Bearish scenario
Bitcoin has been making lower lows and lower highs steadily since June 6th, as it cascades downward in a broadening wedge (blue trendlines). PA peaks within the wedge nearly touch the upper trendline until the last peak (yellow arrow) which left a gap of about $1,364 , a sign of weakness. Bears took advantage and BTC fell sharply to the wedge support. Then bulls placed their bets on a recovery wave where bears began guarding an additional broadening wedge within the original wedge.
Now the second wedge is being hotly contested over the last several days. This second wedge had it's start as a failed corrective move which broke pattern by failing to produce a comparable peak near the upper trend line, but instead stopped midway up the wedge. Another sign of weakness.
BTC has been sliding slowly but steadily downward for almost 5 months, long enough that the 1 day (50) EMA death crossed the (200)EMA. And now on the Weekly TF, the (7) EMA is threatening to death cross the (25) EMA, which for me signals a change in momentum to the downside.
What's next?
I expect the second wedge to continue it's path toward the bottom trendline within the larger descending broadening wedge. And although a descending broadening wedge has a high probability of breaking to the upside, I would bet that this one will brake down, but I would wait for confirmation of direction.
While nobody really knows for sure how far down BTC will actually go or if the bull run is still alive. But I think a conservative estimate would be at least a revisit of 48.8K as we are still inside the descending wedge that that price level occurred within.
Let me know what you think. Happy trading and good luck!
Now the second wedge is being hotly contested over the last several days. This second wedge had it's start as a failed corrective move which broke pattern by failing to produce a comparable peak near the upper trend line, but instead stopped midway up the wedge. Another sign of weakness.
BTC has been sliding slowly but steadily downward for almost 5 months, long enough that the 1 day (50) EMA death crossed the (200)EMA. And now on the Weekly TF, the (7) EMA is threatening to death cross the (25) EMA, which for me signals a change in momentum to the downside.
What's next?
I expect the second wedge to continue it's path toward the bottom trendline within the larger descending broadening wedge. And although a descending broadening wedge has a high probability of breaking to the upside, I would bet that this one will brake down, but I would wait for confirmation of direction.
While nobody really knows for sure how far down BTC will actually go or if the bull run is still alive. But I think a conservative estimate would be at least a revisit of 48.8K as we are still inside the descending wedge that that price level occurred within.
Let me know what you think. Happy trading and good luck!
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As you can see above, after BTC broke DOWN out of the rising wedge (orange trend lines) it touched support then came up and briefly pierced back into the wedge before rejecting and falling. This looks like it flipped the lower trend line of the wedge into resistance. Shall we have another retest of this resistance before everyone else is convinced? Perhaps, but I won't hold my breath, I think we've seen enough to make a compelling bearish predictions. 
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