So... we ARE or we AREN'T in a bear market?
Everyone defines bear vs bull market differently. For some, we never even got into a bull market. For others, the bear market started when we broke the daily 200 SMA. For others, it started when we broke the monthly 10 SMA. It's probably best to think of it this way: IT DOESN'T MATTER BECAUSE IT'S TOTALLY SUBJECTIVE. All we're doing is trying to find a way to label price action for the sake of informing our trades: namely, if we should be shorting or longing. Nobody is right or wrong when it comes to how they are defining bull vs bear markets.
For now, the monthly 21 EMA is supporting price. If you look back to the (only) two other times we've been in this situation - ie, under monthly 10 SMA, above monthly 21 EMA - it wasn't until 10 SMA started getting a negative slope that the plunge into a new "bear market" happened. I think this is noteworthy, as 1) I certainly wouldn't expect a big (ie 30% to 50% drop) to happen until the monthly 10 SMA gets a negative slope, and 2. I wouldn't put it past bitcoin to surprise us and do its first monthly 10 SMA fakeout by heading back up from here.
For now, the monthly 21 EMA is supporting price. If you look back to the (only) two other times we've been in this situation - ie, under monthly 10 SMA, above monthly 21 EMA - it wasn't until 10 SMA started getting a negative slope that the plunge into a new "bear market" happened. I think this is noteworthy, as 1) I certainly wouldn't expect a big (ie 30% to 50% drop) to happen until the monthly 10 SMA gets a negative slope, and 2. I wouldn't put it past bitcoin to surprise us and do its first monthly 10 SMA fakeout by heading back up from here.
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