Final 20% drop scenario in play
I'm now bullish and spot loaded after 8 months of shorting, targeting $18k.
My last short from $32k targeted $18k level with the aim of setting a leveraged long.
- Spot ALTs are in place
- The leveraged long is not in place as yet
- The leveraged long target laddering across $16 to $17k - the following structure needs to complete or is invalidated by a climb above $25k before any leverage.
- The risk for longs here is a 20% drop under recent $17,500 low
Final Local Bottoming process:
1. Price fails to break resistance @ $21,700. This process takes a few days, whales buying. ALTs begin to lose value. Calls for $13k return.
2. Price crashes & forms a new low. 24 hours at final low of $17k. Late entries to the rally in the last few days panic sell. Leveraged longs are stopped out + traders short the break of previous low creating liquidity for Whale longs.
3. Price rallies sharply above $25k on its way to $40k.
We hit my original $18k target inline with market structure so price could happily continue thus will not short. However, this is such a nice trap nd we haven't seen massive volume spikes as yet so I give this scenario 60% likelihood of materialising thus I am taking profits on some Spot to prep for lower entries
Best, Hard Forky
Final Short at $32k
Spot Long at $17,900
I'm now bullish and spot loaded after 8 months of shorting, targeting $18k.
My last short from $32k targeted $18k level with the aim of setting a leveraged long.
- Spot ALTs are in place
- The leveraged long is not in place as yet
- The leveraged long target laddering across $16 to $17k - the following structure needs to complete or is invalidated by a climb above $25k before any leverage.
- The risk for longs here is a 20% drop under recent $17,500 low
Final Local Bottoming process:
1. Price fails to break resistance @ $21,700. This process takes a few days, whales buying. ALTs begin to lose value. Calls for $13k return.
2. Price crashes & forms a new low. 24 hours at final low of $17k. Late entries to the rally in the last few days panic sell. Leveraged longs are stopped out + traders short the break of previous low creating liquidity for Whale longs.
3. Price rallies sharply above $25k on its way to $40k.
We hit my original $18k target inline with market structure so price could happily continue thus will not short. However, this is such a nice trap nd we haven't seen massive volume spikes as yet so I give this scenario 60% likelihood of materialising thus I am taking profits on some Spot to prep for lower entries
Best, Hard Forky
Final Short at $32k
Spot Long at $17,900
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Oh, look...
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Crunch Time
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end
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21,888... ok, I placed a small short at 21,750 but focusing on the low Long
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Considering the chance of a retest of resistance after close from 21k to 21,9.
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