Rainbow Fibonacci Momentum - SuperTrend🌈 "Rainbow Fibonacci Momentum - SuperTrend" Indicator 🌈
IMPORTANT: as this is a complex and elaborate TREND ANALYSIS on the graph, ALL INDICATORS REPAINT.
Experience the brilliance of "Rainbow Fibonacci Momentum - SuperTrend" for your technical analysis on TradingView! This versatile indicator allows you to visualize various types of Moving Averages, including Simple Moving Averages (SMA), Exponential Moving Averages (EMA), Weighted Moving Averages (WMA), Hull Moving Averages (HMA), and Volume Weighted Moving Averages (VWMA).
Each MA displayed in a unique color to create a stunning rainbow effect. This makes it easier for you to identify trends and potential trading opportunities.
Key Features:
📊 Multiple Moving Average Types - Choose from a range of moving average types to suit your analysis.
🎨 Stunning Color Gradient - Each moving average type is displayed in a unique color, creating a beautiful rainbow effect.
📉 Overlay Compatible - Use it as an overlay on your price chart for clear trend insights.
With the "Rainbow Fibonacci Momentum - SuperTrend" indicator, you'll add a burst of color to your trading routine and gain a deeper understanding of market trends.
HOW IT WORKS
MA Lines:
MA - 5: purple lines
MA - 8: blue lines
MA - 13: green lines
MA - 21: yellow lines
MA - 34: orange lines
MA - 55: red line
Header Color Indicators:
Purple: MA-5 is in uptrend on the chart
Blue: MA-5 and MA-8 are in the uptrend on the chart
Green: MA-5, MA-8 and MA-13 are in the uptrend on the chart
Yellow: MA-5, MA-8, MA-13 and MA-21 are in the uptrend on the chart
Orange: MA-5, MA-8, MA-13, MA-21 and MA-34 are in the uptrend on the chart
Red: MA-5, MA-8, MA-13, MA-21, MA-34 and MA-55 are in the uptrend on the chart
Red + White Arrow: All MAs are correctly aligned in the uptrend on the chart
Footer Color Indicators:
Purple: MA-5 is in downtrend on the chart
Blue: MA-5 and MA-8 are in the downtrend on the chart
Green: MA-5, MA-8 and MA-13 are in the downtrend on the chart
Yellow: MA-5, MA-8, MA-13 and MA-21 are in the downtrend on the chart
Orange: MA-5, MA-8, MA-13, MA-21 and MA-34 are in the downtrend on the chart
Red: MA-5, MA-8, MA-13, MA-21, MA-34 and MA-55 are in the downtrend on the chart
Red + White Arrow: All MAs are correctly aligned in the downtrend on the chart
Background Colors:
Light Red: All MAs are on the rise!
Red: All MAs are align correctly on the rise!
Light Green: All MAs are in freefall!
Green: All MAs are align correctly in freefall!
Tiny Arrows Indicators/Alerts:
Down Arrow: All MAs are in freefall!
Up Arrow: All MAs are on the rise!
Big Arrows Indicators/Alerts:
Down Arrow: All MAs are align correctly in freefall!
Up Arrow: All MAs are align correctly on the rise!
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[blackcat] L1 Visual Volatility IndicatorHey there! Let's get into the details about dynamic rate indicators, how they work, their importance, usage, and benefits in trading.
Dynamic rate indicators are essential in trading as they help traders assess the volatility and risk level of the market, so they can make the right trading strategies and risk management measures.
When it comes to the importance of dynamic rate indicators, they provide critical information about market volatility, which is super important for traders. Traders can use this information to understand the risk level of the market, determine market stability and instability, and adjust trading strategies based on volatility changes.
Now let's talk about the usage of dynamic rate indicators. They have different usage times for different trading strategies and market environments. Generally, when market volatility is low, traders can take advantage of the opportunity to do trend tracking or oscillating trades. When market volatility is high, traders can take a more conservative approach, such as using stop-loss orders or reducing position sizes.
Using dynamic rate indicators can bring several benefits. First, they can help traders evaluate the risk level of the market, so they can develop suitable risk management strategies. Traders can adjust stop-loss and take-profit levels based on changes in volatility to control risk. Second, dynamic rate indicators provide information about market trends and price fluctuations, helping traders make wiser trading decisions. Traders can determine entry and exit points based on the signals of dynamic rate indicators. Lastly, dynamic rate indicators play a significant role in option pricing. Implied volatility helps traders evaluate option prices and market expectations for future volatility, so they can carry out option trades or hedging operations.
In conclusion, dynamic rate indicators are essential for traders as they help assess market volatility and risk levels, develop suitable trading strategies and risk management measures, and increase trading success and profitability. Remember that different indicators are suitable for different types of markets, so it is essential to choose the right one for your specific trading needs.
This indicator is a powerful tool for traders who want to stay ahead of the market and make informed trading decisions. By analyzing trends in volatility, this indicator can provide valuable insights into market sentiment and help traders identify potential trading opportunities.
One of the key advantages of the L1 Visual Volatility Indicator is its ability to adapt to changing market conditions. The channel structure it constructs based on ATR characteristics provides a framework for tracking volatility that can be adjusted to different timeframes and asset classes. This allows traders to customize the indicator to their specific needs and trading style, making it a versatile tool for a wide range of trading strategies.
Another advantage of this indicator is its use of gradient colors to differentiate between Bullish and Bearish volatility. This provides a visual representation of market sentiment that can help traders quickly identify potential trading opportunities and make informed decisions. Additionally, the use of Fibonacci's long-term moving average to define the sideways consolidation area provides a reliable framework for identifying key levels of support and resistance, further enhancing the indicator's usefulness in trading.
In conclusion, the L1 Visual Volatility Indicator is a powerful tool for traders looking to stay ahead of the market and make informed trading decisions. Its ability to adapt to changing market conditions and use of gradient colors to differentiate between Bullish and Bearish volatility make it a versatile and effective tool for a wide range of trading strategies. By incorporating this indicator into their trading arsenal, traders can gain valuable insights into market sentiment and improve their chances of success in the markets.
Previous OHLC Levels [TradeMaster Lite]In trading, the “Previous Open/High/Low/Close” (or previous OHLC) refers to the opening, high, low and closing price of the instrument in the previous period. These prices are typically used in technical analysis to identify trends and patterns and to make trading decisions. Some traders may also use the differences between the opening, high, low and closing prices to make trading decisions. For example, the difference between the closing and opening price (the so-called “true body”) and the high and low price (the so-called “upper shadow” and “lower shadow”) can indicate the strength of a trend, whether the bulls or bears are controlling the market, and can also give an idea of market volatility, and are also used as support and resistance levels.
Previous Open: shows the opening price of the previous period. It's the price at which the market first started trading in that period.
Previous High: represents the highest price reached during the previous period. It can act as a resistance level for the current period.
Previous Low: indicates the lowest price hit during the previous period. It can serve as a support level in the current period.
Previous Close: the last price at which the asset traded during the previous period. It's often considered the most accurate reflection of the market sentiment at the end of that period.
These values provide a summary of the previous trading period's price action, giving you a baseline for comparing current price movements. They can help in understanding the market's direction and identifying potential support and resistance levels. It is important to keep in mind that, like any other technical indicator, Previous OHLC does not give a definitive indication of future market direction and should be used in conjunction with other analytical tools, as well as fundamental analysis and market sentiment. It is also important to have appropriate risk management in place.
👉 General advice
Confirming Signals with other indicators:
As with all technical indicators, it is important to confirm potential signals with other analytical tools, such as support and resistance levels, as well as indicators like RSI, MACD, and volume. This helps increase the probability of a successful trade.
Use proper risk management:
When using this or any other indicator, it is crucial to have proper risk management in place. Consider implementing stop-loss levels and thoughtful position sizing.
Combining with other technical indicators:
The indicator can be effectively used alongside other technical indicators to create a comprehensive trading strategy and provide additional confirmation.
Keep in Mind:
Thorough research and backtesting are essential before making any trading decisions. Furthermore, it's crucial to have a solid understanding of the indicator and its behavior. Additionally, incorporating fundamental analysis and considering market sentiment can be vital factors to take into account in your trading approach.
Limitations:
This is a lagging indicator. Please note that the displayed values are delayed by the chosen timeframe on historical bars and show the values from the previous period on the current bar.
The indicators within the TradeMaster Lite package aim for simplicity and efficiency, while retaining their original purpose and value. Some settings, functions or visuals may be simpler than expected.
⭐ Conclusion
We hold the view that the true path to success is the synergy between the trader and the tool, contrary to the common belief that the tool itself is the sole determinant of profitability. The actual scenario is more nuanced than such an oversimplification. Our aim is to offer useful features that meet the needs of the 21st century and that we actually use.
🛑 Risk Notice:
Everything provided by trademasterindicator – from scripts, tools, and articles to educational materials – is intended solely for educational and informational purposes. Past performance does not assure future returns.
Dynamo
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Overview
Dynamo is built to be the Swiss-knife for price-movement & strength detection, it aims to provide a holistic view of the current price across multiple dimensions. This is achieved by combining 3 very specific indicators(RSI, Stochastic & ADX) into a single view. Each of which serve a different purpose, and collectively provide a simple, yet powerful tool to gauge the true nature of price-action.
Background
Dynamo uses 3 technical analysis tools in conjunction to provide better insights into price movement, they are briefly explained below:
Relative Strength Index(RSI)
RSI is a popular indicator that is often used to measure the velocity of price change & the intensity of directional moves. RSI computes the relative strength of the current price by comparing the security’s bullish strength versus bearish strength for a given period, i.e. by comparing average gain to average loss.
It is a range bound(0-100) variable that generates a bullish reading if average gain is higher, and a bullish reading if average loss is higher. Values over 50 are generally considered bullish & values less than 50 indicate a bearish market. Values over 70 indicate an overbought condition, and values below 30 indicate oversold condition.
Stochastic
Stochastic is an indicator that aims to measure the momentum in the market, by comparing most recent closing price of the security to its price range for a given period. It is based on the assumption that price tends to close near the recent high in an up trend, and it closes near the recent low during a down trend.
It is also range bound(0-100), values over 80 indicate overbought condition and values below 20 indicate oversold condition.
Average Directional Index(ADX)
ADX is an indicator that can quantify trend strength, it is derived from two underlying indices, known as Directional Movement Index(DMI). +DMI represents strength of the up trend, and -DMI represents strength of the down trend, and ADX is the average of the two.
ADX is non-directional or trend-neutral, which means, it does not follow the direction of the price, instead ADX will rise only when there is a strong trend, it does not matter if it’s an up trend or a down trend. Typical ranges of ADX are 25-50 for a strong trend, anything below 25 is considered as no trend or weak trend. ADX can frequently shoot upto higher values, but it generally finds exhaustion levels around the 60-75 range.
About the script
All these indicators are very powerful tools, but just like any other indicator they have their limitations. Stochastic & ADX can generate false signals in volatile markets, meaning price wouldn’t always follow through with what’s being indicated. ADX may even fail to generate a signal in less volatile markets, simply because it is based on moving averages, it tends to react slower to price changes. RSI can also lose it’s effectiveness when markets are trending strong, as it can stay in the overbought or oversold ranges for an extended period of time.
Dynamo aims to provide the trader with a much broader perspective by bringing together these contrasting indicators into a single simplified view. When Stochastic becomes less reliable in highly volatile conditions, one can cross validate their deduction by looking at RSI patterns. When RSI gets stuck in overbought or oversold range, one can refer to ADX to get better picture about the current trend. Similarly, various combinations of rules & setups can be formulated to get a more deterministic view, when working with either of these indicators.
There many possible use cases for a tool like this, and it totally depends on how you want to use it. An obvious option is to use it to trigger signals only after it has been confirmed by two or more indicators, for example, RSI & Stochastic make a great combination for cross-over or cross-under strategies. Some of the other options include trend detection, strength detection, reversals or price rejection points, possible duration of a trend, and all of these can very easily be translated into effective entry and exit points for trades.
How to use it
Dynamo is an easy-to-use tool, just add it to your chart and you’re good to start with your market analysis. Output consists of three overlapping plots, each of which tackle price movement from a slightly different angle.
Stochastic: A momentum indicator that plots the current closing price in relation to the price-range over a given period of time.
Can be used to detect the direction of the price movement, potential reversals, or duration of an up/down move.
Plotted as grey coloured histograms in the background.
Relative Strength Index(RSI): RSI is also a momentum indicator that measures the velocity with which the price changes.
Can be used to detect the speed of the price movement, RSI divergences can be a nice way to detect directional changes.
Plotted as an aqua coloured line.
Average Directional Index(ADX): ADX is an indicator that is used to measure the strength of the current trend.
Can be used to measure how strong the price movement is, both up and down, or to establish long terms trends.
Plotted as an orange coloured line.
Features
Provides a well-rounded view of the market movement by amalgamating some of the best strength indicators, helping traders make better informed decisions with minimal effort.
Simplistic plots that aim to convey clean signals, as a result, reducing clutter on the chart, and hopefully in the trader's head too.
Combines different types of indicators into a single view, which leads to an optimised use of the precious screen real-estate.
Final Note
Dynamo is designed to be minimalistic in functionality and in appearance, as it is being built to be a general purpose tool that is not only beginner friendly, but can also be highly-configurable to meet the needs of pro traders.
Thresholds & default values for the indicators are only suggestions based on industry standards, they may not be an exact match for all markets & conditions. Hence, it is advisable for the user to test & adjust these values according their securities and trading styles.
The chart highlights one of many possible setups using this tool, and it can used to create various types of setups & strategies, but it is also worth noting that the usability & the effectiveness of this tool also depends on the user’s understanding & interpretation of the underlying indicators.
Lastly, this tool is only an indicator and should only be perceived that way. It does not guarantee anything, and the user should do their own research before committing to trades based on any indicator.
Wavetrend in Dynamic Zones with Kumo Implied VolatilityI was asked to do one of those, so here we go...
As always free and open source as it should be. Do not pay for such indicators!
A WaveTrend Indicator or also widely known as "Market Cipher" is an Indicator that is based on Moving Averages, therefore its an "lagging indicator". Lagging indicators are best used in combination with leading indicators. In this script the "leading indicator" component are Daily, Weekly or Monthly Pivots . These Pivots can be used as dynamic Support and Resistance , Stoploss, Take Profit etc.
This indicator combination is best used in larger timeframes. For lower timeframes you might need to change settings to your liking.
The general Wavetrend settings are the same that are used in Market Cipher, Market Liberator and such popular indicators.
What are these circles?
-These are the WaveTrend Divergences. Red for Regular-Bearish. Orange for Hidden-Bearish. Green for Regular-Bullish. Aqua for Hidden-Bullish.
What are these white, orange and aqua triangles?
-These are the WaveTrend Pivots. A Pivot counter was added. Every time a pivot is lower than the previous one, an orange triangle is printed, every time a pivot is higher than the previous one an aqua triangle is printed. That mimics a very common way Wavetrend is being used for trading when using those other paid Wavetrend indicators.
What are these Orange and Aqua Zones?
-These are Dynamic Zones based on the indicator itself, they offer more information than static zones. Of course static lines are also included and can be adjusted.
What are the lines between the waves?
-This is a Kumo Cloud Implied Volatility indicator. It is color coded and can be used to indicate if a major market move/bottom/top happened.
What are those numbers on the right?
-The first number is a Bollinger Band indicator that shows if said Bollinger Band is in a state of Oversold/Overbought, the second number is the actual Bollinger Band Width that indicates if the Bollinger Band squeezes, normally that happens right before the market makes an explosive move.
Please keep in mind that this indicator is a tool and not a strategy, do not blindly trade signals, do your own research first! Use this indicator in conjunction with other indicators to get multiple confirmations.
Ehlers Autocorrelation Periodogram [Loxx]Ehlers Autocorrelation Periodogram contains two versions of Ehlers Autocorrelation Periodogram Algorithm. This indicator is meant to supplement adaptive cycle indicators that myself and others have published on Trading View, will continue to publish on Trading View. These are fast-loading, low-overhead, streamlined, exact replicas of Ehlers' work without any other adjustments or inputs.
Versions:
- 2013, Cycle Analytics for Traders Advanced Technical Trading Concepts by John F. Ehlers
- 2016, TASC September, "Measuring Market Cycles"
Description
The Ehlers Autocorrelation study is a technical indicator used in the calculation of John F. Ehlers’s Autocorrelation Periodogram. Its main purpose is to eliminate noise from the price data, reduce effects of the “spectral dilation” phenomenon, and reveal dominant cycle periods. The spectral dilation has been discussed in several studies by John F. Ehlers; for more information on this, refer to sources in the "Further Reading" section.
As the first step, Autocorrelation uses Mr. Ehlers’s previous installment, Ehlers Roofing Filter, in order to enhance the signal-to-noise ratio and neutralize the spectral dilation. This filter is based on aerospace analog filters and when applied to market data, it attempts to only pass spectral components whose periods are between 10 and 48 bars.
Autocorrelation is then applied to the filtered data: as its name implies, this function correlates the data with itself a certain period back. As with other correlation techniques, the value of +1 would signify the perfect correlation and -1, the perfect anti-correlation.
Using values of Autocorrelation in Thermo Mode may help you reveal the cycle periods within which the data is best correlated (or anti-correlated) with itself. Those periods are displayed in the extreme colors (orange) while areas of intermediate colors mark periods of less useful cycles.
What is an adaptive cycle, and what is the Autocorrelation Periodogram Algorithm?
From his Ehlers' book mentioned above, page 135:
"Adaptive filters can have several different meanings. For example, Perry Kaufman’s adaptive moving average ( KAMA ) and Tushar Chande’s variable index dynamic average ( VIDYA ) adapt to changes in volatility . By definition, these filters are reactive to price changes, and therefore they close the barn door after the horse is gone.The adaptive filters discussed in this chapter are the familiar Stochastic , relative strength index ( RSI ), commodity channel index ( CCI ), and band-pass filter.The key parameter in each case is the look-back period used to calculate the indicator.This look-back period is commonly a fixed value. However, since the measured cycle period is changing, as we have seen in previous chapters, it makes sense to adapt these indicators to the measured cycle period. When tradable market cycles are observed, they tend to persist for a short while.Therefore, by tuning the indicators to the measure cycle period they are optimized for current conditions and can even have predictive characteristics.
The dominant cycle period is measured using the Autocorrelation Periodogram Algorithm. That dominant cycle dynamically sets the look-back period for the indicators. I employ my own streamlined computation for the indicators that provide smoother and easier to interpret outputs than traditional methods. Further, the indicator codes have been modified to remove the effects of spectral dilation.This basically creates a whole new set of indicators for your trading arsenal."
How to use this indicator
The point of the Ehlers Autocorrelation Periodogram Algorithm is to dynamically set a period between a minimum and a maximum period length. While I leave the exact explanation of the mechanic to Dr. Ehlers’s book, for all practical intents and purposes, in my opinion, the punchline of this method is to attempt to remove a massive source of overfitting from trading system creation–namely specifying a look-back period. SMA of 50 days? 100 days? 200 days? Well, theoretically, this algorithm takes that possibility of overfitting out of your hands. Simply, specify an upper and lower bound for your look-back, and it does the rest. In addition, this indicator tells you when its best to use adaptive cycle inputs for your other indicators.
Usage Example 1
Let's say you're using "Adaptive Qualitative Quantitative Estimation (QQE) ". This indicator has the option of adaptive cycle inputs. When the "Ehlers Autocorrelation Periodogram " shows a period of high correlation that adaptive cycle inputs work best during that period.
Usage Example 2
Check where the dominant cycle line lines, grab that output number and inject it into your other standard indicators for the length input.
BUY & SELL PRESSURE XeLMod V2BUY & SELL PRESSURE Oscillator
Ver. 2.0 XelMod
WHAT'S THIS?
This is an UPDATED version of a previous script already posted.
List of changes from previous script:
Separated as Column Histogram just the Regressive (Rate-Of-Change) Force of the indicator which gives a faster response of the trend.
Default period is now set to 81, as better Oscillator swing lagging.
This is an excelent momentum indicator very similar to ADX but in a candle weighting distribution rather than ranges.
For additional reference:
Karthik Marar BUY AND SELL PRESSURE INDICATORS.
Cheers!
Any feedback will be welcome...
@XeL_Arjona
Anchored PVI + NVIAnchored PVI + NVI is a single-pane indicator that allows the Positive Volume Index (PVI) and Negative Volume Index (NVI) to be plotted together using a period-anchored approach. Crucially, the EMAs for each series are included and remain analytically valid under the anchoring process.
PVI and NVI are cumulative, path dependent indicators. Over long histories, their absolute values become arbitrary and often incomparable when plotted side-by-side . This script addresses that limitation by anchoring each indicator to a user-defined period (daily, weekly, monthly, etc.) and plotting their relative change from that baseline rather than their raw values.
The result is a clean, comparable view that preserves each indicator’s internal structure (trends, inflections, divergences, and EMA relationships) while minimizing scale conflicts.
**What Are PVI and NVI? (Quick Explanation)**
PVI and NVI separate price behavior based on changes in participation, not raw volume flow.
- Positive Volume Index (PVI) updates only on bars where volume increases relative to the prior bar. It tracks price movement during expanding participation, often associated with broad market involvement.
- Negative Volume Index (NVI) updates only on bars where volume decreases relative to the prior bar. It tracks price movement during contracting participation, often associated with quieter or more selective activity.
Both indicators accumulate percentage price changes, but only under their respective volume conditions. Rather than asking “Is volume high or low?” , they ask:
"How does price behave when participation expands versus when it contracts?"
More detailed guidance and interpretation can be found further down the publication description for users unfamiliar with the practical uses of PVI and NVI.
**How The Script Works**
At the start of each selected anchor period, the script records the current PVI and NVI values as baselines. All subsequent values within that period are plotted as changes relative to those baselines:
- Percent mode plots the percentage change from the baseline.
- Absolute mode plots the absolute change from the baseline.
This is not normalization or rescaling. The time-based shape of each series is preserved within the anchor window.
The EMAs are calculated on the original, full-history PVI and NVI series, then transformed using the same anchored reference frame. This faithfully preserves relative positioning between each index and its EMA, EMA slope behavior, and EMA crossover timing.
Optional anchor markers and a zero line help visualize resets and behavior relative to the period’s starting point.
**Advantages vs Using PVI and NVI Separately**
- Faster visual assessment: Participation-conditioned price behavior can be evaluated at a glance without mentally reconciling separate scales or panes.
- Potential for Extended Interpretation: A shared baseline introduces a form of relative comparability that does not exist when the indicators are plotted independently.
- Cleaner workflow: One indicator, one pane, and less chart clutter.
**Conventional Interpretation and Guidance**
Anchored PVI and NVI should be interpreted relative to the zero line, their own EMAs, and each other, always within the context of the current anchor period - NOT across periods.
Values above zero indicate net positive price movement since the anchor began under the indicator’s respective volume condition. Values below zero indicate net negative movement. Because PVI and NVI update under different participation regimes, their behavior provides complementary context rather than redundant confirmation.
When PVI is rising, price progress within the period is occurring primarily during higher-participation sessions. This suggests that movement is being supported by expanding activity. Weakness or flattening in PVI indicates that price is losing traction during high-volume conditions.
When NVI is rising, price persistence is occurring during quieter sessions as participation contracts. This often reflects continuation or structural stability that does not rely on broad engagement. Weakness in NVI indicates that price struggles to hold together as activity declines.
Comparing the two provides insight into participation balance.
- Both rising: broad support across participation regimes
- PVI rising while NVI lags: movement concentrated in higher-participation sessions
- NVI rising while PVI lags: price persistence despite reduced participation
Each index is most commonly interpreted relative to its own 255-period EMA. Holding above the EMA suggests strengthening behavior within that participation regime, while sustained movement below the EMA indicates weakening momentum or transition. NVI in particular is often interpreted such that above-EMA behavior is supportive and below-EMA behavior is cautionary.
Divergence between price and PVI or NVI can highlight changes in participation dynamics that may not yet be reflected in price alone. Divergence between PVI and NVI themselves highlights shifts in how price behaves under expanding versus contracting participation.
These relationships are best used as contextual confirmation rather than as standalone trading signals.
**Extended Interpretation (Exploratory)**
This section is exploratory and should not be interpreted as conventional or widely-accepted guidance.
Anchoring PVI and NVI to a shared baseline introduces a form of relative comparability that does not exist when the indicators are plotted independently.
Within a single anchor period, both PVI and NVI are now expressed as relative change from a common reference point. This makes it possible to observe how the two series interact directly in time.
Index Crossovers (PVI vs. NVI)
Crossovers between anchored PVI and anchored NVI may be interpreted as shifts in dominance between participation regimes within the anchor period.
- PVI crossing above NVI suggests that price progress under expanding participation has overtaken progress under contracting participation since the anchor began.
- NVI crossing above PVI suggests that price persistence during quieter participation has become the dominant contributor within the period.
EMA-to-EMA Structure (PVI EMA vs. NVI EMA)
EMA-to-EMA relationships can further highlight smoother, regime-level tendencies in participation balance. When one EMA persistently leads the other after sufficient post-anchor price action has accumulated, it reflects a sustained bias toward that participation regime within the anchor window. Similarly, EMA crossovers that develop after sufficient post-anchor data may imply a transition in participation balance rather than a reset artifact.
Important Context and Limitations of Extended Interpretation
This form of interpretation is only valid within a single anchor period. Because each anchor resets the baseline, no continuity or meaning should be inferred across different periods.
These interactions should be treated as descriptive of participation balance, not as standalone trade signals. Their value lies in clarifying how price movement is being carried within a defined window, not in predicting future direction.
**Combined Practical Use**
Altogether, this indicator allows participation dynamics to be evaluated at three levels:
1) Instantaneous behavior via the anchored PVI and NVI themselves
2) Structural persistence via each index relative to its own EMA
3) Regime balance via the relative positioning of PVI, NVI, and their EMAs
**Warnings!**
- Percent mode can become visually unstable when baseline PVI or NVI values are near zero due to division effects inherent in percent-change calculations.
**Other Similar Indicators**
My Anchored OBV + A/D script applies the same anchored-period framework to other volume-based indicators.
**Credits**
This script is inspired by Multi-Ticker Anchored Candles (MTAC) by @SamRecio . MTAC's anchored-baseline concept and open-source nature provided an important conceptual foundation for adapting the same idea to PVI and NVI.
COT IndexTHE HIDDEN INTELLIGENCE IN FUTURES MARKETS
What if you could see what the smartest players in the futures markets are doing before the crowd catches on? While retail traders chase momentum indicators and moving averages, obsess over Japanese candlestick patterns, and debate whether the RSI should be set to fourteen or twenty-one periods, institutional players leave footprints in the sand through their mandatory reporting to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. These footprints, published weekly in the Commitment of Traders reports, have been hiding in plain sight for decades, available to anyone with an internet connection, yet remarkably few traders understand how to interpret them correctly. The COT Index indicator transforms this raw institutional positioning data into actionable trading signals, bringing Wall Street intelligence to your trading screen without requiring expensive Bloomberg terminals or insider connections.
The uncomfortable truth is this: Most retail traders operate in a binary world. Long or short. Buy or sell. They apply technical analysis to individual positions, constrained by limited capital that forces them to concentrate risk in single directional bets. Meanwhile, institutional traders operate in an entirely different dimension. They manage portfolios dynamically weighted across multiple markets, adjusting exposure based on evolving market conditions, correlation shifts, and risk assessments that retail traders never see. A hedge fund might be simultaneously long gold, short oil, neutral on copper, and overweight agricultural commodities, with position sizes calibrated to volatility and portfolio Greeks. When they increase gold exposure from five percent to eight percent of portfolio allocation, this rebalancing decision reflects sophisticated analysis of opportunity cost, risk parity, and cross-market dynamics that no individual chart pattern can capture.
This portfolio reweighting activity, multiplied across hundreds of institutional participants, manifests in the aggregate positioning data published weekly by the CFTC. The Commitment of Traders report does not show individual trades or strategies. It shows the collective footprint of how actual commercial hedgers and large speculators have allocated their capital across different markets. When mining companies collectively increase forward gold sales to hedge thirty percent more production than last quarter, they are not reacting to a moving average crossover. They are making strategic allocation decisions based on production forecasts, cost structures, and price expectations derived from operational realities invisible to outside observers. This is portfolio management in action, revealed through positioning data rather than price charts.
If you want to understand how institutional capital actually flows, how sophisticated traders genuinely position themselves across market cycles, the COT report provides a rare window into that hidden world. But understand what you are getting into. This is not a tool for scalpers seeking confirmation of the next five-minute move. This is not an oscillator that flashes oversold at market bottoms with convenient precision. COT analysis operates on a timescale measured in weeks and months, revealing positioning shifts that precede major market turns but offer no precision timing. The data arrives three days stale, published only once per week, capturing strategic positioning rather than tactical entries.
If you need instant gratification, if you trade intraday moves, if you demand mechanical signals with ninety percent accuracy, close this document now. COT analysis rewards patience, position sizing discipline, and tolerance for being early. It punishes impatience, overleveraging, and the expectation that any single indicator can substitute for market understanding.
The premise is deceptively simple. Every Tuesday, large traders in futures markets must report their positions to the CFTC. By Friday afternoon, this data becomes public. Academic research spanning three decades has consistently shown that not all market participants are created equal. Some traders consistently profit while others consistently lose. Some anticipate major turning points while others chase trends into exhaustion. Bessembinder and Chan (1992) demonstrated in their seminal study that commercial hedgers, those with actual exposure to the underlying commodity or financial instrument, possess superior forecasting ability compared to speculators. Their research, published in the Journal of Finance, found statistically significant predictive power in commercial positioning, particularly at extreme levels. This finding challenged the efficient market hypothesis and opened the door to a new approach to market analysis based on positioning rather than price alone.
Think about what this means. Every week, the government publishes a report showing you exactly how the most informed market participants are positioned. Not their opinions. Not their predictions. Their actual money at risk. When agricultural producers collectively hold their largest short hedge in five years, they are not making idle speculation. They are locking in prices for crops they will harvest, informed by private knowledge of weather conditions, soil quality, inventory levels, and demand expectations invisible to outside observers. When energy companies aggressively hedge forward production at current prices, they reveal information about expected supply that no analyst report can capture. This is not technical analysis based on past prices. This is not fundamental analysis based on publicly available data. This is behavioral analysis based on how the smartest money is actually positioned, how institutions allocate capital across portfolios, and how those allocation decisions shift as market conditions evolve.
WHY SOME TRADERS KNOW MORE THAN OTHERS
Building on this foundation, Sanders, Boris and Manfredo (2004) conducted extensive research examining the behaviour patterns of different trader categories. Their work, which analyzed over a decade of COT data across multiple commodity markets, revealed a fascinating dynamic that challenges much of what retail traders are taught. Commercial hedgers consistently positioned themselves against market extremes, buying when speculators were most bearish and selling when speculators reached peak bullishness. The contrarian positioning of commercials was not random noise but rather reflected their superior information about supply and demand fundamentals. Meanwhile, large speculators, primarily hedge funds and commodity trading advisors, exhibited strong trend-following behaviour that often amplified market moves beyond fundamental values. Small traders, the retail participants, consistently entered positions late in trends, frequently near turning points, making them reliable contrary indicators.
Wang (2003) extended this research by demonstrating that the predictive power of commercial positioning varies significantly across different commodity sectors. His analysis of agricultural commodities showed particularly strong forecasting ability, with commercial net positions explaining up to fifteen percent of return variance in subsequent weeks. This finding suggests that the informational advantages of hedgers are most pronounced in markets where physical supply and demand fundamentals dominate, as opposed to purely financial markets where information asymmetries are smaller. When a corn farmer hedges six months of expected harvest, that decision incorporates private observations about rainfall patterns, crop health, pest pressure, and local storage capacity that no distant analyst can match. When an oil refinery hedges crude oil purchases and gasoline sales simultaneously, the spread relationships reveal expectations about refining margins that reflect operational realities invisible in public data.
The theoretical mechanism underlying these empirical patterns relates to information asymmetry and different participant motivations. Commercial hedgers engage in futures markets not for speculative profit but to manage business risks. An agricultural producer selling forward six months of expected harvest is not making a bet on price direction but rather locking in revenue to facilitate financial planning and ensure business viability. However, this hedging activity necessarily incorporates private information about expected supply, inventory levels, weather conditions, and demand trends that the hedger observes through their commercial operations (Irwin and Sanders, 2012). When aggregated across many participants, this private information manifests in collective positioning.
Consider a gold mining company deciding how much forward production to hedge. Management must estimate ore grades, recovery rates, production costs, equipment reliability, labor availability, and dozens of other operational variables that determine whether locking in prices at current levels makes business sense. If the industry collectively hedges more aggressively than usual, it suggests either exceptional production expectations or concern about sustaining current price levels or combination of both. Either way, this positioning reveals information unavailable to speculators analyzing price charts and economic data. The hedger sees the physical reality behind the financial abstraction.
Large speculators operate under entirely different incentives and constraints. Commodity Trading Advisors managing billions in assets typically employ systematic, trend-following strategies that respond to price momentum rather than fundamental supply and demand. When crude oil rallies from sixty dollars to seventy dollars per barrel, these systems generate buy signals. As the rally continues to eighty dollars, position sizes increase. The strategy works brilliantly during sustained trends but becomes a liability at reversals. By the time oil reaches ninety dollars, trend-following funds are maximally long, having accumulated positions progressively throughout the rally. At this point, they represent not smart money anticipating further gains but rather crowded money vulnerable to reversal. Sanders, Boris and Manfredo (2004) documented this pattern across multiple energy markets, showing that extreme speculator positioning typically marked late-stage trend exhaustion rather than early-stage trend development.
Small traders, the retail participants who fall below reporting thresholds, display the weakest forecasting ability. Wang (2003) found that small trader positioning exhibited negative correlation with subsequent returns, meaning their aggregate positioning served as a reliable contrary indicator. The explanation combines several factors. Retail traders often lack the capital reserves to weather normal market volatility, leading to premature exits from positions that would eventually prove profitable. They tend to receive information through slower channels, entering trends after mainstream media coverage when institutional participants are preparing to exit. Perhaps most importantly, they trade with emotion, buying into euphoria and selling into panic at precisely the wrong times.
At major turning points, the three groups often position opposite each other with commercials extremely bearish, large speculators extremely bullish, and small traders piling into longs at the last moment. These high-divergence environments frequently precede increased volatility and trend reversals. The insiders with business exposure quietly exit as the momentum traders hit maximum capacity and retail enthusiasm peaks. Within weeks, the reversal begins, and positions unwind in the opposite sequence.
FROM RAW DATA TO ACTIONABLE SIGNALS
The COT Index indicator operationalizes these academic findings into a practical trading tool accessible through TradingView. At its core, the indicator normalizes net positioning data onto a zero to one hundred scale, creating what we call the COT Index. This normalization is critical because absolute position sizes vary dramatically across different futures contracts and over time. A commercial trader holding fifty thousand contracts net long in crude oil might be extremely bullish by historical standards, or it might be quite neutral depending on the context of total market size and historical ranges. Raw position numbers mean nothing without context. The COT Index solves this problem by calculating where current positioning stands relative to its range over a specified lookback period, typically two hundred fifty-two weeks or approximately five years of weekly data.
The mathematical transformation follows the methodology originally popularized by legendary trader Larry Williams, though the underlying concept appears in statistical normalization techniques across many fields. For any given trader category, we calculate the highest and lowest net position values over the lookback period, establishing the historical range for that specific market and trader group. Current positioning is then expressed as a percentage of this range, where zero represents the most bearish positioning ever seen in the lookback window and one hundred represents the most bullish extreme. A reading of fifty indicates positioning exactly in the middle of the historical range, suggesting neither extreme optimism nor pessimism relative to recent history (Williams and Noseworthy, 2009).
This index-based approach allows for meaningful comparison across different markets and time periods, overcoming the scaling problems inherent in analyzing raw position data. A commercial index reading of eighty-five in gold carries the same interpretive meaning as an eighty-five reading in wheat or crude oil, even though the absolute position sizes differ by orders of magnitude. This standardization enables systematic analysis across entire futures portfolios rather than requiring market-specific expertise for each contract.
The lookback period selection involves a fundamental tradeoff between responsiveness and stability. Shorter lookback periods, perhaps one hundred twenty-six weeks or approximately two and a half years, make the index more sensitive to recent positioning changes. However, it also increases noise and produces more false signals. Longer lookback periods, perhaps five hundred weeks or approximately ten years, create smoother readings that filter short-term noise but become slower to recognize regime changes. The indicator settings allow users to adjust this parameter based on their trading timeframe, risk tolerance, and market characteristics.
UNDERSTANDING CFTC DATA STRUCTURES
The indicator supports both Legacy and Disaggregated COT report formats, reflecting the evolution of CFTC reporting standards over decades of market development. Legacy reports categorize market participants into three broad groups: commercial traders (hedgers with underlying business exposure), non-commercial traders (large speculators seeking profit without commercial interest), and non-reportable traders (small speculators below reporting thresholds). Each category brings distinct motivations and information advantages to the market (CFTC, 2020).
The Disaggregated reports, introduced in September 2009 for physical commodity markets, provide finer granularity by splitting participants into five categories (CFTC, 2009). Producer and merchant positions capture those actually producing, processing, or merchandising the physical commodity. Swap dealers represent financial intermediaries facilitating derivative transactions for clients. Managed money includes commodity trading advisors and hedge funds executing systematic or discretionary strategies. Other reportables encompasses diverse participants not fitting the main categories. Small traders remain as the fifth group, representing retail participation.
This enhanced categorization reveals nuances invisible in Legacy reports, particularly distinguishing between different types of institutional capital and their distinct behavioural patterns. The indicator automatically detects which report type is appropriate for each futures contract and adjusts the display accordingly.
Importantly, Disaggregated reports exist only for physical commodity futures. Agricultural commodities like corn, wheat, and soybeans have Disaggregated reports because clear producer, merchant, and swap dealer categories exist. Energy commodities like crude oil and natural gas similarly have well-defined commercial hedger categories. Metals including gold, silver, and copper also receive Disaggregated treatment (CFTC, 2009). However, financial futures such as equity index futures, Treasury bond futures, and currency futures remain available only in Legacy format. The CFTC has indicated no plans to extend Disaggregated reporting to financial futures due to different market structures and participant categories in these instruments (CFTC, 2020).
THE BEHAVIORAL FOUNDATION
Understanding which trader perspective to follow requires appreciation of their distinct trading styles, success rates, and psychological profiles. Commercial hedgers exhibit anticyclical behaviour rooted in their fundamental knowledge and business imperatives. When agricultural producers hedge forward sales during harvest season, they are not speculating on price direction but rather locking in revenue for crops they will harvest. Their business requires converting volatile commodity exposure into predictable cash flows to facilitate planning and ensure survival through difficult periods. Yet their aggregate positioning reveals valuable information because these hedging decisions incorporate private information about supply conditions, inventory levels, weather observations, and demand expectations that hedgers observe through their commercial operations (Bessembinder and Chan, 1992).
Consider a practical example from energy markets. Major oil companies continuously hedge portions of forward production based on price levels, operational costs, and financial planning needs. When crude oil trades at ninety dollars per barrel, they might aggressively hedge the next twelve months of production, locking in prices that provide comfortable profit margins above their extraction costs. This hedging appears as short positioning in COT reports. If oil rallies further to one hundred dollars, they hedge even more aggressively, viewing these prices as exceptional opportunities to secure revenue. Their short positioning grows increasingly extreme. To an outside observer watching only price charts, the rally suggests bullishness. But the commercial positioning reveals that the actual producers of oil find these prices attractive enough to lock in years of sales, suggesting skepticism about sustaining even higher levels. When the eventual reversal occurs and oil declines back to eighty dollars, the commercials who hedged at ninety and one hundred dollars profit while speculators who chased the rally suffer losses.
Large speculators or managed money traders operate under entirely different incentives and constraints. Their systematic, momentum-driven strategies mean they amplify existing trends rather than anticipate reversals. Trend-following systems, the most common approach among large speculators, by definition require confirmation of trend through price momentum before entering positions (Sanders, Boris and Manfredo, 2004). When crude oil rallies from sixty dollars to eighty dollars per barrel over several months, trend-following algorithms generate buy signals based on moving average crossovers, breakouts, and other momentum indicators. As the rally continues, position sizes increase according to the systematic rules.
However, this approach becomes a liability at turning points. By the time oil reaches ninety dollars after a sustained rally, trend-following funds are maximally long, having accumulated positions progressively throughout the move. At this point, their positioning does not predict continued strength. Rather, it often marks late-stage trend exhaustion. The psychological and mechanical explanation is straightforward. Trend followers by definition chase price momentum, entering positions after trends establish rather than anticipating them. Eventually, they become fully invested just as the trend nears completion, leaving no incremental buying power to sustain the rally. When the first signs of reversal appear, systematic stops trigger, creating a cascade of selling that accelerates the downturn.
Small traders consistently display the weakest track record across academic studies. Wang (2003) found that small trader positioning exhibited negative correlation with subsequent returns in his analysis across multiple commodity markets. This result means that whatever small traders collectively do, the opposite typically proves profitable. The explanation for small trader underperformance combines several factors documented in behavioral finance literature. Retail traders often lack the capital reserves to weather normal market volatility, leading to premature exits from positions that would eventually prove profitable. They tend to receive information through slower channels, learning about commodity trends through mainstream media coverage that arrives after institutional participants have already positioned. Perhaps most importantly, retail traders are more susceptible to emotional decision-making, buying into euphoria and selling into panic at precisely the wrong times (Tharp, 2008).
SETTINGS, THRESHOLDS, AND SIGNAL GENERATION
The practical implementation of the COT Index requires understanding several key features and settings that users can adjust to match their trading style, timeframe, and risk tolerance. The lookback period determines the time window for calculating historical ranges. The default setting of two hundred fifty-two bars represents approximately one year on daily charts or five years on weekly charts, balancing responsiveness with stability. Conservative traders seeking only the most extreme, highest-probability signals might extend the lookback to five hundred bars or more. Aggressive traders seeking earlier entry and willing to accept more false positives might reduce it to one hundred twenty-six bars or even less for shorter-term applications.
The bullish and bearish thresholds define signal generation levels. Default settings of eighty and twenty respectively reflect academic research suggesting meaningful information content at these extremes. Readings above eighty indicate positioning in the top quintile of the historical range, representing genuine extremes rather than temporary fluctuations. Conversely, readings below twenty occupy the bottom quintile, indicating unusually bearish positioning (Briese, 2008).
However, traders must recognize that appropriate thresholds vary by market, trader category, and personal risk tolerance. Some futures markets exhibit wider positioning swings than others due to seasonal patterns, volatility characteristics, or participant behavior. Conservative traders seeking high-probability setups with fewer signals might raise thresholds to eighty-five and fifteen. Aggressive traders willing to accept more false positives for earlier entry could lower them to seventy-five and twenty-five.
The key is maintaining meaningful differentiation between bullish, neutral, and bearish zones. The default settings of eighty and twenty create a clear three-zone structure. Readings from zero to twenty represent bearish territory where the selected trader group holds unusually bearish positions. Readings from twenty to eighty represent neutral territory where positioning falls within normal historical ranges. Readings from eighty to one hundred represent bullish territory where the selected trader group holds unusually bullish positions.
The trading perspective selection determines which participant group the indicator follows, fundamentally shaping interpretation and signal meaning. For counter-trend traders seeking reversal opportunities, monitoring commercial positioning makes intuitive sense based on the academic research discussed earlier. When commercials reach extreme bearish readings below twenty, indicating unprecedented short positioning relative to recent history, they are effectively betting against the crowd. Given their informational advantages demonstrated by Bessembinder and Chan (1992), this contrarian stance often precedes major bottoms.
Trend followers might instead monitor large speculator positioning, but with inverted logic compared to commercials. When managed money reaches extreme bullish readings above eighty, the trend may be exhausting rather than accelerating. This seeming paradox reflects their late-cycle participation documented by Sanders, Boris and Manfredo (2004). Sophisticated traders thus use speculator extremes as fade signals, entering positions opposite to speculator consensus.
Small trader monitoring serves primarily as a contrary indicator for all trading styles. Extreme small trader bullishness above seventy-five or eighty typically warns of retail FOMO at market tops. Extreme small trader bearishness below twenty or twenty-five often marks capitulation bottoms where the last weak hands have sold.
VISUALIZATION AND USER INTERFACE
The visual design incorporates multiple elements working together to facilitate decision-making and maintain situational awareness during active trading. The primary COT Index line plots in bold with adjustable line width, defaulting to two pixels for clear visibility against busy price charts. An optional glow effect, controlled by a simple toggle, adds additional visual prominence through multiple plot layers with progressively increasing transparency and width.
A twenty-one period exponential moving average overlays the index line, providing trend context for positioning changes. When the index crosses above its moving average, it signals accelerating bullish sentiment among the selected trader group regardless of whether absolute positioning is extreme. Conversely, when the index crosses below its moving average, it signals deteriorating sentiment and potentially the beginning of a reversal in positioning trends.
The EMA provides a dynamic reference line for assessing positioning momentum. When the index trades far above its EMA, positioning is not only extreme in absolute terms but also building with momentum. When the index trades far below its EMA, positioning is contracting or reversing, which may indicate weakening conviction even if absolute levels remain elevated.
The data table positioned at the top right of the chart displays eleven metrics for each trader category, transforming the indicator from a simple index calculation into an analytical dashboard providing multidimensional market intelligence. Beyond the COT Index itself, users can monitor positioning extremity, which measures how unusual current levels are compared to historical norms using statistical techniques. The extremity metric clarifies whether a reading represents the ninety-fifth or ninety-ninth percentile, with values above two standard deviations indicating genuinely exceptional positioning.
Market power quantifies each group's influence on total open interest. This metric expresses each trader category's net position as a percentage of total market open interest. A commercial entity holding forty percent of total open interest commands significantly more influence than one holding five percent, making their positioning signals more meaningful.
Momentum and rate of change metrics reveal whether positions are building or contracting, providing early warning of potential regime shifts. Position velocity measures the rate of change in positioning changes, effectively a second derivative providing even earlier insight into inflection points.
Sentiment divergence highlights disagreements between commercial and speculative positioning. This metric calculates the absolute difference between normalized commercial and large speculator index values. Wang (2003) found that these high-divergence environments frequently preceded increased volatility and reversals.
The table also displays concentration metrics when available, showing how positioning is distributed among the largest handful of traders in each category. High concentration indicates a few dominant players controlling most of the positioning, while low concentration suggests broad-based participation across many traders.
THE ALERT SYSTEM AND MONITORING
The alert system, comprising five distinct alert conditions, enables systematic monitoring of dozens of futures markets without constant screen watching. The bullish and bearish COT signal alerts trigger when the index crosses user-defined thresholds, indicating the selected trader group has reached extreme positioning worthy of attention. These alerts fire in real-time as new weekly COT data publishes, typically Friday afternoon following the Tuesday measurement date.
Extreme positioning alerts fire at ninety and ten index levels, representing the top and bottom ten percent of the historical range, warning of particularly stretched readings that historically precede reversals with high probability. When commercials reach a COT Index reading below ten, they are expressing their most bearish stance in the entire lookback period.
The data staleness alert notifies users when COT reports have not updated for more than ten days, preventing reliance on outdated information for trading decisions. Government shutdowns or federal holidays can interrupt the normal Friday publication schedule. Using stale signals while believing them current creates dangerous false confidence.
The indicator's watermark information display positioned in the bottom right corner provides essential context at a glance. This persistent display shows the symbol and timeframe, the COT report date timestamp, days since last update, and the current signal state. A trader analyzing a potential short entry in crude oil can glance at the watermark to instantly confirm positioning context without interrupting analysis flow.
LIMITATIONS AND REALISTIC EXPECTATIONS
Practical application requires understanding both the indicator's considerable strengths and inherent limitations. COT data inherently lags price action by three days, as Tuesday positions are not published until Friday afternoon. This delay means the indicator cannot catch rapid intraday reversals or respond to surprise news events. Traders using the COT Index for timing entries must accept this latency and focus on swing trading and position trading timeframes where three-day lags matter less than in day trading or scalping.
The weekly publication schedule similarly makes the indicator unsuitable for short-term trading strategies requiring immediate feedback. The COT Index works best for traders operating on weekly or longer timeframes, where positioning shifts measured in weeks and months align with trading horizon.
Extreme COT readings can persist far longer than typical technical indicators suggest, testing the patience and capital reserves of traders attempting to fade them. When crude oil enters a sustained bull market driven by genuine supply disruptions, commercial hedgers may maintain bearish positioning for many months as prices grind higher. A commercial COT Index reading of fifteen indicating extreme bearishness might persist for three months while prices continue rallying before finally reversing. Traders without sufficient capital and risk tolerance to weather such drawdowns will exit prematurely, precisely when the signal is about to work (Irwin and Sanders, 2012).
Position sizing discipline becomes paramount when implementing COT-based strategies. Rather than risking large percentages of capital on individual signals, successful COT traders typically allocate modest position sizes across multiple signals, allowing some to take time to mature while others work more quickly.
The indicator also cannot overcome fundamental regime changes that alter the structural drivers of markets. If gold enters a true secular bull market driven by monetary debasement, commercial hedgers may remain persistently bearish as mining companies sell forward years of production at what they perceive as favorable prices. Their positioning indicates valuation concerns from a production cost perspective, but cannot stop prices from rising if investment demand overwhelms physical supply-demand balance.
Similarly, structural changes in market participation can alter the meaning of positioning extremes. The growth of commodity index investing in the two thousands brought massive passive long-only capital into futures markets, fundamentally changing typical positioning ranges. Traders relying on COT signals without recognizing this regime change would have generated numerous false bearish signals during the commodity supercycle from 2003 to 2008.
The research foundation supporting COT analysis derives primarily from commodity markets where the commercial hedger information advantage is most pronounced. Studies specifically examining financial futures like equity indices and bonds show weaker but still present effects. Traders should calibrate expectations accordingly, recognizing that COT analysis likely works better for crude oil, natural gas, corn, and wheat than for the S&P 500, Treasury bonds, or currency futures.
Another important limitation involves the reporting threshold structure. Not all market participants appear in COT data, only those holding positions above specified minimums. In markets dominated by a few large players, concentration metrics become critical for proper interpretation. A single large trader accounting for thirty percent of commercial positioning might skew the entire category if their individual circumstances are idiosyncratic rather than representative.
GOLD FUTURES DURING A HYPOTHETICAL MARKET CYCLE
Consider a practical example using gold futures during a hypothetical but realistic market scenario that illustrates how the COT Index indicator guides trading decisions through a complete market cycle. Suppose gold has rallied from fifteen hundred to nineteen hundred dollars per ounce over six months, driven by inflation concerns following aggressive monetary expansion, geopolitical uncertainty, and sustained buying by Asian central banks for reserve diversification.
Large speculators, operating primarily trend-following strategies, have accumulated increasingly bullish positions throughout this rally. Their COT Index has climbed progressively from forty-five to eighty-five. The table display shows that large speculators now hold net long positions representing thirty-two percent of total open interest, their highest in four years. Momentum indicators show positive readings, indicating positions are still building though at a decelerating rate. Position velocity has turned negative, suggesting the pace of position building is slowing.
Meanwhile, commercial hedgers have responded to the rally by aggressively selling forward production and inventory. Their COT Index has moved inversely to price, declining from fifty-five to twenty. This bearish commercial positioning represents mining companies locking in forward sales at prices they view as attractive relative to production costs. The table shows commercials now hold net short positions representing twenty-nine percent of total open interest, their most bearish stance in five years. Concentration metrics indicate this positioning is broadly distributed across many commercial entities, suggesting the bearish stance reflects collective industry view rather than idiosyncratic positioning by a single firm.
Small traders, attracted by mainstream financial media coverage of gold's impressive rally, have recently piled into long positions. Their COT Index has jumped from forty-five to seventy-eight as retail investors chase the trend. Television financial networks feature frequent segments on gold with bullish guests. Internet forums and social media show surging retail interest. This retail enthusiasm historically marks late-stage trend development rather than early opportunity.
The COT Index indicator, configured to monitor commercial positioning from a contrarian perspective, displays a clear bearish signal given the extreme commercial short positioning. The table displays multiple confirming metrics: positioning extremity shows commercials at the ninety-sixth percentile of bearishness, market power indicates they control twenty-nine percent of open interest, and sentiment divergence registers sixty-five, indicating massive disagreement between commercial hedgers and large speculators. This divergence, the highest in three years, places the market in the historically high-risk category for reversals.
The interpretation requires nuance and consideration of context beyond just COT data. Commercials are not necessarily predicting an imminent crash. Rather, they are hedging business operations at what they collectively view as favorable price levels. However, the data reveals they have sold unusually large quantities of forward production, suggesting either exceptional production expectations for the year ahead or concern about sustaining current price levels or combination of both. Combined with extreme speculator positioning indicating a crowded long trade, and small trader enthusiasm confirming retail FOMO, the confluence suggests elevated reversal risk even if the precise timing remains uncertain.
A prudent trader analyzing this situation might take several actions based on COT Index signals. Existing long positions could be tightened with closer stop losses. Profit-taking on a portion of long exposure could lock in gains while maintaining some participation. Some traders might initiate modest short positions as portfolio hedges, sizing them appropriately for the inherent uncertainty in timing reversals. Others might simply move to the sidelines, avoiding new long entries until positioning normalizes.
The key lesson from case study analysis is that COT signals provide probabilistic edges rather than deterministic predictions. They work over many observations by identifying higher-probability configurations, not by generating perfect calls on individual trades. A fifty-five percent win rate with proper risk management produces substantial profits over time, yet still means forty-five percent of signals will be premature or wrong. Traders must embrace this probabilistic reality rather than seeking the impossible goal of perfect accuracy.
INTEGRATION WITH TRADING SYSTEMS
Integration with existing trading systems represents a natural and powerful use case for COT analysis, adding a positioning dimension to price-based technical approaches or fundamental analytical frameworks. Few traders rely exclusively on a single indicator or methodology. Rather, they build systems that synthesize multiple information sources, with each component addressing different aspects of market behavior.
Trend followers might use COT extremes as regime filters, modifying position sizing or avoiding new trend entries when positioning reaches levels historically associated with reversals. Consider a classic trend-following system based on moving average crossovers and momentum breakouts. Integration of COT analysis adds nuance. When large speculator positioning exceeds ninety or commercial positioning falls below ten, the regime filter recognizes elevated reversal risk. The system might reduce position sizing by fifty percent for new signals during these high-risk periods (Kaufman, 2013).
Mean reversion traders might require COT signal confluence before fading extended moves. When crude oil becomes technically overbought and large speculators show extreme long positioning above eighty-five, both signals confirm. If only technical indicators show extremes while positioning remains neutral, the potential short signal is rejected, avoiding fades of trends with underlying institutional support (Kaufman, 2013).
Discretionary traders can monitor the indicator as a continuous awareness tool, informing bias and position sizing without dictating mechanical entries and exits. A discretionary trader might notice commercial positioning shifting from neutral to progressively more bullish over several months. This trend informs growing positive bias even without triggering mechanical signals.
Multi-timeframe analysis represents another powerful integration approach. A trader might use daily charts for trade execution and timing while monitoring weekly COT positioning for strategic context. When both timeframes align, highest-probability opportunities emerge.
Portfolio construction for futures traders can incorporate COT signals as an additional selection criterion. Markets showing strong technical setups AND favorable COT positioning receive highest allocations. Markets with strong technicals but neutral or unfavorable positioning receive reduced allocations.
ADVANCED METRICS AND INTERPRETATION
The metrics table transforms simple positioning data into multidimensional market intelligence. Position extremity, calculated as the absolute deviation from the historical mean normalized by standard deviation, helps identify truly unusual readings versus routine fluctuations. A reading above two standard deviations indicates ninety-fifth percentile or higher extremity. Above three standard deviations indicates ninety-ninth percentile or higher, genuinely rare positioning that historically precedes major events with high probability.
Market power, expressed as a percentage of total open interest, reveals whose positioning matters most from a mechanical market impact perspective. Consider two scenarios in gold futures. In scenario one, commercials show a COT Index reading of fifteen while their market power metric shows they hold net shorts representing thirty-five percent of open interest. This is a high-confidence bearish signal. In scenario two, commercials also show a reading of fifteen, but market power shows only eight percent. While positioning is extreme relative to this category's normal range, their limited market share means less mechanical influence on price.
The rate of change and momentum metrics highlight whether positions are accelerating or decelerating, often providing earlier warnings than absolute levels alone. A COT Index reading of seventy-five with rapidly building momentum suggests continued movement toward extremes. Conversely, a reading of eighty-five with decelerating or negative momentum indicates the positioning trend is exhausting.
Position velocity measures the rate of change in positioning changes, effectively a second derivative. When velocity shifts from positive to negative, it indicates that while positioning may still be growing, the pace of growth is slowing. This deceleration often precedes actual reversal in positioning direction by several weeks.
Sentiment divergence calculates the absolute difference between normalized commercial and large speculator index values. When commercials show extreme bearish positioning at twenty while large speculators show extreme bullish positioning at eighty, the divergence reaches sixty, representing near-maximum disagreement. Wang (2003) found that these high-divergence environments frequently preceded increased volatility and reversals. The mechanism is intuitive. Extreme divergence indicates the informed hedgers and momentum-following speculators have positioned opposite each other with conviction. One group will prove correct and profit while the other proves incorrect and suffers losses. The resolution of this disagreement through price movement often involves volatility.
The table also displays concentration metrics when available. High concentration indicates a few dominant players controlling most of the positioning within a category, while low concentration suggests broad-based participation. Broad-based positioning more reliably reflects collective market intelligence and industry consensus. If mining companies globally all independently decide to hedge aggressively at similar price levels, it suggests genuine industry-wide view about price valuations rather than circumstances specific to one firm.
DATA QUALITY AND RELIABILITY
The CFTC has maintained COT reporting in various forms since the nineteen twenties, providing nearly a century of positioning data across multiple market cycles. However, data quality and reporting standards have evolved substantially over this long period. Modern electronic reporting implemented in the late nineteen nineties and early two thousands significantly improved accuracy and timeliness compared to earlier paper-based systems.
Traders should understand that COT reports capture positions as of Tuesday's close each week. Markets remain open three additional days before publication on Friday afternoon, meaning the reported data is three days stale when received. During periods of rapid market movement or major news events, this lag can be significant. The indicator addresses this limitation by including timestamp information and staleness warnings.
The three-day lag creates particular challenges during extreme volatility episodes. Flash crashes, surprise central bank interventions, geopolitical shocks, and other high-impact events can completely transform market positioning within hours. Traders must exercise judgment about whether reported positioning remains relevant given intervening events.
Reporting thresholds also mean that not all market participants appear in disaggregated COT data. Traders holding positions below specified minimums aggregate into the non-reportable or small trader category. This aggregation affects different markets differently. In highly liquid contracts like crude oil with thousands of participants, reportable traders might represent seventy to eighty percent of open interest. In thinly traded contracts with only dozens of active participants, a few large reportable positions might represent ninety-five percent of open interest.
Another data quality consideration involves trader classification into categories. The CFTC assigns traders to commercial or non-commercial categories based on reported business purpose and activities. However, this process is not perfect. Some entities engage in both commercial and speculative activities, creating ambiguity about proper classification. The transition to Disaggregated reports attempted to address some of these ambiguities by creating more granular categories.
COMPARISON WITH ALTERNATIVE APPROACHES
Several alternative approaches to COT analysis exist in the trading community beyond the normalization methodology employed by this indicator. Some analysts focus on absolute position changes week-over-week rather than index-based normalization. This approach calculates the change in net positioning from one week to the next. The emphasis falls on momentum in positioning changes rather than absolute levels relative to history. This method potentially identifies regime shifts earlier but sacrifices cross-market comparability (Briese, 2008).
Other practitioners employ more complex statistical transformations including percentile rankings, z-score standardization, and machine learning classification algorithms. Ruan and Zhang (2018) demonstrated that machine learning models applied to COT data could achieve modest improvements in forecasting accuracy compared to simple threshold-based approaches. However, these gains came at the cost of interpretability and implementation complexity.
The COT Index indicator intentionally employs a relatively straightforward normalization methodology for several important reasons. First, transparency enhances user understanding and trust. Traders can verify calculations manually and develop intuitive feel for what different readings mean. Second, academic research suggests that most of the predictive power in COT data comes from extreme positioning levels rather than subtle patterns requiring complex statistical methods to detect. Third, robust methods that work consistently across many markets and time periods tend to be simpler rather than more complex, reducing the risk of overfitting to historical data. Fourth, the complexity costs of implementation matter for retail traders without programming teams or computational infrastructure.
PSYCHOLOGICAL ASPECTS OF COT TRADING
Trading based on COT data requires psychological fortitude that differs from momentum-based approaches. Contrarian positioning signals inherently mean betting against prevailing market sentiment and recent price action. When commercials reach extreme bearish positioning, prices have typically been rising, sometimes for extended periods. The price chart looks bullish, momentum indicators confirm strength, moving averages align positively. The COT signal says bet against all of this. This psychological difficulty explains why COT analysis remains underutilized relative to trend-following methods.
Human psychology strongly predisposes us toward extrapolation and recency bias. When prices rally for months, our pattern-matching brains naturally expect continued rally. The recent price action dominates our perception, overwhelming rational analysis about positioning extremes and historical probabilities. The COT signal asking us to sell requires overriding these powerful psychological impulses.
The indicator design attempts to support the required psychological discipline through several features. Clear threshold markers and signal states reduce ambiguity about when signals trigger. When the commercial index crosses below twenty, the signal is explicit and unambiguous. The background shifts to red, the signal label displays bearish, and alerts fire. This explicitness helps traders act on signals rather than waiting for additional confirmation that may never arrive.
The metrics table provides analytical justification for contrarian positions, helping traders maintain conviction during inevitable periods of adverse price movement. When a trader enters short positions based on extreme commercial bearish positioning but prices continue rallying for several weeks, doubt naturally emerges. The table display provides reassurance. Commercial positioning remains extremely bearish. Divergence remains high. The positioning thesis remains intact even though price action has not yet confirmed.
Alert functionality ensures traders do not miss signals due to inattention while also not requiring constant monitoring that can lead to emotional decision-making. Setting alerts for COT extremes enables a healthier relationship with markets. When meaningful signals occur, alerts notify them. They can then calmly assess the situation and execute planned responses.
However, no indicator design can completely overcome the psychological difficulty of contrarian trading. Some traders simply cannot maintain short positions while prices rally. For these traders, COT analysis might be better employed as an exit signal for long positions rather than an entry signal for shorts.
Ultimately, successful COT trading requires developing comfort with probabilistic thinking rather than certainty-seeking. The signals work over many observations by identifying higher-probability configurations, not by generating perfect calls on individual trades. A fifty-five or sixty percent win rate with proper risk management produces substantial profits over years, yet still means forty to forty-five percent of signals will be premature or wrong. COT analysis provides genuine edge, but edge means probability advantage, not elimination of losing trades.
EDUCATIONAL RESOURCES AND CONTINUOUS LEARNING
The indicator provides extensive built-in educational resources through its documentation, detailed tooltips, and transparent calculations. However, mastering COT analysis requires study beyond any single tool or resource. Several excellent resources provide valuable extensions of the concepts covered in this guide.
Books and practitioner-focused monographs offer accessible entry points. Stephen Briese published The Commitments of Traders Bible in two thousand eight, offering detailed breakdowns of how different markets and trader categories behave (Briese, 2008). Briese's work stands out for its empirical focus and market-specific insights. Jack Schwager includes discussion of COT analysis within the broader context of market behavior in his book Market Sense and Nonsense (Schwager, 2012). Perry Kaufman's Trading Systems and Methods represents perhaps the most rigorous practitioner-focused text on systematic trading approaches including COT analysis (Kaufman, 2013).
Academic journal articles provide the rigorous statistical foundation underlying COT analysis. The Journal of Futures Markets regularly publishes research on positioning data and its predictive properties. Bessembinder and Chan's earlier work on systematic risk, hedging pressure, and risk premiums in futures markets provides theoretical foundation (Bessembinder, 1992). Chang's examination of speculator returns provides historical context (Chang, 1985). Irwin and Sanders provide essential skeptical perspective in their two thousand twelve article (Irwin and Sanders, 2012). Wang's two thousand three article provides one of the most empirical analyses of COT data across multiple commodity markets (Wang, 2003).
Online resources extend beyond academic and book-length treatments. The CFTC website provides free access to current and historical COT reports in multiple formats. The explanatory materials section offers detailed documentation of report construction, category definitions, and historical methodology changes. Traders serious about COT analysis should read these official CFTC documents to understand exactly what they are analyzing.
Commercial COT data services such as Barchart provide enhanced visualization and analysis tools beyond raw CFTC data. TradingView's educational materials, published scripts library, and user community provide additional resources for exploring different approaches to COT analysis.
The key to mastering COT analysis lies not in finding a single definitive source but rather in building understanding through multiple perspectives and information sources. Academic research provides rigorous empirical foundation. Practitioner-focused books offer practical implementation insights. Direct engagement with data through systematic backtesting develops intuition about how positioning dynamics manifest across different market conditions.
SYNTHESIZING KNOWLEDGE INTO PRACTICE
The COT Index indicator represents the synthesis of academic research, trading experience, and software engineering into a practical tool accessible to retail traders equipped with nothing more than a TradingView account and willingness to learn. What once required expensive data subscriptions, custom programming capabilities, statistical software, and institutional resources now appears as a straightforward indicator requiring only basic parameter selection and modest study to understand. This democratization of institutional-grade analysis tools represents a broader trend in financial markets over recent decades.
Yet technology and data access alone provide no edge without understanding and discipline. Markets remain relentlessly efficient at eliminating edges that become too widely known and mechanically exploited. The COT Index indicator succeeds only when users invest time learning the underlying concepts, understand the limitations and probability distributions involved, and integrate signals thoughtfully into trading plans rather than applying them mechanically.
The academic research demonstrates conclusively that institutional positioning contains genuine information about future price movements, particularly at extremes where commercial hedgers are maximally bearish or bullish relative to historical norms. This informational content is neither perfect nor deterministic but rather probabilistic, providing edge over many observations through identification of higher-probability configurations. Bessembinder and Chan's finding that commercial positioning explained modest but significant variance in future returns illustrates this probabilistic nature perfectly (Bessembinder and Chan, 1992). The effect is real and statistically significant, yet it explains perhaps ten to fifteen percent of return variance rather than most variance. Much of price movement remains unpredictable even with positioning intelligence.
The practical implication is that COT analysis works best as one component of a trading system rather than a standalone oracle. It provides the positioning dimension, revealing where the smart money has positioned and where the crowd has followed, but price action analysis provides the timing dimension. Fundamental analysis provides the catalyst dimension. Risk management provides the survival dimension. These components work together synergistically.
The indicator's design philosophy prioritizes transparency and education over black-box complexity, empowering traders to understand exactly what they are analyzing and why. Every calculation is documented and user-adjustable. The threshold markers, background coloring, tables, and clear signal states provide multiple reinforcing channels for conveying the same information.
This educational approach reflects a conviction that sustainable trading success comes from genuine understanding rather than mechanical system-following. Traders who understand why commercial positioning matters, how different trader categories behave, what positioning extremes signify, and where signals fit within probability distributions can adapt when market conditions change. Traders mechanically following black-box signals without comprehension abandon systems after normal losing streaks.
The research foundation supporting COT analysis comes primarily from commodity markets where commercial hedger informational advantages are most pronounced. Agricultural producers hedging crops know more about supply conditions than distant speculators. Energy companies hedging production know more about operating costs than financial traders. Metals miners hedging output know more about ore grades than index funds. Financial futures markets show weaker but still present effects.
The journey from reading this documentation to profitable trading based on COT analysis involves several stages that cannot be rushed. Initial reading and basic understanding represents the first stage. Historical study represents the second stage, reviewing past market cycles to observe how positioning extremes preceded major turning points. Paper trading or small-size real trading represents the third stage to experience the psychological challenges. Refinement based on results and personal psychology represents the fourth stage.
Markets will continue evolving. New participant categories will emerge. Regulatory structures will change. Technology will advance. Yet the fundamental dynamics driving COT analysis, that different market participants have different information, different motivations, and different forecasting abilities that manifest in their positioning, will persist as long as futures markets exist. While specific thresholds or optimal parameters may shift over time, the core logic remains sound and adaptable.
The trader equipped with this indicator, understanding of the theory and evidence behind COT analysis, realistic expectations about probability rather than certainty, discipline to maintain positions through adverse volatility, and patience to allow signals time to develop possesses genuine edge in markets. The edge is not enormous, markets cannot allow large persistent inefficiencies without arbitraging them away, but it is real, measurable, and exploitable by those willing to invest in learning and disciplined application.
REFERENCES
Bessembinder, H. (1992) Systematic risk, hedging pressure, and risk premiums in futures markets, Review of Financial Studies, 5(4), pp. 637-667.
Bessembinder, H. and Chan, K. (1992) The profitability of technical trading rules in the Asian stock markets, Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, 3(2-3), pp. 257-284.
Briese, S. (2008) The Commitments of Traders Bible: How to Profit from Insider Market Intelligence. Hoboken: John Wiley & Sons.
Chang, E.C. (1985) Returns to speculators and the theory of normal backwardation, Journal of Finance, 40(1), pp. 193-208.
Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) (2009) Explanatory Notes: Disaggregated Commitments of Traders Report. Available at: www.cftc.gov (Accessed: 15 January 2025).
Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) (2020) Commitments of Traders: About the Report. Available at: www.cftc.gov (Accessed: 15 January 2025).
Irwin, S.H. and Sanders, D.R. (2012) Testing the Masters Hypothesis in commodity futures markets, Energy Economics, 34(1), pp. 256-269.
Kaufman, P.J. (2013) Trading Systems and Methods. 5th edn. Hoboken: John Wiley & Sons.
Ruan, Y. and Zhang, Y. (2018) Forecasting commodity futures prices using machine learning: Evidence from the Chinese commodity futures market, Applied Economics Letters, 25(12), pp. 845-849.
Sanders, D.R., Boris, K. and Manfredo, M. (2004) Hedgers, funds, and small speculators in the energy futures markets: an analysis of the CFTC's Commitments of Traders reports, Energy Economics, 26(3), pp. 425-445.
Schwager, J.D. (2012) Market Sense and Nonsense: How the Markets Really Work and How They Don't. Hoboken: John Wiley & Sons.
Tharp, V.K. (2008) Super Trader: Make Consistent Profits in Good and Bad Markets. New York: McGraw-Hill.
Wang, C. (2003) The behavior and performance of major types of futures traders, Journal of Futures Markets, 23(1), pp. 1-31.
Williams, L.R. and Noseworthy, M. (2009) The Right Stock at the Right Time: Prospering in the Coming Good Years. Hoboken: John Wiley & Sons.
FURTHER READING
For traders seeking to deepen their understanding of COT analysis and futures market positioning beyond this documentation, the following resources provide valuable extensions:
Academic Journal Articles:
Fishe, R.P.H. and Smith, A. (2012) Do speculators drive commodity prices away from supply and demand fundamentals?, Journal of Commodity Markets, 1(1), pp. 1-16.
Haigh, M.S., Hranaiova, J. and Overdahl, J.A. (2007) Hedge funds, volatility, and liquidity provision in energy futures markets, Journal of Alternative Investments, 9(4), pp. 10-38.
Kocagil, A.E. (1997) Does futures speculation stabilize spot prices? Evidence from metals markets, Applied Financial Economics, 7(1), pp. 115-125.
Sanders, D.R. and Irwin, S.H. (2011) The impact of index funds in commodity futures markets: A systems approach, Journal of Alternative Investments, 14(1), pp. 40-49.
Books and Practitioner Resources:
Murphy, J.J. (1999) Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets: A Guide to Trading Methods and Applications. New York: New York Institute of Finance.
Pring, M.J. (2002) Technical Analysis Explained: The Investor's Guide to Spotting Investment Trends and Turning Points. 4th edn. New York: McGraw-Hill.
Federal Reserve and Research Institution Publications:
Federal Reserve Banks regularly publish working papers examining commodity markets, futures positioning, and price discovery mechanisms. The Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco and Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City maintain active research programs in this area.
Online Resources:
The CFTC website provides free access to current and historical COT reports, explanatory materials, and regulatory documentation.
Barchart offers enhanced COT data visualization and screening tools.
TradingView's community library contains numerous published scripts and educational materials exploring different approaches to positioning analysis.
Parsifal.Swing.TrendScoreThe Parsifal.Swing.TrendScore indicator is a module within the Parsifal Swing Suite, which includes a set of swing indicators such as:
• Parsifal Swing TrendScore
• Parsifal Swing Composite
• Parsifal Swing RSI
• Parsifal Swing Flow
Each module serves as an indicator facilitating judgment of the current swing state in the underlying market.
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Background
Market movements typically follow a time-varying trend channel within which prices oscillate. These oscillations—or swings—within the trend are inherently tradable.
They can be approached:
• One-sidedly, aligning with the trend (generally safer), or
• Two-sidedly, aiming to profit from mean reversions as well.
Note: Mean reversions in strong trends often manifest as sideways consolidations, making one-sided trades more stable.
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The Parsifal Swing Suite
The modules aim to provide additional insights into the swing state within a trend and offer various trigger points to assist with entry decisions.
All modules in the suite act as weak oscillators, meaning they fluctuate within a range but are not bounded like true oscillators (e.g., RSI, which is constrained between 0% and 100%).
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The Parsifal.Swing.TrendScore – Specifics
The Parsifal.Swing.TrendScore module combines short-term trend data with information about the current swing state, derived from raw price data and classical technical indicators. It provides an indication of how well the short-term trend aligns with the prevailing swing, based on recent market behavior.
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How Swing.TrendScore Works
The Swing.TrendScore calculates a swing score by collecting data within a bin (i.e., a single candle or time bucket) that signals an upside or downside swing. These signals are then aggregated together with insights from classical swing indicators.
Additionally, it calculates a short-term trend score using core technical signals, including:
• The Z-score of the price's distance from various EMAs
• The slope of EMAs
• Other trend-strength signals from additional technical indicators
These two components—the swing score and the trend score—are then combined to form the Swing.TrendScore indicator, which evaluates the short-term trend in context with swing behavior.
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How to Interpret Swing.TrendScore
The trend component enhances Swing.TrendScore’s ability to provide stronger signals when the short-term trend and swing state align.
It can also override the swing score; for example, even if a mean reversion appears to be forming, a dominant short-term trend may still control the market behavior.
This makes Swing.TrendScore particularly valuable for:
• Short-term trend-following strategies
• Medium-term swing trading
Unlike typical swing indicators, Swing.TrendScore is designed to respond more to medium-term swings rather than short-lived fluctuations.
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Behavior and Chart Representation
The Swing.TrendScore indicator fluctuates within a range, as most of its components are range-bound (though Z-score components may technically extend beyond).
• Historically high or low values may suggest overbought or oversold conditions
• The chart displays:
o A fast curve (orange)
o A slow curve (white)
o A shaded background representing the market state
• Extreme values followed by curve reversals may signal a developing mean reversion
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TrendScore Background Value
The Background Value reflects the combined state of the short-term trend and swing:
• > 0 (shaded green) → Bullish mode: swing and short-term trend both upward
• < 0 (shaded red) → Bearish mode: swing and short-term trend both downward
• The absolute value represents the confidence level in the market mode
Notably, the Background Value can remain positive during short downswings if the short-term trend remains bullish—and vice versa.
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How to Use the Parsifal.Swing.TrendScore
Several change points can act as entry triggers or aids:
• Fast Trigger: change in slope of the fast signal curve
• Trigger: fast line crosses slow line or the slope of the slow signal changes
• Slow Trigger: change in sign of the Background Value
Examples of these trigger points are illustrated in the accompanying chart.
Additionally, market highs and lows aligning with the swing indicator values may serve as pivot points in the evolving price process.
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As always, this indicator should be used in conjunction with other tools and market context in live trading.
While it provides valuable insight and potential entry points, it does not predict future price action.
Instead, it reflects recent tendencies and should be used judiciously.
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Extensions
The aggregation of information—whether derived from bins or technical indicators—is currently performed via simple averaging. However, this can be modified using alternative weighting schemes, based on:
• Historical performance
• Relevance of the data
• Specific market conditions
Smoothing periods used in calculations are also modifiable. In general, the EMAs applied for smoothing can be extended to reflect expectations based on relevance-weighted probability measures.
Since EMAs inherently give more weight to recent data, this allows for adaptive smoothing.
Additionally, EMAs may be further extended to incorporate negative weights, akin to wavelet transform techniques.
Supertrend + MACD Trend Change with AlertsDetailed Guide
1. Indicator Overview
Purpose:
This script combines the Supertrend and MACD indicators to help you detect potential trend changes. It plots a Supertrend line (green for bullish, red for bearish) and marks the chart with shapes when a trend reversal is signaled by both indicators. In addition, it includes alert conditions so that you can be notified when a potential trend change occurs.
How It Works:
Supertrend: Uses the Average True Range (ATR) to determine dynamic support and resistance levels. When the price crosses these levels, it signals a possible change in trend.
MACD: Focuses on the crossover between the MACD line and the signal line. A bullish crossover (MACD line crossing above the signal line) suggests upward momentum, while a bearish crossover (MACD line crossing below the signal line) suggests downward momentum.
2. Supertrend Component
Key Parameters:
Factor:
Function: Multiplies the ATR to create an offset from the mid-price (hl2).
Adjustment Impact: Lower values make the indicator more sensitive (producing more frequent signals), while higher values result in fewer, more confirmed signals.
ATR Period:
Function: Sets the number of bars over which the ATR is calculated.
Adjustment Impact: A shorter period makes the ATR react more quickly to recent price changes (but can be noisy), whereas a longer period provides a smoother volatility measurement.
Trend Calculation:
The script compares the previous close with the dynamically calculated upper and lower bands. If the previous close is above the upper band, the trend is set to bullish (1); if it’s below the lower band, the trend is bearish (-1). The Supertrend line is then plotted in green for bullish trends and red for bearish trends.
3. MACD Component
Key Parameters:
Fast MA (Fast Moving Average):
Function: Represents a shorter-term average, making the MACD line more sensitive to recent price movements.
Slow MA (Slow Moving Average):
Function: Represents a longer-term average to smooth out the MACD line.
Signal Smoothing:
Function: Defines the period for the signal line, which is a smoothed version of the MACD line.
Crossover Logic:
The script uses the crossover() function to detect when the MACD line crosses above the signal line (bullish crossover) and crossunder() to detect when it crosses below (bearish crossover).
4. Combined Signal Logic
How Signals Are Combined:
Bullish Scenario:
When the MACD shows a bullish crossover (MACD line crosses above the signal line) and the Supertrend indicates a bullish trend (green line), a green upward triangle is plotted below the bar.
Bearish Scenario:
When the MACD shows a bearish crossover (MACD line crosses below the signal line) and the Supertrend indicates a bearish trend (red line), a red downward triangle is plotted above the bar.
Rationale:
By combining the signals from both indicators, you increase the likelihood that the detected trend change is reliable, filtering out some false signals.
5. Alert Functionality
Alert Setup in the Code:
The alertcondition() function is used to define conditions under which TradingView can trigger alerts.
There are two alert conditions:
Bullish Alert: Activated when there is a bullish MACD crossover and the Supertrend confirms an uptrend.
Bearish Alert: Activated when there is a bearish MACD crossover and the Supertrend confirms a downtrend.
What Happens When an Alert Triggers:
When one of these conditions is met, TradingView registers the alert condition. You can then create an alert in TradingView (using the alert dialog) and choose one of these alert conditions. Once set up, you’ll receive notifications (via pop-ups, email, or SMS, depending on your settings) whenever a trend change is signaled.
6. User Adjustments and Their Effects
Factor (Supertrend):
Adjustment: Lowering the factor increases sensitivity, resulting in more frequent signals; raising it will filter out some signals, making them potentially more reliable.
ATR Period (Supertrend):
Adjustment: A shorter ATR period makes the indicator more responsive to recent price movements (but can introduce noise), while a longer period smooths out the response.
MACD Parameters (Fast MA, Slow MA, and Signal Smoothing):
Adjustment:
Shortening the Fast MA increases sensitivity, generating earlier signals that might be less reliable.
Lengthening the Slow MA produces a smoother MACD line, reducing noise.
Adjusting the Signal Smoothing changes how quickly the signal line responds to changes in the MACD line.
7. Best Practices and Considerations
Multiple Confirmation:
Even if both indicators signal a trend change, consider confirming with additional analysis such as volume, price action, or other indicators.
Market Conditions:
These indicators tend to perform best in trending markets. In sideways or choppy conditions, you may experience more false alerts.
Backtesting:
Before applying the indicator in live trading, backtest your settings to ensure they suit your trading style and the market conditions.
Risk Management:
Always use proper risk management, including stop-loss orders and appropriate position sizing, as alerts may occasionally produce late or false signals.
Happy trading!
Trend Stability Index (TSI)Overview
The Trend Stability Index (TSI) is a technical analysis tool designed to evaluate the stability of a market trend by analyzing both price movements and trading volume. By combining these two crucial elements, the TSI provides traders with insights into the strength and reliability of ongoing trends, assisting in making informed trading decisions.
Key Features
• Dual Analysis: Integrates price changes and volume fluctuations to assess trend stability.
• Customizable Periods: Allows users to set evaluation periods for both trend and volume based on their trading preferences.
• Visual Indicators: Displays the Trend Stability Index as a line chart, highlights neutral zones, and uses background colors to indicate trend stability or instability.
Configuration Settings
1. Trend Length (trendLength)
• Description: Determines the number of periods over which the price stability is evaluated.
• Default Value: 15
• Usage: A longer trend length smooths out short-term volatility, providing a clearer picture of the overarching trend.
2. Volume Length (volumeLength)
• Description: Sets the number of periods over which trading volume changes are assessed.
• Default Value: 15
• Usage: Adjusting the volume length helps in capturing significant volume movements that may influence trend strength.
Calculation Methodology
The Trend Stability Index is calculated through a series of steps that analyze both price and volume changes:
1. Price Change Rate (priceChange)
• Calculation: Utilizes the Rate of Change (ROC) function on the closing prices over the specified trendLength.
• Purpose: Measures the percentage change in price over the trend evaluation period, indicating the direction and momentum of the price movement.
2. Volume Change Rate (volumeChange)
• Calculation: Applies the Rate of Change (ROC) function to the trading volume over the specified volumeLength.
• Purpose: Assesses the percentage change in trading volume, providing insight into the conviction behind price movements.
3. Trend Stability (trendStability)
• Calculation: Multiplies priceChange by volumeChange.
• Purpose: Combines price and volume changes to gauge the overall stability of the trend. A higher positive value suggests a strong and stable trend, while negative values may indicate trend weakness or reversal.
4. Trend Stability Index (TSI)
• Calculation: Applies a Simple Moving Average (SMA) to the trendStability over the trendLength period.
• Purpose: Smooths the trend stability data to create a more consistent and interpretable index.
Trend/Ranging Determination
• Stable Trend (isStable)
• Condition: When the TSI value is greater than 0.
• Interpretation: Indicates that the current trend is stable and likely to continue in its direction.
• Unstable Trend / Range-bound Market
• Condition: When the TSI value is less than or equal to 0.
• Interpretation: Suggests that the trend may be weakening, reversing, or that the market is moving sideways without a clear direction.
Visualization
The TSI indicator employs several visual elements to convey information effectively:
1. TSI Line
• Representation: Plotted as a blue line.
• Purpose: Displays the Trend Stability Index values over time, allowing traders to observe trend stability dynamics.
2. Neutral Horizontal Line
• Representation: A gray horizontal line at the 0 level.
• Purpose: Serves as a reference point to distinguish between stable and unstable trends.
3. Background Color
• Stable Trend: Green background with 80% transparency when isStable is true.
• Unstable Trend: Red background with 80% transparency when isStable is false.
• Purpose: Provides an immediate visual cue about the current trend’s stability, enhancing the interpretability of the indicator.
Usage Guidelines
• Identifying Trend Strength: Utilize the TSI to confirm the strength of existing trends. A consistently positive TSI suggests strong trend momentum, while a negative TSI may signal caution or a potential reversal.
• Volume Confirmation: The integration of volume changes helps in validating price movements. Significant price changes accompanied by corresponding volume shifts can reinforce the reliability of the trend.
• Entry and Exit Signals: Traders can use crossovers of the TSI with the neutral line (0 level) as potential entry or exit points. For instance, a crossover from below to above 0 may indicate a bullish trend initiation, while a crossover from above to below 0 could suggest bearish momentum.
• Combining with Other Indicators: To enhance trading strategies, consider using the TSI in conjunction with other technical indicators such as Moving Averages, RSI, or MACD for comprehensive market analysis.
Example Scenario
Imagine analyzing a stock with the following observations using the TSI:
• The TSI has been consistently above 0 for the past 30 periods, accompanied by increasing trading volume. This scenario indicates a strong and stable uptrend, suggesting that buying opportunities may be favorable.
• Conversely, if the TSI drops below 0 while the price remains relatively flat and volume decreases, it may imply that the current trend is losing momentum, and the market could be entering a consolidation phase or preparing for a trend reversal.
Conclusion
The Trend Stability Index is a valuable tool for traders seeking to assess the reliability and strength of market trends by integrating price and volume dynamics. Its customizable settings and clear visual indicators make it adaptable to various trading styles and market conditions. By incorporating the TSI into your trading analysis, you can enhance your ability to identify and act upon stable and profitable trends.
Accumulation Momentum IndicatorEveryone wants to be in a trend, I think this indicator does a great job at showing that key momentum that traders try and capitalize on everyday. I used a Stochastic Momentum Indicator (SMI) indicator. It's a lot like a slower MACD which allows me to capitalize on changing momentum. My goal was to make an indicator that was able to use a weighted mean of many accumulation/momentum indicators. This would give me a well rounded look to really see what direction the momentum and volume is heading.
I did some research on some of the best Accumulation and Momentum Indicators. I landed on 4.
The Accumulation Distribution line which measures the cumulative flow of money in or out of a security. It helps show how quickly money is going in and out of a commodity. The line moving up quickly indicates fast Accumulation while the A/C line is moving down quickly is shows falling Distribution. This can show the momentum and accumulation of a commodity in short and long term based off of Volume.
The On Balance Volume, OBV is a combination of Price Movement and Volume. If price closes higher then the previous bar volume is added while if the price closes lower volume is subtracted. This gives us an overall tally of whether volume is increasing with price or slowing down the momentum in the direction of the current trend. This gives us the ability to see if volume is supporting the price increasing (beginning/middle of a trend) or price is slowing down even though it is still heading in the direction of the current trend (signaling the end of the current trend).
The Force Index, this indicator measures the overall strength of the price movements. It does this by a calculation of price and volume. The close of the current bar subtracted by the previous multiplied by the volume. The result gives us either strong upward or downward motion. This adds magnitude to the overall movement/momentum of the indicator.
Lastly but most certainly not least is the Momentum indicator, (Price Momentum) a simple indicator that shows you the difference between the current close price and the close price from a specified period ago (Most commonly 14 periods/bars ago). Having this indicator is a must because it shows the speed at which price is accelerating or decelerating.
These 4 indicators together help round out the current volume, price movements, accumulation, and momentum of the current market. Since these indicators all have different scales and calculations I had to Normalize the Values to a 0-100 scale. This gives us 1 line and a much more readable easy to understand indicator. After they were normalized I gave them a weighted average that you can control. So lets say you cared more about the Force Index and the OBV rather then the Momentum and the Accumulation Distribution indicators, you would be able to give them more weight in the overall calculation as well as 0 out those you don't even want involved.
I hope the flexibility and the combination of 4 strong Accumulation Momentum indicators helps you better gauge the direction a commodity might head. The way it's used is when the Accumulation Momentum line is Above 50 buying pressure is stronger then selling pressure. An Accumulation Momentum line Below 50 suggests that distribution is more dominant in the current market. This indicator combines four different methods of analyzing price and volume to give you a single composite momentum score, making it easier to visualize when a commodity is being accumulated or distributed and how quickly this process is happening. It helps you track market sentiment based on both price movement and volume, with a clear, visual representation of buying and selling pressure.
Please let me know what you think and how you think I might be able to improve the script. Enjoy!
FS Scorpion TailKey Features & Components:
1. Custom Date & Chart-Based Controls
The software allows users to define whether they want signals to start on a specific date (useSpecificDate) or base calculations on the visible chart’s range (useRelativeScreenSumLeft and useRelativeScreenSumRight).
Users can input the number of stocks to buy/sell per signal and decide whether to sell only for profit.
2. Technical Indicators Used
EMA (Exponential Moving Average): Users can define the length of the EMA and specify if buy/sell signals should occur when the EMA is rising or falling.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): MACD crossovers, slopes of the MACD line, signal line, and histogram are used for generating buy/sell signals.
ATR (Average True Range): Signals are generated based on rising or falling ATR.
Aroon Indicator: Buy and sell signals are based on the behavior of the Aroon upper and lower lines.
RSI (Relative Strength Index): Tracks whether the RSI and its moving average are rising or falling to generate signals.
Bollinger Bands: Buy/sell signals depend on the basis, upper, and lower band behavior (rising or falling).
3. Signal Detection
The software creates arrays for each indicator to store conditions for buy/sell signals.
The allTrue() function checks whether all conditions for buy/sell signals are true, ensuring that only valid signals are plotted.
Signals are differentiated between buy-only, sell-only, and both buy and sell (dual signal).
4. Visual Indicators
Vertical Lines: When buy, sell, or dual signals are detected, vertical lines are drawn at the corresponding bar with configurable colors (green for buy, red for sell, silver for dual).
Buy/Sell Labels: Visual labels are plotted directly on the chart to denote buy or sell signals, allowing for clear interpretation of the strategy.
5. Cash Flow & Metrics Display
The software maintains an internal ledger of how many stocks are bought/sold, their prices, and whether a profit is being made.
A table is displayed at the bottom right of the chart, showing:
Initial investment
Current stocks owned
Last buy price
Market stake
Net profit
The table background turns green for profit and red for loss.
6. Dynamic Decision Making
Buy Condition: If a valid buy signal is generated, the software decrements the cash balance and adds stocks to the inventory.
Sell Condition: If the sell signal is valid (and meets the profit requirement), stocks are sold, and cash is incremented.
A fallback check ensures the sell logic prevents selling more stocks than are available and adjusts stock holding appropriately (e.g., sell half).
Customization and Usage
Indicator Adjustments: The user can choose which indicators to activate (e.g., EMA, MACD, RSI) via input controls. Each indicator has specific customizable parameters such as lengths, slopes, and conditions.
Signal Flexibility: The user can adjust conditions for buying and selling based on various technical indicators, which adds flexibility in implementing trading strategies. For example, users may require the RSI to be higher than its moving average or trigger sales only when MACD crosses under the signal line.
Profit Sensitivity: The software allows the option to sell only when a profit is assured by checking if the current price is higher than the last buy price.
Summary of Usage:
Indicator Selection: Enable or disable technical indicators like EMA, MACD, RSI, Aroon, ATR, and Bollinger Bands to fit your trading strategy.
Custom Date/Chart Settings: Choose whether to calculate based on specific time ranges or visible portions of the chart.
Dynamic Signal Plotting: Once buy or sell conditions are met, the software will visually plot signals on your chart, giving clear entry and exit points.
Investment Tracking: Real-time tracking of stock quantities, investments, and profit ensures a clear view of your trading performance.
Backtesting: Use this software for backtesting your strategy by analyzing how buy and sell signals would have performed historically based on the chosen indicators.
Conclusion
The FS Scorpion Tail software is a robust and flexible trading tool, allowing traders to develop custom strategies based on multiple well-known technical indicators. Its visual aid, coupled with real-time investment tracking, makes it valuable for systematic traders looking to automate or refine their trading approach.
Rolling Strategic AVWAPThe Rolling Strategic AVWAP gives you the ability to have the standard AVWAP indicators applied across all charts in all timeframes. There is no manual intervention necessary to keep all the standard VWAPs up to date. This indicator is written so that all weekends and trading holidays are taken into account so you never have any gaps or days where the indicator isn't working.
Standard rolling AVWAP indicators:
Daily
2-day
3-day
Week-to-Date
Month-to-Date
Year-to-Date
Additionally I have supplied several custom labeled AVWAP indicators that the user can adjust the date themselves
Custom Fixed AVWAP indicators:
Prior Week-to-Date
Prior Month-to-Date
Prior Year-to-Date
Fed rate decision
Inflation report
GDP report
Jobs report
3 more labeled Custom1-3
These custom locations will allow the user to anchor the VWAP to meaningful dates and times in the market. Often there are large moves due to global macro events that can give the trader an edge by referencing the VWAP to the date and time.
Labels and Display
There are options to turn on and off any of the AVWAPs, as well as turning on and off the display labels below the candles.
OneThingToRuleThemAll [v1.4]This script was created because I wanted to be able to display a contextual chart of commonly used indicators for scalping and swing traders, with the ability to control the visual representation on the charts as their cross-overs, cross-unders, or changes of state happen in real time. Additionally, I wanted the ability to control how or when they are displayed. While looking through other community projects, I found they lacked the ability to full customize the output controls and values used for these indicators.
The script leverages standard RSI/MACD/VWAP/MVWAP/EMA calculations to help a trader visually make more informed decisions on entering or exiting a trade, depending on their understanding on what the indicators represent. Paired with a table directly on the chart, it allows a trader to quickly reference values to make more informed decisions without having to look away from the price action or look through multiple indicator outputs.
The main functionality of the indicator is controlled within the settings directly on the chart. There a user can enable the visual representations, or disable, and configure how they are displayed on the charts by altering their values or style types.
Users have the ability to enable/disable visual representations of:
The indicator chart
RSI Cross-over and RSI Reversals
MACD Uptrends and Downtrends
VWAP Cross-overs and Cross-unders
VWAP Line
MVWAP Cross-overs and Cross-unders
MVWAP Line
EMA Cross-overs and Cross-unders
EMA Line
Some traders like to use these visual indications as thresholds to enter or exit trades. Its best to find out which ones work the best with the security you are trying to trade. Personally, I use the table as a reference in conjunction with the RSI chart indicators to help me decide a logical trailing stop if I am scalping. Some users might like the track EMA200 crossovers, and have visual representations on the chart for when that happens. However, users may use the other indicators in other methods, and this script provides the ability to be able to configure those both visually and by value.
The pine script code is open source and itself is fairly straightforward, it is mostly written to provide the ultimate level of control the the user of the various indicators. Please reach out to me directly if you would like a further understanding of the code and an explanation on anything that may be unclear.
Enjoy :)
-dead1.
Variety MA Cluster Filter Crosses [Loxx]What is a Cluster Filter?
One of the approaches to determining a useful signal (trend) in stream data. Small filtering (smoothing) tests applied to market quotes demonstrate the potential for creating non-lagging digital filters (indicators) that are not redrawn on the last bars.
Standard Approach
This approach is based on classical time series smoothing methods. There are lots of articles devoted to this subject both on this and other websites. The results are also classical:
1. The changes in trends are displayed with latency;
2. Better indicator (digital filter) response achieved at the expense of smoothing quality decrease;
3. Attempts to implement non-lagging indicators lead to redrawing on the last samples (bars).
And whereas traders have learned to cope with these things using persistence of economic processes and other tricks, this would be unacceptable in evaluating real-time experimental data, e.g. when testing aerostructures.
The Main Problem
It is a known fact that the majority of trading systems stop performing with the course of time, and that the indicators are only indicative over certain intervals. This can easily be explained: market quotes are not stationary. The definition of a stationary process is available in Wikipedia:
A stationary process is a stochastic process whose joint probability distribution does not change when shifted in time.
Judging by this definition, methods of analysis of stationary time series are not applicable in technical analysis. And this is understandable. A skillful market-maker entering the market will mess up all the calculations we may have made prior to that with regard to parameters of a known series of market quotes.
Even though this seems obvious, a lot of indicators are based on the theory of stationary time series analysis. Examples of such indicators are moving averages and their modifications. However, there are some attempts to create adaptive indicators. They are supposed to take into account non-stationarity of market quotes to some extent, yet they do not seem to work wonders. The attempts to "punish" the market-maker using the currently known methods of analysis of non-stationary series (wavelets, empirical modes and others) are not successful either. It looks like a certain key factor is constantly being ignored or unidentified.
The main reason for this is that the methods used are not designed for working with stream data. All (or almost all) of them were developed for analysis of the already known or, speaking in terms of technical analysis, historical data. These methods are convenient, e.g., in geophysics: you feel the earthquake, get a seismogram and then analyze it for few months. In other words, these methods are appropriate where uncertainties arising at the ends of a time series in the course of filtering affect the end result.
When analyzing experimental stream data or market quotes, we are focused on the most recent data received, rather than history. These are data that cannot be dealt with using classical algorithms.
Cluster Filter
Cluster filter is a set of digital filters approximating the initial sequence. Cluster filters should not be confused with cluster indicators.
Cluster filters are convenient when analyzing non-stationary time series in real time, in other words, stream data. It means that these filters are of principal interest not for smoothing the already known time series values, but for getting the most probable smoothed values of the new data received in real time.
Unlike various decomposition methods or simply filters of desired frequency, cluster filters create a composition or a fan of probable values of initial series which are further analyzed for approximation of the initial sequence. The input sequence acts more as a reference than the target of the analysis. The main analysis concerns values calculated by a set of filters after processing the data received.
In the general case, every filter included in the cluster has its own individual characteristics and is not related to others in any way. These filters are sometimes customized for the analysis of a stationary time series of their own which describes individual properties of the initial non-stationary time series. In the simplest case, if the initial non-stationary series changes its parameters, the filters "switch" over. Thus, a cluster filter tracks real time changes in characteristics.
Cluster Filter Design Procedure
Any cluster filter can be designed in three steps:
1. The first step is usually the most difficult one but this is where probabilistic models of stream data received are formed. The number of these models can be arbitrary large. They are not always related to physical processes that affect the approximable data. The more precisely models describe the approximable sequence, the higher the probability to get a non-lagging cluster filter.
2. At the second step, one or more digital filters are created for each model. The most general condition for joining filters together in a cluster is that they belong to the models describing the approximable sequence.
3. So, we can have one or more filters in a cluster. Consequently, with each new sample we have the sample value and one or more filter values. Thus, with each sample we have a vector or artificial noise made up of several (minimum two) values. All we need to do now is to select the most appropriate value.
An Example of a Simple Cluster Filter
For illustration, we will implement a simple cluster filter corresponding to the above diagram, using market quotes as input sequence. You can simply use closing prices of any time frame.
1. Model description. We will proceed on the assumption that:
The aproximate sequence is non-stationary, i.e. its characteristics tend to change with the course of time.
The closing price of a bar is not the actual bar price. In other words, the registered closing price of a bar is one of the noise movements, like other price movements on that bar.
The actual price or the actual value of the approximable sequence is between the closing price of the current bar and the closing price of the previous bar.
The approximable sequence tends to maintain its direction. That is, if it was growing on the previous bar, it will tend to keep on growing on the current bar.
2. Selecting digital filters. For the sake of simplicity, we take two filters:
The first filter will be a variety filter calculated based on the last closing prices using the slow period. I believe this fits well in the third assumption we specified for our model.
Since we have a non-stationary filter, we will try to also use an additional filter that will hopefully facilitate to identify changes in characteristics of the time series. I've chosen a variety filter using the fast period.
3. Selecting the appropriate value for the cluster filter.
So, with each new sample we will have the sample value (closing price), as well as the value of MA and fast filter. The closing price will be ignored according to the second assumption specified for our model. Further, we select the МА or ЕМА value based on the last assumption, i.e. maintaining trend direction:
For an uptrend, i.e. CF(i-1)>CF(i-2), we select one of the following four variants:
if CF(i-1)fastfilter(i), then CF(i)=slowfilter(i);
if CF(i-1)>slowfilter(i) and CF(i-1)slowfilter(i) and CF(i-1)>fastfilter(i), then CF(i)=MAX(slowfilter(i),fastfilter(i)).
For a downtrend, i.e. CF(i-1)slowfilter(i) and CF(i-1)>fastfilter(i), then CF(i)=MAX(slowfilter(i),fastfilter(i));
if CF(i-1)>slowfilter(i) and CF(i-1)fastfilter(i), then CF(i)=fastfilter(i);
if CF(i-1)
Multi Trend Cross Strategy TemplateToday I am sharing with the community trend cross strategy template that incorporates any combination of over 20 built in indicators. Some of these indicators are in the Pine library, and some have been custom coded and contributed over time by the beloved Pine Coder community. Identifying a trend cross is a common trend following strategy and a common custom-code request from the community. Using this template, users can now select from over 400 different potential trend combinations and setup alerts without any custom coding required. This Multi-Trend cross template has a very inclusive library of trend calculations/indicators built-in, and will plot any of the 20+ indicators/trends that you can select in the settings.
How it works : Simple trend cross strategies go long when the fast trend crosses over the slow trend, and/or go short when the fast trend crosses under the slow trend. Options for either trend direction are built-in to this strategy template. The script is also coded in a way that allows you to enable/modify pyramid settings and scale into a position over time after a trend has crossed.
Use cases : These types of strategies can reduce the volatility of returns and can help avoid large market downswings. For instance, those running a longer term trend-cross strategy may have not realized half the down swing of the bear markets or crashes in 02', 08', 20', etc. However, in other years, they may have exited the market from time to time at unfavorable points that didn't end up being a down turn, or at times the market was ranging sideways. Some also use them to reduce volatility and then add leverage to attempt to beat buy/hold of the underlying asset within an acceptable drawdown threshold.
Special thanks to @Duyck, @everget, @KivancOzbilgic and @LazyBear for coding and contributing earlier versions of some of these custom indicators in Pine.
This script incorporates all of the following indicators. Each of them can be selected and modified from within the indicator settings:
ALMA - Arnaud Legoux Moving Average
DEMA - Double Exponential Moving Average
DSMA - Deviation Scaled Moving Average - Contributed by Everget
EMA - Exponential Moving Average
HMA - Hull Moving Average
JMA - Jurik Moving Average - Contributed by Everget
KAMA - Kaufman's Adaptive Moving Average - Contributed by Everget
LSMA - Linear Regression , Least Squares Moving Average
RMA - Relative Moving Average
SMA - Simple Moving Average
SMMA - Smoothed Moving Average
Price Source - Plotted based on source selection
TEMA - Triple Exponential Moving Average
TMA - Triangular Moving Average
VAMA - Volume Adjusted Moving Average - Contributed by Duyck
VIDYA - Variable Index Dynamic Average - Contributed by KivancOzbilgic
VMA - Variable Moving Average - Contributed by LazyBear
VWMA - Volume Weighted Moving Average
WMA - Weighted Moving Average
WWMA - Welles Wilder's Moving Average
ZLEMA - Zero Lag Exponential Moving Average - Contributed by KivancOzbilgic
Disclaimer : This is not financial advice. Open-source scripts I publish in the community are largely meant to spark ideas that can be used as building blocks for part of a more robust trade management strategy. If you would like to implement a version of any script, I would recommend making significant additions/modifications to the strategy & risk management functions. If you don’t know how to program in Pine, then hire a Pine-coder. We can help!
APA-Adaptive, Ehlers Early Onset Trend [Loxx]APA-Adaptive, Ehlers Early Onset Trend is Ehlers Early Onset Trend but with Autocorrelation Periodogram Algorithm dominant cycle period input.
What is Ehlers Early Onset Trend?
The Onset Trend Detector study is a trend analyzing technical indicator developed by John F. Ehlers , based on a non-linear quotient transform. Two of Mr. Ehlers' previous studies, the Super Smoother Filter and the Roofing Filter, were used and expanded to create this new complex technical indicator. Being a trend-following analysis technique, its main purpose is to address the problem of lag that is common among moving average type indicators.
The Onset Trend Detector first applies the EhlersRoofingFilter to the input data in order to eliminate cyclic components with periods longer than, for example, 100 bars (default value, customizable via input parameters) as those are considered spectral dilation. Filtered data is then subjected to re-filtering by the Super Smoother Filter so that the noise (cyclic components with low length) is reduced to minimum. The period of 10 bars is a default maximum value for a wave cycle to be considered noise; it can be customized via input parameters as well. Once the data is cleared of both noise and spectral dilation, the filter processes it with the automatic gain control algorithm which is widely used in digital signal processing. This algorithm registers the most recent peak value and normalizes it; the normalized value slowly decays until the next peak swing. The ratio of previously filtered value to the corresponding peak value is then quotiently transformed to provide the resulting oscillator. The quotient transform is controlled by the K coefficient: its allowed values are in the range from -1 to +1. K values close to 1 leave the ratio almost untouched, those close to -1 will translate it to around the additive inverse, and those close to zero will collapse small values of the ratio while keeping the higher values high.
Indicator values around 1 signify uptrend and those around -1, downtrend.
What is an adaptive cycle, and what is Ehlers Autocorrelation Periodogram Algorithm?
From his Ehlers' book Cycle Analytics for Traders Advanced Technical Trading Concepts by John F. Ehlers , 2013, page 135:
"Adaptive filters can have several different meanings. For example, Perry Kaufman’s adaptive moving average ( KAMA ) and Tushar Chande’s variable index dynamic average ( VIDYA ) adapt to changes in volatility . By definition, these filters are reactive to price changes, and therefore they close the barn door after the horse is gone.The adaptive filters discussed in this chapter are the familiar Stochastic , relative strength index ( RSI ), commodity channel index ( CCI ), and band-pass filter.The key parameter in each case is the look-back period used to calculate the indicator. This look-back period is commonly a fixed value. However, since the measured cycle period is changing, it makes sense to adapt these indicators to the measured cycle period. When tradable market cycles are observed, they tend to persist for a short while.Therefore, by tuning the indicators to the measure cycle period they are optimized for current conditions and can even have predictive characteristics.
The dominant cycle period is measured using the Autocorrelation Periodogram Algorithm. That dominant cycle dynamically sets the look-back period for the indicators. I employ my own streamlined computation for the indicators that provide smoother and easier to interpret outputs than traditional methods. Further, the indicator codes have been modified to remove the effects of spectral dilation.This basically creates a whole new set of indicators for your trading arsenal."
Double SupertrendThis strategy is based on a custom indicator that was created based on the Supertrend indicator. At its core, there are always 2 super trend indicators with different factors to reduce market noise (false signals).
The strategy/indicator has some parameters to improve the signals and filters.
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
☑ Show Indicators
This option will enable/disable the Supertrend indicators on the chart.
☑ Length
The length will be used on the Supertrend Indicator to calculate its values.
☑ Dev Fast
The fast deviation or factor from one of the super trend indicators. This will be the leading indicator for entry signals, as well as for the exit signals.
☑ Dev Slow
The slow deviation or factor from one of the super trend indicators. This will be the confirmation indicator for entry and exit signals.
☑ Exit Type
It's possible to select from 4 options for the exit signals. Exit signals always take profit target.
☑ ⥹ Reversals
This option will make the strategy/indicator calculate the exit signals based on the difference between the given period's highest and lowest candle value (see Period on this list). It's displayed on the chart with the cross. As it's possible to verify in the image below, there are multiple exit spots for every entry.
☑ ⥹ ATR
Using ATR as a base indicator for exit signals will make the strategy/indicator place limit/stop orders. Candle High + ATR for longs, Candle Low - ATR for shorts. The strategy will show the ATR level for take profit and stick with it until the next signal. This way, the take profit value remains based on the candle of the entry signal.
☑ ⥹ Fast Supertrend
With this option selected, the exit signals will be based on the Fast Supertsignal value, mirrored to make a profit.
☑ ⥹ Slow Supertrend
With this option selected, the exit signals will be based on the Slow Supertsignal value, which is mirrored to take profit.
☑ Period
This will represent the number of candles used on the exit signals when Reversals is selected as Exit Type. It's also used to calculate the gradient used on the Fills and Supertrend signals.
☑ Multiplier
It's used on the take profit when the ATR option is selected on the Exit Type.
STRATEGY
☑ Use The Strategy
This will enable/disable the strategy to show the trades calculations.
☑ Show Use Long/Short Entries
Option to make the strategy show/use Long or Short signals. Available only if Use The Strategy is enabled
☑ Show Use Exit Long/Short
Option to make the strategy show/use Exit Long or Short signals (valid when Reversals option is selected on the Exit Type). Available only if Use The Strategy is enabled
☑ Show Use Add Long/Short
Option to make the strategy show/use Add Long or Short signals. With this option enabled, the strategy will place multiple trades in the same direction, almost the same concept as a pyramiding parameter. It's based on the Fast Supersignal when the candle fails to cross and reverses. Available only if Use The Strategy is enabled
☑ Trades Date Start/End
The date range that the strategy will check the market data and make the trades
HOW TO USE
It's very straightforward. A long signal will appear as a green arrow with a text Long below it. A short signal will appear as a red arrow with a text Short above it. It's ideal to wait for the candle to finish to validate the signal.
The exit signals are optional but give a good idea of the configuration used when backtesting. Each market and timeframe will have its own configuration for the best results. On average, sticking to ATR as an exit signal will have less risk than the other options.
☑ Entry Signals
Follow the arrows with Long/Short texts on them. Wait for the signal candle to close to validate the entry.
☑ Exit Signals
Use them to close your position or to trail stop your orders and maximize profits. Select the exit type suitable for each timeframe and market
☑ Add Entries
It's possible to increase the position following the add margin/contracts based on the Add signals. Not mandatory, but may work as reentries or late entries using the same signal.
☑ What about Stop Loss?
The stop-loss levels were not included as a separated signal because it's already in the chart. There are some possible ideas for the stop loss:
☑⥹ Candle High/Low (2nd recommend option)
When it's a Long signal from the entry signal candle, the stop loss can be the Low value of the same candle. Very tight stop loss in some cases, depending on the candle range
☑⥹ Local Top/Bottom
Selecting the local top/bottom as stop loss will give the strategy more room for false breakouts or reversals, keeping the trade open and minimizing noises. Increases the risk
☑⥹ Fast Supertrend (1st recommend option)
The fast supertrend can be used as stop-loss as well. making it a moving level and working close to trail stop management
☑⥹ Fixed Percentage
It's possible to use a fixed risk percentage for the trades, making the risk easier to control and project. Since the market volatility is not fixed, this may affect the accuracy of the trades
☑⥹ Based on the ATR (3rd recommend option)
When the exit type option ATR is selected, it will display the take profit level for that entry. Just mirror that value and put it as stop-loss, or multiply that amount by 1.5 to have more room for market noise.
EXAMPLE CONFIGURATIONS
Here are some configuration ideas for some markets (all of them are from crypto, especially futures markets)
BTCUSDT 15min - Default configuration
BTCUSDT 1h - Length 10 | Dev Fast 3 | Dev Slow 4 | Exit Type ATR | Period 50 | Multiplier 1
BTCUSDT 4h - Length 10 | Dev Fast 2 | Dev Slow 4 | Exit Type ATR | Period 50 | Multiplier 1
ETHUSDT 15min - Length 20 | Dev Fast 1 | Dev Slow 3 | Exit Type Fast Supertrend | Period 50 | Multiplier 1
IOTAUSDT 15min - Length 10 | Dev Fast 1 | Dev Slow 2 | Exit Type Slow Supertrend | Period 50 | Multiplier 1
OMGUSDT 15min - Length 10 | Dev Fast 1 | Dev Slow 4 | Exit Type Slow Supertrend | Period 50 | Multiplier 1
VETUSDT 15min - Length 10 | Dev Fast 3 | Dev Slow 4 | Exit Type Slow Supertrend | Period 50 | Multiplier 1
HOW TO FIND OTHER CONFIGURATIONS
Here are some steps to find suitable configurations
select a market and time frame
enable the Use This Strategy option on the strategy
open the strategy tester panel and select the performance summary
open the strategy configuration and go to properties
change the balance to the same price of the symbol (example: BTCUSDT 60.000, use 60.000 as balance)
go back to the inputs tab and keep changing the parameters until you see the net profit be positive and bigger than the absolute value of the drawdown
in case you can't find a suitable configuration, try other timeframes
Since the tester reflects what happened in the past candles, it's not guaranteed to give the same results. However, this indicator/Strategy can be used with other indicators as a leading signal or confirmation signal.
AlertiTI can't be glued to all charts on all tickers all the time. I have a life you know, lol.
So in the spirit of getting fresh air, running errands, working and having fun with family & friends, I setup this AlertiT script.
Three indicators: RSI, SMA and Momentum are used in this script alert.
The alert will be triggered if any of the indicators crosses a specified input.
The message will contain the name of the indicator and its current value.
The default is 13 SMA, 9 RSI +75:-25 and 11 Momentum.
I provided an input in the dialogue box so the variables can be adjusted to suit your needs.
Source is open, high, low, close.
Do your own due diligence, your risk is 100% your responsibility. You win some or you learn some. Consider being charitable with some of your profit to help humankind. Small incremental steps work : If you double a penny a day for a month it = $5,368,709. Good luck and happy trading friends...
*3x lucky 7s of trading*
7pt Trading compass:
Price action, entry/exit
Volume average/direction
Trend, patterns, momentum
Newsworthy current events
Revenue
Earnings
Balance sheet
7 Common mistakes:
+5% portfolio trades, risk management
Beware of analysts motives
Emotions & Opinions
FOMO : bad timing
Lack of planning & discipline
Forgetting restraint
Obdurate repetitive errors, no adaptation
7 Important tools:
Trading View app!, Brokerage UI
Accurate indicators & settings
Wide screen monitor/s
Trading log (pencil & graph paper)
Big organized desk
Reading books, playing chess
Sorted watch-list
Checkout my indicators:
Fibonacci VIP - volume
Fibonacci MA7 - price
pi RSI - trend momentum
TTC - trend channel
AlertiT - notification
www.tradingview.com
[blackcat] L2 Ehlers Voss Filter StrategyLevel: 2
Background
John F. Ehlers introuced Voss Filter Strategy in Aug, 2019.
Function
John Ehlers’ mining of the digital signal processing literature space in his article in this issue, “A Peek Into The Future,” brings us another interesting tool for seeing a bit below the noise surrounding price series to better locate turning points. In “A Peek Into The Future” in Aug, 2019, John Ehlers describes the calculation of a new filter that could help signal cyclical turning points in markets. As described by Dr. Ehlers, the filter has a negative group delay and while an indicator based on it cannot actually see into the future, it may provide the trader with signals in advance of other indicators. Noticing that the indicator accurately tracks the market’s peaks and valleys, Ehlers suggests that simple crossovers of the forward-looking Voss predictor with the two-pole band-pass filter may become the basis of a trading system. Having looked at the paper by Henning Voss, I personally appreciate Ehlers’ ability to reduce the calculus of the Voss presentation to six simple lines of code. I thought that the predictive nature of the VossPredictor would be a good candidate to use for one of the current favorite areas of exploration, self-tuning indicators.
Key Signal
Voss --> Ehlers Voss Filter fast line
Trigger --> Ehlers Voss Filter slow line
Pros and Cons
100% John F. Ehlers definition translation, even variable names are the same. This help readers who would like to use pine to read his book.
Remarks
The 93th script for Blackcat1402 John F. Ehlers Week publication.
Readme
In real life, I am a prolific inventor. I have successfully applied for more than 60 international and regional patents in the past 12 years. But in the past two years or so, I have tried to transfer my creativity to the development of trading strategies. Tradingview is the ideal platform for me. I am selecting and contributing some of the hundreds of scripts to publish in Tradingview community. Welcome everyone to interact with me to discuss these interesting pine scripts.
The scripts posted are categorized into 5 levels according to my efforts or manhours put into these works.
Level 1 : interesting script snippets or distinctive improvement from classic indicators or strategy. Level 1 scripts can usually appear in more complex indicators as a function module or element.
Level 2 : composite indicator/strategy. By selecting or combining several independent or dependent functions or sub indicators in proper way, the composite script exhibits a resonance phenomenon which can filter out noise or fake trading signal to enhance trading confidence level.
Level 3 : comprehensive indicator/strategy. They are simple trading systems based on my strategies. They are commonly containing several or all of entry signal, close signal, stop loss, take profit, re-entry, risk management, and position sizing techniques. Even some interesting fundamental and mass psychological aspects are incorporated.
Level 4 : script snippets or functions that do not disclose source code. Interesting element that can reveal market laws and work as raw material for indicators and strategies. If you find Level 1~2 scripts are helpful, Level 4 is a private version that took me far more efforts to develop.
Level 5 : indicator/strategy that do not disclose source code. private version of Level 3 script with my accumulated script processing skills or a large number of custom functions. I had a private function library built in past two years. Level 5 scripts use many of them to achieve private trading strategy.
[blackcat] L2 Ehlers Dominant Cycle Tuned Bandpass FilterLevel: 2
Background
John F. Ehlers introuced his Dominant Cycle Tuned Bandpass Filter Strategy in Mar, 2008.
Function
In "Measuring Cycle Periods", author John Ehlers presents a very interesting technique of measuring dominant market cycle periods by means of multiple bandpass filtering. By utilizing an approach similar to audio equalizers, the signal (here, the price series) is fed into a set of simple second-order infinite impulse response bandpass filters. Filters are tuned to 8,9,10,...,50 periods. The filter with the highest output represents the dominant cycle. A full-featured formula that implements a high-pass filter and a six-tap low-pass Fir filter on input, then 42 parallel Iir band-pass filters.
I've coded John Ehlers' filter bank to measure the dominant cycle (DC) and the sine and cosine filter components in pine v4 for TradingView, based on John Ehlers' article in this issue, "Measuring Cycle Periods." The CycleFilterDC function plots and returns the DC series and its components, so it's a trivial matter to make use of them in a trading strategy.
Based on John Ehlers' article, "Measuring Cycle Periods," he chose to implement the dominant cycle-tuned bandpass filter response to test Ehlers' suggestion to use the sine and cosine crossovers as buy and sell signals. If the sine closely follows the price pattern as suggested, and the cosine is an effective leading function of the sine, then it seems to make sense that a crossover implementation would work well (Personally, what I observed this is not so accurated as his claims).
What he discovered in his tests was that crossovers happened at frequent intervals, even when price has not moved significantly. This leads to a higher percentage of losing trades, particularly when spread, slippage, and commissions are accounted for. Nevertheless, the cosine crossover was quite effective at identifying reversals very early in many cases, so this indicator could prove quite effective when used alongside other indicators. In particular, the use of an indicator to confirm a certain level of recent volatility, as well as an indicator to confirm significant rate of change, could prove quite helpful.
Key Signal
CosineLine--> Ehlers Dominant Cycle Tuned Bandpass Filter Strategy fast line
SineLine--> Ehlers Dominant Cycle Tuned Bandpass Filter Strategy slow line
Pros and Cons
100% John F. Ehlers definition translation, even variable names are the same. This help readers who would like to use pine to read his book.
Remarks
The 72th script for Blackcat1402 John F. Ehlers Week publication.
NOTE: Although Dr. Ehlers think high of Cosine and Sine wave indicator and trading strategy, my study and trading experience indicated it did not work that well as many other oscillator indicators. However, I would like to keep the original code of Dr. Ehlers for anyone who want to make a deep dive into this kind of indicator or strategy with Cosine and Sine wave.
Readme
In real life, I am a prolific inventor. I have successfully applied for more than 60 international and regional patents in the past 12 years. But in the past two years or so, I have tried to transfer my creativity to the development of trading strategies. Tradingview is the ideal platform for me. I am selecting and contributing some of the hundreds of scripts to publish in Tradingview community. Welcome everyone to interact with me to discuss these interesting pine scripts.
The scripts posted are categorized into 5 levels according to my efforts or manhours put into these works.
Level 1 : interesting script snippets or distinctive improvement from classic indicators or strategy. Level 1 scripts can usually appear in more complex indicators as a function module or element.
Level 2 : composite indicator/strategy. By selecting or combining several independent or dependent functions or sub indicators in proper way, the composite script exhibits a resonance phenomenon which can filter out noise or fake trading signal to enhance trading confidence level.
Level 3 : comprehensive indicator/strategy. They are simple trading systems based on my strategies. They are commonly containing several or all of entry signal, close signal, stop loss, take profit, re-entry, risk management, and position sizing techniques. Even some interesting fundamental and mass psychological aspects are incorporated.
Level 4 : script snippets or functions that do not disclose source code. Interesting element that can reveal market laws and work as raw material for indicators and strategies. If you find Level 1~2 scripts are helpful, Level 4 is a private version that took me far more efforts to develop.
Level 5 : indicator/strategy that do not disclose source code. private version of Level 3 script with my accumulated script processing skills or a large number of custom functions. I had a private function library built in past two years. Level 5 scripts use many of them to achieve private trading strategy.
