BTC SEPTEMBER CORRECTION ANALOG ANALYSIS 2017-10-04
This is similar to my original analysis I completed on 2017-09-26. However, the time discrepancies between my June/July Analog got the best of me. With the increase in liquidity and volume in the market today vs. June/July - there should inherently be less volatility on a given time frame compared to the same time frame in historical movements. Less volatility should mean that trends should take longer to play out. With that said, it seems as though that the pattern we are currently observing, as well as where these patterns are occurring with respect to the Fibonacci levels continue to line up very strongly with that of the June/July correction.
In June, after bottoming out, we recovered very quickly to near the 0.78 Fibb levels, in which we lost steam and tumbled down.
While it has taken 1+ week in order for our trends to play out (from bottoming out, to recovering to the 0.78 Fibb Level), seemingly trends are playing out in about 1/3rd of the time they did.
Looking forward, I expect BTC to test the 4370-4450 resistance one more time (at time of writing this, we are currently attempting to recover from the sell off at 2am EST 10-3-2017. If it continues to fail to break the resistance, I expect an even harsher sell-off as panic sets in for retail investors that have fallen into this potential bull trap. At that point, I think over the course of a few days, if BTC is unable to maintain support and break past resistances - I do not think it is by any means crazy to consider that we have a July correction on our hands, and we're heading back down - this time the target bottom being the 2400 price level that the Bull Pennant signaled at the end of the July correction.
I personally will be sitting on the sidelines until I see without a doubt which way this market is moving. I think we are in no man's land until we see a definitive movement up or down. This is my personal opinion, and I am by no means an expert - so please take it with a grain of salt if it goes against what your charts say. At the end of the day, we have to trade our chart. Every day should be a new learning experience.
I greatly appreciate any comments, constructive criticism, advice, suggestions, etc.
Thank you!
In June, after bottoming out, we recovered very quickly to near the 0.78 Fibb levels, in which we lost steam and tumbled down.
While it has taken 1+ week in order for our trends to play out (from bottoming out, to recovering to the 0.78 Fibb Level), seemingly trends are playing out in about 1/3rd of the time they did.
Looking forward, I expect BTC to test the 4370-4450 resistance one more time (at time of writing this, we are currently attempting to recover from the sell off at 2am EST 10-3-2017. If it continues to fail to break the resistance, I expect an even harsher sell-off as panic sets in for retail investors that have fallen into this potential bull trap. At that point, I think over the course of a few days, if BTC is unable to maintain support and break past resistances - I do not think it is by any means crazy to consider that we have a July correction on our hands, and we're heading back down - this time the target bottom being the 2400 price level that the Bull Pennant signaled at the end of the July correction.
I personally will be sitting on the sidelines until I see without a doubt which way this market is moving. I think we are in no man's land until we see a definitive movement up or down. This is my personal opinion, and I am by no means an expert - so please take it with a grain of salt if it goes against what your charts say. At the end of the day, we have to trade our chart. Every day should be a new learning experience.
I greatly appreciate any comments, constructive criticism, advice, suggestions, etc.
Thank you!
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