BITCOIN: INTRA-BUBBLE LOWS PERIOD = 36(+/-2.5) WEEKS

2 мая 2014 г.

This expanded version of a my prior published idea "GENERIC POST-BUBBLE STRONG REVERSAL INDICATOR" helps illustrate its point more clearly. I've linked it to the aforementioned related one, which you should consult to obtain the original details/description.

※ Since indicators do not refresh, you may view an active version of the chart here — tradingview.com/e/uGwzXJ0V/ — to see it vindicates the accuracy of the predicted support levels.

Observations:

•The sharp crashes which occur after a bubble has peaked tend to first exhibit a significant recovery/pullback rally prior to the second/subsequent further major drops before interim bottom. What I show again here is that you can tell when that second crash has recovered because the relative percentage of RSI increase will be at least as large as it was in the case of the first one. I've shown the pairs of them above in red and green, respectively.

•What also tends to be the case is that once this RSI 'bottom' has been established it acts as support against further RSI-crashing below that point, as well as that once the recovery level is exceed that will act as a secondary support as well.

•There is an approximately 252±17.5–day cycle of the intra-bubble bottoms, as measure from their peaks.
I also believe that a larger 'double-bubble' structure adheres to an approximately 448–day cycle, I call an "EPOCH", over which the degree of exponential growth accelerates. See my linked chart "EPOCH 3: A 60-Week–Long Bubblecast" for further insights.

Note: As with all my charts, these findings are statistical. I do not pretend to have any insider information or special knowledge of market psychology which should contribute additional meaning to these observations.