Wave B should retrace now; set to test the downtrend line again?
After the impulse wave has ended, we seem to be in a ABC correction, if not quite an impulse downtrend wave.
The ABC scenario is the less bearish one, and I think the most probable for now. Because the bulls are about to exhaust their forces, I don't think the bears will put much effort into the correction. This B (or 2?) wave should retrace either here at the $8185 resistance, or (less probable) at $8305, sending us down with a C wave. The bottom of the uptrend channel created after the pump should not resist, the only reason that it acted as support was that wave B started at the intersection point with the $7912 support, where we also had a $7962 Fibonacci line which created a confluence support.
I think after we break down the uptrend channel, these supports will not hold. Therefore wave C should send us down to the $7582 Fib support line, where we should also test the downtrend grey line of all maxima. If it breaks, more bearish scenarios are about to come.
Note that we also have to cross the magenta top line of the global recent downtrend channel, and the light grey uptrend line of all time BTC evolution, besides the $7582 Fib support; but these trend lines acted very weakly as support recently, they are not crossed at the same price level, so I think they will be broken without hesitation.
Also note the big H&S pattern that will form if we touch the $7962 Fib level again. It has as target the same price level as wave C. Not to mention that wave B already created a bear flag with the same target.
The ABC scenario is the less bearish one, and I think the most probable for now. Because the bulls are about to exhaust their forces, I don't think the bears will put much effort into the correction. This B (or 2?) wave should retrace either here at the $8185 resistance, or (less probable) at $8305, sending us down with a C wave. The bottom of the uptrend channel created after the pump should not resist, the only reason that it acted as support was that wave B started at the intersection point with the $7912 support, where we also had a $7962 Fibonacci line which created a confluence support.
I think after we break down the uptrend channel, these supports will not hold. Therefore wave C should send us down to the $7582 Fib support line, where we should also test the downtrend grey line of all maxima. If it breaks, more bearish scenarios are about to come.
Note that we also have to cross the magenta top line of the global recent downtrend channel, and the light grey uptrend line of all time BTC evolution, besides the $7582 Fib support; but these trend lines acted very weakly as support recently, they are not crossed at the same price level, so I think they will be broken without hesitation.
Also note the big H&S pattern that will form if we touch the $7962 Fib level again. It has as target the same price level as wave C. Not to mention that wave B already created a bear flag with the same target.
Комментарий:
Going down according to the plan. If this wave retraces on the top of the downtrend channel, it's a C wave of an ABC correction, but if it goes lower than $7500, chances are that it's only the 3'rd wave of a 12345 downwards impulse wave, which would lead us to $6000 or even lower! Let's see!
Комментарий:
A bear flag was building during 4th subwave of the wave C, on the $7912 support level. This flag was so clear that should have targeted the end of wave C; however whales made a pump exactly in the moment when the flag should have broken down. No TA could predict this in a logical way, all indicators and patterns were showing the opposite.
At these small volumes, prices are easily, if not totally manipulated. As I've already shown in an older post, chart patterns are going mad recently. We are far from big scale chart patterns, prices are ranging, and I think no reliable TA can be made in this moment, all is speculation right now. Even now, I don't think it's a bull flag what is building up, it's maybe a wedge, which will eventually break out in any direction the whales want it to.
At these small volumes, prices are easily, if not totally manipulated. As I've already shown in an older post, chart patterns are going mad recently. We are far from big scale chart patterns, prices are ranging, and I think no reliable TA can be made in this moment, all is speculation right now. Even now, I don't think it's a bull flag what is building up, it's maybe a wedge, which will eventually break out in any direction the whales want it to.
The patterns are weird since quite a few days, so a trend reversal cannot be excluded at any time. In spite of any pattern, whales still can change everything if they want to, especially now when the volumes are so low.