Fundamental and technical analysis in the world of cryptocurren

19 апр.

On the 1-day timeframe chart.

Hello! We have conducted an analysis of Bitcoin prices at the time of various forums and events in the cryptocurrency and blockchain space. Now let's dive deeper and examine the fundamental and technical aspects of this data. We will look at how forums influence the price of Bitcoin, what factors determine price movement after events, and what conclusions can be drawn from the technical analysis of charts.

I have divided the entire list of events into groups based on their names for a clearer and more detailed study of patterns, and let's consider the differences between them:
Displaying technical analysis.
Bitcoin Events - Orange color.
Consensus Events - Green color.
Blockchain Events - Pink color.

Group 1: Bitcoin Conference:
Bitcoin 2012 Conference
Bitcoin 2013 Conference
Bitcoin 2014 Conference
Differences: These conferences are focused on Bitcoin as the first and most well-known cryptocurrency. Probably, these events discussed technologies and innovations related specifically to Bitcoin. Perspectives on the development and future of Bitcoin could have been considered.

Group 2: Consensus: Consensus 2015 Consensus 2016 Consensus 2017 Consensus 2018 Consensus 2019 Consensus 2021 Consensus 2023
Differences: Consensus is the largest annual event organized by CoinDesk dedicated to cryptocurrencies and blockchain. These conferences usually discuss a wide range of issues, including technical, regulatory, economic, and other aspects of cryptocurrencies and blockchain. Consensus often attracts attention from major industry players, including representatives of financial institutions, technology companies, government agencies, and other stakeholders.

Group 3: Blockchain Expo:
Blockchain Expo North America 2016
Blockchain Expo Europe 2017
Blockchain Expo Europe 2018
Blockchain Expo Global 2020
Blockchain Expo North America 2024
Differences: These events are oriented not only towards cryptocurrencies but also towards blockchain technology as a whole. Various applications of blockchain in different industries, such as finance, healthcare, logistics, and others, are discussed. Both technological innovations and practical examples of blockchain usage are presented. These groups have different inclinations and focuses in their themes, allowing participants to choose events based on their interests and expectations.

Technical Analysis:

Let's develop a trading idea, considering all forums and Bitcoin prices at the time of each event. We will also examine the further movement of the price after each forum and add some reflections on technical analysis.


1. Bitcoin 2012 Conference:
- Date: September 15-16, 2012.
- Bitcoin price at the time: $12.
- Further price movement: After the forum, the price continued its upward trend, increasing to $105 by the next forum.
- Technical analysis reflections: The upward trend is confirmed by increasing trading volumes, and highs/lows are rising.

2. Bitcoin 2013 Conference:
- Date: May 17-19, 2013.
- Bitcoin price at the time: $122.
- Further price movement: After the forum, the price continued to rise, reaching $444 by the next forum.
- Technical analysis reflections: The upward trend intensified, indicating a bullish market continuation. It's important to note that after the forum, the price decreased by -44%, suggesting possible manipulation by a large player (shaking out weak hands).

3. Bitcoin 2014 Conference:
- Date: May 15-17, 2014.
- Bitcoin price at the time: $440.
- Further price movement: After the forum, the price initially rose to $666 but then began to fall, reaching $230 by the next forum.
- Technical analysis reflections: The price increase was driven by news surrounding the forum, but technically, the asset price was approaching an upward trend. It's also crucial to note that the price of Bitcoin decreased by 61.3% leading up to the forum - this could have created an illusion of a bottom! Overall, after the forum, the asset price decreased by an additional 62.2%.


4. Consensus 2015:
- Date: May 10-12, 2015.
- Bitcoin price at the time: $244.
- Further price movement: After the forum, the price of Bitcoin began to gradually rise, reaching $444 by the next forum.
- Technical analysis reflections: A rising trend begins to form on the chart after a correction. It's important to note that the price at the time of the forum was at resistance of a descending trendline, which was later breached.

5. Consensus 2016:
- Date: May 2-4, 2016.
- Bitcoin price at the time: $444.
- Further price movement: After the forum, the price of Bitcoin continued to rise, reaching $733 by the next forum.
- Technical analysis reflections: The upward trend intensified, potentially leading to increased interest in the asset. After the forum, the asset price tested the ascending trendline and saw an impulse rise of +74%.

6. Blockchain Expo North America 2016:
- Date: November 29-30, 2016.
- Bitcoin price at the time: $733.
- Further price movement: After the forum, the price of Bitcoin continued its rapid rise, reaching $2,424 by the next forum.
- Technical analysis reflections: There is an increase in volatility and acceleration of the upward trend. Similar to the previous forum, there was an impulse rise of +52% from the support of the ascending trendline.

Important! After forums 5 and 6, the price aggressively rose, but the most crucial aspect was the return of the price to the ascending trendline, thus deflating all rises by 70-90%!


7. Consensus 2017:
- Date: May 22-24, 2017.
- Bitcoin price at the time: $2,424.
- Subsequent price movement: After the forum, the Bitcoin price continued to rise, reaching $2,525 by the next forum.
- Technical analysis reflections: The trend continues to strengthen, and the market experiences a phase of active participation in the bull rally. It's also worth noting that the price leading up to the forums increased by +150% from the same ascending trendline on which forums 5 and 6 were held.

8. Blockchain Expo Europe 2017:
- Date: June 1-2, 2017.
- Bitcoin price at the time: $2,525.
- Subsequent price movement: After the forum, the Bitcoin price began a rapid ascent, reaching $8,131 by the next forum.
- Technical analysis reflections: There is a continuation of the aggressive upward trend with high volatility, attracting traders' and investors' attention. After the forum, the price renewed all previous highs and peaked at $19,111.

Important! It's worth noting that the next forums 9 and 10 will take place after the global ascending trendline has already been breached...


9. Consensus 2018:
- Date: May 14-16, 2018.
- Bitcoin price at the time: $8,131.
- Subsequent price movement: After the forum, the Bitcoin price fell to $6,069 by the next forum.
- Technical analysis reflections: The market experiences volatility and correction after a prolonged period of growth. While the forum carried a positive sentiment, technically, the price was in a descending trend. A decline of -29% was observed.

10. Blockchain Expo Europe 2018:
- Date: June 27-28, 2018.
- Bitcoin price at the time: $6,096.
- Subsequent price movement: After the forum, the Bitcoin price initially rose to the levels of the previous forum at $8,131, but then began to fall again, forming global lows at $3,181.
- Technical analysis reflections: The market undergoes a period of correction after a prolonged downward trend, and the price even attempts to stabilize after breaking through the descending trendline. However, the global descending trend continues.


11. Blockchain Expo Global 2019:
- Date: April 25-26, 2019.
- Bitcoin price at the time: $5,125.
- Subsequent price movement: After the forum, the Bitcoin price continued to rise, reaching $6,363 by the next forum.
- Technical analysis reflections: There is an acceleration of the upward trend with increasing trading volumes.

12. Consensus 2019:
- Date: May 13-15, 2019.
- Bitcoin price at the time: $6,636.
- Subsequent price movement: After the forum, the Bitcoin price initially fluctuated in the range of $7,300 - $8,777, but then began to increase, reaching $13,000, forming an important local maximum.
- Technical analysis reflections: The market steadily rose, forming lows through which ascending trendlines could be drawn! It's important to note that forums 9 and 10 formed resistance levels, which the asset price surpassed due to the news background at forums 11 and 12.

Thus, each forum has its own unique context and impact on the future movement of the Bitcoin price. These data can be used to develop trading strategies and make decisions about entering or exiting positions in the cryptocurrency market.

Continuing the analysis: Forums 9, 10, 11, and 12 formed the meridian of the global accumulation channel. Attention should have been focused on forum 13 and technical analysis!


13. Blockchain Expo Global 2020:
- Date: March 17-18, 2020.
- Location: London, UK.
- Note: Many events in 2020 shifted to an online format due to the COVID-19 pandemic.
- Bitcoin price at the time: $5,666.
- Subsequent price movement: After the event, the Bitcoin price continued to rise, reaching $40,000 by the next forum.
- Reflections: In the face of market uncertainty and the transition of events to an online format, it was possible to rely on a stable trend and consider long-term investments. The price confirmed a global ascending trendline from which there was aggressive buying.

14. Consensus 2021:
- Date: May 24-26, 2021.
- Bitcoin price at the time: $35,000.
- Subsequent price movement: After the forum, the Bitcoin price continued to rise, reaching $40,000 by the next forum.
- Technical analysis reflections: The market experienced a bull rally with increased volatility and heightened investor interest. However, the forum took place when the asset price had already breached a local ascending trendline, so despite the positivity, the price continued to decline to a more significant ascending trendline by -26.71%. After its confirmation, the price formed a global maximum at $69,000, from where a global downward trend began to the levels of $15,479.


15. Blockchain Expo Europe 2022:
- Date: June 1-2, 2022.
- Bitcoin price at the time: $31,000.
- Subsequent price movement: After the forum, the Bitcoin price initially dropped to $30,000, but then began to rise again, reaching $31,000, and continued its downward movement.
- Technical analysis reflections: The market experienced a correction after a rise and was at the support level of an already formed channel ranging from $30,000 to $69,000. However, despite positive news, a support breach occurred, and the asset price fell by -49.01% from the forum date.

16. Consensus 2023:
- Date: May 22-24, 2023.
- Bitcoin price at the time: $26,000.
- Subsequent price movement: After the forum, the Bitcoin price continued to rise overall, reaching $73,000 by the next forum in Dubai (Blockchain Life).
- Technical analysis reflections: The market maintained its upward trend.


17. Blockchain Life 2024:

Date: April 15-16, 2024.
Bitcoin price at the time: $65,858.
Subsequent price movement: After the forum, the Bitcoin price began to decline towards the $61,000 mark.
Technical analysis reflections: The market maintains its upward trend, but it's worth noting that below today's price are trendline supports. Analyzing past upward trends, there is a possibility of a price decrease to these trendlines! The news background is very positive - this may precede a good decline - the reason being that the asset price is at global highs (a local distribution zone).

18.Blockchain Expo North America 2024:
Date: September 18-19, 2024.
Bitcoin price at the time: $???.???(assumed).
Thus, analyzing all the forums conducted and the Bitcoin prices at the time of their occurrence, trends can be identified and the impact of events on cryptocurrency prices understood, which can help in making investment decisions.

After analyzing all the presented events and forums, as well as conducting technical analysis of the Bitcoin price, the following conclusions can be made:

Fundamental Analysis:
Forums and events such as conferences and exhibitions have a significant impact on the cryptocurrency market, especially when new technologies, regulations, and investment opportunities are discussed.
The transition of events to online formats due to the COVID-19 pandemic influenced market perception but did not diminish investors' interest in cryptocurrencies.
Rising trends in Bitcoin price may be associated with optimistic news and announcements at major events, whereas descending trends may be caused by uncertainty or negative news.

Technical Analysis:
Bitcoin price charts show clear growth trends after forums and events, especially if the Bitcoin price starts to increase before the event and continues to rise afterward.
Support and resistance levels on the charts often correlate with the timing of events, confirming their influence on the market.

Conclusion:
Fundamental analysis and technical analysis confirm the importance of events such as forums and conferences for the cryptocurrency market.
Investors can use information about event schedules and price analysis to make decisions about entering or exiting positions in the market.
However, it's important to remember that the cryptocurrency market is always volatile, and no analysis guarantees successful investments. It's always important to conduct your own research and diversify your portfolio.