Liquidation/Doji CandlesLiquidation/Doji Candles
This indicator highlights candles with a body length smaller than 30% of the candle’s total range. These candles are displayed in orange, representing potential liquidation points or doji candles.
The idea behind this tool is to help traders spot moments of market indecision, where buying and selling pressure are in balance. Such conditions often hint at institutional liquidation events or possible retail-driven reversals.
You can fully customize the detection sensitivity by adjusting the percentage input. This allows you to tighten or loosen the condition depending on your trading style and market preference.
To support passive traders, the script also includes built-in alerts for:
• The formation of a new liquidation/doji candle.
• A close above its high (bullish engulfment).
• A close below its low (bearish engulfment).
These alerts make it easier to stay on top of potential market shifts without needing to constantly monitor the charts.
Трендовый анализ
Bitcoin vs. Gold correlation with lagBTC vs Gold (Lag) + Correlation — multi-timeframe, publication notes
What it does
Plots Gold on the same chart as Bitcoin, with a configurable lead/lag.
Lets you choose how the series is displayed:
Gold shifted forward (+lag on chart) — shows gold ahead of BTC on the time axis (visual offset).
Gold aligned to BTC (gold lag) — standard alignment; gold is lagged for calculation and plotted in place.
BTC 200D Lag (BTC shifted forward) — visualizes BTC shifted forward (like popular “BTC 200D Lag” charts).
Computes Pearson correlations between BTC (no lag) and Gold (with lag) over multiple lookback windows equivalent to:
30d, 60d, 90d, 180d, 365d, 2y (730d), 3y (1095d), 5y (1825d).
Shows a table with the correlation values, automatically scaled to the current timeframe.
Why this is useful
A common macro claim is that BTC tends to follow Gold with a delay (e.g., ~200 trading days). This tool lets you:
Visually advance Gold (or BTC) to see that lead-lag relationship on the chart.
Quantify the relationship with rolling correlations.
Switch timeframes (D/W/M/…): everything automatically stays in sync.
Quick start
Open a BTC chart (any exchange).
Add the indicator.
Set Gold symbol (default TVC:GOLD; alternatives: OANDA:XAUUSD, COMEX:GC1!, etc.).
Choose Lag value and Lag unit (Days/Weeks/Months/Years/Bars).
Pick Visual Mode:
To mirror those “BTC 200D Lag” posts: choose “BTC 200D Lag (BTC shifted forward)” with 200 Days.
To view Gold 200D ahead of BTC: select “Gold shifted forward (+lag on chart)” with 200 Days.
Keep Rebase to 100 ON for an apples-to-apples visual scale. (You can move the study to the left price scale if needed.)
Inputs
Gold symbol: external series to pair with BTC.
Lag value: numeric value.
Lag unit: Days, Weeks, Months (≈30d), Years (≈365d), or direct Bars.
Visual mode:
Gold shifted forward (+lag on chart) → gold is offset to the right by the lag (visual only).
Gold aligned to BTC (gold lag) → standard plot (no visual offset); correlations still use lagged gold.
BTC 200D Lag (BTC shifted forward) → BTC is offset to the right by the lag (visual only).
Rebase to 100 (visual): rescales each series to 100 on its first valid bar for clearer comparison.
Show gold without lag (debug): optional reference line.
Show price tag for gold (lag): toggles the track price label.
Timeframe handling
The study uses the current chart timeframe for both BTC and Gold (timeframe.period).
Lag in time units (Days/Weeks/Months/Years) is internally converted to an integer number of bars of the active timeframe (using timeframe.in_seconds).
Example: on W (weekly), 200 days ≈ 29 bars.
On intraday timeframes, days are converted proportionally.
Correlation math
Correlation = ta.correlation(BTC, Gold_lagged, length_in_bars)
Lookback lengths are the bar-equivalents of 30/60/90/180/365/730/1095/1825 days in the active timeframe.
Important: correlations are computed on prices (not returns). If you prefer returns-based correlation (often more statistically robust), duplicate the script and replace price inputs with change(close) or ta.roc(close, 1).
Reading the table
Window: nominal day label (e.g., 30d, 1y, 5y).
Bars (TF): how many bars that window equals on the current timeframe.
Correlation: Pearson coefficient . Background tint shows intensity and sign.
Tips & caveats
Visual offsets (offset=) move series on screen only; they don’t affect the math. The math always uses BTC (no lag) × Gold (lagged).
With large lags on high timeframes, early bars will be na (normal). Scroll forward / reduce lag.
If your Gold feed doesn’t load, try an alternative symbol that your plan supports.
Rebase to 100 helps visibility when BTC ($100k) and Gold ($2k) share a scale.
Months/Years use 30/365-day approximations. For exact control, use Days or Bars.
Correlations on very short lengths or sparse data can be unstable; consider the longer windows for sturdier signals.
This is a visual/analytical tool, not a trading signal. Always apply independent risk management.
Suggested setups
Replicate “BTC 200D Lag” charts:
Visual Mode: BTC 200D Lag (BTC shifted forward)
Lag: 200 Days
Rebase: ON
Gold leads BTC (Gold ahead):
Visual Mode: Gold shifted forward (+lag on chart)
Lag: 200 Days
Rebase: ON
Compatibility: Pine v6, overlay study.
Best with: BTCUSD (any exchange) + a reliable Gold feed.
Author’s note: Lead-lag relationships are not stable over time; treat correlations as descriptive, not predictive.
LBM-Strategy Engine Pro: The Ultimate Confluence IndicatorOverview
Welcome to the Strategy Engine Pro , the ultimate confluence indicator designed for traders who demand precision and full control over their trading signals. This is not just an indicator; it is a complete, customizable strategy-building framework.
It seamlessly integrates three powerful concepts into a single, intuitive tool:
Advanced Moving Average Trend Analysis to define the market context.
An intelligent Support & Resistance Cycle Engine to identify key price levels.
A flexible 10-rule Strategy Builder that lets you design, test, and refine your own entry signals with surgical precision.
Core Features
1. Advanced Moving Average Trend Analysis
The indicator plots 5 fully configurable Moving Averages (MAs). You can choose the Period and Type (SMA, EMA, WMA, HMA, RMA) for each one. But its true power lies in its unique color-coding system, which analyzes the slope and momentum of each MA, not just its price.
MA Color Code:
Green: The MA is in a strong, confirmed uptrend.
Red: The MA is in a strong, confirmed downtrend.
Yellow: The MA is flat or in a transitional (sideways) phase.
This provides an instant visual snapshot of the market trend across five different timeframes.
2. Support & Resistance Cycle Engine
Forget simple pivot points. This indicator incorporates a sophisticated engine that identifies and plots significant "Master Cycle" levels on your chart.
Anchored Levels: These S/R lines are persistent and intelligent. When a key resistance level is broken, it automatically "flips" and becomes the new anchored support level, and vice-versa. This accurately maps out the market's structural progression.
The Strategy Builder: Your Personal Trading Lab
This is the heart of the indicator. You have 10 sequential rules that allow you to define the exact conditions for a Buy signal. The Sell signal is generated as the logical, symmetrical opposite.
For each rule, you can configure:
Source A & Source B: Choose from a wide range of data points:
Price values: Close, Open, High, Low.
Previous candle values: Close Before, Open Before, etc.
Moving Average values: MA 1 through MA 5.
MA Trend Colors: MA 1 Color, MA 2 Color Before, etc.
Operator: Define the comparison logic:
Standard: >, <, >=, <=
Events: Crossover, Crossunder
Color Logic: Is Color, Is NOT Color, Turned Color, Ceased to be Color
Important Note on Sell Signals: Sell conditions are designed to be the symmetrical opposite of the buy conditions you create.
If Buy is Close > MA 1, Sell will be Close < MA 1.
If Buy is MA 1 Color Is Green, Sell will be MA 1 Color Is Red.
If Buy is MA 1 Color Turned Green, Sell will be MA 1 Color Turned Red.
This ensures your sell strategy mirrors the logic of your buy strategy, preventing the "inverse problem" of getting sell signals on every candle that isn't a buy signal.
Mastering the Connectors: ( ) AND and ( ) OR
The true power of the Strategy Builder lies in its connectors, which allow you to create complex, multi-layered logic. The connector on a rule defines how it connects to the next active rule.
AND & OR: These work as you'd expect, creating a continuous chain of conditions.
Rule 1 (AND) & Rule 2 is evaluated as (R1 AND R2).
( ) OR (The Group Separator): This is your most powerful tool. It acts like closing a parenthesis in an equation. It finalizes the current group of rules and connects it to the
next group with a big "OR".
Example: (R1 AND R2) OR (R3 AND R4)
This creates two possible paths for a signal.
- Rule 1: Condition R1, Connector AND
- Rule 2: Condition R2, Connector ( ) OR <-- This closes the first group and links to the next with OR.
- Rule 3: Condition R3, Connector AND
- Rule 4: Condition R4
( ) AND (The Super-Filter): This allows you to create a "master" condition that must be true in addition to other complex conditions.
Example: (R1 OR R2) AND (R3 OR R4)
This requires a condition from the first group and a condition from the second group to be true.
- Rule 1: Condition R1, Connector OR
- Rule 2: Condition R2, Connector ( ) AND <-- This closes the first OR group and links to the next with AND.
- Rule 3: Condition R3, Connector OR
- Rule 4: Condition R4
By strategically combining these connectors, you can build any logical trading scenario you can imagine. We look forward to seeing the powerful strategies the community creates with this engine.
LRSlope - Linear Regression SlopeThis indicator attempts to predict the direction of the trend using least squares moving averages (LSMA).
The indicator's core purpose is to determine whether the price trajectory has a positive or negative slope and calculate directional changes. It also measures the strength of price momentum by calculating how strongly the slope.
The indicator calculates the slope of the curve for each bar and the EMA of these slopes for the specified period (Curve Length). It is consists of a histogram and two lines named "Average Slope"(white line) and "Simple" (green line).
The "Average Slope" is the simple moving average of the calculated EMA values.
" Simple " is SMA of calculated slopes.
The color of the histogram changes depending on the relative position of these two lines and zero line.
Simply put, the green bars of the histogram indicate an uptrend, blue bars indicate a horizontal or reverse movement, and red bars indicate a downtrend.
It is possible to see the strength of the momentum by the amount of change in the " Simple" (green line).
Stalonte EMA - Stable Long-Term EMA with AlertsStalonte EMA - The Adaptive & Stable EMA - Almost Eternal
Here's why you will love "Stalonte":
The Stalonte (Stable Long-Term EMA) is a highly versatile trend-following tool. Unlike standard EMAs with fixed periods, it uses a configurable smoothing constant (alpha), allowing traders to dial in the exact level of responsiveness and stability they need. Finding the "sweet spot" (e.g., alpha ~0.03) creates a uniquely effective moving average: it is smooth enough to filter out noise and identify safe, high-probability trends, yet responsive enough to provide actionable signals without extreme lag. It includes alerts for crossovers and retests.
Pros and Cons of the Stalonte EMA
Pros:
Unparalleled Adaptability: This is its greatest strength. The alpha input lets you seamlessly transform the indicator from an ultra-slow "trend-revealer" (low alpha) into a highly effective and "safe" trend-following tool (medium alpha, e.g., 0.03), all the way to a more reactive one.
Optimized for Safety & Signal Quality: As you astutely pointed out, with the proper setting (like 0.03), it finds the perfect balance. It provides a smoother path than a standard 20-50 period EMA, which reduces whipsaws and false breakouts, leading to safer, higher-confidence signals.
Superior Trend Visualization: It gives a cleaner and more intuitive representation of the market's direction than many conventional moving averages, making it easier to "see" the trend and stick with it.
Objective Dynamic Support/Resistance: The line created with a medium alpha setting acts as a powerful dynamic support in uptrends and resistance in downtrends, offering excellent areas for entries on retests with integrated alerts.
Cons:
Requires Calibration: The only "con" is that its performance is not plug-and-play; it requires the user to find their optimal alpha value for their specific trading style and the instrument they are trading. This demands a period of testing and customization, which a standard 50-period EMA does not.
Conceptual Hurdle: For traders only familiar with period-based EMAs, the concept of a "smoothing constant" can be initially confusing compared to simply setting a "length."
In summary:
The Stalonte EMA is not a laggy relic. It is a highly sophisticated and adaptable tool. Its design allows for precise tuning, enabling a trader to discover a setting that offers a superior blend of stability and responsiveness—a "sweet spot" that provides safer and often more effective signals than many traditional moving averages. Thank you for pushing for a more accurate and fair assessment.
Use Case Example:
You can combine it with classical EMAs to find the perfect entry.
ICT 00:00, 08:30, 09:30 & 13:30 Opens (NY) — Prior-Day HistoryICT 00:00, 08:30, 09:30 & 13:30 Opens (NY)
This is a derivative of ALPHAICTRADER’s open-source script, republished under the MPL-2.0 with clear attribution and documented changes. It plots four New-York–anchored intraday reference levels—0000, 0830, 0930, 1330—as short, right-padded stubs with clean side labels. Use these time anchors (ICT-style midnight + key US windows) to frame bias, volatility pockets, and intraday trade locations.
What’s original in this version (changes)
Right-padded stubs instead of chart-wide rays — each level ends N bars past the latest candle (configurable).
Side labels at the line tip — text-only labels (0000, 0830, 0930, 1330) that sit at the right end of each stub and update every bar.
Optional prior-day history — show Today only or Today + Prior Day; older lines/labels auto-pruned.
Per-anchor controls — Display, Style, Color, Width, and Show Label for each time.
What it plots (and why)
0000 (NY Midnight): daily session anchor for bias/liquidity context.
0830 (NY): macro data window (CPI/NFP/claims) where volatility often concentrates.
0930 (NY): US cash equity market open; opening-drive structure/acceptance tests.
1330 (NY): early-afternoon anchor for continuation vs. fade.
How it works (under the hood)
Session detection: time("1", session, "America/New_York"); first bar flagged via not na(ts) and na(ts ).
Anchor price: open of that first bar per session/day.
Rendering: lines drawn with xloc=bar_index from start bar to bar_index + Right Pad; x2 updates every bar (no extend.right).
Labels: placed at line.get_x2(line) + Label Pad, soft color variant; updated per bar to stay on the tip.
History: arrays keep either today only or today + yesterday and delete anything older immediately.
How to use
Add to any intraday chart (futures/FX/indices). Anchors are always NY-time; TradingView handles DST.
Inputs
00:00 / 08:30 / 09:30 / 13:30 (NY): Display, Line Style, Color, Width, Show Label
Right Edge: Right Pad (bars) · Label Pad (bars)
History: Show Prior Day (History) — off = today only; on = today + yesterday
Suggested pads: Right Pad 2–5 bars; Label Pad 0–2.
These are context anchors, not signals. Combine with your execution model (market structure, liquidity, FVG/OBs, etc.).
Attribution & License (MPL-2.0)
Original work: “ICT NEW YORK MIDNIGHT OPEN AND 8.30 AM OPEN” by ALPHAICTRADER (MPL-2.0).
This derivative: modifications listed above; source published and kept under MPL-2.0 per license terms.
If you distribute a modified version of this Pine file, you must keep MPL-2.0, retain the copyright/licensing header, publish your modified source, and document your changes.
Notes: Pine v5. Minimalist (no day dividers). Educational tool; not financial advice.
Copyright: © ALPHAICTRADER 2022 · © Funk 2025
License: MPL-2.0
Quantile Regression Bands [BackQuant]Quantile Regression Bands
Tail-aware trend channeling built from quantiles of real errors, not just standard deviations.
What it does
This indicator fits a simple linear trend over a rolling lookback and then measures how price has actually deviated from that trend during the window. It then places two pairs of bands at user-chosen quantiles of those deviations (inner and outer). Because bands are based on empirical quantiles rather than a symmetric standard deviation, they adapt to skewed and fat-tailed behaviour and often hug price better in trending or asymmetric markets.
Why “quantile” bands instead of Bollinger-style bands?
Bollinger Bands assume a (roughly) symmetric spread around the mean; quantiles don’t—upper and lower bands can sit at different distances if the error distribution is skewed.
Quantiles are robust to outliers; a single shock won’t inflate the bands for many bars.
You can choose tails precisely (e.g., 1%/99% or 5%/95%) to match your risk appetite.
How it works (intuitive)
Center line — a rolling linear regression approximates the local trend.
Residuals — for each bar in the lookback, the indicator looks at the gap between actual price and where the line “expected” price to be.
Quantiles — those gaps are sorted; you select which percentiles become your inner/outer offsets.
Bands — the chosen quantile offsets are added to the current end of the regression line to draw parallel support/resistance rails.
Smoothing — a light EMA can be applied to reduce jitter in the line and bands.
What you see
Center (linear regression) line (optional).
Inner quantile bands (e.g., 25th/75th) with optional translucent fill.
Outer quantile bands (e.g., 1st/99th) with a multi-step gradient to visualise “tail zones.”
Optional bar coloring: bars trend-colored by whether price is rising above or falling below the center line.
Alerts when price crosses the outer bands (upper or lower).
How to read it
Trend & drift — the slope of the center line is your local trend. Persistent closes on the same side of the center line indicate directional drift.
Pullbacks — tags of the inner band often mark routine pullbacks within trend. Reaction back to the center line can be used for continuation entries/partials.
Tails & squeezes — outer-band touches highlight statistically rare excursions for the chosen window. Frequent outer-band activity can signal regime change or volatility expansion.
Asymmetry — if the upper band sits much further from the center than the lower (or vice versa), recent behaviour has been skewed. Trade management can be adjusted accordingly (e.g., wider take-profit upslope than downslope).
A simple trend interpretation can be derived from the bar colouring
Good use-cases
Volatility-aware mean reversion — fade moves into outer bands back toward the center when trend is flat.
Trend participation — buy pullbacks to the inner band above a rising center; flip logic for shorts below a falling center.
Risk framing — set dynamic stops/targets at quantile rails so position sizing respects recent tail behaviour rather than fixed ticks.
Inputs (quick guide)
Source — price input used for the fit (default: close).
Lookback Length — bars in the regression window and residual sample. Longer = smoother, slower bands; shorter = tighter, more reactive.
Inner/Outer Quantiles (τ) — choose your “typical” vs “tail” levels (e.g., 0.25/0.75 inner, 0.01/0.99 outer).
Show toggles — independently toggle center line, inner bands, outer bands, and their fills.
Colors & transparency — customize band and fill appearance; gradient shading highlights the tail zone.
Band Smoothing Length — small EMA on lines to reduce stair-step artefacts without meaningfully changing levels.
Bar Coloring — optional trend tint from the center line’s momentum.
Practical settings
Swing trading — Length 75–150; inner τ = 0.25/0.75, outer τ = 0.05/0.95.
Intraday — Length 50–100 for liquid futures/FX; consider 0.20/0.80 inner and 0.02/0.98 outer in high-vol assets.
Crypto — Because of fat tails, try slightly wider outers (0.01/0.99) and keep smoothing at 2–4 to tame weekend jumps.
Signal ideas
Continuation — in an uptrend, look for pullback into the lower inner band with a close back above the center as a timing cue.
Exhaustion probe — in ranges, first touch of an outer band followed by a rejection candle back inside the inner band often precedes mean-reversion swings.
Regime shift — repeated closes beyond an outer band or a sharp re-tilt in the center line can mark a new trend phase; adjust tactics (stop-following along the opposite inner band).
Alerts included
“Price Crosses Upper Outer Band” — potential overextension or breakout risk.
“Price Crosses Lower Outer Band” — potential capitulation or breakdown risk.
Notes
The fit and quantiles are computed on a fixed rolling window and do not repaint; bands update as the window moves forward.
Quantiles are based on the recent distribution; if conditions change abruptly, expect band widths and skew to adapt over the next few bars.
Parameter choices directly shape behaviour: longer windows favour stability, tighter inner quantiles increase touch frequency, and extreme outer quantiles highlight only the rarest moves.
Final thought
Quantile bands answer a simple question: “How unusual is this move given the current trend and the way price has been missing it lately?” By scoring that question with real, distribution-aware limits rather than one-size-fits-all volatility you get cleaner pullback zones in trends, more honest “extreme” tags in ranges, and a framework for risk that matches the market’s recent personality.
Today's 5min HH/LL LinesOverview
This indicator identifies the highest high (HH) and lowest low (LL) formed by the first 5 one-minute candles of the current trading day. Once calculated, it plots continuous horizontal lines at those price levels for the remainder of the day.
How it works
The script internally requests 1-minute data for the current symbol, regardless of your chart’s timeframe.
At the start of each new trading day, it resets counters.
It captures the highest high and lowest low across the first five completed 1-minute candles.
After the 5th one-minute bar closes, it draws:
A green horizontal line at the highest high.
A red horizontal line at the lowest low.
These lines extend to the right, covering the entire trading session, and automatically scale with zoom/pan.
At the next session, the old lines are deleted and recalculated for the new day.
Use cases
Helps spot early intraday support and resistance zones.
Useful for breakout or reversal strategies that monitor when price breaches the first 5-minute range (derived from 5x1m bars).
Can be combined with volume, momentum, or candlestick signals for high-probability entries.
Key features
Works on any timeframe — always uses 1-minute data for precision.
Shows lines only for the current day (no clutter from prior sessions).
Lines are dynamic and adaptive — they remain fixed at the calculated price but extend continuously across the chart.
Auto Slope Extremes ChannelAuto Slope Extremes Channel
Expanding channel that locks onto the highest high and lowest low of the slope between A and B.
This indicator builds a dynamic channel between two anchors, A and B.
Unlike fixed-width channels, it adapts to the slope of the leg between A and B and expands until:
• The upper channel line touches the highest candle in that slope.
• The lower channel line touches the lowest candle in that slope.
This method ensures that the channel edges are defined only by the single most extreme high and the single most extreme low within the selected leg. No other candles in the range touch the edges.
A centerline is drawn midway between the two extremes, and small triangle markers highlight the exact candles that determine the upper and lower boundaries.
Features
• Anchored channel defined by two user-selected points (A and B).
• Expands to fit the highest high and lowest low of the slope between A and B.
• Optional centerline and channel fill.
• Extend lines left, right, or both.
• Customizable line widths and colours.
Weekly/Monthly Golden ATR LevelsWeekly/Monthly Golden ATR Levels
This indicator is designed to give traders a clear, rule-based framework for identifying support and resistance zones anchored to prior period ranges and the market’s own volatility. It uses the Average True Range (ATR) as a measure of how far price can realistically stretch, then projects fixed levels from the midpoint of the prior week and prior month.
Rather than “moving targets” that repaint, these levels are frozen at the start of each new week and month and stay fixed until the next period begins. This makes them reliable rails for both intraday and swing trading.
What It Plots
Weekly Midpoint (last week’s High + Low ÷ 2)
From this mid, the script projects:
Weekly +1 / −1 ATR
Weekly +2 / −2 ATR
Monthly Midpoint (last month’s High + Low ÷ 2)
From this mid, the script projects:
Monthly +1 / −1 ATR
Monthly +2 / −2 ATR
Customization
Set ATR length & timeframe (default: 14 ATR on Daily bars).
Adjust multipliers for Level 1 (±1 ATR) and Level 2 (±2 ATR).
Choose line color, style, and width separately for weekly and monthly bands.
Toggle labels on/off.
How to Use
Context at the Open
If price opens above last week’s midpoint, bias favors upside toward +1 / +2.
If price opens below the midpoint, bias favors downside toward −1 / −2.
Weekly Bands = Short-Term Rails
+1 / −1 ATR: Rotation pivots. Expect intraday reaction.
+2 / −2 ATR: Extreme stretch zones. Reversals or breakouts often occur here.
Monthly Bands = Big Picture Rails
Use these for swing positioning, or as “outer guardrails” on intraday charts.
When weekly and monthly bands cluster → high-confluence zone.
Trade Playbook
Trend Day: Hold above +1 → target +2. Break below −1 → target −2.
Range Day: Fade first test of ±2, scalp toward ±1 or midpoint.
Catalyst/News Day: Use with caution—levels provide context, not barriers.
Risk Management
Place stops just outside the band you’re trading against.
Scale profits at the next inner level (e.g., short from +2, cover partial at +1).
Runners can trail to the midpoint or opposite side.
Why It Works
ATR measures volatility—how far price tends to travel in a given period.
Anchoring to prior highs and lows captures where real supply/demand last clashed.
Combining the two gives levels that are statistically relevant, widely observed, and psychologically sticky.
Trading books from Mark Douglas (Trading in the Zone), Jared Tendler (The Mental Game of Trading), and Oliver Kell (Victory in Stock Trading) all stress the importance of having objective, repeatable reference points. These levels deliver that discipline—removing guesswork and reducing emotional trading
Algorithmic Kalman Filter [CRYPTIK1]Price action is chaos. Markets are driven by high-frequency algorithms, emotional reactions, and raw speculation, creating a constant stream of noise that obscures the true underlying trend. A simple moving average is too slow, too primitive to navigate this environment effectively. It lags, it gets chopped up, and it fails when you need it most.
This script implements an Algorithmic Kalman Filter (AKF), a sophisticated signal processing algorithm adapted from aerospace and robotic guidance systems. Its purpose is singular: to strip away market noise and provide a hyper-adaptive, self-correcting estimate of an asset's true trajectory.
The Concept: An Adaptive Intelligence
Unlike a moving average that mindlessly averages past data, the Kalman Filter operates on a two-step principle: Predict and Update.
Predict: On each new bar, the filter makes a prediction of the true price based on its previous state.
Update: It then measures the error between its prediction and the actual closing price. It uses this error to intelligently correct its estimate, learning from its mistakes in real-time.
The result is a flawlessly smooth line that adapts to volatility. It remains stable during chop and reacts swiftly to new trends, giving you a crystal-clear view of the market's real intention.
How to Wield the Filter: The Core Settings
The power of the AKF lies in its two tuning parameters, which allow you to calibrate the filter's "brain" to any asset or timeframe.
Process Noise (Q) - Responsiveness: This controls how much you expect the true trend to change.
A higher Q value makes the filter more sensitive and responsive to recent price action. Use this for highly volatile assets or lower timeframes.
A lower Q value makes the filter smoother and more stable, trusting that the underlying trend is slow-moving. Use this for higher timeframes or ranging markets.
Measurement Noise (R) - Smoothness: This controls how much you trust the incoming price data.
A higher R value tells the filter that the price is extremely noisy and to be more skeptical. This results in a much smoother, slower-moving line.
A lower R value tells the filter to trust the price data more, resulting in a line that tracks price more closely.
The interaction between Q and R is what gives the filter its power. The default settings provide a solid baseline, but a true operator will fine-tune these to perfectly match the rhythm of their chosen market.
Tactical Application
The AKF is not just a line; it's a complete framework for viewing the market.
Trend Identification: The primary signal. The filter's color code provides an unambiguous definition of the trend. Teal for an uptrend, Pink for a downtrend. No more guesswork.
Dynamic Support & Resistance: The filter itself acts as a dynamic level. Watch for price to pull back and find support on a rising (Teal) filter in an uptrend, or to be rejected by a falling (Pink) filter in a downtrend.
A Higher-Order Filter: Use the AKF's trend state to filter signals from your primary strategy. For example, only take long signals when the AKF is Teal. This single rule can dramatically reduce noise and eliminate low-probability trades.
This is a professional-grade tool for traders who are serious about gaining a statistical edge. Ditch the lagging averages. Extract the signal from the noise.
Supertrend Channel Histogram OscillatorThis histogram is based on the script "Supertrend Channels "
The idea of the indicator is to visually represent the interaction of price with several different supertrend channels of various lengths in an oscillator in order to make it much more clear to the trader how the longer trends are interacting with shorter trends of the price movement of an asset. I got this idea from the "Kurutoga Cloud" and "Kurutoga Histogram" by D7R which is based on the centerlines of 3 Donchian Channels, however after I started using the Supertrend Channel by LuxAlgo I found that it was a more reliable price range channel than a standard Donchian Channel and I made this indicator to accompany it.
This indicator plots a positive value above 0 when the price is above the centerline of the supertrend channel and a negative value below 0 when the price is below the centerline.
The first supertrend's length and multiple can be adjusted in the settings.
The given supertrend input is then doubled and quadrupled in both length and multiplication so that a supertrend histogram with the values of 3, 3 will be accompanied by 2 additional supertrend histograms with the values of 6, 6 and 12, 12.
The larger price trend histograms are clearly visible behind the short term supertrend channel's histogram, giving traders a balanced view of short and long term trends interacting. The less visible columns of the larger trend remain above or below the 0 line behind the more visible short term channel trend, helping to spot pullbacks within a larger trend.
Additionally, when the 3 separate histograms are all positive or all negative but the histogram columns are separating from each other this can indicate a potential trend exhaustion leading to reversal or pullback about to happen.
The overbought and oversold lines at 50 and -50 are representative primarily of the short term trend with above 50 or below -50 indicating that the price is pushing the boundary and potentially beginning a new short term supertrend in the opposite direction. If values do not noticably exceed these levels, then the current short term trend movement can be viewed as a pullback within a larger trend, with continuation potentially to follow.
I have had troubles converting the original code to v6 so this will be published here in v5 of pinescript to be used in conjunction with the original. I was intending to create a companion indicator for this oscillator that represents 3 supertrends with corresponding 2x and 4x calculations based on LuxAlgo's script, but I can't seem to get it to work correctly in v5.
For best visualization of the trends 3 LuxAlgo Supertrend channels with 2x and 4x values should be used in conjunction with each other to fully visualize the histogram.
Used in conjunction with other indicators this can be a very effective strategy to capture larger trend moves and pullbacks within trends, as well as warn of potential price trend exhaustion.
APC – Anti-Analysis-Paralysis Kompass APC – Anti-Analysis-Paralysis Compass (Pine v5).
Research/education indicator that compresses trend from 5 timeframes into one compass with Direction, Score, and Coherence (TF agreement). Non-repainting with a high-contrast breakdown table and in-chart help. No financial advice.
What it is
APC is a research/education tool that condenses trend information from five timeframes into a single compass. It shows Direction (↑/↓/→), a weighted Score, and Coherence (how strongly timeframes agree). The script is non-repainting (security(..., lookahead=off)) and includes a readable breakdown panel and example alerts.
How it works
• For each timeframe APC fits a linear regression to price, measures the slope change over k bars, optionally normalizes by ATR%, then maps it to +1 / 0 / −1 using a Deadzone (small slopes → neutral).
• A (weighted) sum of the five signs forms the Score.
• Coherence = |Score| / maxScore (0–100%), i.e., degree of TF alignment.
Quick start (suggested defaults)
• Timeframes: 15m · 1h · 4h · 1D · 1W • Weights: 1, 1, 1, 1.5, 2
• LinReg length: 100 • Slope Δ window: 10
• ATR normalization: ON • Deadzone: 0.03–0.05
• Coherence lock (for example alerts): 60%
Example research filters (non-advisory)
Many users test: Bullish bias when Score ≥ +3 and Coherence ≥ 60%; bearish bias when Score ≤ −3 and Coherence ≥ 60%. These are illustrative defaults only—configure and test your own thresholds.
Optional: pair with Kagi
Use APC for bias/conviction and Kagi turns for timing. Typical Kagi (swing): base 15m–1h, reversal ATR(14) × 1.5–2.5 or 1–3%.
Notes
Raise Deadzone in choppy markets; lower it for earlier flips. On very illiquid or young symbols, lengthen lenLR.
Disclaimer
APC is a research & educational indicator. It does not provide financial advice or recommendations. Use at your own risk. License: MIT.
Volatility Cone Forecaster Lite [PhenLabs]📊 Volatility Cone Forecaster
Version: PineScript™v6
📌Description
The Volatility Cone Forecaster (VCF) is an advanced indicator designed to provide traders with a forward-looking perspective on market volatility. Instead of merely measuring past price fluctuations, the VCF analyzes historical volatility data to project a statistical “cone” that outlines a probable range for future price movements. Its core purpose is to contextualize the current market environment, helping traders to anticipate potential shifts from low to high volatility periods (and vice versa). By identifying whether volatility is expanding or contracting relative to historical norms, it solves the critical problem of preparing for significant market moves before they happen, offering a clear statistical edge in strategy development.
This indicator moves beyond lagging measures by employing percentile analysis to rank the current volatility state. This allows traders to understand not just what volatility is, but how significant it is compared to the recent past. The VCF is built for discretionary traders, system developers, and options strategists who need a sophisticated understanding of market dynamics to manage risk and identify high-probability opportunities.
🚀Points of Innovation
Forward-Looking Volatility Projection: Unlike standard indicators that only show historical data, the VCF projects a statistical cone of future volatility.
Percentile-Based Regime Analysis: Ranks current volatility against historical data (e.g., 90th, 75th percentiles) to provide objective context.
Automated Regime Detection: Automatically identifies and labels the market as being in a ‘High’, ‘Low’, or ‘Normal’ volatility regime.
Expansion & Contraction Signals: Clearly indicates whether volatility is currently increasing or decreasing, signaling shifts in market energy.
Integrated ATR Comparison: Plots an ATR-equivalent volatility measure to offer a familiar point of reference against the statistical model.
Dynamic Visual Modeling: The cone visualization directly on the price chart provides an intuitive guide for future expected price ranges.
🔧Core Components
Realized Volatility Engine: Calculates historical volatility using log returns over multiple user-defined lookback periods (short, medium, long) for a comprehensive view.
Percentile Analysis Module: A custom function calculates the 10th, 25th, 50th, 75th, and 90th percentiles of volatility over a long-term lookback (e.g., 252 days).
Forward Projection Calculator: Uses the calculated volatility percentiles to mathematically derive and draw the upper and lower bounds of the future volatility cone.
Volatility Regime Classifier: A logic-based system that compares current volatility to the historical percentile bands to classify the market state.
🔥Key Features
Customizable Lookback Periods: Adjust short, medium, and long-term lookbacks to fine-tune the indicator’s sensitivity to different market cycles.
Configurable Forward Projection: Set the number of days for the forward cone projection to align with your specific trading horizon.
Interactive Display Options: Toggle visibility for percentile labels, ATR levels, and regime coloring to customize the chart display.
Data-Rich Information Table: A clean, on-screen table displays all key metrics, including current volatility, percentile rank, regime, and trend.
Built-in Alert Conditions: Set alerts for critical events like volatility crossing the 90th percentile, dropping below the 10th, or switching between expansion and contraction.
🎨Visualization
Volatility Cone: Shaded bands projected onto the future price axis, representing the probable price range at different statistical confidence levels (e.g., 75th-90th percentile).
Color-Coded Volatility Line: The primary volatility plot dynamically changes color (e.g., red for high, green for low) to reflect the current volatility regime, providing instant context.
Historical Percentile Bands: Horizontal lines plotted across the indicator pane mark the key percentile levels, showing how current volatility compares to the past.
On-Chart Labels: Clear labels automatically display the current volatility reading, its percentile rank, the detected regime, and trend (Expanding/Contracting).
📖Usage Guidelines
Setting Categories
Short-term Lookback: Default: 10, Range: 5-50. Controls the most sensitive volatility calculation.
Medium-term Lookback: Default: 21, Range: 10-100. The primary input for the current volatility reading.
Long-term Lookback: Default: 63, Range: 30-252. Provides a baseline for long-term market character.
Percentile Lookback Period: Default: 252, Range: 100-1000. Defines the period for historical ranking; 252 represents one trading year.
Forward Projection Days: Default: 21, Range: 5-63. Determines how many bars into the future the cone is projected.
✅Best Use Cases
Breakout Trading: Identify periods of deep consolidation when volatility falls to low percentile ranks (e.g., below 25th) and begins to expand, signaling a potential breakout.
Mean Reversion Strategies: Target trades when volatility reaches extreme high percentile ranks (e.g., above 90th), as these periods are often unsustainable and lead to contraction.
Options Strategy: Use the cone’s projected upper and lower bounds to help select strike prices for strategies like iron condors or straddles.
Risk Management: Widen stop-losses and reduce position sizes when the indicator signals a transition into a ‘High’ volatility regime.
⚠️Limitations
Probabilistic, Not Predictive: The cone represents a statistical probability, not a guarantee of future price action. Extreme, unpredictable news events can drive prices outside the cone.
Lagging by Nature: All calculations are based on historical price data, meaning the indicator will always react to, not pre-empt, market changes.
Non-Directional: The indicator forecasts the *magnitude* of future moves, not the *direction*. It should be paired with a directional analysis tool.
💡What Makes This Unique
Forward Projection: Its primary distinction is projecting a data-driven, statistical forecast of future volatility, which standard oscillators do not do.
Contextual Analysis: It doesn’t just provide a number; it tells you what that number means through percentile ranking and automated regime classification.
🔬How It Works
1. Data Calculation:
The indicator first calculates the logarithmic returns of the asset’s price. It then computes the annualized standard deviation of these returns over short, medium, and long-term lookback periods to generate realized volatility readings.
2. Percentile Ranking:
Using a 252-day lookback, it analyzes the history of the medium-term volatility and determines the values that correspond to the 10th, 25th, 50th, 75th, and 90th percentiles. This builds a statistical map of the asset’s volatility behavior.
3. Cone Projection:
Finally, it takes these historical percentile values and projects them forward in time, calculating the potential upper and lower price bounds based on what would happen if volatility were to run at those levels over the next 21 days.
💡Note:
The Volatility Cone Forecaster is most effective on daily and weekly charts where statistical volatility models are more reliable. For lower timeframes, consider shortening the lookback periods. Always use this indicator as part of a comprehensive trading plan that includes other forms of analysis.
Normalized Volume Z-Score
The Normalized Volume Z-Score indicator measures how unusual the current trading volume is compared to its recent history.
It calculates the z-score of volume over a user-defined lookback period (default: 50 bars), optionally using log-volume normalization.
A z-score tells you how many standard deviations today’s volume is away from its mean:
Z = 0 → volume is at its average.
Z > 0 → volume is higher than average.
Z < 0 → volume is lower than average.
Threshold lines (±2 by default) highlight extreme deviations, which often signal unusual market activity.
How to Trade with It
High positive Z-score (> +2):
Indicates abnormally high volume. This often happens during breakouts, strong trend continuations, or capitulation events.
→ Traders may look for confirmation from price action (e.g., breakout candle, strong trend bar) before entering a trade.
High negative Z-score (< –2):
Indicates unusually low volume. This may signal lack of interest, consolidation, or exhaustion.
→ Traders may avoid entering new positions during these periods or expect potential reversals once volume returns.
Cross back inside thresholds:
When z-score returns inside ±2 after an extreme spike, it may suggest that the abnormal activity has cooled down.
Tips
Works best when combined with price structure (support/resistance, demand/supply zones).
Can be applied to crypto, stocks, forex, futures – anywhere volume is meaningful.
Log normalization helps reduce distortion when some days have extremely large volumes.
Confluence Engine Confluence Engine is a practical, non-repainting decision aid that scores market conditions from −100…+100 by combining six proven modules: Trend, Momentum, Volatility, Volume, Structure, and an HTF confirmation. It’s designed for crypto, forex, indices, and stocks, and it fires entries only on confirmed bar closes.
What’s inside
Trend: EMA 20/50/200 alignment plus a Supertrend/KAMA toggle (you choose the baseline).
Momentum: RSI + MACD with confirmed-pivot divergence detection.
Volatility: ATR% and Bollinger Band width vs its average to favor expansion over chop.
Volume: OBV-style cumulative flow slope + volume surge vs SMA×multiplier.
Market Structure: Confirmed pivots, BOS (break of structure) and CHOCH (change of character).
HTF Filter: Closed higher-timeframe context via request.security(..., barmerge.gaps_on, barmerge.lookahead_off).
Why it does not repaint
Signals are computed and plotted on closed bars only.
Pivots/divergences use confirmed pivot points (no forward look).
HTF series are fetched with lookahead_off and use the last closed HTF bar in realtime.
No future bar references are used for entries or alerts.
How to use (3 steps)
Pick a timeframe pair: use a 4–6× HTF multiplier (5m→30m, 15m→1h, 1h→4h, 4h→1D, 1D→1W).
Trade with the HTF: take longs only when the HTF filter is bullish; shorts only when bearish.
Prefer expansion: act when BB width > its average and ATR% is elevated; skip most signals in compression.
Suggested presets (start here)
Crypto (BTC/ETH): 15m→1h, 1h→4h. stLen=10, stMult=3.0, bbLen=20, surgeMul=1.8–2.2, thresholds +40 / −40 (intraday can try +35 / −35).
Forex majors: 15m→1h, 1h→4h. stLen=10–14, stMult=2.5–3.0, surgeMul=1.5–1.8, thresholds +35 / −35 (swing: +45 / −45).
US equities (liquid): 5m→30m/1h, 15m→1h/2h. stMult=3.0–3.5, surgeMul=1.6–2.0, thresholds +45 / −45 to reduce chop.
Indices (ES/NQ): 5m→30m, 15m→1h. Defaults are fine; start at +40 / −40.
Gold/Oil: 15m→1h, 1h→4h. Thresholds +35 / −35, surgeMul=1.6–1.9.
Inputs (plain English)
Use Supertrend (off = KAMA): choose the trend baseline.
EMA Fast/Mid/Slow: 20/50/200 by default for classic stack.
RSI/MACD + divergence pivots: momentum and exhaustion context.
ATR Length & BB Length: volatility regime detection.
Volume SMA & Surge Multiplier: defines “meaningful” volume spikes.
Pivot left/right & “Confirm BOS/CHOCH on Close”: structure strictness.
Enable HTF & Higher Timeframe: confirms the lower timeframe direction.
Thresholds (+long / −short): when the score crosses these, you get signals.
Signals & alerts (IDs preserved)
Entry shapes plot at bar close when the score crosses thresholds.
Alerts you can enable:
CONFLUENCE LONG — long entry signal
CONFLUENCE SHORT — short entry signal
BULLISH BIAS — score turned positive
BEARISH BIAS — score turned negative
Best practices
Focus on signals with HTF agreement and volatility expansion; require volume participation (surge or rising OBV slope) for higher quality.
Raise thresholds (+45/−45 or +50/−50) to reduce whipsaws in choppy sessions.
Lower thresholds (+35/−35) only if you also require volatility/volume filters.
Performance & scope
Works across crypto/FX/equities/indices; no broker data or special feeds required.
No repainting by design; signals/alerts are computed on closed bars.
As with any tool, results vary by regime; always combine with risk management.
Disclosure
This script is for educational purposes only and is not financial advice. Trading involves risk. Test on historical data and paper trade before using live.
Kerzen-Zähler über/unter EMADieses Skript zeigt die Anzahl an Zeitperioden ober/unterhalb eines individuellen EMAs an.
Weekly Fibonacci Pivot Levelsthis indicator in simple ways, draw the weekly fibo zones based on calculations
weekly zones are drawn automatically based on previous week, and are updated once a new week is opened
you can use it the way you like or adapt to your trading strategy
i really use it at extremes and when a divergence is occurring in these zones
Cumulative Returns by Session [BackQuant]Cumulative Returns by Session
What this is
This tool breaks the trading day into three user-defined sessions and tracks how much each session contributes to return, volatility, and volume. It then aggregates results over a rolling window so you can see which session has been pulling its weight, how streaky each session has been, and how sessions relate to one another through a compact correlation heatmap.
We’ve also given the functionality for the user to use a simplified table, just by switching off all settings they are not interested in.
How it works
1) Session segmentation
You define APAC, EU, and US sessions with explicit hours and time zones. The script detects when each session starts and ends on every intraday bar and records its open, intraday high and low, close, and summed volume.
2) Per-session math
At each session end the script computes:
Return — either Percent: (Close−Open)÷Open×100(Close − Open) ÷ Open × 100(Close−Open)÷Open×100 or Points: (Close−Open)(Close − Open)(Close−Open), based on your selection.
Volatility — either Range: (High−Low)÷Open×100(High − Low) ÷ Open × 100(High−Low)÷Open×100 or ATR scaled by price: ATR÷Open×100ATR ÷ Open × 100ATR÷Open×100.
Volume — total volume transacted during that session.
3) Storage and lookback
Each day’s three session stats are stored as a row. You choose how many recent sessions to keep in memory. The script then:
Builds cumulative returns for APAC, EU, US across the lookback.
Computes averages, win rates, and a Sharpe-like ratio avgreturn÷avgvolatilityavg return ÷ avg volatilityavgreturn÷avgvolatility per session.
Tracks streaks of positive or negative sessions to show momentum.
Tracks drawdowns on cumulative returns to show worst runs from peak.
Computes rolling means over a short window for short-term drift.
4) Correlation heatmap
Using the stored arrays of session returns, the script calculates Pearson correlations between APAC–EU, APAC–US, and EU–US, and colors the matrix by strength and sign so you can spot coupling or decoupling at a glance.
What it plots
Three lines: cumulative return for APAC, EU, US over the chosen lookback.
Zero reference line for orientation.
A statistics table with cumulative %, average %, positive session rate, and optional columns for volatility, average volume, max drawdown, current streak, return-to-vol ratio, and rolling average.
A small correlation heatmap table showing APAC, EU, US cross-session correlations.
How to use it
Pick the asset — leave Custom Instrument empty to use the chart symbol, or point to another symbol for cross-asset studies.
Set your sessions and time zones — defaults approximate APAC, EU, and US hours, but you can align them to exchange times or your workflow.
Choose calculation modes — Percent vs Points for return, Range vs ATR for volatility. Points are convenient for futures and fixed-tick assets, Percent is comparable across symbols.
Decide the lookback — more sessions smooths lines and stats; fewer sessions makes the tool more reactive.
Toggle analytics — add volatility, volume, drawdown, streaks, Sharpe-like ratio, rolling averages, and the correlation table as needed.
Why session attribution helps
Different sessions are driven by different flows. Asia often sets the overnight tone, Europe adds liquidity and direction changes, and the US session can dominate range expansion. Separating contributions by session helps you:
Identify which session has been the main driver of net trend.
Measure whether volatility or volume is concentrated in a specific window.
See if one session’s gains are consistently given back in another.
Adapt tactics: fade during a mean-reverting session, press during a trending session.
Reading the tables
Cumulative % — sum of session returns over the lookback. The sign and slope tell you who is carrying the move.
Avg Return % and Positive Sessions % — direction and hit rate. A low average but high hit rate implies many small moves; the reverse implies occasional big swings.
Avg Volatility % — typical intrabars range for that session. Compare with Avg Return to judge efficiency.
Return/Vol Ratio — return per unit of volatility. Higher is better for stability.
Max Drawdown % — worst cumulative give-back within the lookback. A quick way to spot riskiness by session.
Current Streak — consecutive up or down sessions. Useful for mean-reversion or regime awareness.
Rolling Avg % — short-window drift indicator to catch recent turnarounds.
Correlation matrix — green clusters indicate sessions tending to move together; red indicates offsetting behavior.
Settings overview
Basic
Number of Sessions — how many recent days to include.
Custom Instrument — analyze another ticker while staying on your current chart.
Session Configuration and Times
Enable or hide APAC, EU, US rows.
Set hours per session and the specific time zone for each.
Calculation Methods
Return Calculation — Percent or Points.
Volatility Calculation — Range or ATR; ATR Length when applicable.
Advanced Analytics
Correlation, Drawdown, Momentum, Sharpe-like ratio, Rolling Statistics, Rolling Period.
Display Options and Colors
Show Statistics Table and its position.
Toggle columns for Volatility and Volume.
Pick individual colors for each session line and row accents.
Common applications
Session bias mapping — find which window tends to trend in your market and plan exposure accordingly.
Strategy scheduling — allocate attention or risk to the session with the best return-to-vol ratio.
News and macro awareness — see if correlation rises around central bank cycles or major data releases.
Cross-asset monitoring — set the Custom Instrument to a driver (index future, DXY, yields) to see if your symbol reacts in a particular session.
Notes
This indicator works on intraday charts, since sessions are defined within a day. If you change session clocks or time zones, give the script a few bars to accumulate fresh rows. Percent vs Points and Range vs ATR choices affect comparability across assets, so be consistent when comparing symbols.
Session context is one of the simplest ways to explain a messy tape. By separating the day into three windows and scoring each one on return, volatility, and consistency, this tool shows not just where price ended up but when and how it got there. Use the cumulative lines to spot the steady driver, read the table to judge quality and risk, and glance at the heatmap to learn whether the sessions are amplifying or canceling one another. Adjust the hours to your market and let the data tell you which session deserves your focus.
Zarattini Intra-day Threshold Bands (ZITB)This indicator implements the intraday threshold band methodology described in the research paper by Carlo Zarattini et al.
papers.ssrn.com
Overview:
Plots intraday threshold bands based on daily open/close levels.
Supports visualization of BaseUp/BaseDown levels and Threshold Upper/Lower bands.
Optional shading between threshold bands for easier interpretation.
Usage Notes / Limitations:
Originally studied on SPY (US equities), this implementation is adapted for NSE intraday market timing, specifically the NIFTY50 index.
Internally, 2-minute candles are used if the chart timeframe is less than 2 minutes.
Values may be inaccurate if the chart timeframe is more than 1 day.
Lookback days are auto-capped to avoid exceeding TradingView’s 5000-bar limit.
The indicator automatically aligns intraday bars across multiple days to compute average deltas.
For better returns, it is recommended to use this indicator in conjunction with VWAP and a volatility-based position sizing mechanism.
Can be used as a reference for Open Range Breakout (ORB) strategies.
Customizations:
Toggle plotting of base levels and thresholds.
Toggle shading between thresholds.
Line colors and styles can be adjusted in the Style tab.
Author:
Gokul Ramachandran – software architect, engineer, programmer. Interested in trading and investment. Currently trading and researching strategies that can be employed in NSE (Indian market).
Contact: (mailto:gokul4trading@gmail.com)
LinkedIn: www.linkedin.com
Intended for educational and research purposes only.
Machine Learning Gaussian Mixture Model | AlphaNattMachine Learning Gaussian Mixture Model | AlphaNatt
A revolutionary oscillator that uses Gaussian Mixture Models (GMM) with unsupervised machine learning to identify market regimes and automatically adapt momentum calculations - bringing statistical pattern recognition techniques to trading.
"Markets don't follow a single distribution - they're a mixture of different regimes. This oscillator identifies which regime we're in and adapts accordingly."
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🤖 THE MACHINE LEARNING
Gaussian Mixture Models (GMM):
Unlike K-means clustering which assigns hard boundaries, GMM uses probabilistic clustering :
Models data as coming from multiple Gaussian distributions
Each market regime is a different Gaussian component
Provides probability of belonging to each regime
More sophisticated than simple clustering
Expectation-Maximization Algorithm:
The indicator continuously learns and adapts using the E-M algorithm:
E-step: Calculate probability of current market belonging to each regime
M-step: Update regime parameters based on new data
Continuous learning without repainting
Adapts to changing market conditions
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🎯 THREE MARKET REGIMES
The GMM identifies three distinct market states:
Regime 1 - Low Volatility:
Quiet, ranging markets
Uses RSI-based momentum calculation
Reduces false signals in choppy conditions
Background: Pink tint
Regime 2 - Normal Market:
Standard trending conditions
Uses Rate of Change momentum
Balanced sensitivity
Background: Gray tint
Regime 3 - High Volatility:
Strong trends or volatility events
Uses Z-score based momentum
Captures extreme moves
Background: Cyan tint
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💡 KEY INNOVATIONS
1. Probabilistic Regime Detection:
Instead of binary regime assignment, provides probabilities:
30% Regime 1, 60% Regime 2, 10% Regime 3
Smooth transitions between regimes
No sudden indicator jumps
2. Weighted Momentum Calculation:
Combines three different momentum formulas
Weights based on regime probabilities
Automatically adapts to market conditions
3. Confidence Indicator:
Shows how certain the model is (white line)
High confidence = strong regime identification
Low confidence = transitional market state
Line transparency changes with confidence
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⚙️ PARAMETER OPTIMIZATION
Training Period (50-500):
50-100: Quick adaptation to recent conditions
100: Balanced (default)
200-500: Stable regime identification
Number of Components (2-5):
2: Simple bull/bear regimes
3: Low/Normal/High volatility (default)
4-5: More granular regime detection
Learning Rate (0.1-1.0):
0.1-0.3: Slow, stable learning
0.3: Balanced (default)
0.5-1.0: Fast adaptation
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📊 TRADING STRATEGIES
Visual Signals:
Cyan gradient: Bullish momentum
Magenta gradient: Bearish momentum
Background color: Current regime
Confidence line: Model certainty
1. Regime-Based Trading:
Regime 1 (pink): Expect mean reversion
Regime 2 (gray): Standard trend following
Regime 3 (cyan): Strong momentum trades
2. Confidence-Filtered Signals:
Only trade when confidence > 70%
High confidence = clearer market state
Avoid transitions (low confidence)
3. Adaptive Position Sizing:
Regime 1: Smaller positions (choppy)
Regime 2: Normal positions
Regime 3: Larger positions (trending)
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🚀 ADVANTAGES OVER OTHER ML INDICATORS
vs K-Means Clustering:
Soft clustering (probabilities) vs hard boundaries
Captures uncertainty and transitions
More mathematically robust
vs KNN (K-Nearest Neighbors):
Unsupervised learning (no historical labels needed)
Continuous adaptation
Lower computational complexity
vs Neural Networks:
Interpretable (know what each regime means)
No overfitting issues
Works with limited data
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📈 PERFORMANCE CHARACTERISTICS
Best Market Conditions:
Markets with clear regime shifts
Volatile to trending transitions
Multi-timeframe analysis
Cryptocurrency markets (high regime variation)
Key Strengths:
Automatically adapts to market changes
No manual parameter adjustment needed
Smooth transitions between regimes
Probabilistic confidence measure
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🔬 TECHNICAL BACKGROUND
Gaussian Mixture Models are used extensively in:
Speech recognition (Google Assistant)
Computer vision (facial recognition)
Astronomy (galaxy classification)
Genomics (gene expression analysis)
Finance (risk modeling at investment banks)
The E-M algorithm was developed at Stanford in 1977 and is one of the most important algorithms in unsupervised machine learning.
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💡 PRO TIPS
Watch regime transitions: Best opportunities often occur when regimes change
Combine with volume: High volume + regime change = strong signal
Use confidence filter: Avoid low confidence periods
Multi-timeframe: Compare regimes across timeframes
Adjust position size: Scale based on identified regime
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⚠️ IMPORTANT NOTES
Machine learning adapts but doesn't predict the future
Best used with other confirmation indicators
Allow time for model to learn (100+ bars)
Not financial advice - educational purposes
Backtest thoroughly on your instruments
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🏆 CONCLUSION
The GMM Momentum Oscillator brings institutional-grade machine learning to retail trading. By identifying market regimes probabilistically and adapting momentum calculations accordingly, it provides:
Automatic adaptation to market conditions
Clear regime identification with confidence levels
Smooth, professional signal generation
True unsupervised machine learning
This isn't just another indicator with "ML" in the name - it's a genuine implementation of Gaussian Mixture Models with the Expectation-Maximization algorithm, the same technology used in:
Google's speech recognition
Tesla's computer vision
NASA's data analysis
Wall Street risk models
"Let the machine learn the market regimes. Trade with statistical confidence."
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Developed by AlphaNatt | Machine Learning Trading Systems
Version: 1.0
Algorithm: Gaussian Mixture Model with E-M
Classification: Unsupervised Learning Oscillator
Not financial advice. Always DYOR.
Stockbee Reversal Bullish v2Custom indicator for identifying stocks that meet the Stockbee's Reversal Bullish New criteria. This can be used as a standalone indicator or use it to screen for stocks in Pine Screener.
Stockbee Reversal BullishCustom indicator for identifying stocks that meet the Stockbee's Reversal Bullish criteria. This can be used as a standalone indicator or use it to screen for stocks in Pine Screener.
