tldr; i think price is headed to $3, but not before some more retracement
we nailed the last target, but where ADA goes from here is not so simple.
i think the most likely scenario (solid white) is a retracement somewhere between $1.80 - $2.00 at the bottom of the minor channel before making its way back up to the recent ATH, and eventually up to $3.00 in early june. because i feel this is most likely, i'm not looking for a reentry until/unless price dips back down into that range.
another reasonable, more bullish scenario is that price continues to ride along the top of the channel and taps that 1.618 fib again, reaching $3 in another week or two. i'm not betting on this.
i think the more bearish scenario is the least likely. if we see a retracement back to the prior ATH zone around $1.50, i'd be a little worried we we're heading to long term bear market territory. if price failed to find support there, we'd probably be looking at a bottom under $1. i really don't think this is happening.
full disclosure: ADA is one of my largest holdings, and i mostly do just that (hold). this is one of the few coins that i believe in holding across cycles (the assumption being that next cycle will yield a higher ATH than the last, and you can never truly predict exactly where the top and bottom will be). of course i'm gonna attempt to sell a significant portion of my ADA before the bear market comes, but i have a bag in cold storage that i'm not touching any time soon.
we nailed the last target, but where ADA goes from here is not so simple.
i think the most likely scenario (solid white) is a retracement somewhere between $1.80 - $2.00 at the bottom of the minor channel before making its way back up to the recent ATH, and eventually up to $3.00 in early june. because i feel this is most likely, i'm not looking for a reentry until/unless price dips back down into that range.
another reasonable, more bullish scenario is that price continues to ride along the top of the channel and taps that 1.618 fib again, reaching $3 in another week or two. i'm not betting on this.
i think the more bearish scenario is the least likely. if we see a retracement back to the prior ATH zone around $1.50, i'd be a little worried we we're heading to long term bear market territory. if price failed to find support there, we'd probably be looking at a bottom under $1. i really don't think this is happening.
full disclosure: ADA is one of my largest holdings, and i mostly do just that (hold). this is one of the few coins that i believe in holding across cycles (the assumption being that next cycle will yield a higher ATH than the last, and you can never truly predict exactly where the top and bottom will be). of course i'm gonna attempt to sell a significant portion of my ADA before the bear market comes, but i have a bag in cold storage that i'm not touching any time soon.
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realizing that the first stop level (stop 1) is in a precarious position. rethinking it a bit. would be far less vulnerable below $1.60ish. though at that point, youd might as well be below the prior ATH resistance zone. whatever, do your thing.
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i'm not pulling the trigger on anything until we see how this plays out. BTC needs to hold this $42k-$43k support. it's a long way down to $30k-$32k from there. i'd honestly be surprised if it didn't hold. but who knows, maybe elon will sneeze and send everything to 0.
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BTC couldn't hold $40k. i'd say all bets are off until we see how this market shakes out. need to see more out of the bulls before i pull the trigger on anything.
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might be back in business
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if you haven't taken a position on this one yet, this is still a big question mark for me. probably wise to wait and see which way it breaks out of the wedge. or, buy the bottom of the wedge and keep your stop tightly below it.
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just an update for anyone following this idea.
