Bitcoin May 2016 Daily Bollinger Head Fake vs 2019

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This chart is a follow up on the idea that was discussed on twitter with John Bollinger himself regarding the May 2016 1D Bollinger head fake that occurred then versus the currently similar action on Bitcoin.

As you see on the comparison chart, both the 2016 move and 2019 move are ultimately very very similar. The 2019 top at $10,000-13,880 actually shares similar action before we broke down in a similar manner to 2016 and finding support at the lower Weekly support at $7,800-7,700.

Currently the Daily Head Fake move is not confirmed on Bitcoin until the consolidation/sideways ends (could take weeks) and we start to move up then:
1. First we would need to cross back up above the 1D midband at $8,220
2. Then Bitcoin must break out past the top orange resistance at $9,000-9,350

Once the bull run happens, we would most likely see $16,000 as the top.

Consider this idea VOID/FAILED if Bitcoin makes a lower low below the Weekly support at $7,700

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Сделка активна:

This idea is looking likely now but still needs to be confirmed.
Since 90% of the Crypto posts I am seeing everywhere are bearish, so this would be the contrarian trade and would catch everyone off guard.

Комментарий:

The 12H midband $8,140 was broken.
The 1D midband at $8,200 was broken as well so far and holding.
We can move very very quickly to $8,550-8,650 which is the top 1D Bollinger band similar to 2016 before pulling back a tiny bit in my opinion.
But most sellers and bears across the entire market have been already trapped selling the bottom.
I think we move up parabolic once the CME Futures contract expires and settles after October 28-29 if this is the exact scenario playing out.

Комментарий:

Bitcoin failed at a crucial level and resistance at $8,290-8,330.

Since we lost the 1D Bollinger midband at $8,200 and 12H midband at $8,130 as support, this head fake scenario is for now cancelled or delayed and we are back at cautiously bearish pending confirmation of a lower low below the Weekly level at $7,811.

If anything changes I will advise again.

Сделка закрыта: достигнута стоп-лосс цена

Сделка активна:

This scenario is back on track. We had an extra fake out downwards to $7,400-7,300 before the real move.
The Head fake is more visible on the 1W Bollinger bands than the daily ones.
1D Head Fake:

1W Head Fake:

Комментарий:

Комментарий:

Still on track on this scenario and I see today few traders on tradingview picking up similar ideas based on the 1W golden cross and previous top holding as support.

Further thoughts, the bull run we had in 2016 was not one huge candle as we just had in 2019 but it was rather a gradual gentle rally. On such basis, the 2019 uptrend will take a bit longer at the current $10,000 resistance to consolidate and go for the break out once we successfully test the previous top as support at $8,840-8,740

So play your buy orders at $8,840-8,740 and a stoploss that you can preferably monitor yourself. Once this level holds, it would be uber bullish and I would expect a big leg up past $9,600 to test $10,000-10,300 again.

Комментарий:

Short-term, Bitcoin broke out from the descending triangle's top resistance at $9,230 yesterday. This should alone should allow Bitcoin to test once again the resistance at $9,430-9,530 in the next 24 hours. Short-term if we can break that resistance, then their is a high possibility that we might not see $8,840-8,740 ever again.

For the mid-term, wow we just had 6 consecutive 12H candles BULLISH candles in a row on Bitcoin! We have not seen this pattern in a long time. If you look back at 12H bands history on Bitcoin (in a bull market) featuring consecutive 12H bull candles in a row, we always ended breaking up and continuing the bull trend.

Also the 4H 6H 12H 3D 1W Bollinger Bands are tightening pointing for a moderate to big move soon. Based on the overall signal of the momentum indicator on all the timeframes and the 12H Bollinger bands this should resolve to the upside if we can close a 12H 1D candle above $9,600 at a minimum (that's the FIRSTconfirmation we need). I am still vouching for the bulls and have not changed my mind on this unless we break down below $8,700.

Worst case scenario I can see for the bulls, the 12H bands squeeze and close on themselves and Bitcoin goes in longer sideways above $9,150-9,000 for few more weeks and creates higher lows before resuming the bull trend to $10,000s+

Комментарий:

Well everyone Bitcoin closed the 1D bullish at $9,400 and broke the readjusted bear channel that every bear out there was looking at. Every top chartist on Twitter and Tradingview favoring a bearish retrace down to $8,050-7,900 was wrong so far.

I have been siding contrarian to all of them for quite a while and so far it has paid off.

At this moment we are just sitting patiently and watching the action. I do believe we will trend up from here preparing a big halving rally but first we could remain in sideways within the $9,067-9,770 range if we are unable to break the 1W midband/resistance at $9,770 this week. Lets see what happens. For now just holding our precious BTCs!