Bitcoin Targeting Golden Ratio 0.618 at $6815

1 авг. 2018 г.

BTC Update 01.08.2018


During past two days we saw an unexpected by many Bitcoin Sell off. We lost the key support at $7600 that turned into resistance.

Yesterday we spotted a suspicious whales activity trying to form the monthly bullish engulfing candle at $7777 key level. They managed to do it but immediately after monthly close, btc saw another decline.

Now we have two scenarios and we will post our arguments for both.

1) Bullish scenario is when bitcoin finds support and bounces off the $7200-7300 levels. This is where the 0.5 fib and 55EMA lie out on the daily chart, and should produce a nice level of support. The level of resistance we just lost is the 0.382 fib and 100 MA which from now on will act as an important resistance. Bullish scenario should see a sharp impulsive wave up this week, targeting previous highs at $8300. If that breaks and bitcoin closes a daily candle above $8300 we will be targeting $10000 levels and we will be confident the bear market is closing to an end.
2) Bearish scenario that we find more likely to happen at this point - Resistance level at $7580 acts as a resistance and starting point for opening new short positions. Last few weeks we didnt notice any new money come into the crypto market. Most of the money were flowing from alts into bitcoin thus drying out the alt market even more and leaving bitcoin without more fuel. This means buyers are now exhausted and we pretty much saw a game of the same old existing players in the market. We are still lacking new capital. Even though bitcoin cleared alot of resistances, longs were trapped at the top and now nearing liquidation. Targets for this scenario are 0.618 fib at $6815. Speculation on ETF approval only gave bears more power as we forecast that an approval on 10th of August is very unlikely to happen.

As indicated on the chart if bearish scenario is in play then bitcoin might be targeting again sub $6000 levels. The bottom of this channel we drew lies between $4800 and $5000 levels where we should be heading. Buys for long term holding of Bitcoin should be placed in this area up to $6000 mark. Trade safe!

Our Alt recommendation in BAT is still in play as it has very strong fundamentals behind the TA analysis.

Good luck!