If you think "Nah, it'd be an easy buy for retail." You are wrong. A long and painful accumulation does shake out retail every time. People will call 10k-9k-6k-3k so on and so on. And maybe some of these targets will be hit too. The point is we don't have a good accumulation pattern yet. You can't say this is the bottom until you see that long and painful trade range.
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12k is an obvious target. But will the market choose the obvious? I don't see many retail who thinks 15-16k will hold. But if 15k-17k range holds, it will look like a valid accumulation range. A huge and nice pattern to start the next bull run. If this is not the case we are really heading towards 12k, that means recovery will take much more time, if it ever going to happen. We will find out.
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Imagine this pain. A hated rally and next leg down:
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The scenario in the above comment is just fantasy btw. I don't have much to support it. I'd still say "12k first" is a higher probability.
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Honestly there is a real possibility for a mid-term BTC rally. And I think it'd end with a historical crash if it won't get supported by a FED QE. We have many resistances in a short range. So i think we can see a manipulative slow rally maybe to trap everyone in short at each step and then elevator down when the market is ready. Personally i won't be trading that rally. Right now i have shorts and they are close to break even. I'll close them gradually above 21.600 and then wait for a good setıup to trade.
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What would change my mind? This: