BITCOIN New ATH! Congratulations HODLers! Is 100k next?

20 окт. 2021 г.

I can't help but make this a festive post as Bitcoin finally broke the previous All Time High (ATH) of $64900 made last April, a level many thought it wouldn't reach again for many years to come if ever! So let us take this short opportunity to congratulate everyone. All the HODLers. For all those who had to endure 5 months of stress, anxiety, discomfort and pain but didn't lose hope and held. Those who were mocked by and had to sit and listen to people who don't possess the slightest understanding of Bitcoin, the Blockchain technology and what they represent. By now you all know that with every correction most mainstream people pop up telling crypto enthusiasts that "BTC is going to 1k, 100 or even zero"! By now I am sure you all know better than this. Well, congratulations to all, this victory is well deserved, Bitcoin has made a new ATH today. Let's see now what possibilities lie ahead.

As I published on October 11 (see chart below), I personally believe that we may see a Cup and Handle (C&H) pattern emerge:



Technically, this pattern doesn't need to see its Handle start with a rejection on the Resistance (which in this case was the 64900 ATH) but may rise a little higher (FOMO can kick in now) before correcting into the Handle. Every major medium to long-term correction for BTC during parabolic runs, has the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) as its major candidate to offer Support. This is currently a little over $50000.

The 1D MA50 is so critical for another reason as well. The 1D RSI pattern since August 01 resembles the RSI sequence from October 2020 to January 2021. As you see so far the two fractals are fairly identical. What followed after the January 08 2021 RSI was a strong correction, which translated in BTCUSD price terms as a pull-back on the 1D MA50. As the 1D MA50 held, it gave back a +100% rally before the late February correction. +100% from the current 1D MA50 levels falls at $101000, which is exactly the 2.0 Fibonacci extension from the Cup's bottom (28700) to top (64900), which is the theoretical target on any C&H pattern.


Before closing this analysis, it would be useful to take a look at how BTC has reacted historically during previous ATH break-outs.


* On December 01 2020, it broke above the $19800 ATH and instantly dropped -11% before quickly recovering:



* On March 01 2017, upon breaking the $1245 ATH, it dropped -31% before quickly recovering:



* On November 06 2013, it broke the $267 ATH and continued rising parabolically without a correction:



* On February 28 2013, it broke the $32 ATH and again continued the aggressive rally without a correction:




So historically it appears that the probabilities for a correction at this stage are even.

What do you think about this scenario? Will Bitcoin pull-back towards the 1D MA50 and then rebound or you believe it's going straight towards 100k? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section!


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