My Perspective:
I believe that buyers entered too early. Their reasons for doing so made sense:
- EMA 200
- 2.618 Fib
- Stochastic divergence
- Stochastic oversold
- Prior support
Albeit their entry made sense, the downtrend is not yet exhausted.
- TD Sequential 7-of-9
- TD Countdown 10-of-13
- Close below 2.618 Fib
- Close below EMA 144 (circled)
Please note that after major buying waves where price has pulled back and closed below EMA 144 (circled), price fell to EMA 305 where the ultimate bottom was found. I expect that this will happen again. Expect price to break down imminently to major 1.618 Fib support.
I believe that buyers entered too early. Their reasons for doing so made sense:
- EMA 200
- 2.618 Fib
- Stochastic divergence
- Stochastic oversold
- Prior support
Albeit their entry made sense, the downtrend is not yet exhausted.
- TD Sequential 7-of-9
- TD Countdown 10-of-13
- Close below 2.618 Fib
- Close below EMA 144 (circled)
Please note that after major buying waves where price has pulled back and closed below EMA 144 (circled), price fell to EMA 305 where the ultimate bottom was found. I expect that this will happen again. Expect price to break down imminently to major 1.618 Fib support.
Комментарий:
Price is within the Nison PB&J strategy short sweetspot. Price has pulled back into the area between MA 10 and EMA 30. This price area represents a high probability opportunity for short sellers to exploit over-eager traders buying at the high of a swing. The ~perfect~ short entry would be on the close of a reversal candlestick pattern which hits EMA 30; for example a Shooting/Evening Star, or Bullish Engulfing Pattern. Ideally, you buy on the close of the pattern with a stop loss above the high of the pattern.
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Confirmation of Hypothesis:
1D:
1W:
1D:
1W:
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Short:
SL: $32,400
Target: $22,000
SL: $32,400
Target: $22,000
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I've closed my short and opened my long position now.
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