An Idea - BTC - Segwit 2017 = Tether 2021

18 янв. 2021 г.

This is a republication after I realized how confusing the arrow on the last one looked.

The pattern we are making has a lot in common with the July 2017 Segwit crash. Looking for a strong rejection from the red zone after bouncing from the green zone (bottom left). Possible to not bounce in the green zone and break through. Bounce off green and through red, then a good chance this is all over an on to higher highs.

Let's see how this plays out. Mostly watch the two bottom charts. 4 Hour on the bottom left and 1 Hour on the bottom right.

I just publish the charts I'm using and don't pretty them up for you. It may not play out exactly.


2017 Reference

18 янв. 2021 г.

Заметка

Closer up for clarity.

MA needs to break.



Horizontal support needs to break.

18 янв. 2021 г.

Заметка

Another view without the clutter for comparison to the Segwit 2017 crash.

19 янв. 2021 г.

Заметка

After the last update, the MA and horizontal support did hold , so we did not get the leg down, then broke out of the falling wedge with a perfect retrace on the 4Hr. This was a bullish sign and the price now reflects it. Sorry I couldn't update when it happened.

We are now on a candle after a 4Hr TD9 Sell and hitting resistance. Generally, the 4Hr TD9s have reversed the trend and pulling back from the candle after make the pull back bigger.

I'll be watching to see if we can test the bottom of the triangle again. Buying has been strong any time we dip into the accumulation zone on the daily chart (top left) which has me feeling more bullish and may not allow us to go that low. On the bear side, we have yet to make a higher high.

I think everyone is watching the same thing at this point. May be fairly flat until the political stuff in the US is over tomorrow... or steps up a level.

19 янв. 2021 г.

Заметка

Pull back right on schedule.

I'm watching this current bounced from on the 1Hr and the $36 - 35.5 reload zone and $34.8 support. New 4Hr candle coming up in ~30min. If we don't bounce back up in the new 4 4Hr candles then we may have a more sustained pull back. Will be watching the black horizontal on the bigger symmetrical triangle.

20 янв. 2021 г.

Заметка

The support levels fought hard but eventually broke and hit my black horizontal support a little ahead of schedule, which is okay. I am always okay with redrawing a triangle. Support and resistance levels come first.

So, we are now entering The Final Countdown. youtube.com/watch?v=MvXUZKEkhDA

I'm watching the lower level time frames for reversal signs. I'll see if I can analyze the next day or so for signals, but at the moment I'm about 50/50 up or down.

I do want to note, be prepared for a fake out down or out. Way too many people are watching the same thing which is a ripe situation to trap traders into a position who move before confirmation. I'll do my best to point out if there is a strong support or resistance close to the exit of the triangle.

We are way over extended and due for a pull back similar to June/July 2017, but on the flip side we are in a Bitcoin bull and anyone who was around in 2017 knows logic will be defied at some point.

20 янв. 2021 г.

Заметка

Support is still holding. Only a wick down for a perfect test of the bottom of the symmetrical triangle.

All eye on the 4Hr 100 EMA. It has been a significant support and we are now below it. Bulls will need to prove they can break it. I'm considering a position if we can take a higher low with stop under the swing low.

21 янв. 2021 г.

Заметка

4 Hour double support line at $30,820 to watch carefully.

22 янв. 2021 г.

Заметка

22 янв. 2021 г.

Заметка

Red are areas of resistance. Green, support.

1Hr TD9 Sell headed to Sell Zone.

22 янв. 2021 г.

Заметка

24 янв. 2021 г.

Заметка

7 and 8 vs 2017

25 янв. 2021 г.

Заметка

26 янв. 2021 г.

Заметка