Bitcoin: Madness To 66K? Hate To Wait?

21 февр. 2021 г.

The 66K area is the next inflection point IF the current rate of momentum can follow through. The question is are you willing to take the risk? I have posed this question before at much lower levels and many investors are extremely frustrated because the market refuses to pull back and offer a more attractive price to enter. So what to do now?

There is no question that the trend is bullish and has been since the 14K breakout, but the trend alone is not enough to justify taking a risk. There are some important considerations to make like: what is your time horizon (short term or long term?), how much can you afford to risk? How much attention can you give the market?

How you answer these questions SHOULD shape part of your decision making process. For example: if you are long term oriented (no time or interest in watching charts all day) but you have some money that you would like to put to work, then one effective way to participate in this is by carefully building a position. This is something you could have done from much lower levels and we have been encouraging our followers to do this ALL ALONG. Control risk with size. This requires some planning and organization but a simple example is: you have 1K to invest, split it into 10 $100 purchases, now you are free to buy any price, with the objective to achieve some average price.

The common reaction that I have been noticing though is investor's extreme LACK of patience. Perhaps it is a result of the constant hype and stimulus found all over internet, or maybe it comes from peer pressure, either way it is irrational and will lead many investors to get too big, too fast at the WRONG time.

Strategies Are Relative.

What strategy you choose should relate to market conditions based on RISK. When markets are near peaks, long term strategies make the LEAST sense because the risk of retrace is too high. Swing trade and day trade strategies make much more sense because the risk can be strictly defined and controlled.

When Bitcoin and the entire space begins the next wave, (which can start from current levels or higher like mid 60Ks), it is going to be ugly and fast. Those who run out of patience and start piling in now without any regard for risk (and do not size properly) will be at the mercy of the market.

The NEXT support level is between the 46 and 50K area. IF price clears that, it is within proportion to test the 37K area. IF 37K is taken out (it can happen), then we would have confirmation that the next wave, (Wave 4) is likely in play.

It will take a significant catalyst to turn this bullish momentum around, and often it comes out of no where. As an investor and swing trader I am only interested in buying at attractive prices, and I have no problem waiting for them.

Thank you for considering my analysis and perspective, I hope you find it helpful.