infection2020.com/
Coronavirus doubles every 2-3 days. Death to recovery ratio is about 11/88, or ~13%. Seems strange, right?
Analysis:
Death is a lagging indicator. If you get corona, do you get sick right away? No. If you are dying from it, are you dead right away? No.
Assume 1 week incubation and 2-3 weeks before death. When you look at the number of infections and number of deaths, the deaths you are looking at are from the number of infections that were detected 1-2 weeks ago.
Estimates about low coronavirus fatality rates seem to be under-exaggerated, but why? It may be that people who are silent carriers express no symptoms and equality, are less pre-disposed to fatal effects. The statement can then be revised: of the currently detected coronavirus cases, around ~10% are fatal, based on the death/recovery ratio and the death/week-prior incidence count.
Geographical regions may lead to a more fruitful analysis, however my conclusion remains:
The difference between a successful trader and trader is that a successful trader understands what an exponential is. The market can not price this in, consider the absence of such curve generating functions in your indicator toolkit for an insight as to why: these are rare events, and in order to analyze them you must use tools outside of traditional technical analysis.
Coronavirus doubles every 2-3 days. Death to recovery ratio is about 11/88, or ~13%. Seems strange, right?
Analysis:
Death is a lagging indicator. If you get corona, do you get sick right away? No. If you are dying from it, are you dead right away? No.
Assume 1 week incubation and 2-3 weeks before death. When you look at the number of infections and number of deaths, the deaths you are looking at are from the number of infections that were detected 1-2 weeks ago.
Estimates about low coronavirus fatality rates seem to be under-exaggerated, but why? It may be that people who are silent carriers express no symptoms and equality, are less pre-disposed to fatal effects. The statement can then be revised: of the currently detected coronavirus cases, around ~10% are fatal, based on the death/recovery ratio and the death/week-prior incidence count.
Geographical regions may lead to a more fruitful analysis, however my conclusion remains:
The difference between a successful trader and trader is that a successful trader understands what an exponential is. The market can not price this in, consider the absence of such curve generating functions in your indicator toolkit for an insight as to why: these are rare events, and in order to analyze them you must use tools outside of traditional technical analysis.