BTC - Heads Shoulders Knees and Toes

30 дек. 2021 г.

BTC is still below The Median Line of its Longterm Upwards Pitchfork Pattern on this 1d timeframe.

Note that BTC has not closed a daily candle below the Lower Yellow Pitchfork Support Line since the 7th Nov 2020.

Note that BTC has previously found support from this Lower Yellow Pitchfork Support Line on the 20th and 21st of July 2021.

BTC is still below its Bollinger Bands Middle Band Basis 20 Period SMA for this 1d timeframe. Not that the Upper and Lower Bands are still heading slightly sideways but we do have a bit of expansion so we should expect more negative expansion if the price continues to drop.

BTC is still below its Least Squares Moving Average (LSMA) for this 1d timeframe. A close above the LSMA is a BUY signal and a close below the LSMA is a SELL signal for this indicator.

The Head and Shoulders Pattern is still running its course. BTC needs to stay above the Lower Support Area i have indicated or next stop will be the H&S Neckline.

BTC is still below its Volume Profile Visible Range Point of Control (VPVR POC) for this chart’s Visible Range.

BTC is below its Volume Profile Fixed Range Point of Control (VPFR POC) for the Fixed Range of 13x 1d candles that i have selected.

Note that the last 2 Volume Bars have closed above its Volume 20 Period MA and they closed in the red.

I have added a Trend-Based Fib Extension which show a few potential Fib levels that could be used for potential profit taking if you are short.

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is indicating that we may possibly see a SELL signal on this indicator because you can clearly see that the MACD (Blue Line) is very close to crossing back under the Signal Line (Orange Line), which is a sell signal for this indicator. Note that the MACD Line (Blue Line) is still in the Negative Zone under the 0.0 Base Line.



If we look at the Stochastic Indicator (STOCH), we can see that the %K (Blue Line) is still under its %D (Orange Line) and is also in the Oversold Zone under the 20 Line. At the moment, if the %K (Blue Line) crosses back above the %D (Orange Line) I personally would not jump in on a long using this indicator alone, i would asses how the daily candle closed as well to check if there is any potential Divergence between the STOCH and the price.



If we look at the Average Directional Index (ADX DI) we can see that the Trend Strength is strong with the ADX (Orange Line) rising to 30.55. We may see the ADX (Orange Line) cross back above its 9 Period EMA (Black line) which is at 32.39 and would be a further sign of the Trend Strength. The -DI (Red Line) is at 31.92 and way above its +DI (Green Line) which is at 16.06. This indicates that Negative Momentum is hugely dominant over Positive Momentum on this 1d timeframe.



For your viewing pleasure, here is a closer look at this 1d chart.



For your viewing pleasure, here is a wider look at the Longterm Pitchfork Pattern (A,B,C) on this 1d chart.



Looking at the previous 6d Chart i did, note that BTC is 2 days aways from closing this 6d candle which may potentially close as a BEARISH ENGULFING Candle on the 6d timeframe. But a lot can happen and change in 2 days.



So what does all this mean?

If the MACD produces a SELL Signal on this 1d timeframe then we will see further drops on this 1d timeframe. If BTC crosses below and more importantly CLOSES a daily candle below its CRUCIAL Lower Yellow Pitchfork Support Line then that becomes resistance and we should expect that BTC will eventually cross under the H&S neckline leading to even further drops that may be cushioned by some of the Trend-Based Fib Extension levels. In any case, a lot can happen in 2 days but at the moment it looks like there may still be some really good buying opportunities coming up for all crypto in general.


I hope you have found this analysis post helpful with your trading and hodl-ing.



Notes:
LSMA = Black Squiggly Line on chart
Bollinger Bands = Grey Bands on chart
Pitchfork Pattern = Follow the A,B,C
VPFR POC = Short Horizontal Blue Dotted Line on chart
VPVR POC = Long Horizontal Blue Dotted Line on chart
Support and Resistance Areas = Black Horizontal Lines with Blue Shading on chart
H&S Pattern = You know where that is ;-)