Apologies for posting this as an "idea", but I don't manage to get sufficient reputation points to actually post comments on other ideas / to participate in the chat.
I was looking at the CME January contract
There is an open interest of 139 contracts only, that's slightly less than 700 BTCs. In dollar terms this is tiny, in addition these would be held by different parties... I can see no investor out there large/interested enough to manipulate the BTC market and profit from this. Furthermore, the last trade-able date is today, but the actual valuation (cash settlement) takes place on the 31st, this day would seem more relevant (if at all)?
Of course, if the whole market (incorrectly) believes today is important... then that in itself can make it important.
Correct me if I'm wrong?
I was looking at the CME January contract
There is an open interest of 139 contracts only, that's slightly less than 700 BTCs. In dollar terms this is tiny, in addition these would be held by different parties... I can see no investor out there large/interested enough to manipulate the BTC market and profit from this. Furthermore, the last trade-able date is today, but the actual valuation (cash settlement) takes place on the 31st, this day would seem more relevant (if at all)?
Of course, if the whole market (incorrectly) believes today is important... then that in itself can make it important.
Correct me if I'm wrong?
IMO... If there is a move at 4PM London time, it will be due to a complete misunderstanding of the futures market.