April 30 - Buying the Pullback

30 апр. 2020 г.

Daily:
- Perfected Daily TD Sell Setup (8). 9 looks like it will develop into an Evening Star.
- Hidden support level 50% into tall candle.
- PB&J within 61.80% & 78.60% fib.

Description (from bottom to top):
- Morning Star at 50% of previous swing drew horizontal support.
- Nison traders opened longs at 6850.60.
- SMA 10 / EMA 30 Golden Cross activates Nison PB&J long strategy.
- TD Sequential made a sell date obvious and price topped exactly at the minor down trend line.

Action Plan:
Expect the next candle to come down at least 50% into the tall white candle, creating an Evening Star bearish reversal and locking the market in a trading range between Evening Star ($9845) and Shooting Star (7469). The 50% area should be an excellent place to look for Swing Trade longs on lower time frames. Pay Special attention to the Sweet Spot between SMA 10 & EMA 30 as that is the ideal buy zone. Expect the $7469 Weekly Shooting Star support to hold strong. Daily charters can look to the Stochastic lower band for entry guidance.

Psychologically the people have had success and they want more. Profits were taken at the obvious Daily TD Sell level exactly at the minor down trend line. The natural order of things to follow are a) pullback, and b) attempt to break minor trend line with the greedy goal of hitting the major trend line.

Assuming an uninterrupted decline, the next Daily TD Buy Setup would occur on 10 May.

30 апр. 2020 г.

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Correction: locking the market in a trading range between Evening Star ($9485) and Shooting Star (7469).

30 апр. 2020 г.

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Correction: The 50% area (of the previous tall white candle) should be an excellent place to look for Swing Trade longs on lower time frames.

30 апр. 2020 г.

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I would like to highlight in bold that the weekly chart is bullish and we are on 4/9 of a Sell Setup. We must anticipate the 9. The Weekly chart runs Bitcoin. I'm watching m15, H1, and H4 for Nison/DeMark Swing Trades and hope to get us into sweet spots. I'll post those in the Swing Trades log:

30 апр. 2020 г.

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Weekly Perspective:

30 апр. 2020 г.

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This might pop.

H1:


H4:


H18:


H1:

30 апр. 2020 г.

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Go long and set SL under EMA 50 I say.

30 апр. 2020 г.

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Trouble spots to watch out for.

30 апр. 2020 г.

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PB&J Short strategy wins:

1 мая 2020 г.

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Layout: [1H | 1H Indicators |1D |1W]

Let's read from right to left.

Bitcoin Weekly had a huge +24.2% candle as has currently pulled back to the 23.60% fib level.

Bitcoin Daily is on a Perfected TD Sequential Sell Setup today. The 9 today indicates that this candle is the uptrend's point of exhaustion. The three candlestick pattern developing appears to be an Evening Star bearish reversal signal. The present state of the 9 may represent one of two things. Either a) because the Weekly is on a 4/9 TD Sell Setup, we expect that the 9 is the target and thus this pullback will be shallow, perhaps the market will only pull back into 23.60%, or b) The Daily 9 exhaustion acts as usual and does pull back 50% or deeper into the previous tall white candle.

Weekly bullish, Daily exhausts today, okay. What does the Hourly say? What if this 9 is going to shoot up really high because it's still 14H until candle close so it might now be exhausted yet!

Let's look at the first Layout (far left) - Hourly ETHUSD (I trade ETH because it's more profitable).
We're at resistance. People like to buy breakouts. We know that buying breakouts is both high risk as statistically fails more often that it wins. Here are two Nison strategies:

1) COP (Change of Polarity) Breakout strategy:
Steve Nison would buy after a candle close above resistance (hopefully with strong volume), after candlestick confirmation. This means that the next candle should prove itself bullish. Right now the candle is 8/9 of a TD Sell Setup and the candle has not proven itself to be bullish, thus no buying. Had it proven itself, a SL would be placed below the zone of resistance (shaded horizontal range).

2) PB&J (Pullback to Sweet Spot) strategy:
Syl (certified Nison trainer) would look to buy pullbacks into the sweet spot between SMA 10 & EMA 30 after a Golden Cross.

So what's more likely to happen here, just looking at the 1H chart? Well, there's a Perfected TD Sell Setup (8/9) which indicates that the uptrend is near exhaustion. People like to buy at the top and lose money, we know that. It looks like we could get a Golden Cross here, thus leaving the possibility that we can buy on bullish reversal signals within the sweet spot, above resistance. Remember COP (Change of Polarity)? COP means old resistance becoming support, or vice versa.

What does H1 layout #2 indicate? RSI is bullish and not oversold. MACD is bullish and pointing up. DMI (ADX) shows that the uptrend is nearing neutral, and -DI & +DI show a battle between bears and bulls, with bulls presently in control. OBV shows the precarity moment. OBV has crossed above EMA 24, showing both the bullish potential and how vulnerable the market is to reversing bearish here.

We wait and look for a PB&J entry, if not now then later. There will always be another low risk PB&J entry.

1 мая 2020 г.

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Correction (TradingView doesn't like my brackets):
Layout: 1H | 1H Indicators |1D |1W

1 мая 2020 г.

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A close above m15 SMA 50, above fib Pivot I think will mean that BTC will target $10,275. Failure to close above the Pivot probably is the golden short.

1 мая 2020 г.

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I mean that on the Daily close, m15 price must be above SMA 50 and fib Pivot.

1 мая 2020 г.

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I would really stay out. Price on m15 closed below Fib Pivot. I don't see anything good happening here. Quite the opposite.

1 мая 2020 г.

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ABOVE:
- DOWNTREND LINE
- BEARISH POLARITY ZONE
- CONSTANT SUPPLY (RED)
- DECREASING DEMAND (GREEN)
- RISK/REWARD IS PRETTY BAD

AGAIN, LETTING PEOPLE BUY THE TOP AND
SEEING HOW PRICE ACTS WITH THE PB&J
WOULD BE MOST PROFITABLE IN THE LONG RUN.

THE TROUBLE HERE IS THAT THE DAILY DIDN'T CLOSE
PARTICULARLY STRONG. THE ODDS OF HITTING
50% FIB TO THE DOWNSIDE IS QUITE LARGE.

SO WE'RE TALKING ABOUT -8% ON BTC AND
MAYBE AS MUCH AS 15% ON ETH.

1 мая 2020 г.

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Please note the four circles showing that Daily RSI is oversold.

1 мая 2020 г.

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R:R is no good on Daily longs here.