The Bitcoin Megabull Cycle - Delayed till Dec 2016 to Feb 2017

19 сент. 2016 г.

This is a zoomed in 1D chart picking up on my previous Trading View chart of the Bitcoin Megabull Cycle which failed due to the unpredictable Bitfinex hack. On my previous chart we were supposed to bounce at $595 roughly and consolidate a bit further before attempting to retest $790 in September. However, the Bitfinex 70 million USD Dollar hack coupled with insiders shorters on all the exchanges brought the Bitcoin Market down on its knees with a retest of the previous old top @ $470 which we advised our followers on twitter to rebuy at as it was our oversold 1D target. $470 was the real bottom and it might not get revisited ever again unless the ascending yellow triangle side gets violated (see chart) which will result in a potential beginning of a bear market (unlikely currently).

Currently, Bitcoin is consolidating in the yellow outlined ascending triangle between $650 and $550 but pending a retest of previous support turning resistance at $650. Once $650 we have two potential scenarios that can happen:

(A) Most likely scenario - Seen in YELLOW on chart: After hitting $650 Bitcoin will drop back to $650-660 area to double bottom and resume the Bitcoin Megabull cycle to retest $790.

(B) Less likely scenario - Seen in RED on chart: Once $650 gets hit, Bitcoin will continue past that resistance after consolidating further (continuing the Megabull cycle) and retest $790.

In any of the two scenarios the outcome is still a retest of $790 in the end. Once $790 top gets hit (it could be also a bit lower e.g. $750) based on previous megabull Bitcoin cycles; BTC will consolidate in a wide range of $790 to $705 for 36 days (note the yellow triangle) before resuming the Megabull rally towards a new ATH (All Time High) target.

Tip: The deadline for the megabull cycle to resume is very important, we must resume the cycle before end of February 2017 otherwise we breakdown of the big ascending triangle and bear market ensue/starts again.

From there we will be able to continue our journey way higher as we head to the "moon". If we manage to hit $1100 Bitcoin could get higher due to increased media coverage and more interest / hype that will bring new money in to the market.

My conservative targets are: $1150, $2800 and $10,000 to $15,000 per Bitcoin
The current fractal maximum potential target is: $10,000 - 15,000

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22 окт. 2016 г.

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Currently Scenario B (Red line) is in effect as 4H 6H 12H 1D Bollinger Squeeze resolved very quickly to the upside blowing past $650 very easily. Hence starting the megabull as early as December 2016 (similar to December 2013 is very likely) :

(B) scenario - Seen in RED on chart: Once $650 gets hit, Bitcoin will continue past that resistance after consolidating further (continuing the Megabull cycle) and retest $790.

In any of the two scenarios the outcome is still a retest of $790 in the end. Once $790 top gets hit (it could be also a bit lower e.g. $750) based on previous megabull Bitcoin cycles; BTC will consolidate in a wide range of $790 to $705 for 36 days (note the yellow triangle) before resuming the Megabull rally towards a new ATH (All Time High) target.

Updated Chart:

27 окт. 2016 г.

Заметка

After studying a bit further the previous megabull cycles, the likeliness of having reached a top for the short term at $700-690 is rather possible based on the fractals.

November is supposed to be a month where Bitcoin consolidates/accumulates/chops for 36 days roughly in a wide range of $50.

In our case, if Bitcoin does top at $700-690 in the incoming days and fails to break the resistance, we will chop the entire month of November between $700 and $635



Here is a justified reason on why I have changed my views from a top at $790 or $750, it is pretty clear that in most instances we had a lower or on par top with the previous main resistance rather than the ATH:



I will publish another chart in the incoming days once $700-690 confirms as a top

31 окт. 2016 г.

Заметка

Well I gotta admit I screwed up pointing the exact top due to the CNY devaluation vs US dollar value:
$750 was 4950cny back in June, while as of October it corresponded to $725 hence why we stopped there instead of $750.

That said, based on the analysis of the previous patterns, the short term top was reached at 4950cny or $725. The long awaited 36 days of consolidation started October 29 and will end with a breakout roughly around December 3rd 2016.

My recommendation is to stay in coins at all time, unless you are a full time day traders who wants to make extra coins trading the boring chop/sideways. I will publish an updated zoomed in chart shortly, in the meantime here are some screenshots.

Zoomed out chart:


Zoomed in chart:

1 нояб. 2016 г.

Заметка

Last night we blew past that triangle, which means that the 36 days consolidation happened at $630 lows back in September thanks to the Bitfinex Hack which destroyed the charts and patterns. That said, this means the megabull has already started:

1 нояб. 2016 г.

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