BTCUSD- CRITICAL LEVEL FOR THE LAST W1 CLOSING !
WEEKLY (W1)
Another high volatility price action seen last week between a low of 34'324 and a high of 40'330... which provided, several TACTICAL TRADING OPPORTUNITY IN A BROAD BEAR TREND WHICH RESTARTED
TWO WEEKS AGO @ 45'850 !!!
Failure to hold above the psychological 40'000 and close above 40'225 which is the middle level of the previous weekly long black candle should be seen as an additional negative signal.
Indeed, the last weekly closing level @ 37'712 was just slightly above the weekly clouds bottom support @ 37'360 which means, that once again, CLOUDS should be watch at very carefully.
THIS WEEKLY CLOSING WAS BELOW THE TENKAN-SEN (40'268) WHICH ALSO COINCIDES ROUGHLY WITH THE 40'222 IMPORTANT RESISTANCE LEVEL PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED.
RSI below 50, @ 40.80.
LAGGING LINE below both Kijun-Sen and Tenkan-Sen and currently, roughly in the middle of the clouds !
In this weekly time frame, LEVELS TO WATCH AT, ARE THE FOLLOWING :
UPSIDE :
R1 : 40'268
R2 : 42'170
R3 : 43'937
DOWNSIDE :
S1 : 37'516
S2 : 35'020
S3 : 32'950
A FAILURE TO HOLD ABOVE THE FORMER LOW @ 32'950 WOULD DIRECTLY PUT THE FOCUS TOWARDS THE PSYCHOLOGICAL 30'000 LEVEL AHEAD OF THE MOST AND VERY, VERY, VERY IMPORTANT 28'600 LEVEL (DOUBLE TOP TRIGGER LEVEL !!!)
DAILY (D1)
Last daily closing (37'712) below the clouds (38'050) but was just slightly above the Daily Tenkan-Sen @ 37'397.
The Tenkan-Sen should be seen as a good support indicator in this daily time frame as a failure to hold on a daily basis closing above it would open the door for lower level towards the 37'000 area which is the bottom of the price action seen over the last couple of days.
A daily closing below 37'000 would be another negative signal for the upcoming trading sessions the 37'000-35'000/34324 trading range looks very fragile !
RSI below 50, @ 4125
LAGGING LINE below the Kijun-Sen but still slighly above the Tenkan-Sen.
4 HOURS (H4)
After having roughly tested the 37'000 support level (intraday low so far being 37'015), below the H4 clouds support, the BTC is currently attempting to recover.
Currently above the Kijun-Sen @ 37'327 (also 50% Fibonacci retracement of the last 34'324-40'330 rally) BUT below the Tenkan-Sen @ 38'451 and the Mid Bollinger Band @ 38'817.
THE MID BOLLINGER BAND and the TOP OF THE 4 HOURS CLOUDS CURRENTLY @ 39'755 SHOULD BE SEEN AS THE LEVELS TO BREAK IN ORDER TO CONFIRM THIS SHY RECOVERY.
On the DOWNSIDE, a failure to hold on a H4 closing basis above 37'000 would also be an additional warning signal calling for further downside towards 36'618 (61.8% Fib ret) ahead of 35'609 (78.6% Fib extension) in this H4 time frame.
RSI below 50, @ 44.64
LAGGING LINE still above KS and TS
Last but not least, watch the last price action seen over the last 2 candles (2 successive DOJIS) which means growing uncertainty and indecision !!!
HOURLY (H1)
Below the clouds, the Mid Bollinger Band and the Kijun-Sen.
Just above the Tenkan-Sen @ 37'696
In this H1 time frame watch 37'696-37'400 as the first support zone and on the upside watch the cluster @ 38'450-38'500 ahead of the clouds resistance area 39'000-39'200
CONCLUSION :
The BITCOIN remains in a BROAD STRATEGIC BEAR TREND and is for the time being, STRATEGICALLY SPEAKING, A SELL ON RALLY AND NOT YET A BUY ON DIPS !!!
Nevertheless, as already mentioned several times, there are plenty of TACTICAL COUNTERTREND TRADING OPPORTUNITIES which should monitored and managed accordingly in applying a strict and appropriate RISK MANAGEMENT approach and this depending of your targets and your time frame !!!
Do you like my analysis and do you find that it add some value of your trading activity, so, please do not forget to like it and for those who do not follow me yet, please do not forget either do add IRONMAN8848 on your following list on TradingView.
For those who do not have access to TradingView, (at the moment, the best charting application) you can click on the following link (several plans available :-) :
tradingview.com/gopro/?share_your_love=Ironman_8848
Many thanks in advance.
Another high volatility price action seen last week between a low of 34'324 and a high of 40'330... which provided, several TACTICAL TRADING OPPORTUNITY IN A BROAD BEAR TREND WHICH RESTARTED
TWO WEEKS AGO @ 45'850 !!!
Failure to hold above the psychological 40'000 and close above 40'225 which is the middle level of the previous weekly long black candle should be seen as an additional negative signal.
Indeed, the last weekly closing level @ 37'712 was just slightly above the weekly clouds bottom support @ 37'360 which means, that once again, CLOUDS should be watch at very carefully.
THIS WEEKLY CLOSING WAS BELOW THE TENKAN-SEN (40'268) WHICH ALSO COINCIDES ROUGHLY WITH THE 40'222 IMPORTANT RESISTANCE LEVEL PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED.
RSI below 50, @ 40.80.
LAGGING LINE below both Kijun-Sen and Tenkan-Sen and currently, roughly in the middle of the clouds !
In this weekly time frame, LEVELS TO WATCH AT, ARE THE FOLLOWING :
UPSIDE :
R1 : 40'268
R2 : 42'170
R3 : 43'937
DOWNSIDE :
S1 : 37'516
S2 : 35'020
S3 : 32'950
A FAILURE TO HOLD ABOVE THE FORMER LOW @ 32'950 WOULD DIRECTLY PUT THE FOCUS TOWARDS THE PSYCHOLOGICAL 30'000 LEVEL AHEAD OF THE MOST AND VERY, VERY, VERY IMPORTANT 28'600 LEVEL (DOUBLE TOP TRIGGER LEVEL !!!)
DAILY (D1)
Last daily closing (37'712) below the clouds (38'050) but was just slightly above the Daily Tenkan-Sen @ 37'397.
The Tenkan-Sen should be seen as a good support indicator in this daily time frame as a failure to hold on a daily basis closing above it would open the door for lower level towards the 37'000 area which is the bottom of the price action seen over the last couple of days.
A daily closing below 37'000 would be another negative signal for the upcoming trading sessions the 37'000-35'000/34324 trading range looks very fragile !
RSI below 50, @ 4125
LAGGING LINE below the Kijun-Sen but still slighly above the Tenkan-Sen.
4 HOURS (H4)
After having roughly tested the 37'000 support level (intraday low so far being 37'015), below the H4 clouds support, the BTC is currently attempting to recover.
Currently above the Kijun-Sen @ 37'327 (also 50% Fibonacci retracement of the last 34'324-40'330 rally) BUT below the Tenkan-Sen @ 38'451 and the Mid Bollinger Band @ 38'817.
THE MID BOLLINGER BAND and the TOP OF THE 4 HOURS CLOUDS CURRENTLY @ 39'755 SHOULD BE SEEN AS THE LEVELS TO BREAK IN ORDER TO CONFIRM THIS SHY RECOVERY.
On the DOWNSIDE, a failure to hold on a H4 closing basis above 37'000 would also be an additional warning signal calling for further downside towards 36'618 (61.8% Fib ret) ahead of 35'609 (78.6% Fib extension) in this H4 time frame.
RSI below 50, @ 44.64
LAGGING LINE still above KS and TS
Last but not least, watch the last price action seen over the last 2 candles (2 successive DOJIS) which means growing uncertainty and indecision !!!
HOURLY (H1)
Below the clouds, the Mid Bollinger Band and the Kijun-Sen.
Just above the Tenkan-Sen @ 37'696
In this H1 time frame watch 37'696-37'400 as the first support zone and on the upside watch the cluster @ 38'450-38'500 ahead of the clouds resistance area 39'000-39'200
CONCLUSION :
The BITCOIN remains in a BROAD STRATEGIC BEAR TREND and is for the time being, STRATEGICALLY SPEAKING, A SELL ON RALLY AND NOT YET A BUY ON DIPS !!!
Nevertheless, as already mentioned several times, there are plenty of TACTICAL COUNTERTREND TRADING OPPORTUNITIES which should monitored and managed accordingly in applying a strict and appropriate RISK MANAGEMENT approach and this depending of your targets and your time frame !!!
Do you like my analysis and do you find that it add some value of your trading activity, so, please do not forget to like it and for those who do not follow me yet, please do not forget either do add IRONMAN8848 on your following list on TradingView.
For those who do not have access to TradingView, (at the moment, the best charting application) you can click on the following link (several plans available :-) :
tradingview.com/gopro/?share_your_love=Ironman_8848
Many thanks in advance.
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