How You Can Be Wrong and Still Make Money in Trading

4 окт.

In trading, the concepts of "right" and "wrong" are far more nuanced than they might appear at first glance. Many new traders tend to focus on the binary outcome of individual trades — a win feels "right," while a loss feels "wrong."
However, the reality is more complex. You can be "right" in the short term and "wrong" in the long term, and vice versa. Additionally, you can be wrong more often than not and still be profitable, depending on how you manage your risk. Let’s dive into these ideas and explore how you can shift your mindset to become a more successful trader.


Short-Term Success vs. Long-Term Gains

In trading, it’s possible to make the right decision based on short-term movements but be wrong in the bigger picture. For example, you might catch a bullish breakout on a stock or currency pair, ride the momentum for a quick profit, and exit your trade thinking you were "right." However, the same asset could enter a prolonged downtrend shortly afterward, meaning your initial trade was correct in the short term but wrong in the long-term outlook.

Conversely, you could be "wrong" in the short term by entering a trade too early, seeing some losses, but if your broader analysis holds true, you could eventually profit when the market moves in your favor. In these cases, it’s not just about the immediate outcome, but about how your trades fit into the larger trend or strategy.

This balance between short-term and long-term thinking is critical. Often, traders lose sight of the bigger picture because they are too focused on short-term fluctuations. Markets move up and down constantly, and understanding the difference between short-term noise and long-term trends is key to sustained profitability.

A Real-Life Example: Who Was Right?

Let’s illustrate this with a real-world scenario.
Imagine you bought Bitcoin in 2021 at $50,000, and after, the price dropped to $15,000.
Now, let’s say I sold Bitcoin in 2021 at a high price before the drop. Who was right, and who was wrong?

In the short term, I appeared "right" because I made money on my short trade when the price of Bitcoin fell. On the other hand, you seemed "wrong" when the price dropped to $15,000, significantly below your purchase price.

But fast forward to today. Bitcoin's price has risen again, and you’re now back in profit on your long-term trade. So, were you wrong? No — you held through the bearish cycle, and over time, your patience paid off. In this case, both of us were right depending on the time frame.

This example highlights the importance of understanding the context of "right" and "wrong" in trading. The outcome of a trade can vary depending on your time horizon and strategy. What might seem like a losing position in the short term could turn into a winning trade over the long term.

The Role of Time Horizon and Stop Losses

I sometime receive comments from people claiming I was "wrong" when I make a prediction about an asset going up or down, only for the price to move in the opposite direction in the immediate instance. What many don’t consider is my time horizon or where my stop loss is set.

Every trade comes with a planned strategy: an entry, a time horizon, and most importantly, a stop loss. Without understanding these elements, it's easy to jump to conclusions about whether a trade is "right" or "wrong." A trade may appear wrong at first, but it’s only truly wrong if it hits my stop loss or fails within my intended timeframe.

It’s crucial for traders to remember that the market doesn't move in straight lines. Prices fluctuate, and often, the noise of daily movements can make it seem like a trade is going against you before it eventually turns around. This is why having a clear strategy, including a stop loss and a well-defined time horizon, is essential for long-term success. It’s not about getting every trade right in the short term — it’s about managing the bigger picture.

A Recent Example: Right or Wrong?

Let’s look at a more recent example. This week, Gold dropped by 400 pips at one point. I catched part of this move, made money during the drop, and took my profits. However, Gold is now trading slightly above the price where it started at the beginning of the week. Meanwhile, a friend of mine remained strongly bullish, expecting Gold to eventually break $2700 — and it seems like he will be right at this moment.

So, who was right, and who was wrong? The truth is, we were both right. I made money on a short-term drop, while my friend may see profits from his medium-term bullish outlook. The key takeaway here is that different trading styles can yield profitable outcomes even when the direction of the trade appears contradictory.

This example highlights the importance of understanding what type of trader you are: Are you a short-term trader looking to capitalize on daily moves? A swing trader aiming for mid-term profits? Or a long-term investor waiting for broader trends to unfold? Each approach requires a different mindset, strategy, and time horizon.

The Power of Risk-Reward Ratios

One of the most critical principles in trading is managing your risk. Many traders believe that to be successful, they need to win more than they lose. However, this isn’t necessarily true. You can be wrong six out of ten times and still make money if your risk-to-reward ratio is favorable.

For instance, with a risk-reward ratio of 1:2, every time you risk $1, you aim to make $2 in profit. If you take ten trades and lose six, you might lose $6. But if you win the remaining four trades and each nets you $2 in profit, you make $8. That leaves you with a net profit of $2, even though you were "wrong" more often than you were "right." This approach emphasizes the importance of managing risk over being correct on every trade.

The lesson here is that it's not about how often you're right but how much you make when you're right and how little you lose when you're wrong. Having a sound risk management strategy, such as a 1:2 or higher risk-reward ratio, can help you remain profitable even with a lower win rate.

Embracing the Reality of Losses

In trading, losses are inevitable. Even the best traders in the world lose money on some portion of their trades. The key is how you handle those losses. Many novice traders fall into the trap of believing that every loss is a failure, leading to frustration and emotional decision-making. In reality, losses are just part of the process.

The most successful traders understand that losing trades is also part of their strategy. They manage their losses by sticking to a disciplined approach, cutting losing trades quickly, and letting winners run. They don’t let a few wrong trades derail their confidence or strategy. This is where having a clear plan and sticking to your risk-reward parameters is crucial.

Shifting Your Mindset

To succeed in trading, you need to shift your mindset from focusing on being right or wrong on individual trades to thinking in terms of probabilities and long-term success. Trading isn’t about having a 100% success rate — it’s about having a consistent edge and managing risk effectively.

If you can accept that losses are part of the journey and focus on maintaining a favorable risk-reward ratio, you'll find that being "wrong" on trades won’t prevent you from being profitable overall. The key is to stay disciplined, stick to your plan, and always think about the bigger picture.

Conclusion: Redefining Right and Wrong in Trading

In the end, the concepts of right and wrong in trading are more fluid than they initially seem. You can be wrong more often than you're right and still be profitable, provided you manage your risk and maintain a favorable risk-reward ratio. Similarly, you can be right in the short term but wrong in the long term or vice-versa and still make money.

The next time you analyze a trade, remember: success isn't about being right on every trade, but about managing your trades wisely and thinking in terms of probabilities. Trading is a marathon, not a sprint, and understanding the balance between short-term outcomes and long-term success is what separates the average traders from the truly successful ones.

Best of luck!
Mihai Iacob