Bitcoin: Bear Candle Sell Signal, But We're Out.

25 окт. 2020 г.

Bitcoin is now poised to retrace off of the mid 13K resistance projection. A break of today's potentially bearish candle low would be considered a sell signal based on our swing trade strategy. The same strategy that generated two long signals in 3 weeks, and both trade ideas reached ALL three respective targets. The third target on our second trade (which I briefly mentioned on here before sharing details privately) was in the 13,250 area. Each trade averaged over 1K points. Not bad for using simple information that is actually RELEVANT to the market (no oscillators or complexity required). We do this for stocks too.

Our profit targets were strategically distributed between the low 11Ks into the low 13Ks and based on price proportions, these are the locations that are more vulnerable to bearish price action. Again this is from a SWING trade perspective, which has a time horizon of a couple of days to a few weeks. Has NOTHING to do with investing. These targets were implemented at the time of each trade, these were not "reactions" to news or other random information.

Yet, I still get the question: Now a good time to buy Bitcoin?

In terms of swing trades, and even longer term position trades, the answer is NO. Why would buy into an area where probability favors weakness?

At this point we WAIT for the next retrace before putting on any new swing trades. The previous resistance zone (11,600 to 12,300) is now an anticipated support. This is where we want to see 3 things develop: 1) price stability at an attractive location 2) the setup (pin bar, etc) 3) price confirmation. Once we have that, we can measure RISK and will be prompted to share a new swing trade idea.

How long can this process take? A few days to a few weeks. Either way we WAIT. Waiting is actually why our track record is consistent and profitable.

Thank you for taking the time to consider my analysis. I hope you find it helpful.