Bitcoin Halving Fib Estimation

16 июн. 2023 г.

Here we're dealing with fib levels derived from macro low & high price levels, specifically covering historic ATH levels.
Log scale on because we put emphasis on chart-based A/D in percentages.
Identifying critical points of fractal starting from times of eye-catching volatility and perceptible cycles.

We start with fib coverage of ATHs chronologically:
1st pair interconnected:

Added layer of 2nd pair interconnected:

Covid low - current ATH interconnectedness:

Zeroing in -77% drop:


Since we care about reducing subjectiveness in Fractal Analysis, we must place Fibonacci Channels on pin point accuracy (0;1). It is done so because of various concepts considering irrational market, uncertainty and assumption that nobody can be always right predicting market with regular TA. Since popular TA is already used among millions of traders, we definitely can't be competitive if we stick to common knowledge of standard wave counts, etc.
Fractal analysis summarizes collective market in terms of interconnectedness of the whole structure with composite short and long term cycles. Here we care about if the Golden Rule behind the waves allows for any desired move.
Since human nature and decision making even outside of trading is determined by golden rule (bench experiment, DNA, proportion of body and organs). Knowing that Fibs are pleasing proportion for a consciousness. We can use this rule against the market since we're dealing with mass consciousness. Activity of which will draw patterns in respect to those proportions anyway. So our task is to expose the levels derived from actual structure to which price has reacted throughout the history.
That way fibonacci is tuned into the chaotic nature of the market, hence-fore it is capable of determining key price levels of support and resistance without use of subjective measurements.

It doesn't yet mean this is the only tools I use for trading. This just something I consider for long-term perspective derived from historic structure. Just like in QM, we can't tell the exact location of particle, but we can tell the probability where it most likely might end up. In FA probability of levels is priced at fibs.