Coiling around an old friend, follow the yellow brick floor...

28 мая 2020 г.

Yes, I know the bear scenarios. I have them myself. Yes, I get that the current formation looks a lot like Feb-March. But -- that was pre-covid and pre-halving, this is post-covid and post-halving, so I can't really expect an identical resolution of dumping to follow. The "toppy" formations might look the same, but the fundamentals aren't.

This is a very speculative sketch, obviously, but it covers the main points I would expect to get hit along the way.

Anyways, this is how I see the rally channel holding (with a few touches of the lower edge), and the triangle resolving (not quite the abcde some have shown). I noticed the bullish momentum running out and forming the upper curve, once that broke I shorted. Now I wonder if we'll see the inverse appear, a gradual rise forming from the zigzag chop, creating the lower curve which eventually breaks us out the top. This should confuse bears and bulls alike for a week or so.

And yes, I would expect the old 2017 ATH bear market ceiling line to be a significant resistance -- but I also think the bulls that dragged us here know full well that the sight of that ceiling breaking will spark a major FOMO rally to 14K+, so they'll forcefully breach it on purpose.

I'll post the zoomed-out view in the comments to show where this yellow line we are currently coiling around comes from...

28 мая 2020 г.

Заметка

28 мая 2020 г.

Заметка

Reached the 0.618 and bulls getting impatient to reach the triangle top. Expecting some whiplash here, changed pink path to show new possibilities. Anything's possible inside this range, really, not a good place for leverage, lots of scalp reversals

29 мая 2020 г.

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spot prices haven't quite hit their triangle top - but interestingly CME futures has a slightly steeper triangle top, and could easily make the case it's already been hit. That would make for a very tidy abcde...

30 мая 2020 г.

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my original pink path sketch assumed bulls would be grinding up against bear pressure from the bottom of the triangle -- but it would seem bull pressure is the dominant factor, so the breakout will be high-side, with bears waiting for a floor touch that never comes. CME futures are closed for the weekend, allowing spot whales to push us "untethered", so I would expect a high on this leg in the 9800 zone, then pullback to 9500 to close the CME gap from last close late sunday, then breakout of the triangle (maybe pausing at 10K), retest of triangle top, and then new highs.

31 мая 2020 г.

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some drama as we touched the triangle top - but we appear to have made another local top instead, and have now started forming a second rising bear arc. If this resolves like the last one, then a trip to 9K at the bottom of the triangle seems inevitable before any bull run.

1 июн. 2020 г.

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breakout came early, more bull to come 😉