BTC: Are Investors Euphoric? Team Bulls vs Team Bears

6 нояб. 2020 г.

Bitcoin continued its month long surge on Thursday (Friday), rising more than 9% to pass $15,000 for the first time since January 2018 - and beating 2019's ATH, defeating all odds of the COVID-19 and Presidential Election cycle.
Bitcoin, with more than 30% in the past month, comes as the outcome of Tuesday's US presidential election remains uncertain. That backdrop of continued election turmoil, coupled with the prospect of continued government spending and easy monetary policy regardless of who wins the presidency all solidify one thing: Bitcoin is no doubt back in demand.

But that doesn't come with an easy ticket. With a high of more than $15,200 in Thursday trading, bitcoin hasn't sat at this level since the early stages of its late 2017 bubble unraveling when it topped out at just below $20,000. Bitcoin went on to fall as much as 80% from its peak over the ensuing year, bottoming out near $3,700.

Bitcoin was bound to break the $14,000 resistance level on "positive long-term momentum" (we've had a series of eventful bullish-fundamental news) - and now we may have "room to enter overbought territory." Traders most likely have their eyes set on clusters of resistance near bitcoin's all time high of just under $20,000 - this is where the 'intersection of death' occurs, the official label that I would like to call it. The breakout puts the next and final resistance at the high from 2017 above $19,500 and could consolidate sideways for a few weeks before reaching those levels to give short term bears the chance to create some form of upper hand for them - if that even happens.

There are some signs of short-term upside exhaustion from an overbought/oversold perspective, supporting a few weeks of consolidation, but we would see this as healthy from a technical perspective. Support for bitcoin is currently around the $12,500 level, and a healthy retrace to those levels would NOT be a bad thing.

Remember, which each consecutive run, we will always find reasons and speculative factors for the price action. Personally, as a long term Bitcoin fundamentalist - I see Bitcoin reaching unbelievable highs just based on the OVERALL trend. But positioning is crucial here. The market is much smarter than it was back in 2018. No rules, no real alt coins existed. The market is much more fundamentally stronger than it was before, but then again, investors are also more cautious with each rise.

Also, major factors and things to consider:

The market is heavily bullish at the moment, especially after an incredible unexpected recovery from the COVID-19 crash.

1. We have a technical bearish divergence on the monthly which can lead to lower prices.
2. Bears are 'smarter' - and the bear team is larger than it was in 2018 due to the introduction of leveraged markets (many people forget this).
3. Biden victory vs. Trump victory
4. COVID19 Pandemic
5. Unfilled CME Gaps

Trade Safe.
X Force

6 нояб. 2020 г.

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Here are is an attached idea in order to get a fit for the smaller time frames.

6 нояб. 2020 г.

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