This is a possible accumulation scenario for Bitcoin. Checkout my accumulation idea to see my detailed opinions about all of this.
Disclaimer: I'm bearish about Bitcoin at the moment.
Disclaimer: I'm bearish about Bitcoin at the moment.
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We have to get that downside liquidity imo. If we don't, I would expect bleed along the wedge. Possible to go until we make that potential spring or even further.
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Some people wait for 12k 13k etc. I understand the arguments but this is probably the most important pattern for BTC right now. If this fails, I'd say we go to 10k quickly.
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There is an interesting correlation with TOTAL chart. TOTAL chart has a clear descending triangle. That is bearish. But you can also see BTC's falling wedge there.
What does it mean? If the market will be saved, Bitcoin will save it. Bitcoin will say "Hey guys, no we are not bearish. Look how I pump right now." That means bullish BTC.D for a long time.
What does it mean? If the market will be saved, Bitcoin will save it. Bitcoin will say "Hey guys, no we are not bearish. Look how I pump right now." That means bullish BTC.D for a long time.
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BTC -25%, ETH 50% from here? Is it too crazy to think?
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It's gonna end badly, if we do it this way.
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What could happen when you do it this way?
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If we do it this way, my trade is simple. I keep DCA'ing into shorts. Until I see a good counter argument.
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Another view.
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I don't wanna be bullish short-term, bearish long-term. But feels like Bitcoin will force me to.
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Ok my plan is set. Build short up to 32k.
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If this is it, I already have alt shorts. Else, I'll have a BTC short as well.
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This is sign of weakness for me. Two big short levels.
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Basically short every 1k starting 20.400 :D Interesting.
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Feels like I'll be the last bear in town by the end the month haha
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What's your bullish argument about this thing? That's the only question I'm interested right now.
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By the way data is not bullish. Not at all. US has a lot of problems ahead. And they can't fix it by printing more. They have to crash it first.
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Just don't get excited without breaking 25.500. That's all i'm saying.
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Look at this on the monthly and tell me it's nonsense. Please :D
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Covid dip
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This falling wedge did not construct enough confidence. Lows will be run and real move will start there in the best case. Worst case is really bad.
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This rally has destroyed bears emotionally. I can't see it above 25k. I'm exceeding my all time leverage records. BTC position started good so far. 21.340 average.
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I'm actually thinking 22k is a very good turning point. A narrow distribution range from here. Like Bart. We will see.
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My current account leverage is 3x. I can add collateral but I don't trust the market. Stables. And exchanges. I don't wanna go above 5x so I will trade this on the way down too. We will see.
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Where the song starts
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I mean if this gets more ridiculous in the near time, I would DEFINITELY prefer getting liquidated and be out of the market until I see the right conditions to enter again. I believe in retrospect, we will look at this and say "An extraordinary pull-back for an extraordinary bear market".
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When it does this, all you can do is just pray that the next thing won't be a bear flag.
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Let me tell you this much. We have the arguments as bears, they have the hype and lies. No matter how long irrationality goes on in this style. It will not end good. Come back to SC accumulate and go. Make a new low accumulate and go. But not like this.
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This might be a bottom. 16k is not.
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Where is the trend? Not even a parabolic trend. What's the argument for any timeframe lower than weekly? Even the accumulation argument is weak. No consolidation. No significant volume. Just short squeeze.
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The only thing I am long right now is dollar. If you think FED will let USD be a garbage, without a fight, good luck.
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Nice yearly wick.
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No TA markup. No TA markdown.
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They need the money real quick guys. Give it.
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Here is a realistic bear market bottom. Real bottoms are formed with patience. Not hype.
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If it can get in this channel. We will most likely see 33k target hit. I have alarms to take hedge longs in that case.
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Don't hate different views.
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I'm trying to show what a real spring looks like with different options.
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Even the FED's probability shows that a recession is very likely. More likely than 2008. And it will probably be worse. Stock market never bottomed before the recession. It's gonna be the FIRST recession of Bitcoin. We don't know what it will do!
www.newyorkfed.org/r...apital_markets/ycfaq
www.newyorkfed.org/r...apital_markets/ycfaq
Breaks down -> We go down.
Breaks up -> We go up.
I'm saying "almost no bias". Because falling wedges are statistically bullish. So I'm SLIGHTLY bullish about it.
I have some doubts about bigger picture of Bitcoin. 14k also means 0.5 correction of the last bull market. See for details: