Bitcoin: Next Higher Low Long?

25 дек. 2021 г.

Over the previous week, Bitcoin (and numerous alt coins) took out a key resistance at 50K. This outcome signifies an important change in structure from corrective to realigning with the broader BULLISH trend. This resistance break as a long trade idea is very aggressive and high risk (as initial moves usually are). Here's what I am anticipating next:

The higher low or double bottom. People who follow me know that I have been describing these two conservative scenarios for weeks now. WAIT for the initial move and then the pullback. The entire process can take a week or 2. Bitcoin has accomplished the first part, which is the initial move and resistance break. So in theory, price is more likely to unfold in higher lows and higher highs. The zone between 48K and 45K would be ideal for bullish reversals to appear for new bullish swing trade ideas.

For the less patient, here is another more aggressive swing trade possibility for the coming week: price establishes one or two inside bars within the range of the 48 to 50K candle. Often, when a market does not want to retrace, there may be some further momentum follow through within the initial move. In such a scenario price may run into the 53 to 55K area before contending with another resistance. The risk here is high because the location is less than ideal, AND the market hasn't proven that it no longer wants to make lower lows. This type of trade requires strict attention, and monitoring for any fake outs which are very likely.

Keep in mind, we are in the midst of a holiday week. Bitcoin and the stock market (coincidence?) are likely reacting to general optimism or "holiday mode". Be AWARE of this. This means maintain more conservative profit targets and don't put on too much risk or overexpose yourself. Things can change VERY quickly once volume returns to normal. Unless you day trade, there really is not much reason to be doing anything in this period.

As long as the rising interest rate scenario continues (watch the Dollar index and the bonds), these markets have very limited potential at current levels.

Thank you for considering my analysis and perspective. I hope you find it helpful.

And happy holiday to the ever supportive and generous TV community.