appropriate position sizes based on risk tolerance.
2. **Probabilistic Analysis:** Assessing the likelihood of various market outcomes to make informed trading decisions.
3. **Swing Trading Percent Returns:** Capitalizing on short- to medium-term price movements by buying assets below their average return and selling them above.
## Introducing the Weekly Seasonality with Dynamic Kelly Criterion Indicator
The **Weekly Seasonality with Dynamic Kelly Criterion Indicator** is designed to integrate these essential elements into a comprehensive tool that aids traders in making informed, risk-aware decisions. Below, we explore the key components and functionalities of this indicator.
### Key Components of the Indicator
1. **Average Return (%)**
- **Definition:** The mean percentage return for each week across multiple years.
- **Purpose:** Serves as a benchmark to identify weeks with above or below-average performance, guiding buy and sell decisions.
2. **Positive Percentage (%)**
- **Definition:** The proportion of weeks that yielded positive returns.
- **Purpose:** Indicates the consistency of positive returns, helping traders gauge the reliability of certain weeks for trading.
3. **Volatility (%)**
- **Definition:** The standard deviation of weekly returns.
- **Purpose:** Measures the variability of returns, providing insights into the risk associated with trading during specific weeks.
4. **Kelly Ratio**
- **Definition:** A mathematical formula used to determine the optimal size of a series of bets to maximize the logarithmic growth of capital.
- **Purpose:** Balances potential returns against risks, guiding traders on the appropriate position size to take.
5. **Adjusted Kelly Fraction**
- **Definition:** The Kelly Ratio adjusted based on user-defined risk tolerance and external factors like Federal Reserve (Fed) stance.
- **Purpose:** Personalizes the Kelly Criterion to align with individual risk preferences and market conditions, enhancing risk management.
6. **Position Size ($)**
- **Definition:** The calculated amount to invest based on the Adjusted Kelly Fraction.
- **Purpose:** Ensures that position sizes are aligned with risk management strategies, preventing overexposure to any single trade.
7. **Max Drawdown (%)**
- **Definition:** The maximum observed loss from a peak to a trough of a portfolio, before a new peak is attained.
- **Purpose:** Assesses the worst-case scenario for losses, crucial for understanding potential capital erosion.
### Functionality and Benefits
- **Weekly Data Aggregation:** Aggregates weekly returns across multiple years to provide a robust statistical foundation for decision-making.
- **Quarterly Filtering:** Allows users to filter weeks based on quarters, enabling seasonality analysis and tailored strategies aligned with specific timeframes.
- **Dynamic Risk Adjustment:** Incorporates the Dynamic Kelly Criterion to adjust position sizes in real-time based on changing risk profiles and market conditions.
- **User-Friendly Visualization:** Presents all essential metrics in an organized Summary Table, facilitating quick and informed decision-making.
## The Origin of the Kelly Criterion and Addressing Its Limitations
### Understanding the Kelly Criterion
The Kelly Criterion, developed by John L. Kelly Jr. in 1956, is a formula used to determine the optimal size of a series of bets to maximize the long-term growth of capital. The formula considers both the probability of winning and the payout ratio, balancing potential returns against the risk of loss.
**Kelly Formula:**
\
Where:
- \( b \) = the net odds received on the wager ("b to 1")
- \( p \) = probability of winning
- \( q \) = probability of losing ( \( q = 1 - p \) )
### The Risk of Ruin
While the Kelly Criterion is effective in optimizing growth, it carries inherent risks:
- **Overbetting:** If the input probabilities or payout ratios are misestimated, the Kelly Criterion can suggest overly aggressive position sizes, leading to significant losses.
- **Assumption of Constant Probabilities:** The criterion assumes that probabilities remain constant, which is rarely the case in dynamic markets.
- **Ignoring External Factors:** Traditional Kelly implementations do not account for external factors such as Federal Reserve rates, margin requirements, or market volatility, which can impact risk and returns.
### Addressing Traditional Limitations
Recognizing these limitations, the **Weekly Seasonality with Dynamic Kelly Criterion Indicator** introduces enhancements to the traditional Kelly approach:
- **Incorporation of Fed Stance:** Adjusts the Kelly Fraction based on the current stance of the Federal Reserve (neutral, dovish, or hawkish), reflecting broader economic conditions that influence market behavior.
- **Margin and Leverage Considerations:** Accounts for margin rates and leverage, ensuring that position sizes remain within manageable risk parameters.
- **Dynamic Adjustments:** Continuously updates position sizes based on real-time risk assessments and probabilistic analyses, mitigating the risk of ruin associated with static Kelly implementations.
## How the Indicator Aids Traders
### For Short-Term Swing Traders
Short-term swing traders thrive on capitalizing over weekly price movements. The indicator aids them by:
- **Identifying Favorable Weeks:** Highlights weeks with above-average returns and favorable volatility, guiding entry and exit points.
- **Optimal Position Sizing:** Utilizes the Adjusted Kelly Fraction to determine the optimal amount to invest, balancing potential returns with risk exposure.
- **Probabilistic Insights:** Provides metrics like Positive Percentage (%) and Kelly Ratio to assess the likelihood of favorable outcomes, enhancing decision-making.
### For Long-Term Tax-Free Investors
This is effectively a drop-in replacement for DCA which uses fixed position size that doesn't change based on market conditions, as a result, it's like catching multiple falling knifes by the blade and smiling with blood on your hand... I don't know about you, but I'd rather juggle by the hilt and look like an actual professional...
Long-term investors, especially those seeking tax-free positions (e.g., through retirement accounts), benefit from:
- **Consistent Risk Management:** Ensures that position sizes are aligned with long-term capital preservation strategies.
- **Seasonality Analysis:** Allows for strategic positioning based on historical performance trends across different weeks and quarters.
- **Dynamic Adjustments:** Adapts to changing market conditions, maintaining optimal risk profiles over extended investment horizons.
### Developers
Please double check the logic and functionality because I think there are a few issue and I need to crowd source solutions and be responsible about the code I publish. If you have corrections, please DM me or leave a respectful comment.
I want to publish this by the end of the year and include other things like highlighting triple witching weeks, adding columns for volume % stats, VaR and CVaR, alpha, beta (to see the seasonal alpha and beta based off a benchmark ticker and risk free rate ticker and other little goodies.
Trend Following Moron TFM 10% System
Trend Following Moron TFM 10% System
The TFM 10% Market Timing System
The Trend Following Moron TFM 10% System is a powerful trading tool designed using Pine Script™, following the principles outlined by Dave S. Landry. This script helps traders identify optimal entry and exit points based on moving averages and market trends.
What the Script Does:
Visual representation of trend strength.
As long as it is trending in green band, trend is very strong and price is contained within 5% of the high.
As price drops to yellow band, strength is weakening and caution is advised. Price is between 5% to 10% away from52 week high.
As price drops in red band, it is to be avoided as trend is rolling over. Price is more than 10% way from 52 week high.
Moving Averages Calculation:
Users can choose between Simple Moving Average (SMA) and Exponential Moving Average (EMA) for daily, weekly, and monthly periods. The script calculates the moving averages to provide trend direction.
Trend Color Coding:
Moving averages are displayed in different colors based on market conditions: green indicates an uptrend, red for a downtrend, and gray for neutral conditions.
Highs Calculation:
The script calculates the 52-week and 12-month closing highs, which are crucial for identifying potential breakout points.
Level Definition:
Traders can set levels based on either Average True Range (ATR) or percentage changes from these highs, allowing for flexible risk management strategies.
Buy and Sell Conditions:
The script defines specific buy conditions: when the price is within 10% of the highest close and trading above the moving averages, and sell conditions: when the price falls below these thresholds.
Visual Indicators:
Buy and sell signals are visually represented on the chart with arrows, making it easy for traders to see potential trading opportunities at a glance.
Performance Labels:
The script includes performance labels that track the number of bars above or below the moving averages and the percentage change from the moving average, providing users with key metrics to evaluate their trades.
Interactive Table:
A table summarizing the buy and sell rules is displayed on the chart, ensuring that traders have quick access to the system’s trading logic.
Benefits of Using the TFM 10% System:
Streamlined Decision Making:
The script simplifies the trading process by clearly outlining buy and sell signals, making it accessible even for novice traders.
Customizable Parameters:
Users can tailor the script to their preferences by adjusting moving average types and lengths, ATR levels, and percentage thresholds. Bands are interchange able for ATR and Percent below 52 week high for volatility looks. But buy and sell are fixed in 10% threshold.
Risk Management:
By utilizing ATR and percentage levels, traders can effectively manage their risk, making the trading process more systematic.
Comprehensive Market Analysis:
The combination of multiple time frames (daily, weekly, monthly) allows for a well-rounded analysis of market trends, enhancing trading accuracy.
