WHAT IF THE 4-DAY CHART WAS THE ONLY ONE THAT EXISTED?

14 сент. 2019 г.

I've been kind of obsessed with the 4-day chart lately because of how much data it contains while still being relatively agile, compared to the weekly.

So then I got to thinking: What if, from the very beginning of Bitcoin's history, I could only use the 4-day chart and one very basic indicator - the 10 simple moving average - to trade? What if the 4-day was the only time frame Trading View provided and the 10 SMA the only indicator? What would have happened?

A very standard trading practice is to long when an asset has confirmed support on a major moving average, in the form of opening and closing a higher time frame candle above that moving average. So I checked how this very basic trading strategy would have worked inside my limited world of only the 4-day and 10SMA existing, longing every time a 4-day candle opened and closed above the 10 SMA and closing the long every time a 4-day candle closed under it, then longing again when another opened and closed above it.

What I found was pretty interesting.

The total gain was massive: 3,400% + with an average per-trade ROI of 314%, only ONE very small loss, and a couple break evens, with the loss and break evens all happening during the bear markets. Keep in mind this is not even including leverage, and all of these trades would have worked out even on pretty high leverage with reasonably distant stop losses.