The Bitcoin/Gold ratio continues to decline. This ratio, indicating how much gold is needed to buy one Bitcoin, has experienced a significant drop over the past two years. In November 2021, the ratio stood at 35, but by 2023, it had decreased to 15. According to Longtermtrends' calculations, in January 2022, this ratio narrowed from 24 to 9 by the end of the year during the cryptocurrency market downturn. In 2023, the ratio fluctuated between 10 and 15, showing that fewer ounces of gold are now required to purchase Bitcoin, indicating gold's superior performance compared to Bitcoin. Bitcoin awaits a resurgence driven by external catalysts.
The impact of the Federal Reserve's decision to maintain or reduce interest rates will affect the pricing of both Gold and Bitcoin. While low-interest rates are often seen as positive for Gold, as they reduce the opportunity cost of holding the yellow metal, Bitcoin's price reaction depends on multiple factors.
If the Fed's monetary policy reflects pre-emptive responses to economic concerns or economic downturns, it could push Bitcoin prices higher. However, there are factors beyond interest rates to consider. A potential recovery is looming with the Bitcoin halving event scheduled for April 2024. Additionally, the approval possibility of a Bitcoin ETF just before the SEC's first deadline on January 10 could serve as a catalyst for Bitcoin. This was hinted at by recent reports of ETF approvals that swiftly propelled BTC up by 10%.
This means that if the Fed decides to maintain high-interest rates, it may exert downward pressure on Gold prices over time, but Bitcoin could still maintain its upward momentum based on other catalysts.
Based on Forbes' report, markets and policymakers expect interest rates to only decrease by late 2024. Geopolitics and policies also influence the price movements of both assets, making the relationship more complex. However, based on predictions surrounding the Fed's policy decisions and catalysts such as ETF approvals and the potential halving-induced price surge, Bitcoin might gradually start to outperform Gold in the coming year.
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