BTC/USD Macro - Past, Present, And Beyond

22 авг. 2020 г.

I'm well aware of how ludicrous a 460k Bitcoin is. I'm well aware of how manipulated it is. This is not a justification for or in support of Bitcoin. This is not even an expression of my own opinion. This is simply an expansion upon what the technicals & fundamentals have shown to us.

That being said, you cannot find another asset that moves more beautifully than Bitcoin. It is remarkably consistent and whether you like it or not, it is undoubtedly one of the best performing assets in human history.

I did not use the BLX chart because I don't consider the information beneficial to the cycle that we have observed since 2012. If you want a 1M Bitcoin, that's how you'll get there, but I figured 400k was high enough.

Looking at the long term trend, there are two points of significance:
1. Critical areas of Fibonacci support: .786 - .9 Fibonacci Retracement
2. This cycle breaks down below $1,100

Historically, Bitcoin has consistently found support/bottoming in the .786 - .9 Fibonacci Retracement channel(Linear Scale). If this trend has continued, this would be confirmation of the bottom occurring in December of 2018.


We are currently trading inside of what would be the 3rd wave of the Macro Cycle, but an argument can be made about which sub-wave we are in (4 or 5) which I will present below. This 3rd wave would be targeting roughly 88K-90k. Finding support in the .786 - .9 Fib. Channel around 20k thereafter, followed by a final wave targeting 460k to complete the macro cycle.

Now let's look at the present,

There are two ways to look at how we are moving up right now:
1. A continuation of the 4th sub-wave targeting 17k
2. The 5th sub-wave targeting 88k.

In either scenario, we are definitely impulsive. There are a number of ways that the current structure can be broken down, but I have narrowed them down to what I think are the best ways the recent price action can be interpreted.

Bullish:


Bearish - Prolonged 4th wave:
There are a number of indications in support of the more bearish argument. The primary, for me, being the lack of institutional confidence in the levels we are at right now and the rule of alternation between the second and fourth sub-wave. Short 2nd wave, long 4th wave, and vice versa. With how we stand right now, they are symmetrical in length. Therefore, we should expect the 4th wave to drag out longer. The best way to fit that in with the current structure is a flat correction (5-3-5) as a B wave. This would mean that we will have one last capitulation targeting roughly $2,700-$2,800 before finishing the final sub-wave of the 3rd macro wave.


Considering all of this information, what side are you on? Are you bullish? Or are you bearish?