BITCOIN - IS THE BOTTOM IN?

19 сент.

The ultimate question has been flowing around crypto community - IS BITCOIN BOTTOM IN, YET? A probability of economic recession or worse is still the talk of the town but was quickly relieved after FED cutting 50bps (first time in 4 years!!!). However, we are NOT out of the wood yet.

Since the large dip at 49k, Bitcoin had a relief run to 65k, then a minor correction to sub 53k. We currently found ourselves at 62k again. However, this coincidentally has put ourselves in a tricky position:

1. The run-up from sub 53k til 62k has multiple marginal LHs and LLs on LTF, instead of impulsive candles. This leaves behind a lot of untapped downside liquidity. Meaning this run-up could potentially only be a corrective move.
   
2. The run-up was mainly driven by Futures Long, not Spot. This is not sustainable.
   
3. Level of 62k - 65k might either be liquidity grab for further downside expansion or flip zone

SInce 62k - 65k level is such a puzzle. We'll mark this zone as the critical area to watch for the next couple of weeks:

SCENARIO 1 - THE FLIP ZONE:


This is the best case scenario for bull-dreamers. PA either follows turquoise-coloured path or orange-coloured path. However, we highly anticipate turquoise-coloured path if this flip zone is to happen.

SCENARIO 2 - LIQUIDITY GRAB


This is NOT the scenario we want but judging from aforementioned position that we're in, we believe that this is the highest probable scenario. Liquidity grab occurs at 62k - 65k level before further downside expansion.

• The expected downside target: 45k - 49k
  
• What happens after:
  
  1. Rapid and high volume V-shape move upward to retest 62k – 65k again
     
  2. Slow recovery with chopping PA around 49k – 52k before retesting 62k – 65k again
     

EITHER THE SCENARIO HAPPENS, WE STILL ANTICIPATE BITCOIN NEW ATH SOON. With multiple untapped liquidity from 70k - 73k on HTF, we'll quickly run through them once PA decides which scenario it wants to go and BOOM, NEW ATH !!!