Kelly Position Size CalculatorThis position sizing calculator implements the Kelly Criterion, developed by John L. Kelly Jr. at Bell Laboratories in 1956, to determine mathematically optimal position sizes for maximizing long-term wealth growth. Unlike arbitrary position sizing methods, this tool provides a scientifically solution based on your strategy's actual performance statistics and incorporates modern refinements from over six decades of academic research.
The Kelly Criterion addresses a fundamental question in capital allocation: "What fraction of capital should be allocated to each opportunity to maximize growth while avoiding ruin?" This question has profound implications for financial markets, where traders and investors constantly face decisions about optimal capital allocation (Van Tharp, 2007).
Theoretical Foundation
The Kelly Criterion for binary outcomes is expressed as f* = (bp - q) / b, where f* represents the optimal fraction of capital to allocate, b denotes the risk-reward ratio, p indicates the probability of success, and q represents the probability of loss (Kelly, 1956). This formula maximizes the expected logarithm of wealth, ensuring maximum long-term growth rate while avoiding the risk of ruin.
The mathematical elegance of Kelly's approach lies in its derivation from information theory. Kelly's original work was motivated by Claude Shannon's information theory (Shannon, 1948), recognizing that maximizing the logarithm of wealth is equivalent to maximizing the rate of information transmission. This connection between information theory and wealth accumulation provides a deep theoretical foundation for optimal position sizing.
The logarithmic utility function underlying the Kelly Criterion naturally embodies several desirable properties for capital management. It exhibits decreasing marginal utility, penalizes large losses more severely than it rewards equivalent gains, and focuses on geometric rather than arithmetic mean returns, which is appropriate for compounding scenarios (Thorp, 2006).
Scientific Implementation
This calculator extends beyond basic Kelly implementation by incorporating state of the art refinements from academic research:
Parameter Uncertainty Adjustment: Following Michaud (1989), the implementation applies Bayesian shrinkage to account for parameter estimation error inherent in small sample sizes. The adjustment formula f_adjusted = f_kelly × confidence_factor + f_conservative × (1 - confidence_factor) addresses the overconfidence bias documented by Baker and McHale (2012), where the confidence factor increases with sample size and the conservative estimate equals 0.25 (quarter Kelly).
Sample Size Confidence: The reliability of Kelly calculations depends critically on sample size. Research by Browne and Whitt (1996) provides theoretical guidance on minimum sample requirements, suggesting that at least 30 independent observations are necessary for meaningful parameter estimates, with 100 or more trades providing reliable estimates for most trading strategies.
Universal Asset Compatibility: The calculator employs intelligent asset detection using TradingView's built-in symbol information, automatically adapting calculations for different asset classes without manual configuration.
ASSET SPECIFIC IMPLEMENTATION
Equity Markets: For stocks and ETFs, position sizing follows the calculation Shares = floor(Kelly Fraction × Account Size / Share Price). This straightforward approach reflects whole share constraints while accommodating fractional share trading capabilities.
Foreign Exchange Markets: Forex markets require lot-based calculations following Lot Size = Kelly Fraction × Account Size / (100,000 × Base Currency Value). The calculator automatically handles major currency pairs with appropriate pip value calculations, following industry standards described by Archer (2010).
Futures Markets: Futures position sizing accounts for leverage and margin requirements through Contracts = floor(Kelly Fraction × Account Size / Margin Requirement). The calculator estimates margin requirements as a percentage of contract notional value, with specific adjustments for micro-futures contracts that have smaller sizes and reduced margin requirements (Kaufman, 2013).
Index and Commodity Markets: These markets combine characteristics of both equity and futures markets. The calculator automatically detects whether instruments are cash-settled or futures-based, applying appropriate sizing methodologies with correct point value calculations.
Risk Management Integration
The calculator integrates sophisticated risk assessment through two primary modes:
Stop Loss Integration: When fixed stop-loss levels are defined, risk calculation follows Risk per Trade = Position Size × Stop Loss Distance. This ensures that the Kelly fraction accounts for actual risk exposure rather than theoretical maximum loss, with stop-loss distance measured in appropriate units for each asset class.
Strategy Drawdown Assessment: For discretionary exit strategies, risk estimation uses maximum historical drawdown through Risk per Trade = Position Value × (Maximum Drawdown / 100). This approach assumes that individual trade losses will not exceed the strategy's historical maximum drawdown, providing a reasonable estimate for strategies with well-defined risk characteristics.
Fractional Kelly Approaches
Pure Kelly sizing can produce substantial volatility, leading many practitioners to adopt fractional Kelly approaches. MacLean, Sanegre, Zhao, and Ziemba (2004) analyze the trade-offs between growth rate and volatility, demonstrating that half-Kelly typically reduces volatility by approximately 75% while sacrificing only 25% of the growth rate.
The calculator provides three primary Kelly modes to accommodate different risk preferences and experience levels. Full Kelly maximizes growth rate while accepting higher volatility, making it suitable for experienced practitioners with strong risk tolerance and robust capital bases. Half Kelly offers a balanced approach popular among professional traders, providing optimal risk-return balance by reducing volatility significantly while maintaining substantial growth potential. Quarter Kelly implements a conservative approach with low volatility, recommended for risk-averse traders or those new to Kelly methodology who prefer gradual introduction to optimal position sizing principles.
Empirical Validation and Performance
Extensive academic research supports the theoretical advantages of Kelly sizing. Hakansson and Ziemba (1995) provide a comprehensive review of Kelly applications in finance, documenting superior long-term performance across various market conditions and asset classes. Estrada (2008) analyzes Kelly performance in international equity markets, finding that Kelly-based strategies consistently outperform fixed position sizing approaches over extended periods across 19 developed markets over a 30-year period.
Several prominent investment firms have successfully implemented Kelly-based position sizing. Pabrai (2007) documents the application of Kelly principles at Berkshire Hathaway, noting Warren Buffett's concentrated portfolio approach aligns closely with Kelly optimal sizing for high-conviction investments. Quantitative hedge funds, including Renaissance Technologies and AQR, have incorporated Kelly-based risk management into their systematic trading strategies.
Practical Implementation Guidelines
Successful Kelly implementation requires systematic application with attention to several critical factors:
Parameter Estimation: Accurate parameter estimation represents the greatest challenge in practical Kelly implementation. Brown (1976) notes that small errors in probability estimates can lead to significant deviations from optimal performance. The calculator addresses this through Bayesian adjustments and confidence measures.
Sample Size Requirements: Users should begin with conservative fractional Kelly approaches until achieving sufficient historical data. Strategies with fewer than 30 trades may produce unreliable Kelly estimates, regardless of adjustments. Full confidence typically requires 100 or more independent trade observations.
Market Regime Considerations: Parameters that accurately describe historical performance may not reflect future market conditions. Ziemba (2003) recommends regular parameter updates and conservative adjustments when market conditions change significantly.
Professional Features and Customization
The calculator provides comprehensive customization options for professional applications:
Multiple Color Schemes: Eight professional color themes (Gold, EdgeTools, Behavioral, Quant, Ocean, Fire, Matrix, Arctic) with dark and light theme compatibility ensure optimal visibility across different trading environments.
Flexible Display Options: Adjustable table size and position accommodate various chart layouts and user preferences, while maintaining analytical depth and clarity.
Comprehensive Results: The results table presents essential information including asset specifications, strategy statistics, Kelly calculations, sample confidence measures, position values, risk assessments, and final position sizes in appropriate units for each asset class.
Limitations and Considerations
Like any analytical tool, the Kelly Criterion has important limitations that users must understand:
Stationarity Assumption: The Kelly Criterion assumes that historical strategy statistics represent future performance characteristics. Non-stationary market conditions may invalidate this assumption, as noted by Lo and MacKinlay (1999).
Independence Requirement: Each trade should be independent to avoid correlation effects. Many trading strategies exhibit serial correlation in returns, which can affect optimal position sizing and may require adjustments for portfolio applications.
Parameter Sensitivity: Kelly calculations are sensitive to parameter accuracy. Regular calibration and conservative approaches are essential when parameter uncertainty is high.
Transaction Costs: The implementation incorporates user-defined transaction costs but assumes these remain constant across different position sizes and market conditions, following Ziemba (2003).
Advanced Applications and Extensions
Multi-Asset Portfolio Considerations: While this calculator optimizes individual position sizes, portfolio-level applications require additional considerations for correlation effects and aggregate risk management. Simplified portfolio approaches include treating positions independently with correlation adjustments.
Behavioral Factors: Behavioral finance research reveals systematic biases that can interfere with Kelly implementation. Kahneman and Tversky (1979) document loss aversion, overconfidence, and other cognitive biases that lead traders to deviate from optimal strategies. Successful implementation requires disciplined adherence to calculated recommendations.
Time-Varying Parameters: Advanced implementations may incorporate time-varying parameter models that adjust Kelly recommendations based on changing market conditions, though these require sophisticated econometric techniques and substantial computational resources.
Comprehensive Usage Instructions and Practical Examples
Implementation begins with loading the calculator on your desired trading instrument's chart. The system automatically detects asset type across stocks, forex, futures, and cryptocurrency markets while extracting current price information. Navigation to the indicator settings allows input of your specific strategy parameters.
Strategy statistics configuration requires careful attention to several key metrics. The win rate should be calculated from your backtest results using the formula of winning trades divided by total trades multiplied by 100. Average win represents the sum of all profitable trades divided by the number of winning trades, while average loss calculates the sum of all losing trades divided by the number of losing trades, entered as a positive number. The total historical trades parameter requires the complete number of trades in your backtest, with a minimum of 30 trades recommended for basic functionality and 100 or more trades optimal for statistical reliability. Account size should reflect your available trading capital, specifically the risk capital allocated for trading rather than total net worth.
Risk management configuration adapts to your specific trading approach. The stop loss setting should be enabled if you employ fixed stop-loss exits, with the stop loss distance specified in appropriate units depending on the asset class. For stocks, this distance is measured in dollars, for forex in pips, and for futures in ticks. When stop losses are not used, the maximum strategy drawdown percentage from your backtest provides the risk assessment baseline. Kelly mode selection offers three primary approaches: Full Kelly for aggressive growth with higher volatility suitable for experienced practitioners, Half Kelly for balanced risk-return optimization popular among professional traders, and Quarter Kelly for conservative approaches with reduced volatility.
Display customization ensures optimal integration with your trading environment. Eight professional color themes provide optimization for different chart backgrounds and personal preferences. Table position selection allows optimal placement within your chart layout, while table size adjustment ensures readability across different screen resolutions and viewing preferences.
Detailed Practical Examples
Example 1: SPY Swing Trading Strategy
Consider a professionally developed swing trading strategy for SPY (S&P 500 ETF) with backtesting results spanning 166 total trades. The strategy achieved 110 winning trades, representing a 66.3% win rate, with an average winning trade of $2,200 and average losing trade of $862. The maximum drawdown reached 31.4% during the testing period, and the available trading capital amounts to $25,000. This strategy employs discretionary exits without fixed stop losses.
Implementation requires loading the calculator on the SPY daily chart and configuring the parameters accordingly. The win rate input receives 66.3, while average win and loss inputs receive 2200 and 862 respectively. Total historical trades input requires 166, with account size set to 25000. The stop loss function remains disabled due to the discretionary exit approach, with maximum strategy drawdown set to 31.4%. Half Kelly mode provides the optimal balance between growth and risk management for this application.
The calculator generates several key outputs for this scenario. The risk-reward ratio calculates automatically to 2.55, while the Kelly fraction reaches approximately 53% before scientific adjustments. Sample confidence achieves 100% given the 166 trades providing high statistical confidence. The recommended position settles at approximately 27% after Half Kelly and Bayesian adjustment factors. Position value reaches approximately $6,750, translating to 16 shares at a $420 SPY price. Risk per trade amounts to approximately $2,110, representing 31.4% of position value, with expected value per trade reaching approximately $1,466. This recommendation represents the mathematically optimal balance between growth potential and risk management for this specific strategy profile.
Example 2: EURUSD Day Trading with Stop Losses
A high-frequency EURUSD day trading strategy demonstrates different parameter requirements compared to swing trading approaches. This strategy encompasses 89 total trades with a 58% win rate, generating an average winning trade of $180 and average losing trade of $95. The maximum drawdown reached 12% during testing, with available capital of $10,000. The strategy employs fixed stop losses at 25 pips and take profit targets at 45 pips, providing clear risk-reward parameters.
Implementation begins with loading the calculator on the EURUSD 1-hour chart for appropriate timeframe alignment. Parameter configuration includes win rate at 58, average win at 180, and average loss at 95. Total historical trades input receives 89, with account size set to 10000. The stop loss function is enabled with distance set to 25 pips, reflecting the fixed exit strategy. Quarter Kelly mode provides conservative positioning due to the smaller sample size compared to the previous example.
Results demonstrate the impact of smaller sample sizes on Kelly calculations. The risk-reward ratio calculates to 1.89, while the Kelly fraction reaches approximately 32% before adjustments. Sample confidence achieves 89%, providing moderate statistical confidence given the 89 trades. The recommended position settles at approximately 7% after Quarter Kelly application and Bayesian shrinkage adjustment for the smaller sample. Position value amounts to approximately $700, translating to 0.07 standard lots. Risk per trade reaches approximately $175, calculated as 25 pips multiplied by lot size and pip value, with expected value per trade at approximately $49. This conservative position sizing reflects the smaller sample size, with position sizes expected to increase as trade count surpasses 100 and statistical confidence improves.
Example 3: ES1! Futures Systematic Strategy
Systematic futures trading presents unique considerations for Kelly criterion application, as demonstrated by an E-mini S&P 500 futures strategy encompassing 234 total trades. This systematic approach achieved a 45% win rate with an average winning trade of $1,850 and average losing trade of $720. The maximum drawdown reached 18% during the testing period, with available capital of $50,000. The strategy employs 15-tick stop losses with contract specifications of $50 per tick, providing precise risk control mechanisms.
Implementation involves loading the calculator on the ES1! 15-minute chart to align with the systematic trading timeframe. Parameter configuration includes win rate at 45, average win at 1850, and average loss at 720. Total historical trades receives 234, providing robust statistical foundation, with account size set to 50000. The stop loss function is enabled with distance set to 15 ticks, reflecting the systematic exit methodology. Half Kelly mode balances growth potential with appropriate risk management for futures trading.
Results illustrate how favorable risk-reward ratios can support meaningful position sizing despite lower win rates. The risk-reward ratio calculates to 2.57, while the Kelly fraction reaches approximately 16%, lower than previous examples due to the sub-50% win rate. Sample confidence achieves 100% given the 234 trades providing high statistical confidence. The recommended position settles at approximately 8% after Half Kelly adjustment. Estimated margin per contract amounts to approximately $2,500, resulting in a single contract allocation. Position value reaches approximately $2,500, with risk per trade at $750, calculated as 15 ticks multiplied by $50 per tick. Expected value per trade amounts to approximately $508. Despite the lower win rate, the favorable risk-reward ratio supports meaningful position sizing, with single contract allocation reflecting appropriate leverage management for futures trading.
Example 4: MES1! Micro-Futures for Smaller Accounts
Micro-futures contracts provide enhanced accessibility for smaller trading accounts while maintaining identical strategy characteristics. Using the same systematic strategy statistics from the previous example but with available capital of $15,000 and micro-futures specifications of $5 per tick with reduced margin requirements, the implementation demonstrates improved position sizing granularity.
Kelly calculations remain identical to the full-sized contract example, maintaining the same risk-reward dynamics and statistical foundations. However, estimated margin per contract reduces to approximately $250 for micro-contracts, enabling allocation of 4-5 micro-contracts. Position value reaches approximately $1,200, while risk per trade calculates to $75, derived from 15 ticks multiplied by $5 per tick. This granularity advantage provides better position size precision for smaller accounts, enabling more accurate Kelly implementation without requiring large capital commitments.
Example 5: Bitcoin Swing Trading
Cryptocurrency markets present unique challenges requiring modified Kelly application approaches. A Bitcoin swing trading strategy on BTCUSD encompasses 67 total trades with a 71% win rate, generating average winning trades of $3,200 and average losing trades of $1,400. Maximum drawdown reached 28% during testing, with available capital of $30,000. The strategy employs technical analysis for exits without fixed stop losses, relying on price action and momentum indicators.
Implementation requires conservative approaches due to cryptocurrency volatility characteristics. Quarter Kelly mode is recommended despite the high win rate to account for crypto market unpredictability. Expected position sizing remains reduced due to the limited sample size of 67 trades, requiring additional caution until statistical confidence improves. Regular parameter updates are strongly recommended due to cryptocurrency market evolution and changing volatility patterns that can significantly impact strategy performance characteristics.
Advanced Usage Scenarios
Portfolio position sizing requires sophisticated consideration when running multiple strategies simultaneously. Each strategy should have its Kelly fraction calculated independently to maintain mathematical integrity. However, correlation adjustments become necessary when strategies exhibit related performance patterns. Moderately correlated strategies should receive individual position size reductions of 10-20% to account for overlapping risk exposure. Aggregate portfolio risk monitoring ensures total exposure remains within acceptable limits across all active strategies. Professional practitioners often consider using lower fractional Kelly approaches, such as Quarter Kelly, when running multiple strategies simultaneously to provide additional safety margins.
Parameter sensitivity analysis forms a critical component of professional Kelly implementation. Regular validation procedures should include monthly parameter updates using rolling 100-trade windows to capture evolving market conditions while maintaining statistical relevance. Sensitivity testing involves varying win rates by ±5% and average win/loss ratios by ±10% to assess recommendation stability under different parameter assumptions. Out-of-sample validation reserves 20% of historical data for parameter verification, ensuring that optimization doesn't create curve-fitted results. Regime change detection monitors actual performance against expected metrics, triggering parameter reassessment when significant deviations occur.
Risk management integration requires professional overlay considerations beyond pure Kelly calculations. Daily loss limits should cease trading when daily losses exceed twice the calculated risk per trade, preventing emotional decision-making during adverse periods. Maximum position limits should never exceed 25% of account value in any single position regardless of Kelly recommendations, maintaining diversification principles. Correlation monitoring reduces position sizes when holding multiple correlated positions that move together during market stress. Volatility adjustments consider reducing position sizes during periods of elevated VIX above 25 for equity strategies, adapting to changing market conditions.
Troubleshooting and Optimization
Professional implementation often encounters specific challenges requiring systematic troubleshooting approaches. Zero position size displays typically result from insufficient capital for minimum position sizes, negative expected values, or extremely conservative Kelly calculations. Solutions include increasing account size, verifying strategy statistics for accuracy, considering Quarter Kelly mode for conservative approaches, or reassessing overall strategy viability when fundamental issues exist.
Extremely high Kelly fractions exceeding 50% usually indicate underlying problems with parameter estimation. Common causes include unrealistic win rates, inflated risk-reward ratios, or curve-fitted backtest results that don't reflect genuine trading conditions. Solutions require verifying backtest methodology, including all transaction costs in calculations, testing strategies on out-of-sample data, and using conservative fractional Kelly approaches until parameter reliability improves.
Low sample confidence below 50% reflects insufficient historical trades for reliable parameter estimation. This situation demands gathering additional trading data, using Quarter Kelly approaches until reaching 100 or more trades, applying extra conservatism in position sizing, and considering paper trading to build statistical foundations without capital risk.
Inconsistent results across similar strategies often stem from parameter estimation differences, market regime changes, or strategy degradation over time. Professional solutions include standardizing backtest methodology across all strategies, updating parameters regularly to reflect current conditions, and monitoring live performance against expectations to identify deteriorating strategies.
Position sizes that appear inappropriately large or small require careful validation against traditional risk management principles. Professional standards recommend never risking more than 2-3% per trade regardless of Kelly calculations. Calibration should begin with Quarter Kelly approaches, gradually increasing as comfort and confidence develop. Most institutional traders utilize 25-50% of full Kelly recommendations to balance growth with prudent risk management.
Market condition adjustments require dynamic approaches to Kelly implementation. Trending markets may support full Kelly recommendations when directional momentum provides favorable conditions. Ranging or volatile markets typically warrant reducing to Half or Quarter Kelly to account for increased uncertainty. High correlation periods demand reducing individual position sizes when multiple positions move together, concentrating risk exposure. News and event periods often justify temporary position size reductions during high-impact releases that can create unpredictable market movements.
Performance monitoring requires systematic protocols to ensure Kelly implementation remains effective over time. Weekly reviews should compare actual versus expected win rates and average win/loss ratios to identify parameter drift or strategy degradation. Position size efficiency and execution quality monitoring ensures that calculated recommendations translate effectively into actual trading results. Tracking correlation between calculated and realized risk helps identify discrepancies between theoretical and practical risk exposure.
Monthly calibration provides more comprehensive parameter assessment using the most recent 100 trades to maintain statistical relevance while capturing current market conditions. Kelly mode appropriateness requires reassessment based on recent market volatility and performance characteristics, potentially shifting between Full, Half, and Quarter Kelly approaches as conditions change. Transaction cost evaluation ensures that commission structures, spreads, and slippage estimates remain accurate and current.
Quarterly strategic reviews encompass comprehensive strategy performance analysis comparing long-term results against expectations and identifying trends in effectiveness. Market regime assessment evaluates parameter stability across different market conditions, determining whether strategy characteristics remain consistent or require fundamental adjustments. Strategic modifications to position sizing methodology may become necessary as markets evolve or trading approaches mature, ensuring that Kelly implementation continues supporting optimal capital allocation objectives.
Professional Applications
This calculator serves diverse professional applications across the financial industry. Quantitative hedge funds utilize the implementation for systematic position sizing within algorithmic trading frameworks, where mathematical precision and consistent application prove essential for institutional capital management. Professional discretionary traders benefit from optimized position management that removes emotional bias while maintaining flexibility for market-specific adjustments. Portfolio managers employ the calculator for developing risk-adjusted allocation strategies that enhance returns while maintaining prudent risk controls across diverse asset classes and investment strategies.
Individual traders seeking mathematical optimization of capital allocation find the calculator provides institutional-grade methodology previously available only to professional money managers. The Kelly Criterion establishes theoretical foundation for optimal capital allocation across both single strategies and multiple trading systems, offering significant advantages over arbitrary position sizing methods that rely on intuition or fixed percentage approaches. Professional implementation ensures consistent application of mathematically sound principles while adapting to changing market conditions and strategy performance characteristics.
Conclusion
The Kelly Criterion represents one of the few mathematically optimal solutions to fundamental investment problems. When properly understood and carefully implemented, it provides significant competitive advantage in financial markets. This calculator implements modern refinements to Kelly's original formula while maintaining accessibility for practical trading applications.
Success with Kelly requires ongoing learning, systematic application, and continuous refinement based on market feedback and evolving research. Users who master Kelly principles and implement them systematically can expect superior risk-adjusted returns and more consistent capital growth over extended periods.
The extensive academic literature provides rich resources for deeper study, while practical experience builds the intuition necessary for effective implementation. Regular parameter updates, conservative approaches with limited data, and disciplined adherence to calculated recommendations are essential for optimal results.
References
Archer, M. D. (2010). Getting Started in Currency Trading: Winning in Today's Forex Market (3rd ed.). John Wiley & Sons.
Baker, R. D., & McHale, I. G. (2012). An empirical Bayes approach to optimising betting strategies. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series D (The Statistician), 61(1), 75-92.
Breiman, L. (1961). Optimal gambling systems for favorable games. In J. Neyman (Ed.), Proceedings of the Fourth Berkeley Symposium on Mathematical Statistics and Probability (pp. 65-78). University of California Press.
Brown, D. B. (1976). Optimal portfolio growth: Logarithmic utility and the Kelly criterion. In W. T. Ziemba & R. G. Vickson (Eds.), Stochastic Optimization Models in Finance (pp. 1-23). Academic Press.
Browne, S., & Whitt, W. (1996). Portfolio choice and the Bayesian Kelly criterion. Advances in Applied Probability, 28(4), 1145-1176.
Estrada, J. (2008). Geometric mean maximization: An overlooked portfolio approach? The Journal of Investing, 17(4), 134-147.
Hakansson, N. H., & Ziemba, W. T. (1995). Capital growth theory. In R. A. Jarrow, V. Maksimovic, & W. T. Ziemba (Eds.), Handbooks in Operations Research and Management Science (Vol. 9, pp. 65-86). Elsevier.
Kahneman, D., & Tversky, A. (1979). Prospect theory: An analysis of decision under risk. Econometrica, 47(2), 263-291.
Kaufman, P. J. (2013). Trading Systems and Methods (5th ed.). John Wiley & Sons.
Kelly Jr, J. L. (1956). A new interpretation of information rate. Bell System Technical Journal, 35(4), 917-926.
Lo, A. W., & MacKinlay, A. C. (1999). A Non-Random Walk Down Wall Street. Princeton University Press.
MacLean, L. C., Sanegre, E. O., Zhao, Y., & Ziemba, W. T. (2004). Capital growth with security. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 28(4), 937-954.
MacLean, L. C., Thorp, E. O., & Ziemba, W. T. (2011). The Kelly Capital Growth Investment Criterion: Theory and Practice. World Scientific.
Michaud, R. O. (1989). The Markowitz optimization enigma: Is 'optimized' optimal? Financial Analysts Journal, 45(1), 31-42.
Pabrai, M. (2007). The Dhandho Investor: The Low-Risk Value Method to High Returns. John Wiley & Sons.
Shannon, C. E. (1948). A mathematical theory of communication. Bell System Technical Journal, 27(3), 379-423.
Tharp, V. K. (2007). Trade Your Way to Financial Freedom (2nd ed.). McGraw-Hill.
Thorp, E. O. (2006). The Kelly criterion in blackjack sports betting, and the stock market. In L. C. MacLean, E. O. Thorp, & W. T. Ziemba (Eds.), The Kelly Capital Growth Investment Criterion: Theory and Practice (pp. 789-832). World Scientific.
Van Tharp, K. (2007). Trade Your Way to Financial Freedom (2nd ed.). McGraw-Hill Education.
Vince, R. (1992). The Mathematics of Money Management: Risk Analysis Techniques for Traders. John Wiley & Sons.
Vince, R., & Zhu, H. (2015). Optimal betting under parameter uncertainty. Journal of Statistical Planning and Inference, 161, 19-31.
Ziemba, W. T. (2003). The Stochastic Programming Approach to Asset, Liability, and Wealth Management. The Research Foundation of AIMR.
Further Reading
For comprehensive understanding of Kelly Criterion applications and advanced implementations:
MacLean, L. C., Thorp, E. O., & Ziemba, W. T. (2011). The Kelly Capital Growth Investment Criterion: Theory and Practice. World Scientific.
Vince, R. (1992). The Mathematics of Money Management: Risk Analysis Techniques for Traders. John Wiley & Sons.
Thorp, E. O. (2017). A Man for All Markets: From Las Vegas to Wall Street. Random House.
Cover, T. M., & Thomas, J. A. (2006). Elements of Information Theory (2nd ed.). John Wiley & Sons.
Ziemba, W. T., & Vickson, R. G. (Eds.). (2006). Stochastic Optimization Models in Finance. World Scientific.
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The Daily Bias Dashboard📜 Overview
This indicator is a powerful statistical tool designed to provide traders with a probable Daily Bias based on historical price action. It is built upon the concepts of Quarterly Theory, which divides the 24-hour trading day into 4 distinct sessions to analyze market behavior.
This tool analyzes how the market has behaved in the past to give you a statistical edge. It answers the question: "Based on the last X number of days, what is the most likely way the price will move during the Newyork AM & PM Sessions based on Asian & London Sessions?"
⚙️ How It Works
The indicator divides the 24-hour day (based on the America/New_York timezone) into two 12-hour halves:
First Half - 12 Hour Candle: The Accumulation/Manipulation or Asian/London Sessions (6 PM to 6 AM NY Time)
This period covers the Asian session and the start of the London session.
The indicator's only job here is to identify the highest high and lowest low of this 12-hour block, establishing the initial daily range.
Second Half - 12 Hour Candle: The Distribution/Continuation or NY AM/PM Sessions (6 AM to 6 PM NY Time)
This period covers the main London session and the full New York session.
The indicator actively watches to see if, and in what order, the price breaks out of the range established in Session 1 (FIrst Half of the day).
By tracking this behavior over hundreds of days, the indicator compiles statistics on four possible daily scenarios.
📊 The Four Scenarios & The Dashboard
The indicator presents its findings in a clean, easy-to-read dashboard, calculating the historical probability of each of the following scenarios:
↓ Low, then ↑ High: The price first breaks the low of Session 1 (often a liquidity sweep or stop hunt) before reversing to break the high of Session 1. This suggests a "sweep and reverse" bullish day.
↑ High, then ↓ Low: The price first breaks the high of Session 1 before reversing to break the low of Session 1. This suggests a "sweep and reverse" bearish day.
One-Sided Breakout: The price breaks only one of the boundaries (either the high or the low) and continues in that direction without taking the other side. This indicates a strong, trending day.
No Breakout (Inside Bar): The price fails to break either the high or the low of Session 1, remaining contained within its range. This indicates a day of consolidation and low volatility.
🧠 How to Use This Indicator
This is a confluence tool, not a standalone trading system. Its purpose is to help you frame a high-probability narrative for the trading day.
Establish a Bias: Start checking the dashboard at 06:00 AM Newyork time, which is the start of next half day trading session. If one scenario has a significantly higher probability (e.g., "One-Sided Breakout" at 89%), you have a statistically-backed directional bias in the direction of Breakout.
🔧 Features & Settings
Historical Days to Analyze: Set how many past days the indicator should use for its statistical analysis (default is 500).
Session Timezone : The calculation is locked to America/New_York as it is central to the Quarterly Theory concept, but this setting ensures correct alignment.
Dashboard Display: Fully customize the on-screen table, including its position and text size, or hide it completely.
⚠️ Important Notes
For maximum accuracy, use this indicator on hourly (H1) or lower timeframes.
The statistical probabilities are based on past performance and are not a guarantee of future results.
This tool is designed to sharpen your analytical skills and provide a robust, data-driven framework for your daily trading decisions. Use it to build confidence in your directional bias and to better understand the rhythm of the market.
Disclaimer: This indicator is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. All trading involves risk.
Multi-Timeframe RSIRSI Divergence (Time-Based Engine)
This script is a powerful and highly customizable tool designed to automatically detect and display RSI divergences from up to three independent, user-defined timeframes directly on your chart. It eliminates the need to manually switch between timeframes to find these critical trading signals, allowing you to see long-term and short-term divergences all in one place.
The engine is built to be flexible, supporting both regular (reversal) divergences and hidden (trend-continuation) divergences. It's designed for traders who rely on divergence analysis as a core part of their strategy.
Key Features
Multi-Timeframe (MTF) Analysis: Configure and display divergences from up to three different timeframes simultaneously (e.g., show 4-Hour, Daily, and Weekly divergences on your 1-Hour chart). Each timeframe operates independently with its own settings.
Regular & Hidden Divergence: The script can detect both standard regular divergences that signal potential reversals and hidden divergences that suggest a trend may continue.
Configurable Pivot Strength: You have full control over the sensitivity of pivot detection. The 'Left Strength' and 'Right Strength' settings allow you to define what qualifies as a significant price pivot, filtering out market noise.
Bar Count Filter: Refine your signals by setting the minimum and maximum number of bars allowed between two pivots. This ensures you only see divergences that fit your specific strategic timeframe.
Dedicated Alerts: Each of the three timeframes has its own "Enable Alerts" toggle. When a new divergence line is drawn on the chart for a specific timeframe, a corresponding alert can be triggered, ensuring you never miss a potential setup.
Full Visual Customization: Tailor the look and feel of the indicator to your preference. Each timeframe has unique color settings for its bullish and bearish lines, allowing for easy visual identification. You can also toggle the visibility of various chart markers to keep your view clean.
How to Use
1. Add the indicator to your chart.
2. Open the Settings panel.
3. For each timeframe you wish to use (1, 2, or 3), check the "Enable Timeframe" box.
4. Select the desired Timeframe, RSI Length, and Pivot Strength for each active engine.
5. Adjust the Min/Max Bars filter to match your trading style.
6. If you want to receive notifications, check the "Enable Alerts" box for the desired timeframe(s). Then, create an alert using TradingView's alert manager, selecting the indicator and choosing the "Any alert() function call" option.
Pivot Points HL DetailedThis indicator marks important turning points in the market, showing you the most recent swing high and swing low as horizontal lines across the chart. Each pivot line has a price label where it formed and a small counter that updates whenever the market touches that level again. The line’s color reflects the prevailing trend, determined by an EMA filter, so you can quickly see if the level is likely acting as support or resistance in the current market environment.
It works by scanning recent bars for points where price made a local high higher than several bars to its left and right, or a local low lower than several bars to its left and right. These pivots are calculated directly from price action using the ta.pivothigh and ta.pivotlow functions. Once identified, the level is tracked in real time, counting every time price crosses it. The EMA provides context: if price is above the EMA, the market is considered in an uptrend and the pivots are colored to match; if price is below, they’re marked as part of a downtrend.
For traders, this offers a clean way to see where the market has turned before and whether those levels are still relevant. Strong levels often show multiple touches, which can be used for entries, exits, or risk management. The built-in alert system can notify you when price approaches either the most recent swing high or swing low, so you can react quickly.
This tool can be applied in almost any market — forex, stocks, indices, commodities, or crypto — because price tends to respect recent swing points regardless of the asset class. It tends to be most effective in liquid markets, where many traders see and react to the same key levels, and it’s valuable in both trending and ranging conditions, though the EMA trend filter adds extra clarity when the market is moving directionally.
Hammer & Shooting Star — StrategyHammer & Shooting Star Strategy for Intraday Trading
This strategy identifies two candlestick patterns commonly used in technical analysis:
Hammer Candles (a bullish reversal signal):
A hammer candle has a small body at the top with a long lower wick. The strategy goes long on the next bar open when a hammer is detected, with a stop loss at the low of the hammer bar and a target at the high.
Shooting Star Candles (a bearish reversal signal):
A shooting star candle has a small body at the bottom with a long upper wick. The strategy goes short on the next bar open when a shooting star is detected, with a stop loss at the high of the shooting star bar and a target at the low.
TSI Indicator with Trailing StopAuthor: ProfitGang
Type: Indicator (visual + alerts). No orders are executed.
What it does
This tool combines the True Strength Index (TSI) with a simple tick-based trailing stop visualizer.
It plots buy/sell markers from a TSI cross with momentum confirmation and, if enabled, draws a trailing stop line that “ratchets” in your favor. It also shows a compact info table (position state, entry price, trailing status, and unrealized ticks).
Signal logic (summary)
TSI is computed with double EMA smoothing (user lengths).
Signals:
Buy when TSI crosses above its signal line and momentum (TSI–Signal histogram) improves, with TSI above your Buy Threshold.
Sell when TSI crosses below its signal line and momentum weakens, with TSI below your Sell Threshold.
Confirmation: Optional “Confirm on bar close” setting evaluates signals on closed bars to reduce repaint risk.
Trailing stop (visual only)
Units are ticks (uses the symbol’s min tick).
Start Trailing After (ticks): activates the trail only once price has moved in your favor by the set amount.
Trailing Stop (ticks): distance from price once active.
For longs: stop = close - trail; it never moves down.
For shorts: stop = close + trail; it never moves up.
Exits shown on chart when the trailing line is touched or an opposite signal occurs.
Note: This is a simulation for visualization and does not place, manage, or guarantee broker orders.
Inputs you can tune
TSI Settings: Long Length, Short Length, Signal Length, Buy/Sell thresholds, Confirm on Close.
Trailing Stop: Start Trailing After (ticks), Trailing Stop (ticks), Show/Hide trailing lines.
Display: Toggle chart signals, info table, and (optionally) TSI plots on the price chart.
Alerts included
TSI Buy / TSI Sell
Long/Short Trailing Activated
Long/Short Trail Exit
Tips for use
Timeframes/markets: Works on any symbol/timeframe that reports a valid min tick. If your market has large ticks, adjust the tick inputs accordingly.
TSI view: By default, TSI lines are hidden to avoid rescaling the price chart. Enable “Show TSI plots on price chart” if you want to see the oscillator inline.
Non-repainting note: With Confirm on bar close enabled, signals are evaluated on closed bars. Intrabar previews can change until the bar closes—this is expected behavior in TradingView.
Limitations
This is an indicator for education/research. It does not execute trades, and visuals may differ from actual broker fills.
Performance varies by market conditions; thresholds and trail settings should be tested by the user.
Disclaimer
Nothing here is financial advice. Markets involve risk, including possible loss of capital. Always do your own research and test on a demo before using any tool in live trading.
— ProfitGang
Gemini Trend Following SystemStrategy Description: The Gemini Trend Following System
Core Philosophy
This is a long-term trend-following system designed for a position trader or a patient swing trader, not a day trader. The fundamental goal is to capture the majority of a stock's major, multi-month or even multi-year uptrend.
The core principle is: "Buy weakness in a confirmed uptrend, and sell only when the uptrend's structure is fundamentally broken."
It operates on the belief that it's more profitable to ride a durable trend than to chase short-term breakouts or worry about daily price fluctuations. It prioritizes staying in a winning trade over frequent trading.
The Three Pillars of the Strategy
The script's logic is built on three distinct pillars, processed in order:
1. The Regime Filter: "Is This Stock in a Healthy Uptrend?"
Before even considering a trade, the script acts as a strict gatekeeper. It will only "watch" a stock if it meets all the criteria of a healthy, long-term uptrend. This is the most important part of the strategy as it filters out weak or speculative stocks.
A stock passes this filter if:
The 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) is above the 200-day SMA. This is the classic definition of a "Golden Cross" state, indicating the medium-term trend is stronger than the long-term trend—a hallmark of a bull market for the stock.
The stock's performance over the last year is positive. The Rate of Change (ROC) must be above a minimum threshold (e.g., 15%). This ensures we are only looking at stocks that have already demonstrated significant strength.
The 200-day SMA itself is rising. This is a crucial check to ensure the very foundation of the trend is solid and not flattening out or beginning to decline.
If a stock doesn't meet these conditions, the script ignores it completely.
2. The Entry Trigger: "When to Buy the Dip"
Once a stock is confirmed to be in a healthy uptrend, the script does not buy immediately. Instead, it patiently waits for a point of lower risk and higher potential reward—a pullback.
The entry trigger is a specific, two-step sequence:
The stock price first dips and closes below its 50-day SMA. This signifies a period of temporary weakness or profit-taking.
The price then recovers and closes back above the 50-day SMA within a short period (10 bars).
This sequence is a powerful signal. It suggests that institutional buyers view the 50-day SMA as a key support level and have stepped in to defend it, overpowering the sellers. The entry occurs at this point of confirmed support, marking the likely resumption of the uptrend. On the chart, this event is highlighted with a teal background.
3. The Exit Strategy: "When is the Trend Over?"
The exit logic is designed to keep you in the trade as long as possible and only sell when the trend's character has fundamentally changed. It uses a dual-exit system:
Primary Exit (Trend Failure): The main reason to sell is a "Death Cross"—when the 50-day SMA crosses below the 200-day SMA. This is a robust, albeit lagging, signal that the long-term uptrend is over and a bearish market structure is taking hold. This exit condition is designed to ignore normal market corrections and only trigger when the underlying trend has truly broken. On the chart, this is highlighted with a maroon background.
Safety-Net Exit (Catastrophic Stop-Loss): To protect against a sudden market crash or a company-specific disaster, a "safety-net" stop-loss is placed at the time of entry. This stop is set far below the entry price, typically underneath the 200-day SMA. It is a "just-in-case" measure that should only be triggered in a severe and rapid decline, protecting your capital from an unexpected black swan event.
Who is This Strategy For?
Position Traders: Investors who are comfortable holding a stock for many months to over a year.
Patient Swing Traders: Traders who want to capture large price swings over weeks and months, not days.
Investors using a Rules-Based Approach: Anyone looking to apply a disciplined, non-emotional system to their long-term portfolio.
Ideal Market Conditions
This strategy excels in markets with clear, durable trends. It performs best on strong, leading stocks during a sustained bull market. It will underperform significantly or generate losses in choppy, sideways, or range-bound markets, where the moving averages will frequently cross back and forth, leading to "whipsaw" trades.
Volume Profile (Simple)Simple Volume Profile (Simple)
Master the Market's Structure with a Clear View of Volume
by mercaderoaurum
The Simple Volume Profile (Simple) indicator removes the guesswork by showing you exactly where the most significant trading activity has occurred. By visualizing the Point of Control (POC) and Value Area (VA) for today and yesterday, you can instantly identify the price levels that matter most, giving you a critical edge in your intraday trading.
This tool is specifically optimized for day trading SPY on a 1-minute chart, but it's fully customizable for any symbol or timeframe.
Key Features
Multi-Day Analysis: Automatically plots the volume profiles for the current and previous trading sessions, allowing you to see how today's market is reacting to yesterday's key levels.
Automatic Key Level Plotting: Instantly see the most important levels from each session:
Point of Control (POC): The single price level with the highest traded volume, acting as a powerful magnet for price.
Value Area High (VAH): The upper boundary of the area where 50% of the volume was traded. It often acts as resistance.
Value Area Low (VAL): The lower boundary of the 50% value area, often acting as support.
Extended Levels: The POC, VAH, and VAL from previous sessions are automatically extended into the current day, providing a clear map of potential support and resistance zones.
Customizable Sessions: While optimized for the US stock market, you can define any session time and time zone, making it a versatile tool for forex, crypto, and futures traders.
Core Trading Strategies
The Simple Volume Profile helps you understand market context. Instead of trading blind, you can now make decisions based on where the market has shown the most interest.
1. Identifying Support and Resistance
This is the most direct way to use the indicator. The extended lines from the previous day are your roadmap for the current session.
Previous Day's POC (pPOC): This is the most significant level. Watch for price to react strongly here. It can act as powerful support if approached from above or strong resistance if approached from below.
Previous Day's VAH (pVAH): Expect this level to act as initial resistance. A clean break above pVAH can signal a strong bullish trend.
Previous Day's VAL (pVAL): Expect this level to act as initial support. A firm break below pVAL can indicate a strong bearish trend.
Example Strategy: If SPY opens and rallies up to the previous day's VAH and stalls, this is a high-probability area to look for a short entry, with a stop loss just above the level.
2. The "Open-Drive" Rejection
How the market opens in relation to the previous day's value area is a powerful tell.
Open Above Yesterday's Value Area: If the market opens above the pVAH, it signals strength. The first pullback to test the pVAH is often a key long entry point. The level is expected to flip from resistance to support.
Open Below Yesterday's Value Area: If the market opens below the pVAL, it signals weakness. The first rally to test the pVAL is a potential short entry, as the level is likely to act as new resistance.
3. Fading the Extremes
When price pushes far outside the previous day's value area, it can become overextended.
Reversal at Highs: If price rallies significantly above the pVAH and then starts to lose momentum (e.g., forming bearish divergence on RSI or a topping pattern), it could be an opportunity to short the market, targeting a move back toward the pVAH or pPOC.
Reversal at Lows: Conversely, if price drops far below the pVAL and shows signs of bottoming, it can be a good opportunity to look for a long entry, targeting a reversion back to the value area.
Recommended Settings (SPY Intraday)
These settings are the default and are optimized for scalping or day trading SPY on a 1-minute chart.
Value Area (%): 50%. This creates a tighter, more sensitive value area, perfect for identifying the most critical intraday zones.
Number of Rows: 1000. This high resolution is essential for a low-volatility instrument like SPY, ensuring that the profile is detailed and the levels are precise.
Session Time: 0400-1800 in America/New_York. This captures the full pre-market and core session, which is crucial for understanding the day's complete volume story.
Ready to trade with an edge? Add the Simple Volume Profile (Multi-Day) to your chart now and see the market in a new light!
Gelişmiş Mum Ters StratejiAdvanced Candle Reversal Strategy Overview
This TradingView PineScript indicator detects potential reversal signals in candlestick patterns, focusing on a sequence of directional candles followed by a wick-based reversal candle. Here's a step-by-step breakdown:
User Inputs:
candleCount (default: 6): Number of consecutive candles required (2–20).
wickRatio (default: 1.5): Minimum wick-to-body ratio for reversal (1.0–5.0).
Options to show background colors and an info table.
Candle Calculations:
Computes body size (|close - open|), upper wick (high - max(close, open)), and lower wick (min(close, open) - low).
Identifies bullish (close > open) or bearish (close < open) candles.
Checks for long upper wick (≥ body * wickRatio) for short signals or long lower wick for long signals.
Sequence Check:
Verifies if the last candleCount candles are all bearish (for long signal) or all bullish (for short signal), including the current candle.
Signal Conditions:
Long Signal: candleCount bearish candles + current candle has long lower wick (plotted as green upward triangle below bar with "LONG" text).
Short Signal: candleCount bullish candles + current candle has long upper wick (plotted as red downward triangle above bar with "SHORT" text).
Additional Features:
Alerts for signals with custom messages.
Optional translucent background color (green for long, red for short).
Plots tiny crosses for long wicks not triggering full signals (yellow above for upper, orange below for lower).
Info table (top-right): Displays strategy summary, candle count, and signal explanations.
Debug label: On signals, shows wick/body ratio above the bar.
The strategy aims for reversals after trends (e.g., after 6 red candles, a red candle with long lower wick signals buy). Customize via inputs; backtest for effectiveness. Not financial advice.
Energy Advanced Policy StrategyThis trading strategy emphasizes both technical trading as well as sentiment trading. Using news and government policy decisions, it can determine either positive or negative sentiment in the energy sector.
How the Strategy Works
This strategy has two main parts that work together to find good trades:
1. The "Policy & Sentiment Engine "
Policy Event Detection : The script spots potential big news or policy changes by looking for big, sudden price moves and huge trading volume. You can play with the Policy Event Volume Threshold and Policy Event Price Threshold (%) settings to make it more or less sensitive.
Sentiment Score : When the script finds a positive or negative event, it adds to a sentiment score. This score isn't forever, though; it fades over time, so the newest events matter the most.
Manual Override : The Manual News Sentiment setting lets you tell the script exactly what the market's mood is for a set time, which is perfect for when you already know about a big upcoming announcement.
The strategy only looks for a trade if the overall feeling is bullish enough. This makes sure you're trading with the big, fundamental forces of the market, not against them.
2. Technical Confirmation & Precision
After the policy and sentiment part gives a green light, the strategy uses a variety of technical indicators to confirm the trend and ideal entry positions.
Long-Term Trend : The script makes sure the market is in a strong uptrend by checking if the fast and medium-speed moving averages are going up, and if the price is above a long-term moving average.
Momentum : The MACD is used to make sure the price's upward momentum is getting stronger, not weaker.
Oscillator : It also uses the RSI to check if the market has gone up too much, too fast, which could mean it's about to turn around.
How to Use the Script
You can customize this strategy to fit your trading style and how much risk you're comfortable with. The inputs are grouped into logical sections for easy adjustment.
News & Policy Analysis : You can play with the Policy Event thresholds to make the script more or less sensitive to market shocks. And you can always use the Manual News Sentiment to take over when you're watching a specific news event.
Technical Analysis : Feel free to change the settings for things like the moving averages, RSI, and MACD to match what you like to trade and on what timeframe.
Investor Tool - Z ScoreThe Investor Tool is intended as a tool for long term investors, indicating periods where prices are likely approaching cyclical tops or bottoms. The tool uses two simple moving averages of price as the basis for under/overvalued conditions: the 2-year MA (green) and a 5x multiple of the 2-year MA (red).
Price trading below the 2-year MA has historically generated outsized returns, and signalled bear cycle lows.
Price trading above the 2-year MA x5 has been historically signalled bull cycle tops and a zone where investors de-risk.
Just like the Glassnode one, but here on TV and with StDev bands
Now with Z-SCORE calculation:
The Z-Score is calculated to be -3 Z at the bottom bands and 3 Z at the top bands
mean = (upper_sma + bottom_sma) / 2
bands_range = upper_sma - bottom_sma
stdDev = bands_range != 0 ? bands_range / 6 : 0
zScore = stdDev != 0 ? (close - mean) / stdDev : 0
Created for TRW
Multi-Timeframe SFP + SMTImportant: Please Read First
This indicator is not a "one size fits all" solution. It is a professional and complex tool that requires you to learn how to use it, in addition to backtesting different settings to discover what works best for your specific trading style and the assets you trade. The default settings provided are my personal preferences for trading higher-timeframe setups, but you are encouraged to experiment and find your own optimal configuration.
Please note that while this initial version is solid, it may still contain small errors or bugs. I will be actively working on improving the indicator over time. Also, be aware that the script is not written for maximum efficiency and may be resource-intensive, but this should not pose a problem for most users.
The source code for this indicator is open. If you truly want to understand precisely how all the logic works, you can copy and paste the code into an AI assistant like Gemini or ChatGPT and ask it to explain any part of the script to you.
Author's Preferred Settings (Guideline)
As a starting point, here are the settings I personally use for my trading:
SFP Timeframe: 4-Hour (Strength: 5-5)
Max Lookback: 35 Bars
Raid Expiration: 1 Bar
SFP Lines Limit: 1
SMT Timeframe 1: 30-Minute (Strength: 2-2) with 3-Minute LTF Detection.
SMT Timeframe 2: 15-Minute (Strength: 3-3) with 3-Minute LTF Detection.
SMT Timeframe 3: 1-Hour (Strength: 1-1) with 3-Minute LTF Detection.
SMT Timeframe 4: 15-Minute (Strength: 1-1) with 3-Minute LTF Detection.
Multi-Timeframe SMT: An Overview
This indicator is a powerful tool designed to identify high-probability trading setups by combining two key institutional concepts: Swing Failure Patterns (SFP) on a higher timeframe and Smart Money Technique (SMT) divergences on a lower timeframe. A key feature is the ability to configure and run up to four independent SMT analyses simultaneously, allowing you to monitor for divergences across multiple timeframes (e.g., 15m, 1H, 4H) from a single indicator.
Its primary purpose is to generate automated signals through TradingView's alert system. By setting up alerts, the script runs server-side, monitoring the market for you. When a setup presents itself, it will send a push notification to your device, allowing you to personally evaluate the trade without being tied to your screen.
The Strategy: HTF Liquidity Sweeps into LTF SMT
The core strategy is built on a classic institutional trading model:
Wait for a liquidity sweep on a significant high timeframe (e.g., 4-hour, Daily).
Once liquidity is taken, look for a confirmation of a shift in market structure on a lower timeframe.
This indicator uses an SMT divergence as that confirmation signal, indicating that smart money may be stepping in to reverse the price.
How It Works: The Two-Step Process
The indicator's logic follows a precise two-step process to generate a signal:
Step 1: The Swing Failure Pattern (SFP)
First, the indicator identifies a high-timeframe liquidity sweep. This is configured in the "Swing Failure Pattern (SFP) Timeframe" settings.
It looks for a candle that wicks above a previous high (or below a previous low) but then closes back within the range of that pivot. This action is known as a "raid" or a "swing failure," suggesting the move failed to find genuine momentum.
Step 2: The SMT Divergence
The moment a valid SFP is confirmed, the indicator's multiple SMT engines activate.
Each engine begins monitoring the specific SMT timeframe you have configured (e.g., "SMT Timeframe 1," "SMT Timeframe 2," etc.) for a Smart Money Technique (SMT) divergence.
An SMT divergence occurs when two closely correlated assets fail to move in sync. For example, after a raid on a high, Asset A makes a new high, but Asset B fails to do so. This disagreement suggests weakness and a potential reversal.
When the script finds this divergence, it plots the SMT line and triggers an alert.
The Power of Alerts
The true strength of this indicator lies in its alert capabilities. You can create alerts for both unconfirmed and confirmed SMTs.
Enable Alerts LTF Detection: These alerts trigger when an unconfirmed, potential SMT is spotted on the lower "LTF Detection" timeframe. While not yet confirmed, these early alerts can notify you of a potential move before it fully happens, allowing you to be ahead of the curve and find the best possible trade entries.
Enable Alerts Confirmed SMT: These alerts trigger only when a permanent, confirmed SMT line is plotted on your chosen SMT timeframe. These signals are more reliable but occur later than the early detection alerts.
Key Concepts Explained
What is Pivot Strength?
Pivot Strength determines how significant a high or low needs to be to qualify as a valid structural point. A setting of 5-5, for example, means that for a candle's high to be considered a valid pivot high, its high must be higher than the highs of the 5 candles to its left and the 5 candles to its right.
Higher Strength (e.g., 5-5, 8-8): Creates fewer, but more significant, pivots. This is ideal for identifying major structural highs and lows on higher timeframes.
Lower Strength (e.g., 2-2, 3-3): Creates more pivots, making it suitable for identifying the smaller shifts in momentum on lower timeframes.
Raid Expiration & Validity
An SFP signal is not valid forever. The "Raid Expiration" setting determines how many SFP timeframe bars can pass after a raid before that signal is considered "stale" and can no longer be used to validate an SMT. This ensures your SMT divergences are always in response to recent liquidity sweeps.
Why You Must Be on the Right Chart Timeframe to See SMT Lines
Pine Script™ has a fundamental rule: an indicator running on a chart can only "see" the bars of that chart's timeframe or higher.
When the SMT logic is set to the 15-minute timeframe, it calculates its pivots based on 15-minute data. To accurately plot lines connecting these pivots, you must be on a 15-minute chart or lower (e.g., 5-minute, 1-minute).
If you are on a higher timeframe chart, like the 1-hour, the 15-minute bars do not exist on that chart, so the indicator has no bars to draw the lines on.
This is precisely why the alert system is so powerful. You can set your alert to run on the 15-minute timeframe, and TradingView's servers will monitor that timeframe for you, sending a notification regardless of what chart you are currently viewing.
MSTY-WNTR Rebalancing SignalMSTY-WNTR Rebalancing Signal
## Overview
The **MSTY-WNTR Rebalancing Signal** is a custom TradingView indicator designed to help investors dynamically allocate between two YieldMax ETFs: **MSTY** (YieldMax MSTR Option Income Strategy ETF) and **WNTR** (YieldMax Short MSTR Option Income Strategy ETF). These ETFs are tied to MicroStrategy (MSTR) stock, which is heavily influenced by Bitcoin's price due to MSTR's significant Bitcoin holdings.
MSTY benefits from upward movements in MSTR (and thus Bitcoin) through a covered call strategy that generates income but caps upside potential. WNTR, on the other hand, provides inverse exposure, profiting from MSTR declines but losing in rallies. This indicator uses Bitcoin's momentum and MSTR's relative strength to signal when to hold MSTY (bullish phases), WNTR (bearish phases), or stay neutral, aiming to optimize returns by switching allocations at key turning points.
Inspired by strategies discussed in crypto communities (e.g., X posts analyzing MSTR-linked ETFs), this indicator promotes an active rebalancing approach over a "set and forget" buy-and-hold strategy. In simulated backtests over the past 12 months (as of August 4, 2025), the optimized version has shown potential to outperform holding 100% MSTY or 100% WNTR alone, with an illustrative APY of ~125% vs. ~6% for MSTY and ~-15% for WNTR in one scenario.
**Important Disclaimer**: This is not financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always consult a financial advisor. Trading involves risk, and you could lose money. The indicator is for educational and informational purposes only.
## Key Features
- **Momentum-Based Signals**: Uses a Simple Moving Average (SMA) on Bitcoin's price to detect bullish (price > SMA) or bearish (price < SMA) trends.
- **RSI Confirmation**: Incorporates MSTR's Relative Strength Index (RSI) to filter signals, avoiding overbought conditions for MSTY and oversold for WNTR.
- **Visual Cues**:
- Green upward triangle for "Hold MSTY".
- Red downward triangle for "Hold WNTR".
- Yellow cross for "Switch" signals.
- Background color: Green for MSTY, red for WNTR.
- **Information Panel**: A table in the top-right corner displays real-time data: BTC Price, SMA value, MSTR RSI, and current Allocation (MSTY, WNTR, or Neutral).
- **Alerts**: Configurable alerts for holding MSTY, holding WNTR, or switching.
- **Optimized Parameters**: Defaults are tuned (SMA: 10 days, RSI: 15 periods, Overbought: 80, Oversold: 20) based on simulations to reduce whipsaws and capture trends effectively.
## How It Works
The indicator's logic is straightforward yet effective for volatile assets like Bitcoin and MSTR:
1. **Primary Trigger (Bitcoin Momentum)**:
- Calculate the SMA of Bitcoin's closing price (default: 10-day).
- Bullish: Current BTC price > SMA → Potential MSTY hold.
- Bearish: Current BTC price < SMA → Potential WNTR hold.
2. **Secondary Filter (MSTR RSI Confirmation)**:
- Compute RSI on MSTR stock (default: 15-period).
- For bullish signals: If RSI > Overbought (80), signal Neutral (avoid overextended rallies).
- For bearish signals: If RSI < Oversold (20), signal Neutral (avoid capitulation bottoms).
3. **Allocation Rules**:
- Hold 100% MSTY if bullish and not overbought.
- Hold 100% WNTR if bearish and not oversold.
- Neutral otherwise (e.g., during choppy or extreme markets) – consider holding cash or avoiding trades.
4. **Rebalancing**:
- Switch signals trigger when the hold changes (e.g., from MSTY to WNTR).
- Recommended frequency: Weekly reviews or on 5% BTC moves to minimize trading costs (aim for 4-6 trades/year).
This approach leverages Bitcoin's influence on MSTR while mitigating the risks of MSTY's covered call drag during downtrends and WNTR's losses in uptrends.
## Setup and Usage
1. **Chart Requirements**:
- Apply this indicator to a Bitcoin chart (e.g., BTCUSD on Binance or Coinbase, daily timeframe recommended).
- Ensure MSTR stock data is accessible (TradingView supports it natively).
2. **Adding to TradingView**:
- Open the Pine Editor.
- Paste the script code.
- Save and add to your chart.
- Customize inputs if needed (e.g., adjust SMA/RSI lengths for different timeframes).
3. **Interpretation**:
- **Green Background/Triangle**: Allocate 100% to MSTY – Bitcoin is in an uptrend, MSTR not overbought.
- **Red Background/Triangle**: Allocate 100% to WNTR – Bitcoin in downtrend, MSTR not oversold.
- **Yellow Switch Cross**: Rebalance your portfolio immediately.
- **Neutral (No Signal)**: Panel shows "Neutral" – Hold cash or previous position; reassess weekly.
- Monitor the panel for key metrics to validate signals manually.
4. **Backtesting and Strategy Integration**:
- Convert to a strategy script by changing `indicator()` to `strategy()` and adding entry/exit logic for automated testing.
- In simulations (e.g., using Python or TradingView's backtester), it has outperformed buy-and-hold in volatile markets by ~100-200% relative APY, but results vary.
- Factor in fees: ETF expense ratios (~0.99%), trading commissions (~$0.40/trade), and slippage.
5. **Risk Management**:
- Use with a diversified portfolio; never allocate more than you can afford to lose.
- Add stop-losses (e.g., 10% trailing) to protect against extreme moves.
- Rebalance sparingly to avoid over-trading in sideways markets.
- Dividends: Reinvest MSTY/WNTR payouts into the current hold for compounding.
## Performance Insights (Simulated as of August 4, 2025)
Based on synthetic backtests modeling the last 12 months:
- **Optimized Strategy APY**: ~125% (by timing switches effectively).
- **Hold 100% MSTY APY**: ~6% (gains from BTC rallies offset by downtrends).
- **Hold 100% WNTR APY**: ~-15% (losses in bull phases outweigh bear gains).
In one scenario with stronger volatility, the strategy achieved ~4533% APY vs. 10% for MSTY and -34% for WNTR, highlighting its potential in dynamic markets. However, these are illustrative; real results depend on actual BTC/MSTR movements. Test thoroughly on historical data.
## Limitations and Considerations
- **Data Dependency**: Relies on accurate BTC and MSTR data; delays or gaps can affect signals.
- **Market Risks**: Bitcoin's volatility can lead to false signals (whipsaws); the RSI filter helps but isn't perfect.
- **No Guarantees**: This indicator doesn't predict the future. MSTR's correlation to BTC may change (e.g., due to regulatory events).
- **Not for All Users**: Best for intermediate/advanced traders familiar with ETFs and crypto. Beginners should paper trade first.
- **Updates**: As of August 4, 2025, this is version 1.0. Future updates may include volume filters or EMA options.
If you find this indicator useful, consider leaving a like or comment on TradingView. Feedback welcome for improvements!
Bollinger Bands SMA 20_2 StrategyMean reversion strategy using Bollinger Bands (20-period SMA with 2.0 standard deviation bands).
Trade Triggers:
🟢 BUY SIGNAL:
When: Price crosses above the lower Bollinger Band
Logic: Price has hit oversold territory and is bouncing back
Action: Places a long position with stop at the lower band
🔴 SELL SIGNAL:
When: Price crosses below the upper Bollinger Band
Logic: Price has hit overbought territory and is pulling back
Action: Places a short position with stop at the upper band
Hunting Bollinger Bands for scalping📌 Bollinger Band Reversal BUY/SELL Indicator
Name: Hunting Bollinger Bands for scalping
Purpose: Displays reversal signals for short-term scalping in range-bound markets.
Target Users: Scalpers and day traders, especially for trading Gold (XAU/USD).
Recommended Target: Works well for scalping approximately $3 price movements on Gold.
Core Logic:
Detects excessive price deviation using Bollinger Bands (±2σ).
Filters out excessive signals with a bar interval limiter.
Displays clear and simple BUY/SELL labels for entry timing.
📌 Signal Conditions
BUY
Price closes below the Lower Bollinger Band.
At least the specified number of bars has passed since the previous signal.
Displays a “BUY” label below the bar.
SELL
Price closes above the Upper Bollinger Band.
At least the specified number of bars has passed since the previous signal.
Displays a “SELL” label above the bar.
📌 Parameters
Parameter Description Default
Bollinger Band Length (bbLength) Period for Bollinger Band calculation 20
Standard Deviation (bbStdDev) Standard deviation multiplier for band width 2.0
Signal Interval (barLimit) Minimum bar interval to avoid repeated signals 10
📌 How to Use
Add the indicator to your chart; Bollinger Bands and BUY/SELL labels will appear.
When a signal appears, confirm price reaction and enter a scalp trade (around $3 for Gold is recommended).
Adjust the “Signal Interval (barLimit)” to control signal frequency.
Avoid using it during high-impact news events or strong trending markets.
📌 Best Market Conditions
Range-bound markets
Scalping small price movements (~$3)
Low-volatility sessions (e.g. Asian session for Gold)
📌 Notes
May generate frequent signals during strong trends, leading to potential losses.
Can be combined with other indicators (e.g. 200 MA, RSI, VWAP) for higher accuracy.
Signals are for reference only and should not be used as the sole trading decision factor.
📌 ボリンジャーバンド逆張りBUY/SELL インジケーター解説
名前：Hunting Bollinger Bands for scalping
目的：レンジ相場での短期的な反発を狙った逆張りシグナルを表示
対象ユーザー：スキャルピングやデイトレードで、特にゴールド(XAU/USD)での小幅な値動きを狙うトレーダー
推奨利幅：ゴールドでおよそ 3ドル前後 を目安にスキャルピングを行うと有効
メインロジック：
ボリンジャーバンド（±2σ）で過剰な価格乖離を検出
バー間隔フィルターで過剰シグナルを制御
BUY/SELLラベルで視覚的にシンプルなエントリーポイントを表示
📌 シグナル条件
BUY（買いシグナル）
現在価格が ボリンジャーバンド下限（Lower Band）を下回った時
前回シグナルから指定したバー数以上経過
この条件を満たした場合、ローソク足下に「BUY」ラベルを表示します。
SELL（売りシグナル）
現在価格が ボリンジャーバンド上限（Upper Band）を上回った時
前回シグナルから指定したバー数以上経過
この条件を満たした場合、ローソク足上に「SELL」ラベルを表示します。
📌 パラメータ
項目 説明 初期値
ボリンジャーバンド期間 (bbLength) ボリンジャーバンド計算の期間 20
標準偏差 (bbStdDev) バンド幅を決める標準偏差 2.0
シグナル間隔 (barLimit) シグナルの連続表示を防止する最小バー間隔 10
📌 使い方
インジケーターをチャートに追加すると、ボリンジャーバンドとBUY/SELLラベルが表示されます
シグナルが出たら、反発確認後にスキャルピングエントリー（ゴールドなら約3ドルを目安に）
「シグナル間隔（barLimit）」を調整して、シグナルの過剰表示を防ぐ
経済指標発表や強いトレンド発生時は使用を控える
📌 このインジケーターが向いている相場
レンジ相場
小さな値幅（約3ドル前後）を狙うスキャルピング
トレンドが弱い横ばいの時間帯（例：アジア時間のゴールドなど）
📌 注意点
強いトレンド相場では、逆張りシグナルが連続的に発生し、損切りが増える可能性あり
200MAやRSI、VWAPなど他の指標と組み合わせることで精度を高められる
シグナルは参考用であり、単独での売買判断は推奨されない
Buy/Sell Demand Pressure SMAThis indicator shows when competing buying and selling pressure has changed.
When bullish buying offsets bearish transaction volume, the indicator turns green. When bearish selling pressure offsets bullish buying volume the indicator is red.
Can be used as a normal SMA or to confirm buy/sell signals of other indicators.
Works best at the start of trades...and not exits but if set properly, it is a good indicator of when a trend has reversed.
~ jb tuttle
ATR Plots + OverlayATR Plots + Overlay
This tool calculates and displays Average True Range (ATR)-based levels on your chart for any selected timeframe, giving traders a quick visual reference for expected price movement relative to the most recent bar’s open price. It plots guide levels above and below that open and shows how much of the typical ATR-based range has already been covered—all in one interactive table and on-chart overlay.
What It Does
ATR Calculation:
Uses true range data over a user-defined period (default 14), smoothed via RMA, SMA, EMA, or WMA, on the selected timeframe (e.g., 1h, 4h, daily) to calculate the ATR value.
Projected Levels:
Plots four reference levels relative to the open price of the most recent bar on the chosen timeframe:
+100% ATR: Open + ATR
+50% ATR: Open + 50% of ATR
−50% ATR: Open − 50% of ATR
−100% ATR: Open − ATR
Coverage %:
Tracks high and low prices for the current session on the selected timeframe and calculates what percentage of the ATR has already been covered:
Coverage % = (High − Low) ÷ ATR × 100
Interactive Table:
Shows the ATR value and current coverage percentage in a customizable table overlay. Position, color scheme, borders, transparency, and an optional empty top row are all adjustable via settings.
Customization Options
Table Settings:
Position the table (top/bottom × left/right).
Customize background color, text color, border color, and thickness.
Optionally add an empty top row for spacing.
Line Settings:
Choose color, line style (solid/dotted/dashed), and width.
Lines automatically update with each new bar on the selected timeframe, anchored to that bar’s open price.
General Inputs:
ATR length (number of bars).
Smoothing method (RMA, SMA, EMA, WMA).
Timeframe selection for ATR calculations (e.g., 15m, 1h, Daily).
How to Use It for Trading
Measure Volatility: Quickly gauge the expected price movement based on ATR for any timeframe.
Identify Overextension: Use the coverage % to see how much of the expected ATR range is already consumed.
Plan Entries & Exits: Align trade targets and stops with ATR levels for more objective planning.
Visual Reference: Horizontal guide lines and table update automatically as new bars form, keeping information clear and actionable.
Ideal For
Intraday traders using ATR levels to frame trades.
Swing traders wanting ATR-based reference points for larger timeframes.
Anyone seeking a volatility-based framework for planning stops, targets, or identifying overextended conditions.
BTC vs MSTR PerformanceBTC vs MSTR Performance - BULL
• Green: MSTR has outperformed BTC over the selected time period.
• Red: BTC has outperformed MSTR during the same time period.
• Horizontal line at 0: Separates positive from negative outperformance.
IFVG ExtendedThis indicator identifies and visualizes "Imbalance Fair Value Gaps" (IFVGs) on a price chart. It highlights these gaps, tracks their evolution, and signals when they are "filled" or "invalidated" by price action. The script is quite advanced, using custom types, arrays, and dynamic drawing.
1. Types and Variables
Custom Types:
lab: Stores label information (x, y, direction).
fvg: Stores Fair Value Gap data, including its boundaries, direction, state, labels, and other properties.
Arrays:
Four arrays track bullish and bearish FVGs, and their "invalidated" (filled) versions.
Signals:
Boolean variables to store if a bullish or bearish signal is triggered.
2. User Inputs and Parameters
Display Settings:
How many recent FVGs to show, signal preference (close or wick), ATR multiplier for gap size filtering, and colors for bullish/bearish/midline.
3. Chart Data
Price Data:
Open, high, low, close, and ATR (Average True Range) are stored for use in calculations.
4. Functions
label_maker:
Draws an up or down arrow label at a given point, colored for bullish or bearish.
fvg_manage:
Checks if any FVGs in the array have been "invalidated" (i.e., price has crossed their boundary). If so, moves them to the invalidated array.
inv_manage:
Manages invalidated FVGs, checking if a signal should be fired (i.e., price has reacted to the gap). Also removes old FVGs.
send_it:
Draws the FVGs and their labels on the chart, using boxes and lines for visualization.
5. Main Logic and Visualization
FVG Detection:
On each bar, checks for new bullish or bearish FVGs based on price action and ATR filter.
Adds new FVGs to the appropriate array.
FVG Management:
Updates the arrays, moves invalidated FVGs, and checks for signals.
Drawing:
On the last bar, clears all previous drawings and redraws the current FVGs and their labels.
6. Alerts
Alert Conditions:
Sets up alerts for when a bullish or bearish IFVG signal is triggered, so users can be notified.
Summary
In short:
This script automatically finds and tracks "Imbalance Fair Value Gaps" on your chart, highlights them, and alerts you when price interacts with them in a significant way. It uses advanced Pine Script features to manage and visualize these zones dynamically, helping traders spot potential reversal or continuation points based on gap theory
Twin Range Filter – Buy/Sell SignalsThe Twin Range Filter is a trend-following indicator that combines two adaptive volatility filters to identify potential market reversals and trend continuations. It uses two configurable smoothing periods (fast and slow) to calculate a dynamic range around price, filtering out market noise and highlighting meaningful shifts in direction.
This indicator plots BUY and SELL signals based on price action in relation to the range filter, as well as internal trend conditions.
✅ How It Works:
Long Signal (BUY) is triggered when:
Price is above the filtered range (showing strength), and
Short-term upward momentum is confirmed.
Short Signal (SELL) is triggered when:
Price is below the filtered range (showing weakness), and
Short-term downward momentum is confirmed.
The signals are highlighted using green "Long" and red "Short" labels on the chart.
Background colors reinforce the current directional bias.
🔔 Alerts:
Long Signal – A new BUY condition has been detected.
Short Signal – A new SELL condition has been detected.
📌 Use Cases:
Entry timing for swing or intraday trades
Trend confirmation filter
Signal generator in automated strategies (when paired with a strategy script)
Two colored Up/Down Volume Bars with volume delta plotsThis shows Volume Up/Down via 2 colored volume bars !
The delta is in bar plot is the difference between 2 colors.
I found histogram with +ve and -ve values not visually appealing to me. So had to do this method.
Note: Currently TV does not have native U/D function call and has to done via imported v8 library.
The method of up down remain unchanged, and is as it is in the library.
Method.
The 2 colors in colume bars show which side has more pressure. The top portion is the dominant force and the bottom color is the weaker force in that bar.
Line chars are also available via toggle.
Cumulative line chart shows the pressure building over inputted number of days. When the line is facing down, the pressure is easing down and when the line is facing up the pressure is building up. When the lines intersect, that is a trend change direction.
2 line charts are available, cumulative line plot and smoothened line plot.
Comments suggestions are welcome.
Price Exhaustion Envelope [BackQuant]Price Exhaustion Envelope
Visual preview of the bands:
What it is
The Price Exhaustion Envelope (PEE) is a multi‑factor overextension detector wrapped inside a dynamic envelope framework. It measures how “tired” a move is by blending price stretch, volume surges, momentum and acceleration, plus optional RSI divergence. The result is a composite exhaustion score that drives both on‑chart signals and the adaptive width of three optional envelope bands around a smoothed baseline. When the score spikes above or below your chosen threshold, the script can flag exhaustion, paint candles, tint the background and fire alerts.
How it works under the hood
Exhaustion score
Price component: distance of close from its mean in standard deviation units.
Volume component: normalized volume pressure that highlights unusual participation.
Momentum component: rate of change and acceleration of price, scaled by their own volatility.
RSI divergence (optional): bullish and bearish divergences gently push the score lower or higher.
Mode control: choose Price, Volume, Momentum or Composite. Composite averages the main pieces for a balanced view.
Energy scale (0 to 100)
The composite score is pushed through a logistic transform to create an “energy” value. High energy (above 70 to 80) signals a move that may be running hot, while very low energy (below 20 to 30) points to exhaustion on the downside.
Envelope engine
Baseline: EMA of price over the main lookback length.
Width: base width is standard deviation times a multiplier.
Type selector:
• Static keeps the width fixed.
• Dynamic expands width in proportion to the absolute exhaustion score.
• Adaptive links width to the energy reading so bands breathe with market “heat.”
Smoothing: a short EMA on the width reduces jitter and keeps bands pleasant to trade around.
Band architecture
You can toggle up to three symmetric bands on each side of the baseline. They default to 1.0, 1.6 and 2.2 multiples of the smoothed width. Soft transparent fills create a layered thermograph of extension. The outermost band often maps to true blow‑off extremes.
On‑chart elements
Baseline line that flips color in real time depending on where price sits.
Up to three upper and lower bands with progressive opacity.
Triangle markers at fresh exhaustion triggers.
Tiny warning glyphs at extreme upper or lower breaches.
Optional bar coloring to visually tag exhausted candles.
Background halo when energy > 80 or < 20 for instant context.
A compact info table showing State, Score, Energy, Momentum score and where price sits inside the envelope (percent).
How to use it in trading
Mean reversion plays
When price pierces the outer band and an exhaustion marker prints, look for reversal candles or lower‑timeframe confirmation to fade the move back toward the baseline.
For conservative entries, wait for the composite score to roll back under the threshold or for energy to drop from extreme to neutral.
Set stops just beyond the extreme levels (use extreme_upper and extreme_lower as natural invalidation points). Targets can be the baseline or the opposite inner band.
Trend continuation with smart pullbacks
In strong trends, the first tag of Band 1 or Band 2 against the dominant direction often offers low‑risk continuation entries. Use energy readings: if energy is low on a pullback during an uptrend, a bounce is more likely.
Combine with RSI divergence: hidden bullish divergence near a lower band in an uptrend can be a powerful confirmation.
Breakout filtering
A breakout that occurs while the composite score is still moderate (not exhausted) has a higher chance of follow‑through. Skip signals when energy is already above 80 and price is punching the outer band, as the move may be late.
Watch env_position (Envelope %) in the table. Breakouts near 40 to 60 percent of the envelope are “healthy,” while those at 95 percent are stretched.
Scaling out and risk control
Use exhaustion alerts to trim positions into strength or weakness.
Trail stops just outside Band 2 or Band 3 to stay in trends while letting the envelope expand in volatile phases.
Multi‑timeframe confluence
Run the script on a higher timeframe to locate exhaustion context, then drill down to a lower timeframe for entries.
Opposite signals across timeframes (daily exhaustion vs. 5‑minute breakout) warn you to reduce size or tighten management.
Key inputs to experiment with
Lookback Period: larger values smooth the score and envelope, ideal for swing trading. Shorter values make it reactive for scalps.
Exhaustion Threshold: raise above 2.0 in choppy assets to cut noise, drop to 1.5 for smooth FX pairs.
Envelope Type: Dynamic is great for crypto spikes, Adaptive shines in stocks where volume and volatility wave together.
RSI Divergence: turn off if you prefer a pure price/volume model or if divergence floods the score in your asset.
Alert set included
Fresh upper exhaustion
Fresh lower exhaustion
Extreme upper breach
Extreme lower breach
RSI bearish divergence
RSI bullish divergence
Hook these to TradingView notifications so you get pinged the moment a move hits exhaustion.
Best practices
Always pair exhaustion signals with structure. Support and resistance, liquidity pools and session opens matter.
Avoid blindly shorting every upper signal in a roaring bull market. Let the envelope type help you filter.
Use the table to sanity‑check: a very high score but mid‑range env_position means the band may still be wide enough to absorb more movement.
Backtest threshold combinations on your instrument. Different tickers carry different volatility fingerprints.
Final note
Price Exhaustion Envelope is a flexible framework, not a turnkey system. It excels as a context layer that tells you when the crowd is pressing too hard or when a move still has fuel. Combine it with sound execution tactics, risk limits and market awareness. Trade safe and let the envelope breathe with the market.
Hidden Liquidity Shift DetectorPurpose
The Hidden Liquidity Shift Detector identifies candles that indicate potential hidden accumulation or distribution activity based on volume and price action behavior. These setups often represent institutional absorption of liquidity ahead of larger moves.
How It Works
The script detects candles with the following characteristics:
Small real body relative to the total candle range
A strong wick (upper or lower) indicating rejection
Volume significantly higher than the recent average
It flags:
Hidden Selling (Distribution) when a bearish candle has a long upper wick and high volume
Hidden Buying (Accumulation) when a bullish candle has a long lower wick and high volume
These candles are often missed by traditional indicators but may precede significant reversals or breakouts.
Features
Automatic detection of absorption-style candles
Volume spike filtering based on configurable multiplier
Wick and body ratio thresholds to fine-tune signal quality
Non-intrusive signal markers (colored circles)
Real-time alerts for hidden buying/selling signals
Usage Tips
Use on 15m to 4H charts for intraday detection, or Daily for swing setups
Combine with support/resistance or volume profile zones for higher conviction
Clusters of signals in the same area increase reversal probability
Can be used alongside Wyckoff-style logic or smart money concepts
