Possible January scenarios (BTCUSD)

5 янв. 2018 г.

BTC seems to be drawing a flag and a symmetrical triangle on the 1 day chart.

The flag (light blue channel) displays 3 touch points so far:
- the low on Dec 9th
- the all time high on Dec 17th
- the low on Dec 22nd

The top edge of the flag also acts as the top edge of the triangle (blue line). The bottom edge of the triangle is the support line confirmed by the lows on Nov 12, Dec 22nd and Dec 30th.

Therefore, the price is currently climbing towards the top edge of the flag/triangle (blue line) and it will probably touch it along the area marked by the double headed blue arrow. At that point it has these options:

I. continues upward with an early breakout

II. goes down to the red line for a new touch around the area marked by the double headed red arrow.
II.a. Then it can continue downward with a breakout
or
II.b. bounce off the red line again and most likely into an upward breakout.

Scenario I should unfold no later than January 13th and is invalidated if price bounces off the blue line. Scenario II.a. can only be invalidated by Scenario II.b. We should know before January 23rd.

Considering the above, here is what I will/won't be doing:
- I won't open new long positions now as we're too close to the blue line. Will buy if it breaks the blue decisively or closes a day above blue.
- In case of a retest of red line I will buy only if price bounces back and then increase my position if Scenario II.b. unfolds.

Haven't figured out price targets so far, but I think 22-25k is plausible in case of upward breakout, with possible resistance met around current ATH. As for the downward breakout, 7.7-8k is a reasonable area.

I will be probably making updates to this post, stay tuned.
EDIT: some may see boxes instead of double headed arrows on the chart. Not sure why.

This post reflects my opinion and is not to be considered financial advice.

6 янв. 2018 г.

Заметка

Showing some signs of weakness close to the top edge, as expected. It may consolidate and continue with a breakout, or start dropping. Looking for momentum/price divergence to confirm a drop. This means a quick leg up above the 17k mark before the real pull back starts.

8 янв. 2018 г.

Заметка

Scenario I is out the window, we didn't have an early breakout. Right now price is heading towards the lower edge, hoping to find support around 13.5k. If successful it will rule out scenario II.a. for the time being, meaning that II b. (upward breakout upon triangle completion) becomes the favorite outcome. If support is broken, it confirms Scenario II a and we can expect a rally to 8k.