Bitcoin - July 18, 2020 (Neutral)

18 июл. 2020 г.

BTCUSD


Hello everyone,

I'm back with another update.

In my previous post, I suggested to take a quick short, following the breakdown of the (14-day) uptrend (green line). If you took that trade, with an entry around 9,150 and an exit around 9,025, you made a nice little profit.
However, despite substantial volume, the breakout was short-loved and (unsurprisingly) bounced at the 9k level.

Currently, we are in a 3-day uptrend (green line).
However, notice that
* the uptrend is struggling to break the base oft the smaller (blue) descending triangle;
* each of the daily bars has bounced of the 21-daily SMA (red curve).
So, to me, this seems like a (short) period of consolidation.

While I see no sign to turn bullish, I am changing my outlook to NEUTRAL. Here's why:
* the RSI on most time-frames is in the 40-60 zone: signalling indecision;
* on the daily time-frame, we have a red 9 on the TD Sequential: signalling a trend change is (increasingly) likely.

Hence, in my opinion, we are currently in a NO TRADE ZONE.
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OPINION (upwards to): neutral

ANALYSIS (unchanged):
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Since the beginning of June, we are in a descending triangle (black), with base around 8,930 (the .236 Fibonacci retracement ).
On July 8 we saw a failed bullish break-out from the descending triangle , at the end of a +/- 10-day upward trend, that started on June 27 (green line).
After the that failed bullish breakout:
- we are (again) below the 21 daily SMA (blue) and EMA (red);
- we are forming a smaller descending triangle (blue and magenta), with base around 9,150;
- we broke the 10-day upward trend to the downside (July 16);
- we bounced off the 9k level and are in a (3-day) uptrend;
- we find resistance at (1) the base of the blue descending triangle and (2) the 21-daily SMA.