Attempting BTC swing short.

27 сент.

I've been generally bearish on BTC a while. Usually buying supports (As is my contrarian style) but on a swing basis I think the general space looks weak.

Follow through on this rally would likely change my mind, but if it is weak ,then we'd be at the end of this rally.

I've mainly contained my bets on crypto short to COIN, ETH and a few other alts. I track BTC for sentiment but to be honest I think it's bad to trade. The more time I watch it, trade it or backcheck things against it, the more I think it's just a blunted edge. Even when you're right, it's not optimal.

BTC most often spikes out the classic levels. Not by much, but by enough to be tricky to a trader. Knowing this, you have three options;

1 - Continue what you're doing and take it in the teeth - would not recommend to a friend.

2 - Stop doing it entirely and focus attentions else where.

3 - Widen your stops meaning you lose more when wrong and win less when you lose - and you can call this "Winning", but scaled out over 1,000 trades it's a poor edge.

The only notable appeal to it is it can move quick and fast. But that's not a USP. Not to me, anyway. If I want it, I've got access to 500:1 leverage in the Forex market. If I want to put myself into a situation where I can make or lose money quickly, I can do it in the Forex market with a regulated broker, tight spreads and less expected trickery.

So yeah ... I don't do it very often now. Last time I just went big on a proxy bet in COIN puts (Was an awesome trade).

But there's a time and a place for everything. In theory if the BTC turn is coming here this should be all the stop hunting done. All the bull baiting done and we should turn.

Good spot to try. Huge RR if right and papercut if wrong.

Chart currently forms as a huge Gartly pattern. One of the lesser reliable patterns, imo, but this is what flag this exact entry zone.

1 окт.

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Back under the 61. Stops to even now.

Big bear break coming if these following supports break.

If a big bear break does come here, it has to be said it's been giving the warnings for a long time. We're into the 7th month of them.

2 окт.

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Real crunch time now.

If we reject the attempt to break the range high again (Been going on for 7 months now) I think we're going to break the 50K low. And if we do, I think it's going to enter into an obvious strong sell off.

Which could well mean in a few months time all of the touted models for forecasting BTC may have been proven wrong.

2 окт.

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Narratives take years to build up and only days, weeks or months to dispel.

I'm not sure how well those heavily betting on these models understand that.

It's very simple, if it does not happen - the model will be forgotten.

Happens all the time. It's the theme of markets rather than the exception.

4 окт.

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Month 7 of the upside trendline rejecting attempts higher.

8 окт.

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Retest of the 61. This is important decision time.

8 окт.

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If the Gartley pattern succeeds, that means the popular BTC forecasting models and cycle ideas have to fail. Both can't succeed here.

That's extremely interesting from the perspective of a student of the markets and how TA is or is not effective over time. Because the Gartley is the oldest of the harmonic patterns. From a book in the 1940s on TA patterns. And it's up against a fundie driven narrative that is also the newest narrative and the one most believed to override counter TA.

So we have a super old TA pattern vrs the most modern theory.

Who will win?

8 окт.

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People think I talk shit about the cycles etc because I want them to fail. It's not the case. If it were up to me, I'd vote for the simple predictable market cycles. I'm a trader. What could be better?

I say what I say because the people who promote it do so in a irresponsible way. With no exit plan and do acknowledgment that could go badly.

When pressed on it, the things they come up with are a joke. Someone told me they are long bonds to hedge BTC. And if it goes wrong they'll exit the bonds on the spike and then ride the next BTC cycle. It's funny if no one is listening, but they are. And that makes it dumb.

1 - "Exit in the spike". I read, "If my forecast of being able to exactly time the BTC move does not work, I'll fall back on my ability to perfectly time the bonds move".

Ah yes. Using the famous bonds cycle. Getting the turning point on bonds is easy.

"Next cycle" ... dude, the question was "What if this cycle thing turns out to be nonsense". Your answer is, "I'll time the bonds like a boss and then keep hoping it's not nonsense even after the proof to the contrary.

I hope they're right. Because otherwise - there's going to be a LOT of people who are screwed.

Bets too big, in too volatile assets, with no plan to escape and based on ideas that no one knows what to do if they fail.

Mark my words, if it fails - it will put an entire generation off the markets. It'll take a long time before they quit, but they'll quit and you'll never see them in the market again.

8 окт.

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I am not saying I know what's going to happen. I've done this long enough to know the golden rule, "Who talks most confidently talks for the least amount of time".

All I am saying is I think people are too confident in something with too little to support it being correct.

8 окт.

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And you can not debate these points with BTC bulls in a good-faith way.

After you go through the most basic of the "Script" they've all learned and raise additional points, they'll call you names. Stupid, bitter - etc etc.

It's like BTC bulls are trained on a "Small language model".

I've just ended up having the same discussion with every one. Almost invariably ending with them just basically telling me I am stupid over and over and to "Do my research".

I watched the YouTube video. It's not a hard concept. I'm just saying it might be wrong.