Parabolic bitcoin runs typically see 30% to 40% corrections eventually. Such a run also happened in 2015
I believe this historic run is over, a lot of talk of this run going to 10K has made traders very bullish. The balance of longs vs. shorts has now flipped. The Bitmex Funding and Premium clearly show the flip.
A recent breach of the local high proved that there were not enough liquidations or spot buyers at these levels to drive the price to $8400 and above. Once it ran above the $6200 level, this rally was primarily driven by liquidations. As a result, it was primarily long term holders who benefitted.
The liquidations of long positions will now drive the price lower.
Historically, the faster the drop the lower it goes. In 2015 it was a fast correction of 40%:
That correction found support on the 24 month Sidereal EMA. That EMA will likely be around $5550 in the first week of June which coincides with a 34% price drop from the highs.
Of course, if most people are expecting such a correction it will take longer for the price to correct and as a result, it will not correct as much. In this less likely scenario, I expect the price to only reach the alternate target of only $6450 by the end of June.
It looks like $8400 will be the new price ceiling for most of the summer. By September Bitcoin should breach that level as well.
I believe this historic run is over, a lot of talk of this run going to 10K has made traders very bullish. The balance of longs vs. shorts has now flipped. The Bitmex Funding and Premium clearly show the flip.
A recent breach of the local high proved that there were not enough liquidations or spot buyers at these levels to drive the price to $8400 and above. Once it ran above the $6200 level, this rally was primarily driven by liquidations. As a result, it was primarily long term holders who benefitted.
The liquidations of long positions will now drive the price lower.
Historically, the faster the drop the lower it goes. In 2015 it was a fast correction of 40%:
That correction found support on the 24 month Sidereal EMA. That EMA will likely be around $5550 in the first week of June which coincides with a 34% price drop from the highs.
Of course, if most people are expecting such a correction it will take longer for the price to correct and as a result, it will not correct as much. In this less likely scenario, I expect the price to only reach the alternate target of only $6450 by the end of June.
It looks like $8400 will be the new price ceiling for most of the summer. By September Bitcoin should breach that level as well.
