Top and Bottom Probability
The top and bottom probability oscillator is an educational indicator that estimates the probability of a local top or bottom using four ingredients:
price extension since the last RSI overbought/oversold,
time since that OB/OS event,
RSI divergence strength,
Directional Momentum Velocity (DMV) — a normalized, signed trend velocity.
It plots RSI, two probability histograms (Top %, Bottom %), and an optional 0–100 velocity gauge.
How to read it
RSI & Levels: Standard RSI with OB/OS lines (70/30 by default).
Prob Top (%): Red histogram, 0–100. Higher values suggest increasing risk of a local top after an RSI overbought anchor.
Prob Bottom (%): Green histogram, 0–100. Higher values suggest increasing chance of a local bottom after an RSI oversold anchor.
Velocity (0–100): Optional line. Above 50 = positive/upward DMV; below 50 = negative/downward DMV. DMV pushes Top risk when trending down and Bottom chance when trending up.
These are composite, scale-free scores, not certainties or trade signals.
What the probabilities consider
Price Delta: How far price has moved beyond the last OB (for tops) or below the last OS (for bottoms). More extension → higher probability.
Time Since OB/OS: Longer time since the anchor → higher probability (until capped by the “Time Normalization (bars)” input).
Oscillator Divergence: RSI pulling away from its last OB/OS reading in the opposite direction implies weakening momentum and increases probability.
Directional Momentum Velocity (DMV):
Computes a regression slope of hlc3 vs. bar index, normalized by ATR, then squashed with tanh.
Downward DMV boosts Top probability; upward DMV boosts Bottom probability.
Toggle the velocity plot and adjust its sensitivity with Velocity Lookback, ATR Length, and Velocity Gain.
All four terms are blended with user-set weights. If Normalize Weights is ON, weights are rescaled to sum to 1.
Inputs (most useful)
RSI Length / OB / OS: Core RSI setup.
Time Normalization (bars): Sets how quickly the “time since OB/OS” term ramps from 0→1.
Weights:
Price Delta, Time Since OB/OS, Osc Divergence, Directional Velocity.
Turn Normalize Weights ON to keep the blend consistent when you experiment.
Settings:
Velocity Lookback: Window for slope estimation (shorter = more reactive).
ATR Length: Normalizes slope so symbols/timeframes are comparable.
Velocity Gain: Steepens or softens the tanh curve (higher = punchier extremes).
Show Velocity (0–100): Toggles the DMV display.
Tip: If you prefer momentum measured on RSI rather than price, in the DMV block replace hlc3 with rsi (concept stays identical).
Practical tips
Use Top/Bottom % as context, not triggers. Combine with structure (S/R), trend filters, and risk management.
On strong trends, expect the opposite probability (e.g., Top % during an uptrend) to stay suppressed longer.
Calibrate weights: e.g., raise Osc Divergence on mean-reversion symbols; raise Velocity in trending markets.
For lower noise: lengthen Velocity Lookback and ATR Length, or reduce Velocity Gain.
Поиск скриптов по запросу "oscillator"
MVRV and RSI Std DevThis indicator provides a comprehensive, long-term view of market risk and opportunity for Bitcoin by combining fundamental on-chain data with classic momentum analysis.
How It Works:
The oscillator's value is calculated by multiplying two key metrics:
MVRV Ratio: An on-chain metric that indicates if the market price is "fair," "overvalued," or "undervalued" relative to the average price at which all coins last moved.
Weekly RSI: The standard Relative Strength Index on a weekly timeframe to measure long-term market momentum and identify overbought/oversold conditions.
Key Features:
Adaptive Risk Bands: Instead of fixed "overbought/oversold" levels, this indicator uses dynamic bands based on a long-term 4 year moving average and standard deviation. These bands automatically adjust to the market's changing volatility and cyclical nature, ensuring the risk/reward zones remain relevant over time.
Gradient Coloring: The oscillator line is colored on a smooth gradient from deep green (high reward/low risk) to bright red (high risk/low reward). This provides an intuitive, at-a-glance visualization of the market's "temperature."
WaveTrend [LazyBear] with Long/Short LabelsWaveTrend Oscillator with Entry Signals (LONG/SHORT) – Advanced Edition
This indicator is based on the renowned WaveTrend Oscillator by LazyBear, a favorite among professional traders for spotting trend reversals with precision.
🚀 Features:
Original WaveTrend formula with dual-line structure (WT1 & WT2).
Customizable overbought and oversold zones for visual clarity.
Automatic LONG and SHORT signals plotted directly on the chart:
✅ LONG: When WT1 crosses above WT2 below the oversold zone.
❌ SHORT: When WT1 crosses below WT2 above the overbought zone.
Momentum histogram shows strength of market moves.
Fully optimized for Pine Script v5 and lightweight across all timeframes.
🔍 How to use:
Combine with support/resistance levels or candlestick reversal patterns.
Works best on 15min, 1H, or 4H charts.
Suitable for all markets: crypto, stocks, forex, indices.
📊 Ideal for:
Traders seeking clean, reliable entry signals.
Reversal strategies with technical confluence.
Visual confirmation of WaveTrend crossovers without manual interpretation.
💡 Pro Tip: Combine with EMA or RSI filters to further enhance accuracy.
Money Maykah -- MA slopesThe idea behind this script is to play with the idea of summing integration (IT) and differentiation (DT) of a T3 signal (smoothed with sma or ema). The sum is IT + DT.
Obviously this is not exactly these mathematical concepts, but what occurs is that it generates an oscillator that somewhat gets rid of skew in the oscillations in the market.
There is a signal IDE which sums the full IT + DT which shows a longer term oscillation. This will have a much larger range of numbers in amplitude so it may be a little annoying to move the scale around by hand. I don't care to fix this right now but I'm sure it can be done quite easily for someone else.
I was also playing with the idea of using a Normalization oscillator with this and seeing how the two compare and whether they could be used in some sort of strategy. Both have unpredictable behaviors but hey the market is unpredictable so have at it!
SMOOTHED RSI SWITCHThis more complex take on the traditional RSI provides clearer entry and exit points and looks beyond just overbought/oversold levels, altogether creating a more robust trading strategy.
The RSI is smoothed by the Hull MA with adjustable periods.
Although a variety of strategies can be developed using this indicator. I intended its most profitable use be as follows:
Entries are to be taken when the oscillator flips from red to clear and/or directly from red to green. Sell/short positions are to be take when the oscillator flips from green to clear and/or directly from green to red.
[BMAX] DT Color(ENGLISH)
This indicator is a variation of the original DT Oscillator that uses Stochastic and RSI calculations to find momentum opportunities - in this version it will print a background color of your choice for the overbought and oversold conditions.
(PORTUGUÊS)
Este indicador é uma variação do indicador DT Oscillator original que utiliza Estocástico e cálculos do RSI para encontrar oportunidades em "momentum" - nesta versão ele irá apresentar no fundo do gráfico (com cor a sua escolha) as regiões de sobrecompra e sobrevenda.
Riley's CMOAre you familiar with Chande Momentum Oscillator? (CMO)
Riley's CMO is just an improvement over the old one.
It compares current close to previous median instead of close to close.
The result?
A smoother oscillator with less false signals.
Try comparing Riley's CMO to CMO.
You will notice the difference.
Ranked TickThe NYSE TICK is, very simply, the number of stocks ticking down or up at any given time. It is, therefore, an internal indication of buying and selling pressure. By itself, it can be difficult to interpret. This “Ranked Tick” makes the TICK an oscillator that varies from 0 to 100. This indicator can be of great help in determining when the market is overbought or oversold.
This oscillator is a percentile ranking of the high + low of the current bar of the TICK compared to the recent values of the same sum over a certain number of bars, which the user can set as an input, the “Rank Length”. This indicator can be of great help in determining when the market is overbought or oversold.
It was conceived by SergioT for TradeStation, and he was gracious enough to share his TradeStation script with all the traders at elliottwavetrader.net. I transcribed it into Pine Script so that everyone at TradingView could also have it.
Full Stochastic (TC2000-style EMA 5,3,3)Full Stochastic (TC2000-style EMA 5,3,3) computes a Full Stochastic oscillator matching TC2000’s settings with Average Type = Exponential.
Raw %K is calculated over K=5, then smoothed by an EMA with Slowing=3 to form the Full %K, and %D is an EMA of Full %K with D=3.
Plots:
%K in black, %D in red, with 80/20 overbought/oversold levels in green.
This setup emphasizes momentum shifts while applying EMA smoothing at both stages to reduce noise and maintain responsiveness. Inputs are adjustable to suit different symbols and timeframes.
Gold 3min Trading Pro [XAU/USD]# Gold 3min Trading Pro - User Guide
## Overview
This is a professional scalping indicator specifically designed for Gold (XAU/USD) trading on 3-minute timeframes. It combines multiple technical analysis methods to provide high-probability entry signals for short-term trading.
## Key Features
### 1. Multi-Timeframe Trend Analysis
- **Major Trend**: Analyzes 15min, 1H, and 4H timeframes using moving averages
- **Short-term Trend**: Focuses on 3-minute price action and moving average alignment
- **Trend Strength**: Rated from 1-3 based on timeframe agreement
### 2. Core Indicators
- **RSI (9-period)**: Momentum oscillator for overbought/oversold conditions
- **Stochastic (9-period)**: %K and %D lines for entry timing
- **MACD**: Additional trend confirmation
- **Volume Analysis**: Detects volume spikes for signal validation
- **ATR-based Volatility Filter**: Ensures adequate market movement
### 3. Signal Types
- **Primary Signals**: Green triangles (LONG) and Red triangles (SHORT)
- **Enhanced Signals**: Stronger signals with multiple confirmations
- **Confirmation Signals**: Small circles for stochastic crossovers
## How to Use
### 1. Setup
- **Timeframe**: Use on 3-minute charts for Gold (XAU/USD)
- **Settings**: Default settings are optimized for Gold scalping
- **Session Filter**: Enable for London/New York sessions (recommended)
### 2. Entry Conditions
#### LONG Entry:
- Major trend is bullish (green background)
- Short-term trend is up or neutral
- RSI shows bullish momentum
- Stochastic indicates oversold recovery
- Volume spike confirmation
- Strong price action (bullish candle)
#### SHORT Entry:
- Major trend is bearish (red background)
- Short-term trend is down or neutral
- RSI shows bearish momentum
- Stochastic indicates overbought reversal
- Volume spike confirmation
- Strong price action (bearish candle)
### 3. Trade Management
- **Quick Target**: 50% of ATR-based calculation
- **Main Target**: Full ATR-based target
- **Stop Loss**: 60% of ATR below/above entry
- **Time Limit**: Exit if no progress within 20 bars (60 minutes)
### 4. Risk Management
- **Position Size**: Risk 1-2% of account per trade
- **Maximum Trades**: 3-5 trades per session
- **Avoid**: Low volatility periods and major news events
## Visual Elements
### Background Colors
- **Light Green**: Bullish major trend
- **Light Red**: Bearish major trend
- **Yellow**: Volume spike detected
- **Intense Colors**: Very strong trend alignment
### Chart Indicators
- **RSI Line (Blue)**: Main momentum indicator
- **Stochastic %K (Orange)**: Fast stochastic line
- **Stochastic %D (Yellow)**: Slow stochastic line
- **Horizontal Lines**: 70 (overbought), 30 (oversold), 50 (midline)
### Information Table (Top Right)
- Total signal count and performance statistics
- Current market conditions and trend strength
- RSI levels and volatility status
- Trading session information
- Last signal timing
## Alert System
### Standard Alerts
- **Scalp Long Signal**: Basic long entry signal
- **Scalp Short Signal**: Basic short entry signal
- **Premium Signals**: High-quality signals with strong confirmation
- **Trend Reversal**: Major trend change notifications
### Alert Setup
1. Right-click on chart → "Add Alert"
2. Select desired alert condition
3. Configure notification method (popup, email, webhook)
4. Set alert frequency to "Once Per Bar Close"
## Best Practices
### 1. Trading Sessions
- **Optimal**: London-NY overlap (3:00-5:00 PM EST)
- **Good**: London session (2:00-11:00 AM EST)
- **Avoid**: Asian session and major news releases
### 2. Market Conditions
- **Best**: Trending markets with normal to high volatility
- **Moderate**: Ranging markets during active sessions
- **Avoid**: Extremely low volatility or choppy conditions
### 3. Confirmation Rules
- Wait for signal triangle to appear
- Check that major trend aligns with signal direction
- Verify volume spike (yellow background)
- Ensure volatility is adequate (check info table)
### 4. Entry Timing
- Enter immediately after signal confirmation
- Use market orders for scalping speed
- Set stop loss and take profit levels immediately
## Settings Customization
### Essential Settings
- **MA Type**: EMA (recommended) or SMA
- **RSI Length**: 9 (default, can adjust 5-14)
- **Volume Threshold**: 1.8 (higher = fewer but stronger signals)
- **Volatility Filter**: Keep enabled for better signal quality
### Display Options
- **Show Scalping Signals**: Main entry signals
- **Show Performance Stats**: Information table
- **Show Trend Filter**: Background trend colors
- **Use Time Filter**: Session-based filtering
## Performance Optimization
### 1. Backtesting Tips
- Test on different market conditions
- Analyze win rate and average profit/loss
- Adjust settings based on historical performance
### 2. Signal Quality
- Higher trend strength (2-3) = better signals
- Volume confirmation improves success rate
- Enhanced signals have higher probability
### 3. Risk Control
- Never risk more than 2% per trade
- Use proper position sizing
- Stop trading after 3 consecutive losses
## Troubleshooting
### Common Issues
1. **No Signals**: Check volatility filter and session timing
2. **Too Many Signals**: Increase volume threshold or enable filters
3. **Poor Performance**: Verify timeframe (must be 3-minute) and symbol (XAU/USD)
### Support
- Ensure TradingView Pro+ subscription for multi-timeframe data
- Verify Gold symbol matches your broker's format
- Update to latest TradingView version
This indicator is designed for experienced traders familiar with scalping techniques and risk management. Always practice on demo accounts before live trading.
Stochastic with Z-Score📊 Stochastic with Z-Score
This custom indicator enhances the classic Stochastic Oscillator by applying Z-Score normalization to both %K and %D lines, helping traders identify statistically significant overbought and oversold conditions based on historical behavior.
🔍 Key Features:
Z-Score Normalization of %K and %D:
Detects deviations from the mean using standard deviation, offering a more dynamic and statistically grounded way to interpret momentum.
Signal Confirmation Filters:
✅ Trend Filter using 200 EMA: Only trade in the direction of the prevailing trend.
✅ Volume Filter: Confirms signals only when volume exceeds the moving average, reducing noise.
Buy & Sell Signals:
📈 Buy: Triggered when the Z-score of %K crosses above a negative threshold, %D is still below that threshold, and the candle is bullish.
📉 Sell: Triggered when the Z-score of %K crosses below a positive threshold, %D is still above that threshold, and the candle is bearish.
Signals are further filtered by trend and volume if enabled.
Customizable Thresholds & Settings:
Control Z-score length, thresholds, Stochastic lengths, and filter settings.
Visual Enhancements:
Colored histogram based on Z-score levels.
Shaded background in overbought/oversold zones.
Clear “Buy” and “Sell” labels plotted directly on the chart.
Alerts Included:
Set alerts on confirmed buy and sell signals for real-time notifications.
📘 How to Use:
Use this indicator on any timeframe or asset.
Enable or disable trend and volume filters depending on your strategy.
Use signals in confluence with price action or other indicators.
Adjust Z-score thresholds for more or fewer signals based on your risk profile.
⚠️ Note: This is an indicator, not a strategy. Always test signals on historical data and in simulation before live trading.
RSI Crossover Signal Companion - Alerts + Visuals🔷 RSI Crossover Signal Companion — Alerts + Visuals
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is a momentum oscillator that measures the speed and change of recent price movements. It helps traders identify overbought or oversold conditions, possible trend reversals, and momentum strength.
This utility builds on TradingView’s classic Relative Strength Index (RSI) by adding real-time alerts and triangle markers when the RSI crosses its own moving average — a common technique for early momentum detection.
It is designed as a lightweight, visual companion tool for traders using RSI/MA crossover logic in manual or semi-automated strategies.
🔍 Features
✅ Preserves the full original RSI layout, including:
• Gradient fill and overbought/oversold zones
• Standard RSI input settings (length, source, etc.)
• MA smoothing options with user-defined type and length
🔺 Adds visual triangle markers:
🔼 Up triangle when RSI crosses above its MA
🔽 Down triangle when RSI crosses below its MA
📢 Built-in alerts for RSI/MA crosses:
“RSI Crossed Above MA”
“RSI Crossed Below MA”
📈 How to Use
This script is ideal for:
• Spotting early momentum shifts
• Confirming entries or exits in other systems (price action, trendlines, breakouts)
• Building alert-based automation (webhooks, bots, etc.)
Popular use cases:
• Combine with trend indicators like MA200 or MA12
• Use in confluence with price structure and divergence
• Validate breakout moves with momentum confirmation
⚙️ Customization
RSI length, MA length, MA type, and source are fully adjustable
Triangle marker size, shape, and color can be edited under Style
Alerts are pre-built and ready for use
Dual Momentum OSCOverview:
Momentum OSC is a dual-layered momentum oscillator that blends multi-timeframe momentum readings with moving average crossovers for deeper insight into trend acceleration and exhaustion. Perfect for confirming trend strength or spotting early shifts in momentum.
Features:
✅ Two separate momentum streams with customizable timeframes
✅ Smoothing via moving averages for both momenta
✅ Cross-timeframe momentum structure for confirmation and divergence
✅ Color-coded areas for intuitive visual interpretation
✅ Optional crossover markers to signal bullish/bearish momentum shifts
How It Works:
The script calculates two momentum values by comparing current price sources against lagged values across separate timeframes. Each is smoothed with a moving average to filter noise. The difference between momentum and its moving average forms a core component of trend strength confirmation. Optional visual circles mark bullish or bearish crossovers.
Customizable Inputs:
Timeframes, sources, lengths, and MA periods for both momentum streams
Toggle to display momentum cross signals (circles)
Works on any asset or timeframe
Modified RSIModified RSI (Round Number RSI)
Category: Oscillator / Momentum
Description
The Modified RSI (Round Number RSI) is an enhanced version of the classic Relative Strength Index (RSI), designed to provide clearer and more structured signals by rounding its values to whole numbers. This modification helps traders filter out noise, making trend analysis and overbought/oversold conditions easier to interpret.
Key Features:
✔ Rounded RSI Values – Instead of fluctuating with decimals, this RSI rounds values to whole numbers (e.g., 30, 50, 70) for clearer decision-making.
✔ Easier Signal Interpretation – Helps traders identify key RSI levels without distractions from small fluctuations.
✔ Customizable Lookback Period – Allows adjustment of RSI sensitivity to fit different trading strategies.
✔ Works on All Timeframes & Assets – Can be applied to stocks, forex, crypto, and futures.
How to Use It:
📌 Overbought & Oversold Levels:
RSI ≥ 70 → Market may be overbought (potential reversal or correction).
RSI ≤ 30 → Market may be oversold (potential buying opportunity).
📌 Trend Confirmation:
RSI staying above 50 signals bullish momentum.
RSI staying below 50 signals bearish momentum.
📌 Divergence Trading:
Price makes a new high, but RSI does not → Bearish Divergence (Possible Downtrend).
Price makes a new low, but RSI does not → Bullish Divergence (Possible Uptrend).
Best Used For:
📈 Day Traders & Swing Traders looking for simplified RSI signals.
📉 Trend Confirmation with moving averages or volume analysis.
⚡ Confluence Trading with support/resistance zones.
Why Use This Over Traditional RSI?
🔹 Removes unnecessary noise by rounding RSI values.
🔹 Helps traders focus on key levels (30, 50, 70).
🔹 Reduces decision fatigue for fast-paced trading.
Larry Connors RSI 3 StrategyThe Larry Connors RSI 3 Strategy is a short-term mean-reversion trading strategy. It combines a moving average filter and a modified version of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) to identify potential buying opportunities in an uptrend. The strategy assumes that a short-term pullback within a long-term uptrend is an opportunity to buy at a discount before the trend resumes.
Components of the Strategy:
200-Day Simple Moving Average (SMA): The price must be above the 200-day SMA, indicating a long-term uptrend.
2-Period RSI: This is a very short-term RSI, used to measure the speed and magnitude of recent price changes. The standard RSI is typically calculated over 14 periods, but Connors uses just 2 periods to capture extreme overbought and oversold conditions.
Three-Day RSI Drop: The RSI must decline for three consecutive days, with the first drop occurring from an RSI reading above 60.
RSI Below 10: After the three-day drop, the RSI must reach a level below 10, indicating a highly oversold condition.
Buy Condition: All the above conditions must be satisfied to trigger a buy order.
Sell Condition: The strategy closes the position when the RSI rises above 70, signaling that the asset is overbought.
Who Was Larry Connors?
Larry Connors is a trader, author, and founder of Connors Research, a firm specializing in quantitative trading research. He is best known for developing strategies that focus on short-term market movements. Connors co-authored several popular books, including "Street Smarts: High Probability Short-Term Trading Strategies" with Linda Raschke, which has become a staple among traders seeking reliable, rule-based strategies. His research often emphasizes simplicity and robust testing, which appeals to both retail and institutional traders.
Scientific Foundations
The Relative Strength Index (RSI), originally developed by J. Welles Wilder in 1978, is a momentum oscillator that measures the speed and change of price movements. It oscillates between 0 and 100 and is typically used to identify overbought or oversold conditions in an asset. However, the use of a 2-period RSI in Connors' strategy is unconventional, as most traders rely on longer periods, such as 14. Connors' research showed that using a shorter period like 2 can better capture short-term reversals, particularly when combined with a longer-term trend filter such as the 200-day SMA.
Connors' strategies, including this one, are built on empirical research using historical data. For example, in a study of over 1,000 signals generated by this strategy, Connors found that it performed consistently well across various markets, especially when trading ETFs and large-cap stocks (Connors & Alvarez, 2009).
Risks and Considerations
While the Larry Connors RSI 3 Strategy is backed by empirical research, it is not without risks:
Mean-Reversion Assumption: The strategy is based on the premise that markets revert to the mean. However, in strong trending markets, the strategy may underperform as prices can remain oversold or overbought for extended periods.
Short-Term Nature: The strategy focuses on very short-term movements, which can result in frequent trading. High trading frequency can lead to increased transaction costs, which may erode profits.
Market Conditions: The strategy performs best in certain market environments, particularly in stable uptrends. In highly volatile or strongly trending markets, the strategy's performance can deteriorate.
Data and Backtesting Limitations: While backtests may show positive results, they rely on historical data and do not account for future market conditions, slippage, or liquidity issues.
Scientific literature suggests that while technical analysis strategies like this can be effective in certain market conditions, they are not foolproof. According to Lo et al. (2000), technical strategies may show patterns that are statistically significant, but these patterns often diminish once they are widely adopted by traders.
References
Connors, L., & Alvarez, C. (2009). Short-Term Trading Strategies That Work. TradingMarkets Publishing Group.
Lo, A. W., Mamaysky, H., & Wang, J. (2000). Foundations of Technical Analysis: Computational Algorithms, Statistical Inference, and Empirical Implementation. The Journal of Finance, 55(4), 1705-1770.
Wilder, J. W. (1978). New Concepts in Technical Trading Systems. Trend Research
Averaging Down Strategy1. Averaging Down:
Definition: "Averaging Down" is a strategy in which an investor buys more shares of a declining asset, thus lowering the average purchase price. The main idea is that, by averaging down, the investor can recover faster when the price eventually rebounds.
Risk Considerations: This strategy assumes that the asset will recover in value. If the price continues to decline, however, the investor may suffer larger losses. Academic research highlights the psychological bias of loss aversion that often leads investors to engage in averaging down, despite the increased risk (Barberis & Huang, 2001).
2. RSI (Relative Strength Index):
Definition: The RSI is a momentum oscillator that measures the speed and change of price movements. It ranges from 0 to 100 and is commonly used to identify overbought or oversold conditions. A reading below 30 (or in this case, 35) typically indicates an oversold condition, which might suggest a potential buying opportunity (Wilder, 1978).
Risk Considerations: RSI-based strategies can produce many false signals in range-bound or choppy markets, where prices do not exhibit strong trends. This can lead to multiple losing trades and an overall negative performance (Gencay, 1998).
3. Combination of RSI and Price Movement:
Approach: The combination of RSI for entry signals and price movement (previous day's high) for exit signals aims to capture short-term market reversals. This hybrid approach attempts to balance momentum with price confirmation.
Risk Considerations: While this combination can work well in trending markets, it may struggle in volatile or sideways markets. Additionally, a significant risk of averaging down is that the trader may continue adding to a losing position, which can exacerbate losses if the price keeps falling.
Risk Warnings:
Increased Losses Through Averaging Down:
Averaging down involves buying more of a falling asset, which can increase exposure to downside risk. Studies have shown that this approach can lead to larger losses when markets continue to decline, especially during prolonged bear markets (Statman, 2004).
A key risk is that this strategy may lead to significant capital drawdowns if the price of the asset does not recover as expected. In the worst-case scenario, this can result in a total loss of the invested capital.
False Signals with RSI:
RSI-based strategies are prone to generating false signals, particularly in markets that do not exhibit strong trends. For example, Gencay (1998) found that while RSI can be effective in certain conditions, it often fails in choppy or range-bound markets, leading to frequent stop-outs and drawdowns.
Psychological Bias:
Behavioral finance research suggests that the "Averaging Down" strategy may be influenced by loss aversion, a bias where investors prefer to avoid losses rather than achieve gains (Kahneman & Tversky, 1979). This can lead to poor decision-making, as investors continue to add to losing positions in the hope of a recovery.
Empirical Studies:
Gencay (1998): The study "The Predictability of Security Returns with Simple Technical Trading Rules" found that technical indicators like RSI can provide predictive value in certain markets, particularly in volatile environments. However, they are less reliable in markets that lack clear trends.
Barberis & Huang (2001): Their research on behavioral biases, including loss aversion, explains why investors are often tempted to average down despite the risks, as they attempt to avoid realizing losses.
Statman (2004): In "The Diversification Puzzle," Statman discusses how strategies like averaging down can increase risk exposure without necessarily improving long-term returns, especially if the underlying asset continues to perform poorly.
Conclusion:
The "Averaging Down Strategy with RSI" combines elements of technical analysis with a psychologically-driven averaging down approach. While the strategy may offer opportunities in trending or oversold markets, it carries significant risks, particularly in volatile or declining markets. Traders should be cautious when using this strategy, ensuring they manage risk effectively and avoid overexposure to a losing position.
SignalThis custom TradingView indicator, named "Signal," is designed to generate buy and sell signals based on the Stochastic Oscillator, a momentum indicator that compares a particular closing price of an asset to a range of its prices over a certain period of time. The indicator is set to overlay on the price chart, providing visual cues for potential trading opportunities.
Key features of the "Signal" indicator include:
1. **Dynamic Period Adjustment**: The indicator automatically adjusts its settings based on the chart's time frame. For a 1-hour (60 minutes) chart, the stochastic length is set to 15, while for a 15-minute chart, the length is set to 10.
2. **Stochastic Calculation**: It calculates the %K line as a smoothed moving average (SMA) of the stochastic ratio, and the %D line as an SMA of the %K line, with both lines smoothed over a period derived from the dynamic length setting.
3. **Signal Detection**: The indicator identifies bullish crossovers (golden crosses) when the %K line crosses above the %D line and the average of both lines is below 50. Conversely, it detects bearish crossovers (death crosses) when the %K line crosses below the %D line and the average is above 50.
4. **Signal Confirmation**: Signals are confirmed using historical data with an offset of 1 bar to ensure that the crossover is evaluated after the close of the candlestick, thus avoiding repainting issues.
5. **Visual Indicators**: Buy signals are represented by green upward-pointing triangles placed below the bars, while sell signals are indicated by red downward-pointing triangles above the bars.
6. **Alerts**: The indicator includes alert conditions for both golden crosses and death crosses, notifying users when a potential buy or sell signal has been identified based on the stochastic crossover.
This indicator can be a valuable tool for traders who follow stochastic momentum signals and prefer to have dynamic adjustments based on the chart's time frame. It is important to note that, as with all trading indicators, the "Signal" indicator should be used in conjunction with other forms of analysis to confirm trading signals and manage risk effectively.
Enhanced TrixThe Enhanced Trix Confluence Oscillator involves utilizing two core components: a slow line and a difference histogram based on a shorter length. Another key aspect is the indicator using the DEMA for greater speed while the triple smoothing still provides accuracy which makes this different from the original indicator. This approach aims to rely on principles of both momentum and divergence.
The ETC aims to filter out market noise to reveal the core trend direction in both the short and medium term. A slow line is calculated using a longer time period with the double exponential moving average, which makes it less responsive to short-term price fluctuations and better at capturing longer-term momentum. It's best used to identify divergences with the asset's price, signaling potential reversals. The difference histogram serves as a more sensitive indicator for trade timing once further calibrated. It's calculated by taking the difference between the displayed length and a shorter period using the same calculation. This histogram also operates as a rate of change like the TRIX.
The slow line identifies broader trends and divergences, while the difference histogram offers a more granular view.
MTF CCI BarOVERVIEW
This indicator shows whether Commodity Channel Index (CCI) is above or below 0, represented by a bar. This indicator is compatible with MTF.
CONCEPTS
What do you want to know about market analysis?
Do you want a hard analysis? You can look for it.
All I want to know is whether the commonly known technical analysis is 'UP' or 'DOWN'.
All I want to know is whether the current market price is going up or down. Not only for the current, but also for the monthly, weekly, and daily status.
I want to make a decision in a moment. Without even thinking about it.
That is why I created a color-coded bar indicator to show the status.
No need to frown anymore.
DETAILS
CCI is a momentum oscillator used in technical analysis primarily to identify overbought and oversold levels by measuring an instrument's variations away from its statistical mean. For this indicator, I have removed the concept of overbought and oversold.
0 <= CCI green
0 > CCI red
However, with future upgrades, I would like to color-code it for overbought and oversold conditions as well.
Modified StochasticThis Oscillator using RMA smoothing. Feel free to explore and enjoy. Any suggestion, please leave comment.
RSI ScalpinThis is a test script for personal use only. A oscillator of Stochastic and DMI to catch buy and sell signal
LinearityFinderThis indicator allows you to filter the chart from probable chaotic movements.
I use Stochastic oscillator mixing of Standard deviation and smoothed Volume .
When the standard deviation is higher than the volume , it is worth waiting for linear movements.
When the volume is above the standard deviation, it is worth waiting for chaotic movements.
Work on the indicator is in progress. I can make minor changes.
Right Way OscillatorThis is a large composite screener indicator that includes 14 different indicators, the values of which are arranged in a color format and show the current market situation,
as well as all these values are summarized in a chart, each value is weighted by strength, which allows you to get a comprehensive picture of the market at the moment,
2 signal lines are plotted on the indicator, their intersection means that most indicators will show the maximum score.
Also, at the expected moments of the appearance of a trend movement, a gray background lights up on the indicator and 2 colored lines of the DI indicator appear, the color of the bottom line indicates what kind of movement is brewing.
