Fundamental Analysis: It works

24 сент. 2019 г.

Hey, hey, hey! Wassup wassup wassup? Bitcoinnect!!!

You'll be happy to know the $50 I left on my Bitmex account when I defenitively quit crypto are doing very well.
Went short 130 bucks saturday morning at the price of $10090, and that went rather well :D
So as long as this little money survives I'll still look a little bit and make calls and you'll still hear from me.

So as you can see, fundamental, in this case we can maybe call it news, analysis works!
Coupled with TA in the form of that descending triangle, it worked like a charm.



As an individual, being a firm by yourself, knowing 1 market inside out has its rewards, but it is also pretty risky.
1 way to do it I could suggest if you want to go this way would be:
- Have 1 to 3 markets that are your specialty (the more you have the less info you'll have on 1). If you trade very short term probably 1 is max, higher TF 3 is ok you just go for the big moves maybe.
- Have 1-2 strategies you are really good at, and a handful of other markets you don't know great, but well enough to trade if your mains are being slow for a while.
Example: When BTC was flat in August-November 2018 you likely could not have traded it great. Looking somewhere else would be interesting.



Back to BTC.

In December 2017, people that knew a little about future predicted that CME launch would mark the top for Bitcoin.
This is going to be the top for a couple of years at least, maybe forever...
I wonder if the BTC decimated investor community are going to get mad at "wall street" for "killing" Bitcoin with futures?

The first futures in history date back from babylon 1750 BC, they were some kind of agriculture future.
I'm just going to copy it from wikipedia:


Futures are known for "crashing markets" because producers, when futures become available, use them to sell their products early on at a guarenteed price.
I speculate that the price crash is often violent because once futures open alot of producers are going to be interested but there won't be much speculators to absorb their orders.
Or it could just be that the market becomes more efficient and the price finds its more right spot.
In a futures market you need hedgers (producers or even buyers such as the company making corn flakes being corn buyers) and speculators.
Afaik no futures market has ever worked without the 2 being present.

So we can see that it is likely that what happened with CME futures is that all these miners (you must have heard the stories) "I sold my house to buy Bitcoin mining equipement" vastly reduced their risk (their risk of not getting their equipement money back) by purchasing selling contracts, basically "I will sell 5 Bitcoins in the future at a price of $19000", as long as they'll mine those 5 BTC, they have nothing to worry about, they will be able to sell them at that price.

For the other large futures company, the ICE, and their overhyped Bakkt futures, the logic is different.
Here, people were excited and prepared to see large institutions start buying massive amounts of BTC (don't ask me why they thought this would happen).
And day 1 went like this: 65 BTC were traded in total. Day 2: 163 BTC traded.
And of course, no institutions are interested. Once again. But some people thought they would suddenly change their minds and bought BTC in anticipation for this.



So here, today we learned something important.