Короткая

AMD: Is the bear ready to reemerge?

От SMLFinwave

Обновлено

Large corrective wave to the upside looks ready for completion. Please see posted chart below for explanation.

Комментарий

Комментарий

To be safer, invalidation of the wave-c structure would be better at a break of 109.88.

Комментарий

Invalidation of the wave-c has occurred. I am considering this a c-failure, and I am expecting wave-3 to commence.

Комментарий

I am assuming we are currently on wave-4 (blue) of wave-c and need an additional wave to finish complete the 5 wave impulse. My short target is currently around 86 to be reached by 8/3. This will be subject to change as price action unfolds.

Комментарий

If price drops below 117.08, it means there was a 5th wave failure and price would be on wave-3 (yellow) to the downside.

Комментарий

This has been a highly complex corrective wave. I am unable to be certain of the count, which I have changed multiple times in an effort to find something that makes sense.

I can note a few things: first, I am pretty certain we are in a corrective wave 2. Second, it appears to be forming triangular action. Triangular action is usually formed at the end of a complex correction and it creates a structure referred to as a double three or triple three.

In our current instance, it is possible I have identified 2 flats separated by x waves, and the third structure is the triangle, which almost looks complete. We will see shortly.

Комментарий

A blow through the trendline created at the wave-c in the triangle would invalidate this count.

Комментарий

It appears the market is disappointed in a few of the tech earnings so far this season, so it could be the catalyst that moves AMD price action into wave 3. I am unable to find a suitable count for wave 2, but we can start to see the normal structure of the 3 wave corrective action on the chart.

I's not sure if we'll make my August 3rd target at 86, but I would be surprised if we don't start seeing some significant down days in the near term.

Комментарий

At this point, I'm going to confirm this as the 1st wave of wave-3. We should be going into wave-2 tomorrow. Then waves 3-5 should follow into the next week and a half. This also tells me that wave-2 of the larger degree (yellow) probably finished at the 121.67 high.

Комментарий

Current (rough) estimate of price and time, subject to change.

Комментарий

Three distinctive waves have developed to create wave-2 (blue). If we haven't seen completion today, then it should definitely be early tomorrow. I'm estimating wave-3 (blue) to complete late Thursday/early Friday. The minimum target is 93.50 subject to wave-2 completion. If this is correct, the next 3 trading days should see some serious downside action. We shall see.

Комментарий

I have updated the count. I have been suspicious of the downward impulse since the timing of it has taken too long. Once we didn't see the strong push down for wave-3, I knew the count had to be wrong.

Since then, it appears price action has developed into a large triangle in the "green degree". Therefore, wave-B (red) was not complete as I thought it was after the large impulse in May. Unfortunately for longs, it is still a downward count, with wave-B (red) completing at earnings via an ending triangle.

If this is a completion of a triangle, then the downward thrust should be intense and its minimum target is around 96 (100% of the longest wave of the triangle; in this case, wave-b of the triangle).

Комментарий

See chart.

Комментарий

The likelihood of price action consolidating into the apex of the triangle is high. This would be a non-limiting contracting triangle. Chances are there will be an additional triangle, within the bigger triangle, that develops wave-E.

If true, price action will see strong downside action after completion. It will just take a little longer.

Комментарий

I have 2 possible scenarios. I prefer the 2nd scenario, as that allows me to purchase additional short position at a higher price since I was not expecting the triangle to finish on Thursday.

I can't discount the possibility of the 1st scenario since we did get a breakdown outside of the triangle even though it was for a small time period. This could have been a false break - but we should be ready for the possibility. We'll know because price will have a hard decline through the previous low with no rebound.

Both scenarios are bearish since my count is not allowing for a bullish continuation.
The 1st scenario will see a sharp decline on Monday, and the 2nd one will see that decline later on in the week or so.

Комментарий

Speculation for wave-3 now that wave-1 looks complete at this morning's low.

Комментарий

SMLFinwave

Отказ от ответственности

Все виды контента, которые вы можете увидеть на TradingView, не являются финансовыми, инвестиционными, торговыми или любыми другими рекомендациями. Мы не предоставляем советы по покупке и продаже активов. Подробнее — в Условиях использования TradingView.