The market is trying to tell us a bearish story here. In fact its screaming out bears bears bears!! Lets break this down from 3 perspectives
i) Steep Trendline- The June 24 wick was an alert but it only got confirmed as a trendline by the August 5 wick. So we drew it but were not too confident in it because the angle (49 degrees) was a bit too steep for my liking. So this made a good alert for bearish move. We needed confirmation from other parameters.
ii) The Blue Zone-this was acting as good support so as long as we still bounced on it we were not yet confident of a full fledged bearish move.Then 23 September came and it got breached. The breach was however so violent that it warranted a test of this zone. So last week's candle did exactly that and the financial media was quick to suggest 'BTC could be headed for 14k again'???. . . nope it was just a classic breakout test of a zone that was support now turned resistance. Elementary technical analysis:)
iii) Kijun break- the Ichi analysis reads the same as above. We had a violent Kijun break that was tested last week and now we anticipate a further decline. The lagging seems to be in a free space and will only get candles as obstacles say about 3 weeks from now. Lastly we have a classic TK crossover with Kijun on top,recipe for bearish move:)
I have two take profits,one medium term @ the 7324 area and the longer term being the 3370 zone. Bitcoin being bitcoin, long term may mean just mean just less than 200 days:)
Entry: 2 small positions @ 9206
SL : 10682
TP1: 7324
TP2: 3370
NB: Risk management is critical..esp for any crypto. So position size appropriately and always peg a stop loss.
i) Steep Trendline- The June 24 wick was an alert but it only got confirmed as a trendline by the August 5 wick. So we drew it but were not too confident in it because the angle (49 degrees) was a bit too steep for my liking. So this made a good alert for bearish move. We needed confirmation from other parameters.
ii) The Blue Zone-this was acting as good support so as long as we still bounced on it we were not yet confident of a full fledged bearish move.Then 23 September came and it got breached. The breach was however so violent that it warranted a test of this zone. So last week's candle did exactly that and the financial media was quick to suggest 'BTC could be headed for 14k again'???. . . nope it was just a classic breakout test of a zone that was support now turned resistance. Elementary technical analysis:)
iii) Kijun break- the Ichi analysis reads the same as above. We had a violent Kijun break that was tested last week and now we anticipate a further decline. The lagging seems to be in a free space and will only get candles as obstacles say about 3 weeks from now. Lastly we have a classic TK crossover with Kijun on top,recipe for bearish move:)
I have two take profits,one medium term @ the 7324 area and the longer term being the 3370 zone. Bitcoin being bitcoin, long term may mean just mean just less than 200 days:)
Entry: 2 small positions @ 9206
SL : 10682
TP1: 7324
TP2: 3370
NB: Risk management is critical..esp for any crypto. So position size appropriately and always peg a stop loss.
