ANALYSIS OF EVERY BTC HALVING

28 июн. 2022 г.

Hello everyone, I would like to present what repeatability can be determined by analyzing the BTC chart in more detail, taking into account the 3 halvings that we experienced and the 4 that are ahead.

We have a log BTC chart from 2011 to today in front of us.

We will start by designating the places where BTC performed its halving, as you can see, the first halving took place in November 2012, the second halving in June 2016, the third halving in May 2020, and we also mark the halving which should be in June 2024.

On the other hand, with white lines we will mark the middle between the halvings.

We will use the green field to mark the intervals between the edible and the second halving so that we can see this space and repeatability more clearly.



For the analysis, we will use the blue lines that represent the way btc moves, one line indicates the lowest price points and we see that btc touches the line many times, and in the same way we can mark the places where the price reached its ATH.

It is worth noting that with the first halving, btc fell by about 86% from his ATH

on the second halving he was down about 84% from his ATH

at 3 halving so far the decrease from ATH is about 74%.

The current low is at 74% where the blue line is, but BTC sometimes has a quick candlestick down which may be around 82% from ATH.



Given the repeatability between halvings, the current maximum hole should be around $ 10,500

Now we use the mean tool marked with the purple line and we can see that on each halving as the mean passes through the half of the halving period, the cane consolidates and then the price drops below our purple line.


Moving on, we can also see that after each drop below the average around the half of the halving, the price started to rebound and break the first trend marked with white line, as well as exit from the yellow area, then break the second trend and exit from the second yellow area.



So the breaking of the first trend is a period of pro-growth and the break of the second trend is a period of pro-growth followed by price increases.

Currently, we have not yet broken the first trend, taking into account the cyclical nature of btc and the fact that large capital is distributed similarly and all negative news is often already included in the price, we can assume that the situation will repeat itself. After breaking the second trend and breaking above the average, the price will start to increase again.



At the end, we present a visualization of how the btc price may possibly move in the coming time to the next halving, we mark the path on which the price can follow with the white line.

Please remember that these are not investment recommendations, everyone is responsible for their financial games, these are only our observations about the market and how the price moves.