Bitcoin (BTC) - don't sell your house... just yet!

9 мая 2018 г.

The small uptrend we are seeing now in BTC is just a corrective wave B, according to my analysis.

It should bring us into 9,5k - 9,6k territory (or higher, if some FOMO kicks in), and then I expect to see a C wave down.

What are the targets?

1.) If we get a very bullish correction, we could put in a double bottom at around 9k.

2.) More likely is a deeper drop somewhere between the 0.382 and 0.5 Fib-levels, between 8,3k - 8,7k.

3.) Also possible, but hopefully will not happen, is a retracement to 7,9k or even lower.

Only if we retrace lower than 6,640 $ we would be in real trouble, since that would indicate a wave failure, and further corrections (= continuation of the bear market). Let's hope that it does not come to that - but also, let's be prepared for the possibility.

Good luck!

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9 мая 2018 г.

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If my analysis is correct, we will actually form a classic Head & Shoulders pattern, which I'm sure many analysts who don't use Elliott wave theory will be eager to point out, soon.



They can then trade the brakeout from the neckline, while we can sell at the high of wave B, as soon as we see that this analyis might be correct.

10 мая 2018 г.

Сделка активна

Wow, that was an incredible crappy B wave, if it's already completed - but maybe it was just the half of it yet.

11 мая 2018 г.

Заметка

Looks like this was B indeed. Now let's see how far down we go.

11 мая 2018 г.

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Well well, looks like the real "fun" started.

That B wave looks very strange indeed, but let's assume that it was a valid B wave for now.

If wave C will have the same length as A, then our target is around 8,370$.



Mind you, C can extend way over that, but it can also be truncated - so be careful.

11 мая 2018 г.

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We are getting closer and closer to my target.

If we get down there, it's very like that we will touch the 50% Fib-level, which is at 8,300$.

11 мая 2018 г.

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*very likely

11 мая 2018 г.

Сделка закрыта: достигнута тейк-профит цена

My target is reached, hopefully we will get a bounce from 8,3k.

Otherwise next stop is 7,9k.

12 мая 2018 г.

Заметка

I believe that this correction is done, but of course you can never be sure with BTC.

It can always dump more than you think.

12 мая 2018 г.

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And finally the bigger picture:

13 мая 2018 г.

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BTC has formed a nice triangle, which often appear at the end of C waves.
We are breaking out of it just as I write this.