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Logarithmic Fair Value Anchor | PWLogarithmic Fair Value Anchor This indicator overlays a dynamic "fair value" estimate on the price chart, anchored to the momentum and historical relationship of a user-selected reference asset (e.g., gold, broad liquidity proxies, or major indices). It combines logarithmic deviation analysis with relative valuation to adapt to the anchor's behavior, offering a flexible tool for exploring cross-asset divergences, mean-reversion setups, and contextual extremes. Core Mechanics and Math Overview The fair value starts with a baseline: an EMA-smoothed ratio of price to the anchor over the lookback period (default 180 bars). This ratio reflects the historical "normal" relationship between the chart symbol and the anchor. Anchor momentum is added via the smoothed 1-period ROC of the anchor, scaled by a user-adjustable Momentum Influence Scale (default 5.0 — lower values increase responsiveness). This scaled influence is exponentially applied to adjust the baseline ratio. An optional correlation filter weights the adjustment using absolute log-price correlation (with threshold and manual multiplier). The result is DEMA-smoothed (default length 14) for a responsive yet stable fair value line. Deviation bands are built multiplicatively around this fair value using exp(deviation * level), preserving log-scale compatibility. Three band types are available: Log Stdev: Standard deviation of log(price / fair value) — dynamic, volatility-responsive. Static Sigma: Fixed user-defined deviation (default 0.15) — consistent relative widths. ATR: Relativized ATR converted to log deviation — range-based smoothing for volatile markets. Bands use asymmetric multipliers (defaults 1.8 upper / 1.25 lower) with three levels, fills, and markers for visual clarity. Key Features Anchor Flexibility: Choose from Gold (XAUUSD), Silver (XAGUSD), S&P 500 (SPX), BTC, or experimental proxies (GLI/M2 aggregates from FRED/ECONOMICS data). Trend and Visuals: Trend detection (price vs. offset fair value) with optional bar coloring, background highlights for extremes, and diamond markers for overbought/oversold. Enhanced Info Table (toggleable): Shows current fair value, selected anchor, band type, bias (LONG/SHORT/NEUTRAL), trend duration, trend quality (% clean bars), strength rating (icon-based), z-score deviation (effective band multiple in sigmas + approximate percentile), and valuation (Overvalued/Undervalued/Fair). Customization: Lookback, offset, smoothing, momentum scale, correlation weighting, band type, multipliers, bar color toggle — adaptable to different assets/timeframes. What Makes This Approach Distinct The script uses a smoothed price-to-anchor ratio as its baseline, then applies scaled logarithmic momentum influence to create a fair value that respects both history and external dynamics. This differs from pure moving averages or direct ratio models by incorporating cross-asset momentum in a log framework. Band variety and detailed trend quality/strength metrics provide practical tools for navigating volatility regimes and assessing trend reliability — features not commonly combined in one overlay. Usage Suggestions Crypto: Anchor to GLI/M2 for liquidity context; ATR bands help manage volatility. Watch high z-score/percentile or low trend quality for reversals. Equities/Commodities: Gold for inflation views, S&P for market ties; static sigma for stable benchmarks. General Tips: Use log scale for visual alignment. Offset (default 90) projects fair value forward. Leverage table metrics — e.g., quality >80% for stronger trends, strength icons for momentum conviction, valuation extremes for mean-reversion ideas. Test anchors and scales to fit your market. This is an exploratory relative-valuation overlay — results vary by anchor, conditions, and settings. Not financial advice; backtest thoroughly and verify independently. Notes Pine Script v6; requires access to external symbols via request.security(). Minor repainting possible on realtime bars due to smoothing and external data. Community feedback welcome for refinements!
Индикатор Pine Script®
от PaulWegelin
Historical Annual Avg Growth Lines + 1-Year ProjectionThis script creates an overlay indicator on your TradingView chart that visualizes the historical average annual growth rate of the selected instrument (e.g., TSLA) in a specific way. Here's a step-by-step summary of what it represents and how it works: Overall Purpose It calculates the average annual percentage gain (arithmetic mean) across the instrument's entire trading history, using non-overlapping periods of 252 trading days each (approximating one year, excluding weekends/holidays). It then draws horizontal green lines on the chart for each complete "year" segment, showing a projected "fair value" price level for that year based on the overall average growth rate. This helps you compare actual historical price action against what the price "would have been" if it had grown steadily at the stock's long-term average annual rate. Lines above actual prices suggest periods where growth exceeded the average (potentially overvalued in hindsight), while lines below suggest underperformance (potentially undervalued). The calculation excludes the most recent incomplete year (any bars beyond the last full 252-day segment), ensuring only fully realized historical periods are used. Key Calculations Identifying Complete Years: It divides the chart's data from the first trading day (bar_index 0) into segments of exactly 252 bars each. For example: Year 1: Bars 0 to 251 Year 2: Bars 252 to 503 And so on, up to the last full segment before the current bar. If the total bars aren't a perfect multiple of 252, the partial current year is ignored. Average Annual % Gain: For each complete year segment: It computes the % gain as (end_price - start_price) / start_price. Sums these % gains across all years and divides by the number of years to get the overall average (e.g., if TSLA averaged 42% per year historically, that's the value used). Projected Price Lines: For each year segment: Takes the starting price of that year. Applies the overall average % gain to project a "target" end-of-year price: start_price * (1 + average_annual_gain). Draws a horizontal line at that projected price level, spanning only the bars of that specific year (e.g., a flat green line covering 252 bars, positioned above or below the actual price action for visual comparison). Visual Representation Horizontal Lines: Each green line is flat and covers one historical year block on the chart. Earlier years (left side) will have lower projected prices (reflecting lower starting prices), while later years (right side) will have higher ones as the base price compounds over time—but each is independent and based on that year's start. No Smoothing or Rolling: Unlike a moving average, these are static historical segments (non-overlapping), recalculated only on the last bar for efficiency. Example on TSLA: Assuming TSLA's long-term average annual gain is ~42% (based on its history since 2010 IPO), the line for Year 1 would be at * 1.42, spanning the first 252 bars. Year 2 would start from the actual price at bar 252 and project * 1.42, and so on. If lines are consistently above actual prices in recent years, it might indicate recent growth slowing relative to historical averages. Forward Projection (1 Year Out) The script also extends a dashed orange horizontal line to the right of the current bar, projecting the price one year into the future based on the same historical average annual growth rate. It starts from the end price of the last complete historical year as the base. Applies the average % gain once more to estimate the "target" price after another 252 trading days (e.g., base_price * (1 + average_annual_gain)). The line is dashed and orange for distinction, extending approximately 252 bars to the right (scroll or zoom right to view the full projection). This provides a visual guide for where the price "might" trend if growth continues at the historical average, helping with long-term investment planning like setting targets or assessing potential upside.
Индикатор Pine Script®
от toppermost
1
Auto-DCF and Margin of Safety SetupDescription Overview This indicator provides a dual-layered approach to stock valuation by combining a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model with Technical Momentum filters. It is designed for investors who seek to align fundamental "Fair Value" with high-probability technical entry points. How It Works The script automates the valuation process by fetching real-time financial data directly from TradingView’s database. Fundamental Valuation (DCF): FCF Projections: It retrieves Free Cash Flow (TTM) and Total Shares Outstanding to calculate FCF per share. Growth & Discounting: It projects FCF forward for 10 years based on your "Expected Annual Growth Rate" and discounts those values back to the present using the "Discount Rate" (WACC). Terminal Value: A terminal value is calculated using a exit multiple (P/FCF) at Year 10 to account for the company's value beyond the projection period. Intrinsic Value: The sum of all discounted cash flows and the terminal value represents the Intrinsic (Fair) Value, plotted as gray circles. Margin of Safety (MoS): A "Buy Limit" line (green) is plotted at a user-defined percentage below the Intrinsic Value. This represents the "Margin of Safety" popularized by Benjamin Graham to account for errors in estimation. Technical Filters (The "Buy Setup"): A visual Buy Zone appears only when three conditions align: Value: Price is trading below the Margin of Safety. Momentum: The RSI is in "Oversold" territory (default < 35). Price Action: The stock is in a "Deep Pullback" (defined as a 15% drop from its 50-bar high). How to Use Settings: You must adjust the Growth Rate and Discount Rate based on the specific company’s historical performance and risk profile. Visuals: When a setup occurs, the script draws a green box, a technical Stop Loss (based on a buffer below the low), and a Tech Target (a 50% retracement of the recent drop). Limitations: This script requires request.financial data. It is intended for Stocks only. If no financial data is available for a ticker (e.g., Crypto or Forex), an error label will appear. Disclaimer This script is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. DCF models are highly sensitive to input variables; small changes in growth or discount rates can significantly alter the Fair Value.
Индикатор Pine Script®
от TheTankTrades
ICT Bias ProICT Bias Pro: Dashboard + First Hour Range & Session FVGs This indicator is a comprehensive "Bias Builder" designed for traders who follow Inner Circle Trader (ICT) concepts. It combines a multi-timeframe trend dashboard with a specific intraday strategy derived from ICT's recent teaching: "How Do I Engage Markets When I Don't Have An Initial Bias?" The tool is designed to help traders find confluence between the Macro trend (Daily/4H) and the Micro execution (15M/5M) during the New York AM Session. Features & Methodology 1. Multi-Timeframe Bias Dashboard Located in the corner of your chart, this dashboard provides a quick "Traffic Light" view of the market structure across 4 key timeframes: Daily & 4-Hour: Establishes the macro direction. 15-Min & 5-Min: Monitors intraday order flow. Logic: Bias is determined by comparing price relative to the 20 EMA and checking for Market Structure alignment. Green = Bullish, Red = Bearish. 2. The "First Hour" Trading Range (No-Bias Strategy) Following ICT’s specific logic for days when bias is unclear, this tool automatically highlights the 9:30 AM – 10:30 AM (New York Time) trading range. Range High & Low: Defining the volatility of the opening hour. Equilibrium (50%): The "Line in the Sand." Price holding above the 50% signals bullish strength (Premium); price below signals bearish weakness (Discount). Quadrants (25% & 75%): Deep discount/premium zones for precision entries. 3. Session-Specific Fair Value Gaps (FVG) The indicator automatically detects and draws Fair Value Gaps that form only within that critical first hour of trading. Auto-Extension: Boxes extend to the right until price "mitigates" (fills) them. Consequent Encroachment (C.E.): Automatically plots the 50% dashed line inside every FVG, a key institutional support/resistance level. Smart Mitigation: Once a gap is filled, the box changes color (user-selectable) to indicate it is no longer an active magnet. How to Use This Indicator This tool is designed to identify Confluence: Check the Dashboard: Look for alignment on the Daily and 4H timeframes (e.g., Both Green). Wait for 10:30 AM EST: Allow the script to draw the First Hour Range. Trade the Confluence: Bullish Setup: If the Dashboard is Green, look for price to hold above the 50% Equilibrium of the First Hour Range. Look for entries inside Bullish FVGs that form near the 50% or 75% levels. Bearish Setup: If the Dashboard is Red, look for price to reject the 50% Equilibrium and stay in the lower half. Target Bearish FVGs near the 50% or 25% levels. Settings & Customization Dashboard Toggle: Show or hide the table to keep charts clean. Colors: Fully customizable colors for Range High/Low, FVGs (Bullish/Bearish), and Mitigated gaps. Text Positioning: Adjust FVG labels (Left/Center/Right) to prevent visual clutter on candles. Credits & Attribution Concept: Inner Circle Trader (Michael Huddleston). Core Strategy: Based on the video "How Do I Engage Markets When I Don't Have An Initial Bias?" Disclaimer: This tool is for educational purposes only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Индикатор Pine Script®
от DivergentTrades
Blockcircle Price Gaps (PG)I got tired of price gap indicators that dump every zone on the chart and leave you to figure out which ones actually matter. I have tried every single one imaginable. Therefore, I built this one to score each gap automatically based on how close it is, how it formed, and whether it aligns with the trend. Instead of cryptic numbers, it just tells you: Strong, Moderate, or Weak, plus how far away it is. You see what matters, skip what doesn't. Hopefully, you find it helpful! If you have other ideas to improve it even further, please let me know, and I can integrate them. WHAT MAKES IT ORIGINAL AND DIFFERENT Standard gap indicators display every detected imbalance with identical visual treatment, leaving traders to manually assess which zones matter. This creates cluttered charts and analysis paralysis. This BLOCKCIRCLE PRICE GAPS (PG) indicator solves that problem with a Relevance Engine that automatically scores each gap from 0 to 100 and translates scores into plain language: Strong, Moderate, or Weak. Each zone displays its strength rating and distance from the current price, so you instantly know which gaps deserve attention and how far the price must travel to reach them. The scoring combines four factors that research shows correlate with zone effectiveness: Proximity: Gaps closer to the current price score higher because nearby zones influence immediate price action more than distant ones. Formation Volume: Gaps created during above-average volume suggest institutional activity rather than random price movement. Impulse Strength: Gaps formed by strong moves (measured against ATR) indicate genuine supply/demand imbalance rather than noise. Trend Alignment: Support gaps in uptrends and resistance gaps in downtrends receive bonus points for trading with momentum. Visual intensity reflects strength automatically. Strong zones appear darker and more prominent. Weak zones fade into the background. You see what matters without decoding numbers. HOW IT WORKS Price Gaps form when aggressive buying or selling creates an imbalance, leaving unfilled space between candles. These zones often act as support (bullish gaps below price) or resistance (bearish gaps above price) when the price returns to them. Detection uses the standard three-candle method: a bullish gap exists when the current low exceeds the high from two bars prior. A bearish gap exists when the current high falls below the low from two bars prior. What makes this implementation different is continuous relevance tracking . Each bar, every gap receives an updated score based on current conditions . As the price moves away, the proximity scores decrease. As gaps age, time decay gradually reduces their overall relevance. When capacity limits are reached, the lowest-scoring gap is removed first, ensuring your chart always shows the most actionable zones. Labels show practical information: Strength rating (Strong, Moderate, or Weak) Zone type (Support or Resistance) Distance from current price with direction (+12% means above, -8% means below) FEATURES Relevance scoring with automatic strength classification Plain-language labels showing strength and distance Color intensity that reflects zone importance Retest detection when price returns to unfilled gaps Proximity filtering to hide distant zones Age filtering to remove stale gaps Size filtering for minimum and maximum gap thresholds Relevance-based capacity management Information panel with zone counts and trend context Multiple label style options HOW THE COMPONENTS WORK TOGETHER The system operates as a filtering pipeline: Size filters remove gaps that are too small (market noise) or too large (extreme events unlikely to fill). The Relevance Engine scores qualifying gaps based on proximity, volume, impulse, and trend. Gaps below the minimum score threshold are hidden. Proximity and age filters remove distant or stale gaps. When at capacity, the lowest-scoring gap is removed to make room for new detections. This layered approach ensures only the most relevant gaps appear on your chart. CONFIGURABLE SETTINGS Display Settings control how many zones appear and how they are displayed. Label Style lets you choose what information displays: Strength plus Distance (default), Strength Only, Distance Only, Score Only, or None. Relevance Engine settings include the master toggle and minimum score threshold. The Scoring Weights section allows advanced users to adjust how much each factor contributes. Filters control size thresholds, maximum distance from price, and maximum age in bars. Retest Alerts notify you when the price returns to an unfilled gap with three sensitivity options. Zone Behavior controls whether filled gaps are removed and what counts as a filled gap. HOW TO USE The default settings work well for most timeframes and markets. Strong zones (shown in brighter colors with yellow text) have multiple factors aligned and deserve the most attention. Moderate zones are worth watching. Weak zones provide context but may not produce reliable reactions. For active trading, focus on Strong and Moderate zones within 10% of the current price. These are the most likely to influence near-term price action. For swing trading, expand the Maximum Distance setting to see zones further from the price that may become relevant as trends develop. When the Retest alert fires, the price is returning to an unfilled gap. Evaluate the zone strength, look for price reaction at the zone boundary, and consider whether the move aligns with the broader trend before trading. The information panel shows: Support: Count of bullish gaps (potential buying zones) Resistance: Count of bearish gaps (potential selling zones) Unfilled: Zones not yet touched by price Avg Strength: Overall quality of visible zones Trend: Current direction based on EMA alignment LIMITATIONS Relevance scoring is probabilistic, not predictive. A Strong gap is more likely to produce a reaction based on historical patterns, but any zone can fail. The trend component uses EMA crossovers (20/50/200), which may lag in choppy markets. Distance calculations update each bar. During volatile moves, labels may briefly show different values as price swings. DEFAULTS These are the defaults, but you would adjust and calibrate it to a specific asset, as needed: Maximum Zones: 12 Label Style: Strength + Distance Minimum Score: 20 Maximum Distance: 25% Maximum Age: 300 bars If you have any questions at all, please ask away!
Индикатор Pine Script®
от blockcircle
BTC Fundamental Value Hypothesis [OmegaTools]BTC Fundamental Value Hypothesis is a macro-valuation and regime-detection model designed to contextualize Bitcoin’s price through relative market-cap comparisons against major capital reservoirs: Gold, Silver, the Altcoin market, and large-cap equities. Instead of relying on traditional on-chain metrics or purely technical signals, this tool frames BTC as an asset competing for global liquidity and “store-of-value mindshare”, then estimates an implied fair value based on how BTC historically coexists (or diverges) from these benchmark universes. Core concept: relative market-cap anchoring The indicator builds a reference-based fair price by translating external market capitalizations into implied BTC valuation using a dominance framework. In practice, you choose one or more reference universes (Gold, Silver, Altcoins, Stocks). For each selected universe, the script computes how large BTC “should be” relative to that universe (dominance ratio), and converts that into an implied BTC price. The final fair price is the average of the implied prices from the enabled universes. Two dominance modes: automatic vs manual 1. Automatic Dominance % (default) When enabled, the model estimates dominance ratios dynamically using a 252-period simple moving average of BTC market cap divided by each reference market cap. This produces an adaptive baseline that follows structural changes over time and reduces sensitivity to short-term spikes. 2. Manual Dominance % If you prefer a discretionary macro thesis, you can directly input dominance parameters for each reference universe. This is useful when you want to stress-test scenarios (e.g., “BTC should converge toward X% of Gold’s market cap”) or align the model with a specific long-term adoption narrative. Reference universes and data construction - BTC market cap: pulled from CRYPTOCAP:BTC. - Gold and Silver market caps: derived from the corresponding futures symbols (GC1!, SI1!) multiplied by an assumed total above-ground quantity (constant tonnage converted to troy ounces). This provides a practical and tradable proxy for spot valuation context. - Altcoin market cap: pulled from CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL2 (total crypto market excluding BTC). - Stocks market cap proxy (Σ3): a deliberately conservative equity benchmark built from three mega-cap stocks (AAPL, MSFT, AMZN) using total shares outstanding (request.financial) multiplied by price. This avoids index licensing complexity while still tracking a meaningful slice of global equity beta/liquidity. Valuation output: overvalued vs undervalued (log-based) The valuation readout is expressed as a percentage derived from the logarithmic distance between BTC price and the model’s fair price. This choice makes valuation comparable across long time horizons and reduces distortion during exponential growth phases. A positive valuation indicates BTC trading below the model’s implied value (undervalued), while a negative valuation indicates trading above it (overvalued). Oscillator: relative momentum and regime confirmation In addition to fair value, the indicator includes a momentum differential oscillator built from RSI(50): - BTC RSI is compared to the average RSI of the selected reference universes. - The oscillator highlights when BTC strength is leading or lagging the broader macro benchmarks. - Color is rendered through a gradient to provide immediate regime readability (risk-on vs risk-off behavior, expansion vs contraction phases). Visualization and UI components - Fair Price overlay: the computed fair price is plotted directly on the BTC chart for immediate comparison with spot price action. - Valuation shading: the area between price and fair price is filled to visually emphasize dislocation and potential mean-reversion zones. - Oscillator panel: a zero-centered oscillator with filled bands helps you identify persistent trend regimes versus transitional conditions. - Summary table: a right-side table displays the current valuation (over/under) and, when Automatic mode is enabled, the live dominance ratios used in the model (BTC/GOLD, BTC/SILVER, BTC/ALTC, BTC/STOCKS). How to use it (practical workflows) - Macro valuation context: use fair price as a structural anchor to assess whether BTC is trading at a premium or discount relative to external liquidity baselines. - Regime filtering: combine valuation with the oscillator to distinguish “cheap but weak” from “cheap and strengthening” (and the inverse for tops). - Mean-reversion mapping: large, persistent deviations from fair value often highlight speculative extremes or capitulation zones; this can support systematic entries/exits, position sizing, or hedging decisions. - Scenario analysis: switch to Manual Dominance % to model adoption outcomes, policy-driven shifts, or multi-year re-rating assumptions. Important notes and limitations (read before use) - This is a hypothesis-driven macro model, not a literal intrinsic value calculation. Results depend on dominance assumptions, proxies, and data availability. - Gold/Silver market caps are approximations based on futures pricing and fixed supply constants; real-world supply dynamics, above-ground estimates, and spot/futures basis can differ. - The Stocks (Σ3) benchmark is a proxy and intentionally not “the whole market”. It is designed to represent a large-cap liquidity reference, not total equity capitalization. - Always validate signals with additional context (market structure, volatility regime, risk management rules). This indicator is best used as a macro layer in a broader decision framework. Designed for clarity, macro discipline, and repeatability BTC Fundamental Value Hypothesis by OmegaTools is built for traders and investors who want a clean, data-driven way to interpret BTC through the lens of competing asset classes and capital flows. It is particularly effective on higher timeframes (Daily/Weekly) where macro relationships are more stable and valuation signals are less noisy. © OmegaTools, Eros
Индикатор Pine Script®
от OmegaTools
XRP Athey Mitchnick Implied Price (Ramp + Analytical 2030 Label)This indicator implements a fundamental valuation framework for XRP based on the Athey–Mitchnick cryptoasset valuation model. Unlike traditional technical indicators (RSI, MACD, etc.), this tool is not designed to predict short-term price movements. Instead, it models what XRP should be worth over time under explicit adoption and demand assumptions. It answers the question: If XRP becomes a real settlement rail and a long-term store of value, what price would be required for the system to function? What This Indicator Adds This implementation extends the static Athey–Mitchnick model by introducing a time-based ramp: 1. Adoption grows over time You specify: TV CAGR (%) SoV CAGR (%) These values compound annually from a start date to an end date (e.g., 2030), producing a dynamic implied valuation curve. 2. Terminal 2030 price is computed analytically The indicator explicitly computes the implied price at the target year (e.g., 2030) and displays it as: “2030 Implied Price = $X” This is done analytically, so the chart does not need to extend to 2030 for you to see the terminal valuation. 3. This is not a trading indicator This model is not designed for: Scalping Breakouts Entry timing Momentum trading It is designed for: Long-term valuation anchoring Scenario modeling Macro thesis testing Adoption-based forecasting Narrative vs fundamentals comparison How to Read the Chart Market Price (Close) This is the actual XRP market price. It reflects: Speculation Liquidity Leverage Narrative Emotion Implied Price (Ramp) This is the fundamental valuation curve. It shows what XRP’s price would need to be at each point in time for your adoption and store-of-value assumptions to be true. Bands (Optional) The ±% bands are valuation tolerance zones. They are not volatility bands. They help visualize: Overvaluation Undervaluation Reversion zones 2030 Label The label: 2030 Implied Price = $X represents the terminal valuation implied by your assumptions. This is the most important output of the model. What Makes the Price Go Higher To increase the implied 2030 price, one or more of these must change: 1. Higher Transaction Adoption (TV) Inputs: TV0 TV CAGR % This reflects real-world economic usage. Higher TV means XRP is settling more real value per day. Examples: Cross-border payments Tokenized assets Treasury settlement Interbank liquidity rails 2. Higher Store-of-Value Demand (SoV) Inputs: SoV0 SoV CAGR % This reflects long-term holding demand. This is the most powerful driver of long-term price. It models: Institutional holdings Strategic reserves Collateral usage Long-term investor behavior 3. Lower Velocity Input: Velocity V Lower velocity means XRP must be held longer to support the same transaction volume. This implies: Reserve-like behavior Collateralization Treasury holding Structural stickiness Price is inversely proportional to velocity. 4. Lower Effective Supply Inputs: Supply0 Supply CAGR Supply cap If XRP becomes locked, escrowed, staked, or structurally held, the effective circulating supply shrinks, increasing price. Why This Matters Most crypto price models are: Technical Reflexive Narrative-driven Non-falsifiable This one is: Structural Adoption-based Testable Falsifiable If XRP never achieves the adoption implied by your inputs, the model will not justify high prices. This indicator is a forward-looking valuation engine, not a trading tool. It shows: What XRP’s price must be for your beliefs about its future to be true. It forces clarity. It forces discipline. And it converts stories into structure.
Индикатор Pine Script®
от crypticav7776
Value Area PRO (TPO/Volume Session VAH/VAL/POC) 📌 AP Capital Value Area PRO (TPO / Volume) AP Capital Value Area PRO is a session-based value area indicator designed for Gold (XAUUSD), NASDAQ (NAS100), and other CFD instruments. It focuses on where the market has accepted price during the current session and highlights high-probability interaction zones used by professional traders. Unlike rolling lookback volume profiles, this indicator builds a true session value area and provides actionable signals around VAH, VAL, and POC. 🔹 Core Features Session-Anchored Value Area Value Area is built only during the selected session Resets cleanly at session start Levels develop during the session and can be extended forward No repainting or shifting due to lookback changes TPO or Volume Mode TPO (Time-at-Price) mode – ideal for CFDs and tick-volume data Volume mode – uses broker volume if preferred Same logic, different weighting method Fixed Price Bin Size Uses a fixed bin size (e.g. 0.10 for Gold, 0.25–0.50 for NAS100) Produces cleaner, more realistic VAH/VAL levels Avoids distorted profiles caused by dynamic bin scaling VAH / VAL / POC Levels VAH (Value Area High) VAL (Value Area Low) POC (Point of Control) (optional) Lines can be extended to act as forward reference levels 🔹 Trading Signals & Alerts Value Re-Entry Identifies false breakouts where price: Trades outside value Then closes back inside Often seen before strong mean-reversion or continuation moves. Acceptance Detects initiative activity using: Multiple consecutive closes outside value Filters out weak single-candle breaks Rejection Flags strong rejection candles: Large candle body Wick outside value Close back inside the value area These conditions are especially effective on Gold intraday. 🔹 Optional Profile Histogram Right-side volume/TPO histogram Buy/sell imbalance visualization Fully optional to reduce chart clutter and improve performance 🔹 Best Use Cases Recommended markets XAUUSD (Gold) NAS100 / US100 Other index or metal CFDs Recommended timeframes 5m, 15m, 30m Suggested settings Mode: TPO Value Area: 70% Bin size: Gold: 0.10 NAS100: 0.25 or 0.50 🔹 How Traders Use It Trade rejections at VAH / VAL Look for acceptance to confirm trend days Use re-entries to fade failed breakouts Combine with trend filters, EMA structure, or session context ⚠️ Disclaimer This indicator is provided for educational and analytical purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always manage risk appropriately.
Индикатор Pine Script®
от APCapitalTrading
Performance Table: Standard DCA | Last 6-12-24-48MThis indicator visualizes Standard Dollar-Cost Averaging (DCA) performance across multiple time horizons (6M, 12M, 24M, 48M). It summarizes invested capital, current portfolio value, net profit, and return percentage in a compact table, allowing quick comparison of short- and long-term DCA outcomes. Designed for long-term investors, it helps evaluate how consistent periodic investments perform over time without relying on market timing. The indicator is asset-agnostic and works on any symbol supported by TradingView. Key use cases: Long-term portfolio tracking DCA strategy validation Performance comparison across periods Educational and analytical purposes This tool focuses on clarity and realism, avoiding over-optimization and short-term noise. -- I hope this table helps investors better understand long-term DCA performance. Feedback and suggestions for improvement are always welcome.
Индикатор Pine Script®
от sedatonat
A Humbled Trader Strategy + ChecklistHumbled Trader Swing Strategy + Checklist This indicator is a complete swing trading system based on the high-probability strategies popularized by Humbled Trader. It is designed to help traders identify trend breakouts and low-risk momentum pullbacks on the Daily Timeframe. The script combines trend filtering, automated resistance lines, and specific entry triggers into a single chart overlay, complete with a real-time Strategy Checklist Dashboard to confirm your setups instantly. 🎯 Core Components Trend Filter (Purple Line): The 200 Simple Moving Average (SMA). This acts as your long-term trend filter. We only look for long trades when the price is above this line. Momentum Guide (Orange Line): The 8 Exponential Moving Average (EMA). This tracks short-term momentum. In a strong trend, price will "ride" this line. We look to enter when price pulls back to touch this area. Multi-Month Resistance (Orange Horizontal Line): Automatically plots the highest price over the last X Months (adjustable). This helps you instantly visualize the key level the stock needs to break out from. Checklist Dashboard: A real-time table that evaluates Trend, Resistance, and Momentum conditions to give you a clear "✅ ENTER", "🚀 GAP UP", or "⏳ WAIT" signal. 🛠 How It Works This indicator scans for two specific setups: 1. The Daily Gap Up ("GAP" Label) This signal appears when a stock shows strong momentum by gapping up overnight. Condition: The stock opens at least 3% higher (adjustable) than the previous day's Close AND opens above the previous day's High. Trend: Must be above the 200 SMA. Visual: Marked with a green "GAP" label on the chart. 2. The Trend Pullback ("ENTER" Signal) This is a trend-following entry that lets you join an existing move with lower risk. Condition: The stock is in an uptrend but dips down to touch or test the 8 EMA. Validation: The candle must show a "dip" (red candle or lower close) to ensure we are buying a pullback, not chasing a top. Visual: The Dashboard "Action Signal" will turn orange and display "✅ ENTER". 📋 The Checklist Dashboard Located in the corner of your chart, this table provides a live status report for the current bar: Trend (> 200 SMA): 🟢 Bullish: Price is in an uptrend. Safe to look for entries. 🔴 Bearish: Price is below the 200 SMA. Stay away. Above Resistance?: 🟢 Breakout: Price has cleared the multi-month resistance line. ⚪ ---: Price is currently below the key breakout level. Near 8 EMA?: 🟢 Yes: Price is near the "value zone" (8 EMA) for a potential pullback entry. Action Signal: 🚀 GAP UP: Strong momentum gap detected. ✅ ENTER: Valid pullback entry detected. ⏳ WAIT: No clear setup found. ⚙️ Settings Momentum EMA Length: Default is 8. Controls the sensitivity of the pullback line. Trend SMA Length: Default is 200. The standard for long-term trend filtering. Gap Up % Threshold: Default is 3.0%. Minimum overnight gap size required to trigger a signal. Resistance Lookback (Months): Default is 3. The script will look back this many months to find and draw the key resistance line. Table Position: Move the checklist to any corner of your screen. ⚠️ Disclaimer This tool is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always manage your risk and use a stop loss.
Индикатор Pine Script®
от BullishBullRising
Gold/Silver Ratio with Supply ZonesGold/Silver Ratio with Supply Zones Overview Professional-grade indicator that tracks the Gold/Silver Ratio in real-time Identifies potential market imbalances and rotation opportunities between precious metals Features customizable threshold bands, moving averages, and automated trading signals Built on Pine Script v6 for maximum stability and performance Key Features Real-Time Ratio Calculation : Automatically calculates Gold/Silver ratio using OANDA:XAUUSD and OANDA:XAGUSD price feeds Dynamic Threshold Zones : Visual bands showing when silver or gold may be undervalued relative to each other Moving Average Overlay : 20-period SMA to identify trend direction and momentum Automated Buy Signals : Triangle markers appear when ratio reaches extreme levels Live Information Table : Displays current ratio, moving average, individual metal prices, and market interpretation Custom Alerts : Set notifications when ratio crosses your defined thresholds Color-Coded Zones : Green zones indicate gold undervaluation, red zones indicate silver undervaluation Trading Applications Mean Reversion Strategy : Enter silver positions when ratio exceeds 90, enter gold when ratio falls below 70 Rotation Trading : Switch between metals based on relative value signals Portfolio Rebalancing : Identify optimal times to adjust precious metals allocation Divergence Analysis : Compare ratio behavior against individual metal price action Default Settings High Threshold : 90.0 (Silver undervalued zone) Low Threshold : 70.0 (Gold undervalued zone) Moving Average : 20-period SMA Historical Reference : 80:1 ratio marked as long-term mean How to Interpret Ratio Above 90 : Silver is undervalued relative to gold - consider increasing silver exposure Ratio Below 70 : Gold is undervalued relative to silver - consider increasing gold exposure Ratio Between 70-90 : Neutral range - no clear relative value advantage Rising Ratio : Gold outperforming silver Falling Ratio : Silver outperforming gold Signal Logic Green Triangle (Bottom) : Ratio crosses above high threshold → Buy Silver Signal Red Triangle (Top) : Ratio crosses below low threshold → Buy Gold Signal MA Crossovers : Use 20-period MA for trend confirmation and entry timing Visual Elements Blue Line : Current gold/silver ratio value Orange Line : 20-period moving average smoothing Red Shaded Zone : Area where gold is relatively expensive Green Shaded Zone : Area where gold is relatively cheap Gray Dotted Line : Historical mean at 80:1 Info Table : Real-time statistics and market interpretation Best Practices Use on daily timeframe or higher for most reliable signals Combine with volume analysis and individual metal technicals Monitor Federal Reserve policy and USD strength as macro context Consider industrial demand factors for silver (solar, EV, electronics) Watch safe-haven flows during economic uncertainty for gold Customization Options Adjust threshold levels based on your preferred lookback period Modify moving average length to suit your trading timeframe Toggle bands on/off for cleaner chart visualization Change data source tickers if using different brokers (FXCM, FOREXCOM, etc.) Alert Conditions Silver Undervalued Alert : Triggers when ratio crosses above your high threshold Gold Undervalued Alert : Triggers when ratio crosses below your low threshold Receive notifications via TradingView mobile app , email , or webhook Who This Is For Precious metals traders seeking relative value opportunities Portfolio managers balancing gold and silver allocations Macro traders using metals as inflation hedges Swing traders capitalizing on mean reversion patterns Long-term investors optimizing entry points Important Notes This indicator tracks price ratios , not physical supply data COMEX warehouse stocks are not directly available in TradingView Ratio analysis assumes historical mean reversion tendencies Always combine with fundamental analysis and risk management Past performance does not guarantee future results Data Sources Gold Price : OANDA:XAUUSD (spot gold in US dollars) Silver Price : OANDA:XAGUSD (spot silver in US dollars) Update Frequency : Real-time during market hours Historical Data : Full TradingView historical coverage available
Индикатор Pine Script®
от bigcitytom
Daily/Weekly FVG by KrisThis indicator is a Multi-Timeframe (MTF) tool designed to automatically identify and project Fair Value Gaps (Imbalances) from Daily and Weekly timeframes onto your current chart. It helps traders locate higher-timeframe Areas of Interest (POI) and liquidity voids without manually switching charts. How it works: The script utilizes `request.security` to fetch High and Low data from Daily and Weekly timeframes. It identifies a Fair Value Gap (FVG) based on the 3-candle formation logic where price moves inefficiently, leaving a gap between the wicks. - Bullish FVG: Identified when the current Daily/Weekly Low is greater than the High of the candle from 2 periods ago. - Bearish FVG: Identified when the current Daily/Weekly High is lower than the Low of the candle from 2 periods ago. The indicator draws a box extending to the right to visualize the zone, along with a dotted midline which often acts as a sensitive support/resistance level. Unique Feature: Smart Mitigation (Auto-Hide) To keep your chart clean and focused on relevant data, the script includes a "Full Fill" logic. It continuously monitors price action relative to existing FVG boxes. - If price completely crosses through a box (fully fills the gap), the indicator considers it "mitigated" and automatically hides the box and its midline (sets transparency to 100%). - This ensures you only see "fresh" or unfilled gaps that are still relevant for trading. Settings: - TF Checkboxes (Daily/Weekly FVG): Toggle the visibility of Daily or Weekly gaps independently based on your analysis needs. - Design Mode: Colored: Uses classic Green (Bullish) and Red (Bearish) colors for easy trend identification. Monochrome: Uses Gray tones for a minimalist look that reduces visual noise on the chart. Usage: Use these zones to identify potential reversal points or liquidity targets. Since these are higher-timeframe levels, they often carry more weight than intraday imbalances.
Индикатор Pine Script®
от KRISTRADER1
5
Auction Context Engine ( Value Area, VWAP & Regime)📌 Indicator Name Auction Context Engine (Value Area, VWAP & Regime) Short name: ACE Context 🧠 Description Auction Context Engine (ACE) is a professional market context and structure indicator based on Auction Market Theory.It is designed to help traders understand where the market is positioned, not to generate trade signals. ACE focuses on: • Developing Value Area (VAH / VAL) • Developing Point of Control (POC) • Session VWAP positioning • Volatility regime expansion • Opening Range context • Failed auction / trap detection • Market bias and environment quality This indicator provides context only and is intended to be used alongside a separate execution strategy or system. 🎯 What This Indicator Is ✔ A context engine ✔ A market structure filter ✔ A bias alignment tool ✔ A regime and environment classifier ❌ What This Indicator Is NOT ✘ Not a signal generator ✘ Not a buy/sell system ✘ Not a strategy ✘ Not a profitability promise 📊 How To Use Use ACE to answer: • Is price accepting or rejecting value? • Is the market in balance or expansion? • Is VWAP supporting or opposing price? • Is this a breakout environment or a trap? • Is volatility expanding? • Is the market trending or ranging? You may then use your own execution strategy aligned with this context. 🟢 Core Components Developing Value Area • VAH / VAL dynamically update through the session • POC tracks highest traded volume area VWAP Position • Above VWAP = bullish bias • Below VWAP = bearish bias Opening Range Context • Detects breakouts or balance after session open Volatility Regime • Identifies expansion vs normal conditions Failed Auction Detection • Highlights trap conditions near value extremes Market Quality • Strong / Mixed / Weak environment classification Context Table • Clean 1-column vertical dashboard with color-coded bias 🔵 Visual Elements • Developing VAH, VAL, POC lines • Session VWAP • Small context dots when environment turns READY • Compact professional context table ⚙️ Settings • Value Area bin size • Value area percentage • Opening range duration • Regime expansion factor • Line colors and thickness • Context table ON/OFF • Context dots ON/OFF 🧩 Best Use Case This indicator is ideal for: • Intraday trading • Index futures and equities • Options context filtering • Trend / range regime identification • Professional discretionary traders ⚠️ Disclaimer This script is provided for educational and informational purposes only.It does not constitute financial or investment advice.Trading involves risk. Always use proper risk management.
Индикатор Pine Script®
от Market_Logic_India
Dolar MEP Implicito de CEDEARs y ADRs**Implicit USD Exchange Rate from CEDEARs and ADRs** This indicator calculates the implicit ARS/USD exchange rate using CEDEAR pairs traded on the Argentine stock exchange (BYMA). It compares the ARS price of a CEDEAR against its USD MEP version (D-suffix ticker) to derive the implicit dollar rate. **How it works:** Divide the ARS ticker price by the D-suffix ticker price. Example: AAPL / AAPLD = Implicit rate. **Features:** • Top 10 CEDEARs ranked by 30-day average volume • AL30/AL30D bond benchmark as white reference line • Filter: Top 5, Top 10, or All • Custom ticker input field • Info box with best buy and best sell rates • Colored labels for each ticker **Default Tickers:** PAMP, GGAL, AMZN, IBIT, GOOGL, NVDA, MELI, VIST, NFLX, GLD **Usage:** Apply to any chart. Works independently of chart symbol. **Disclaimer:** For informational and educational purposes only. Eco Valores S.A. does NOT provide investment advice. Consult a qualified financial advisor before investing. Eco Valores S.A. - ALyC 109/CNV
Индикатор Pine Script®
от Eco Valores
Implicit Dolar MEPWhich stock or CEDEAR offers the best implied MEP dollar rate? This indicator displays labels positioned at the level of the implied MEP dollar rate for the 10 equity instruments (stocks, CEDEARs and ETFs) with the highest trading volume in MEP dollars over the last month on the BYMA market. The implied rate for each asset is calculated as the ratio between its price in ARS and its price in MEP dollars, for example: GGAL / GGALD. As a reference (benchmark), a white line is plotted representing the implied MEP dollar rate of the AL30 bond, calculated as AL30 / AL30D, which is the most liquid government bond in the BYMA market. Settings • The user may enter the ticker of any bi-currency instrument (fixed income or equity) to add its label to the chart. Key information An information box highlights: • The asset with the most expensive implied dollar (Best SELL). • The asset with the cheapest implied dollar (Best BUY). Not an investment recommendation. This information is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute an offer, solicitation, or investment advice. Investment decisions are the sole responsibility of the investor.
Индикатор Pine Script®
от Eco Valores
Relative Value & Risk Analytics DashboardThis is your risk-adjusted alpha analysis tool - exactly what hedge fund and insurance company clients want to see. Attractiveness Score | Composite score combining RV and Risk (0-100) Relative Performance | vs Benchmark (SET/SPY), RS Ratio Trend, 52W Position, Spread Z-Score Risk Metrics | Beta, Alpha, Sharpe, Sortino, Information Ratio, Volatility Correlation | Benchmark Correlation, R-Squared, Regime Change Detection Pair Trade | Peer Correlation, Pair Z-Score, Long/Short Signals Factor Exposure | Momentum (1/3/6M), Mean Reversion Signal, Distance from SMA50 Drawdown | Current DD, Max DD, Recovery Needed, Ulcer Index, Calmar, VaR Key Features: Benchmark-Relative Analysis: Compare any stock vs SET Index or any other benchmark Pair Trade Signals: Automatically generates long/short signals based on Z-score Risk-Adjusted Returns: Sharpe, Sortino, Information Ratio - what your clients actually care about Regime Change Detection: Alert when correlation dynamics shift Drawdown Risk: VaR, Ulcer Index, Calmar Ratio for risk-conscious clients
Индикатор Pine Script®
от bitzuist
FAIRPRICE_VWAP_RDFAIRPRICE_VWAP_RD This script plots an **anchored VWAP (Volume Weighted Average Price)** that resets based on the user-selected anchor period. It acts as a dynamic “fair value” line that reflects where the market has actually transacted during the chosen period. FEATURES - Multiple anchor options: Session, Week, Month, Quarter, Year, Decade, Century, Earnings, Dividends, or Splits. - Intelligent handling of the “Session” anchor so it works correctly on both 1m (resets each new day) and 1D (continuous, non-resetting VWAP). - Manual VWAP calculation using cumulative(price * volume) and cumulative(volume), ensuring the line is stable and works on all timeframes. - Optional hiding of VWAP on daily or higher charts. - Offset input for horizontal shifting if desired. - VWAP provides a true “fair price” reference for trend, mean-reversion, and institutional-level analysis. PURPOSE This indicator solves the common problem of VWAP behaving incorrectly on higher timeframes, on synthetic data, or with unusual anchors. By implementing VWAP manually and allowing flexible reset conditions, it functions reliably as an institutional-style fair value benchmark across any timeframe.
Индикатор Pine Script®
от ryandebraal
ICT Fair Value Gap (FVG) Detector │ Auto-Mitigated │ 2025Accurate ICT / Smart Money Concepts Fair Value Gap (FVG) detector Features: • Detects both Bullish (-FVG) and Bearish (+FVG) using strict 3-candle rule • Boxes automatically extend right until price mitigates them • Boxes auto-delete when price closes inside the gap (true mitigation) • No repainting – 100% reliable • Clean, lightweight, and works on all markets & timeframes • Fully customizable colors and transparency How to use: – Bullish FVG (green) = potential support / buy zone in uptrend – Bearish FVG (red) = potential resistance / sell zone in downtrend Exactly matches The Inner Circle Trader (ICT) methodology used by thousands of SMC traders in 2024–2025. Enjoy and trade safe!
Индикатор Pine Script®
от keerthanamurugesan
1
Market Extreme Zones IndexThe Market Extreme Zones Index is a new mean reversion (valuation) tool focused on catching long term oversold/overbought zones. Combining an enhanced RSI with a smoothed Z-score this indicator allows traders to find oppurtunities during highly oversold/overbought zones. I will separate the explanation into the following parts: 1. How does it work? 2. Methodologies & Concepts 3. Use cases How does it work? The indicator attempts to catch highly unprobable events in either direction to capture reversal points over the long term. This is done by calculating the Z-Score of an enhanced RSI. First we need to calculate the Enhanced RSI: For this we need to calculate 2 additional lengths: Length1 = user defined length Length2 = Length1/2 Length3 = √Length Now we need to calculate 3 different RSIs: 1st RSI => uses classic user defined source and classic user defined length. 2nd RSI => uses classic user defined source and Length 2. 3rd RSI => uses RSI 2 as source and Length 2 Now calculate the divergence: RSI_base => 2nd RSI * 3 - 1st RSI - 3rd RSI After this we need to calculate the median of the RSI_base over √Length and make a divergence of these 2: RSI => RSI_base*2 - median All that remains now is the Z-score calculations: We need: Average RSI value Standard Deviation = a measure of how dispersed or spread out a set of data values are from their average Z-score = (Current Value - Average Value) / Standard Deviation After this we just smooth the Z-score with a Weighted Moving average with √Length Methodology & Concepts Mean Reversion Methodology: The methodology behind mean reversion is the theory that asset prices will eventually return to their long-term average after deviating significantly, driven by the belief that extreme moves are temporary. Z-Score Methodology: A Z-score, or standard score, is a statistical measure that indicates how many standard deviations a data point is from the mean of a dataset. A positive z-score means the value is above the mean, a negative score means it's below, and a score of zero means the value is equal to the mean. You might already be able to see where I am going with this: Z-Score could be used for the extreme moves to capture reversal points. By applying it to the RSI rather than the Price, we get a more accurate measurement that allow us to get a banger indicator. Use Cases Capturing reversal points Trend Direction - while the main use it for mean reversion, the values can indicate whether we are in an uptrend or a downtrend. Advantages: Visualization: The indicator has many plots to ensure users can easily see what the indicator signals, such as highlighting extreme conditions with background colors. Versatility: This indicator works across multiple assets, including the S&P500 and more, so it is not only for crypto. Final note: No indicator alone is perfect. Backtests are not indicative of future performance. Hope you enjoy Gs! Good luck!
Индикатор Pine Script®
от MisinkoMaster
PE Fair ValueIn short, it’s an automated fair value estimator based on the price-to-earnings model, with full manual control if TradingView’s fundamental data is missing. Summary: 1. Lets the user choose the EPS source – either automatically from TradingView fundamentals (EPS TTM) or a manual value. 2. Attempts to fetch the stock’s P/E ratio (TTM) automatically; if unavailable, it uses a manual fallback P/E. 3. Calculates: Actual P/E = current price ÷ EPS Fair Value = EPS × chosen (auto/manual) P/E Percentage difference between market price and fair value 4. Plots the fair-value line on the chart for visual comparison. 5. Displays a table in the top-right corner showing: EPS used Target P/E Actual P/E Fair value Current price Difference vs fair value (colored green or red) 6. Creates alerts when the stock is trading above or below the calculated fair value. 7. Also plots the current closing price for reference.
Индикатор Pine Script®
от joakimandersson7803
Ben's BTC Macro Fair Value OscillatorBen's BTC Macro Fair Value Oscillator Overview The **BTC Macro Fair Value Oscillator** is a non-crypto fair value framework that uses macro asset relationships (equities, dollar, gold) to estimate Bitcoin's "macro-driven fair value" and identify mean-reversion opportunities. "Is BTC cheap or expensive right now?" on the 4 Hour Timeframe ONLY ### Key Features ✅ **Macro-driven**: Uses QQQ, DXY, XAUUSD instead of on-chain or crypto metrics ✅ **Dynamic weighting**: Assets weighted by rolling correlation strength ✅ **Mean-reversion signals**: Identifies when BTC is cheap/expensive vs macro ✅ **Validated parameters**: Optimized through 5-year backtest (Sharpe 6.7-9.9) ✅ **Visual transparency**: Live correlation panel, fair value bands, statistics ✅ **Non-repainting**: All calculations use confirmed historical data only ### What This Indicator Does - Builds a **synthetic macro composite** from traditional assets - Runs a **rolling regression** to predict BTC price from macro - Calculates **deviation z-score** (how far BTC is from macro fair value) - Generates **entry signals** when BTC is extremely cheap vs macro (dev < -2) - Generates **exit signals** when BTC returns to fair value (dev > 0) ### What This Indicator Is NOT ❌ Not a high-frequency trading system (sparse signals by design) ❌ Not optimized for absolute returns (optimized for Sharpe ratio) ❌ Not suitable as standalone trading system (best as overlay/confirmation) ❌ Not predictive of short-term price movements (mean-reversion timeframe: days to weeks) --- ## Core Concept ### The Premise Bitcoin doesn't trade in a vacuum. It's influenced by: - **Risk appetite** (equities: QQQ, SPX) - **Dollar strength** (DXY - inverse to risk assets) - **Safe haven flows** (Gold: XAUUSD) When macro conditions are "good for BTC" (risk-on, weak dollar, strong equities), BTC should trade higher. When macro conditions turn against it, BTC should trade lower. ### The Innovation Instead of looking at BTC in isolation, this indicator: 1. **Measures how strongly** BTC currently correlates with each macro asset 2. **Builds a weighted composite** of those macro returns (the "D" driver) 3. **Regresses BTC price on D** to estimate "macro fair value" 4. **Tracks the deviation** between actual price and fair value 5. **Signals mean reversion** when deviation becomes extreme ### The Edge The validated edge comes from: - **Extreme deviations predict future returns** (dev < -2 → +1.67% over 12 bars) - **Monotonic relationship** (more negative dev → higher forward returns) - **Works out-of-sample** (test Sharpe +83-87% better than training) - **Low correlation with buy & hold** (provides diversification value) --- ## Methodology ### Step 1: Macro Composite Driver D(t) The indicator builds a weighted composite of macro asset returns: **Process:** 1. Calculate **log returns** for BTC and each macro reference (QQQ, DXY, XAUUSD) 2. Compute **rolling correlation** between BTC and each reference over `corrLen` bars 3. **Weight each asset** by `|correlation|` if above `minCorrAbs` threshold, else 0 4. **Sign-adjust** weights (+1 for positive corr, -1 for negative) to handle inverse relationships 5. **Z-score normalize** each reference's returns over `fvWindow` 6. **Composite D(t)** = weighted sum of sign-adjusted z-scores **Formula:** ``` For each reference i: corr_i = correlation(BTC_returns, ref_i_returns, corrLen) weight_i = |corr_i| if |corr_i| >= minCorrAbs else 0 sign_i = +1 if corr_i >= 0 else -1 z_i = (ref_i_returns - mean) / std contrib_i = sign_i * z_i * weight_i D(t) = sum(contrib_i) / sum(weight_i) ``` **Key Insight:** D(t) represents "how good macro conditions are for BTC right now" in a normalized, correlation-weighted way. --- ### Step 2: Fair Value Regression Uses rolling linear regression to predict BTC price from D(t): **Model:** ``` BTC_price(t) = α + β * D(t) ``` **Calculation (Pine Script approach):** ``` corr_CD = correlation(BTC_price, D, fvWindow) sd_price = stdev(BTC_price, fvWindow) sd_D = stdev(D, fvWindow) cov = corr_CD * sd_price * sd_D var_D = variance(D, fvWindow) β = cov / var_D α = mean(BTC_price) - β * mean(D) fair_value(t) = α + β * D(t) ``` **Result:** A time-varying "macro fair value" line that adapts as correlations change. --- ### Step 3: Deviation Oscillator Measures how far BTC price has deviated from fair value: **Calculation:** ``` residual(t) = BTC_price(t) - fair_value(t) residual_std = stdev(residual, normWindow) deviation(t) = residual(t) / residual_std ``` **Interpretation:** - `dev = 0` → BTC at fair value - `dev = -2` → BTC is 2 standard deviations **cheap** vs macro - `dev = +2` → BTC is 2 standard deviations **rich** vs macro --- ### Step 4: Signal Generation **Long Entry:** `dev` crosses below `-2.0` (BTC extremely cheap vs macro) **Long Exit:** `dev` crosses above `0.0` (BTC returns to fair value) **No shorting** in default config (risk management choice - crypto volatility) --- ## How It Works ### Visual Components #### 1. Price Chart (Main Panel) **Fair Value Line (Orange):** - The estimated "macro-driven fair value" for BTC - Calculated from rolling regression on macro composite **Fair Value Bands:** - **±1σ** (light): 68% confidence zone - **±2σ** (medium): 95% confidence zone - **±3σ** (dark, dots): 99.7% confidence zone **Entry/Exit Markers:** - **Green "LONG" label** below bar: Entry signal (dev < -2) - **Red "EXIT" label** above bar: Exit signal (dev > 0) #### 2. Deviation Oscillator (Separate Pane) **Line plot:** - Shows current deviation z-score - **Green** when dev < -2 (cheap) - **Red** when dev > +2 (rich) - **Gray** when neutral **Histogram:** - Visual representation of deviation magnitude - Green bars = negative deviation (cheap) - Red bars = positive deviation (rich) **Threshold lines:** - **Green dashed at -2.0**: Entry threshold - **Red dashed at 0.0**: Exit threshold - **Gray solid at 0**: Fair value line #### 3. Correlation Panel (Top-Right) Shows live correlation and weighting for each macro asset: | Asset | Corr | Weight | |-------|------|--------| | QQQ | +0.45 | 0.45 | | DXY | -0.32 | 0.32 | | XAUUSD | +0.15 | 0.00 | | Avg \|Corr\| | 0.31 | 0.77 | **Reading:** - **Corr**: Current rolling correlation with BTC (-1 to +1) - **Weight**: How much this asset contributes to fair value (0 = excluded) - **Avg |Corr|**: Average correlation strength (should be > 0.2 for reliable signals) **Colors:** - Green/Red corr = positive/negative correlation - White weight = asset included, Gray = excluded (below minCorrAbs) #### 4. Statistics Label (Bottom-Right) ``` ━━━ BTC Macro FV ━━━ Dev: -2.34 Price: $103,192 FV: $110,500 Status: CHEAP ⬇ β: 103.52 ``` **Fields:** - **Dev**: Current deviation z-score - **Price**: Current BTC close price - **FV**: Current macro fair value estimate - **Status**: CHEAP (< -2), RICH (> +2), or FAIR - **β**: Current regression beta (sensitivity to macro) --- ## Installation & Setup ### TradingView Setup 1. Open TradingView and navigate to any **BTC chart** (BTCUSD, BTCUSDT, etc.) 2. Open **Pine Editor** (bottom panel) 3. Click **"+ New"** → **"Blank indicator"** 4. **Delete** all default code 5. **Copy** the entire Pine Script from `GHPT_optimized.pine` 6. **Paste** into the editor 7. Click **"Save"** and name it "BTC Macro Fair Value Oscillator" 8. Click **"Add to Chart"** ### Recommended Chart Settings **Timeframe:** 4h (validated timeframe) **Chart Type:** Candlestick or Heikin Ashi **Overlay:** Yes (indicator plots on price chart + separate pane) **Alternative Timeframes:** - Daily: Works but slower signals - 1h-2h: May work but not validated - < 1h: Not recommended (too noisy) ### Symbol Requirements **Primary:** BTC/USD or BTC/USDT on any exchange **Macro References:** Automatically fetched - QQQ (Nasdaq 100 ETF) - DXY (US Dollar Index) - XAUUSD (Gold spot) **Data Requirements:** - At least **90 bars** of history (warmup period) - Premium TradingView recommended for full historical data --- ## Reading the Indicator ### Identifying Signals #### Strong Long Signal (High Conviction) - ✅ Deviation < -2.0 (extreme undervaluation) - ✅ Avg |Corr| > 0.3 (strong macro relationships) - ✅ Price touching or below -2σ band - ✅ "LONG" label appears below bar **Interpretation:** BTC is extremely cheap relative to macro conditions. Historical data shows +1.67% average return over next 12 bars (48 hours at 4h timeframe). #### Moderate Long Signal (Lower Conviction) - ⚠️ Deviation between -1.5 and -2.0 - ⚠️ Avg |Corr| between 0.2-0.3 - ⚠️ Price approaching -2σ band **Interpretation:** BTC is cheap but not extreme. Consider as confirmation for other signals. #### Exit Signal - 🔴 Deviation crosses above 0 (returns to fair value) - 🔴 "EXIT" label appears above bar **Interpretation:** Mean reversion complete. Close long positions. #### Strong Short/Avoid Signal - 🔴 Deviation > +2.0 (extreme overvaluation) - 🔴 Avg |Corr| > 0.3 - 🔴 Price touching or above +2σ band **Interpretation:** BTC is expensive vs macro. Historical data shows -1.79% average return over next 12 bars. Consider exiting longs or reducing exposure. ### Regime Detection **Strong Regime (Reliable Signals):** - Avg |Corr| > 0.3 - Multiple assets weighted > 0 - Fair value line tracking price reasonably well **Weak Regime (Unreliable Signals):** - Avg |Corr| < 0.2 - Most weights = 0 (grayed out) - Fair value line diverging wildly from price - **Action:** Ignore signals until correlations strengthen
Индикатор Pine Script®
от popularGnuofls7